中国经济和股票市场展望（马骏.ppt

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1、中国经济和股票市场中国经济和股票市场展望（马骏展望（马骏Deutsche Bank AG概要概要 n长期经济前景长期经济前景n2009-10年经济展望：年经济展望：V+Un固定资产投资将由于政策刺激效应减弱而减速固定资产投资将由于政策刺激效应减弱而减速n出口正处在强劲回复中，但明年可能出现二次下行出口正处在强劲回复中，但明年可能出现二次下行n消费增长可持续，且多个行业可能加速增长消费增长可持续，且多个行业可能加速增长n2010宏观经济的最大风险：过热抑或滞胀？宏观经济的最大风险：过热抑或滞胀？n政府退出扩张性政策的路径政府退出扩张性政策的路径n股票市场投资策略股票市场投资策略Jun Ma (8

2、52)2203 8308, August 2009 page 2Deutsche Bank AG 我们预测中国的名义我们预测中国的名义GDP将在将在10年内超过美国，早于我们两年内超过美国，早于我们两年前的预计年前的预计Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 3Deutsche Bank AG人民币将成为一种全球储备货币人民币将成为一种全球储备货币 意味着它需要在中期稳定意味着它需要在中期稳定升值升值 nChina announced the plan to build an international financial center in Shan

3、ghai by 2020 implies that RMB will likely become convertible within 10 years nChina has obviously signaled its desire to make the RMB a regional and eventually global reserve currency.Recent efforts includeRMB settlement in trade between China and Hong KongCurrency swaps arrangements with HK,Korea,I

4、ndonesia,Malaysia,Belarus,and ArgentinanAn important condition for the RMB to become a reserve currency is that in the run up to that status,the RMB needs to be steadily appreciating in order to gain credibility among global FX reserve managers.Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 4Deutsche Bank

5、 AG长期来看，中国更高的生产率增长可支持人民币对美元每年长期来看，中国更高的生产率增长可支持人民币对美元每年3 5%的升值的升值 nChinas total factor productivity growth is 5ppts higher than that in the US,which allows China to steady appreciate its currency without losing competitiveness.nInternational experience also supports this trend Jun Ma (852)2203 8308,

6、 October 2009 page 5Deutsche Bank AG长期来看，哪些行业最有可能超越长期来看，哪些行业最有可能超越16%的美元计价名义的美元计价名义GDP增长？增长？n医疗医疗:We estimate that Chinas health care spending will grow at 1.3 times GDP growth in next ten years.This implies nearly 20%annual average growth in USD terms.Drug distribution is especially impressive in g

7、rowth potential.n装备制造装备制造(power,medical,telco,shipbuilding,auto,auto parts):to gain 20%world market share from the current single digit levels.n新能源新能源Nuclear,Wind,Solar,Natural gas,Hybrid car batteries n城市轨道交通城市轨道交通:China has 100 cities that need to build subways,and each of them is larger than Sing

8、apore.n较世界平均水平发展程度较低的消费品和服务较世界平均水平发展程度较低的消费品和服务Diaper,packaging,online travel,juice,etc.Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 6Deutsche Bank AG中期宏观经济前景Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 7Deutsche Bank AG GDP环比增速二次下行的理论与实证依据环比增速二次下行的理论与实证依据Policy StimulusSource:Deutsche Bank.nDuring crises,f

9、rontloaded policy stimulus tends to generate an inverted V shape impact on economic growth.It occurred in 98-99 and will repeat in this round of economic recovery Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 8Deutsche Bank AG2009-10环比和同比环比和同比GDP预测预测nFollowing the first dip in Q4 08,qoq(saar)growth surge

10、d to 18%in Q2.After a second dip to 12%in Q3 09,it is entering a relatively narrow range of 7-10%growth.2010 will therefore by much less exciting due to a decline in growth volatility.We expect the final qoq recovery in Q4 next year,when manufacturers begin to accelerate investment.nNote that market

11、s tend to react to qoq growth changes,rather than yoy.Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 9Deutsche Bank AG“V+U”形的经济恢复及其市场含义形的经济恢复及其市场含义A few market implications:(1)the second trough is not as low as the first one,so the kind of market crash seen in Oct 2008 is unlikely to recur;(2)the duration

12、 of second dip is longer,which suggests a range bound market for a large part of 2010;(3)as sequential growth in the US is accelerating at a stronger pace than China now,the China market will likely underperform other Asia markets which are more leveraged to US recovery in the near term.Jun Ma (852)

13、2203 8308, October 2009 page 10Deutsche Bank AG德银宏观经济预测德银宏观经济预测Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 11Deutsche Bank AG固定资产投资前景Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 12Deutsche Bank AG环比来看，项目审批、信贷和项目开工都已见顶环比来看，项目审批、信贷和项目开工都已见顶nBy design,most centrally-sponsored stimulus projects should have sta

14、rted this year.New lending peaked in Q1 this year.Project new starts peaked in Q2 this year.Qoq(saar)FAI growth peaked in H1 at 85%,and fell to 10%in Q3.Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 13Deutsche Bank AG政府推动的固定资产投资同比增速将可能从目前的政府推动的固定资产投资同比增速将可能从目前的60%左右降左右降到明年下半年的到明年下半年的10%左右左右Jun Ma (852)22

15、03 8308, October 2009 page 14Deutsche Bank AG固定资产投资分类固定资产投资分类Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 15Deutsche Bank AG产能过剩要求企业削减资本性开支产能过剩要求企业削减资本性开支nManufacturing/mining FAI has slowed from June this year,reflecting the need to absorb overcapacity nGovt is now restricting new projects in overcapac

16、ity sectors,which account for 8%of total FAI.Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 16Deutsche Bank AG房地产投资增速虽高，仅可抵去政府推动投资减速的一半房地产投资增速虽高，仅可抵去政府推动投资减速的一半Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 17Deutsche Bank AG出口前景Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 18Deutsche Bank AG出口同比增速可能年内返正，明年上半年继续攀升出口

17、同比增速可能年内返正，明年上半年继续攀升Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 19Deutsche Bank AG出口恢复快于预期，但之后或又有反复出口恢复快于预期，但之后或又有反复Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 20Deutsche Bank AG我们认为出口强劲恢复的理由我们认为出口强劲恢复的理由nFor each 1ppt rise in G3 GDP,Chinese export growth recovers by 7ppts.We expect US GDP growth to recov

18、ery 6ppts within next 12 months.For next 3 quarters,the US economy will likely experience a V shape recovery,due to:nnormalization of inventory-if every company increases inventory from 2 weeks to 2 months,it would lead to 12%GDP growth!nnormalization of auto sales-as long as auto sales recover to r

19、eplacement demand level,auto sales will rise 25%;nif housing starts return to household formation level(#of new households per yr),it requires 20%increase in housing starts per yr in next 4 yrs.nWe think Chinas export recovery will be more front-loaded than market expectations.We expect another 18pp

20、ts rise in yoy export growth just in next three months.Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 21Deutsche Bank AG中美新订单指数的对比显示中美新订单指数的对比显示,美国需求恢复环比速度目前比中美国需求恢复环比速度目前比中国更强国更强Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 22Deutsche Bank AG但从市场来看，由于出口恢复早于预期，明年开始恐难再成为但从市场来看，由于出口恢复早于预期，明年开始恐难再成为重大利好重大利好Jun Ma

21、 (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 23Deutsche Bank AG将目光从周期性行业转向可持续增长行业Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 24Deutsche Bank AG实体经济中出口增速的变化在未来实体经济中出口增速的变化在未来2-3个季度内表现仍将好于个季度内表现仍将好于固定资产投资固定资产投资nWe expect export growth to rally by 35ppts between q2 this year and q2 next year,while FAI growth to slo

22、w by about 20ppts.This suggests a pair trade between export-related sectors against construction materials.nThis divergence is almost identical to 1999,when exports rallied together with a plunge in FAI growth,following the perk of stimulus.nThis pair trade may have another 3 months to runJun Ma (85

23、2)2203 8308, October 2009 page 25Deutsche Bank AG出口行业的相关企业出口行业的相关企业Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 26Deutsche Bank AG偏重出口的韩国市场很可能表现由于偏重投资的中国市场偏重出口的韩国市场很可能表现由于偏重投资的中国市场Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 27Deutsche Bank AG下一个重要的投资主题：转向消费领域的可持续增长下一个重要的投资主题：转向消费领域的可持续增长Note:see p.30 for t

24、he constituents of the“sustainability basket”Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 28Deutsche Bank AG部分消费行业的增长受益于消费趋势的结构性变化部分消费行业的增长受益于消费趋势的结构性变化 nPackagingnOnline travelnDiapernMedical equipmentnMotorcyclenLife insurancenJuicenDrug distributionnPC distribution Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009

25、 page 29Deutsche Bank AG相对世界相对世界/发达国家发达国家,发展程度较低的消费商品和服务尤值关注发展程度较低的消费商品和服务尤值关注Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 30Deutsche Bank AG我们选择的我们选择的“可持续消费增长可持续消费增长”投资组合投资组合Representative companies in sectors with“sustainable growth”Representative companies in sectors with“sustainable growth”Source:De

26、utsche Bank,Bloomberg,WindNote:1.Average PE and EPS calculated as the simple average of the constituents;average PEG is calculated as average PE/average EPS CAGR;2 For non-rated stocks,we use market consensus estimates for revenue growth calculation.Also,these stocks are not covered by Deutsche Bank

27、s fundamental research and consequently we make no representation to the quality of the business,assets or managementJun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 31Deutsche Bank AG与与“消费减速消费减速”投资组合作对冲投资投资组合作对冲投资Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 32Deutsche Bank AG通胀与货币政策前景Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, Oct

28、ober 2009 page 33Deutsche Bank AG我们预期我们预期CPI明年年中可能接近明年年中可能接近4%ForecastJun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 34Deutsche Bank AG目前目前30%的的M2增长，将滞后增长，将滞后12个月传导到个月传导到CPInChinas M2 growth is 3 times that in the US and other major countriesnM2 growth is now 24ppts higher than nominal GDP growth in China

29、 Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 35Deutsche Bank AG产能过剩就不会发生通胀了吗？产能过剩就不会发生通胀了吗？nOvercapacity may restrain inflation of manufactured goods,but the majority of Chinas CPI basket(71%)are non-manufacturing and are more subject to cost push inflation.The latter can be driven by speculative deman

30、d due to excess liquidity(e.g.,oil,soft commodities,copper,property,etc)nCost push inflation is perfectly possible even when capacity utilization is falling Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 36Deutsche Bank AG房屋和食品的通胀与工业产能无关房屋和食品的通胀与工业产能无关nHousing prices were up for past six months,and will t

31、ransmit to imputed rentals(part of CPI)with a lag of 4 monthsnOil prices have a stronger-than-expected correlation with food prices,and could become a potential driver for food inflation.nPPI was up on mom basis for five months Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 37Deutsche Bank AG中期（中期（2010年年2

32、季度到季度到2011年年2季度）的宏观经济风险：过热季度）的宏观经济风险：过热还是滞胀还是滞胀?1.Scenario I(base case:40%probability):yoy GDP growth at around 8-9%,inflation at around 3%loan and FAI growth has slowed significantly as new project starts decline and old projects are getting finished.Food and commodity prices are steady.2.Scenario

33、III(overheating:25%probability):GDP at 11-12%,inflation above 4%and risinginflation due to continued strong FAI and lending growth.But eventually lead to massive policy tightening.Abrupt market reactions:from bubbles to bursting.3.Scenario II(stagflation:20%probability):GDP growth falling below 8%,i

34、nflation rising to 4%and uptrend continuing inflation rising due to food price increases,speculative buying of commodities leading to PPI and then CPI increase.Very negative for equity market.4.Scenario IV(high growth,no inflation,15%probability).10%GDP growth,CPI below 2%monetary expansion does not

35、 transmit to inflation(historical transmission breaks down).Weather and commodities prices behave well.Best for equity.Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 38Deutsche Bank AG何时和如何退出扩张性政策？Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 39Deutsche Bank AG政府退出扩张性政策的可能路径政府退出扩张性政策的可能路径nQ3-Q4 2009:“Fine tuni

36、ng”of monetary and credit policy involving PBOC bills,window guidance,tighter policy on second home mortgages,tighter project approval for sectors with overcapacitynEnd-December 2009:M2 growth target likely to be set at 16-17%for 2010,vs 27%for 2009.Fiscal policy tone may remain“proactive”but defici

37、t will unlikely exceed the 2009 level.nMarch 2010:NPC to approve the new budget with no more increase in deficit.Govt capex growth will likely slow to 10-20%in 2009 from 80%in 2009.nFrom Q2 2010:rate hikes likely,when inflation exceeds 3%nQ2 2010:RMB spot rate will likely resume appreciation,as expo

38、rt growth exceeds 15%and inflation rises to an uncomfortable level.Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 40Deutsche Bank AG贷款增长将从今年的贷款增长将从今年的34%降到明年的降到明年的17%Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 41Deutsche Bank AG明年明年2季度季度CPI上升到上升到3%左右时将引发加息压力左右时将引发加息压力Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page

39、42Deutsche Bank AG对经济过热的担心可能使得明年对经济过热的担心可能使得明年2季度成为加息的好时机季度成为加息的好时机Overheating concernStagflation concernJun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 43Deutsche Bank AG通胀及其政策反应对市场的影响通胀及其政策反应对市场的影响nPotential Victim#1:Property nMortgage demand is most sensitive to rate hikesnProperty companies are highly

40、leveragednPotential Victim#2:Oil reining,IPPs,and F&B processingnWhen CPI inflation rises to 4%,the government tends to exercise price intervention,which will depress marginnBanking?nImpact on NIM depends on how asymmetric the rate hikes will benMacro sentiment tends to suffer as there will be growi

41、ng fear of overheating or stagflationnBeneficiariesnInsurance,soft commodities,retailers,and airlinesJun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 44Deutsche Bank AG明年政策重心将转向消费明年政策重心将转向消费Size of 2010 stimulus will be smallerNew stimulus will be much less investment focused State Council said recently tha

42、t we“should stimulate domestic demand especially consumer demand,and keep investment growth steady”New stimulus will have to be more focused on social welfare and consumption,and technologyProposals made include using tax policy,consumer coupons,and govt investments to stimulateTravel consumptionSpo

43、rts activitiesCultural and entertainment activitiesMilk consumptionWine consumptionCredit cardAlternative energyIncentives for R&D and upgrading Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 45Deutsche Bank AG人民币可能从明年人民币可能从明年2季度起恢复升值季度起恢复升值nBy Q2 2001,we expect export growth will exceed 15%yoy,and should

44、 eliminate the most important reason that led to the early decision to stop RMB appreciationnGlobal political pressure for RMB appreciation has intensified recentlynInflation of 3-4%will provide another argument for using RMB appreciation to contain imported inflationnWe expect RMB spot rate to resu

45、me appreciation from Q2 next year,at an annualized pace of 4%per yearnRMB NDF should start reflect the appreciation trend earlier nAirlines are the biggest beneficiaries of RMB appreciation Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 46Deutsche Bank AG投资策略Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 47Deut

46、sche Bank AG德银的市场估指和每股盈利预测德银的市场估指和每股盈利预测Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 48Deutsche Bank AG nWe expect China to continue to underperform other Asian markets which are more driven by the US recovery in the coming months.nOn Chinas market indices per se,we see upside in the next 3-5 months,as

47、in the initial stage of inflation corporates tend to be net beneficiaries.However,we believe the macro environment from 2Q next year will become more challenging.Key risks include stagflation,asymmetric rate hike,price control,and US second dip.nOn sectors,we stay overweight on export-related sector

48、s for another 2-3 months.We think insurance,consumer and technology sectors will offer more sustainable upside for next yr.We continue to dislike selected FAI-related names such as steel in the short term.On property,we will begin to worry about overcapacity and potential rate hikes from Q2.On banks

49、,we are positive in the coming few months,but from late Q1 to Q3 next year,it will likely be a trading market on changing rate hike patterns.Risks on policy-led margin squeeze for oil refining and power will intensify from Q1 next yr.股票市场前景和投资策略股票市场前景和投资策略Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 49D

50、eutsche Bank AG首选股票首选股票Jun Ma (852)2203 8308, October 2009 page 50Deutsche Bank AGAppendix 1Important DisclosuresAdditional Information Available upon RequestFor disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary For disclosures pertaining to recommendat