金融市场课程说明中英文.doc

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1、金融市场课程说明的翻译在耶鲁大学的网页（http:/en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Shiller）上，具有较详细的说明为：Financial institutions are a pillar of civilized society, supporting people in their productive ventures and managing the economic risks they take on. This course seeks to offer understanding of the multiple aspects of our fi

2、nancial methods, as they have come to us through past invention and as they are evolving towards a future where financial tools are even more integrated into our lives than they are today. The course considers the multitude of problems in a rapidly developing world economy from the viewpoint of an e

3、volving financial framework, incorporating theoretical and technical advances as they appear through time. 金融机构是文明社会的重要支柱，为投资活动提供支持及风险管理。本课程旨在从多个方面来理解现代金融的方法和工具。历史发明给社会带来金融工具，并且与时俱进走向未来，将来会更加融入人们的生活。本课程将以不断发展的金融框架观点，结合应时的理论和技术进步，对飞速发展的世界经济主要问题进行思考。This course considers existing financial markets, in

4、stitutions and methods from a number of standpoints. A broad description of the institutions we have today around the world is offered by Fabozzi, Modigliani, Jones and Ferri, Foundations of Financial Markets and Institutions. A rich description of the workings of some of those markets is offered in

5、 Siegels Stocks for the Long Run. Some of the most important unifying themes of this course are offered in my own book The New Financial Order; Risk in the 21st Century.本课程从多个角度讲解现有的各种金融市场、制度和方法（工具）。在法博齐、莫迪里阿尼、琼斯和费里的金融市场和金融机构的基础概论中，对当今世界金融机构作出了广泛的描述；西格尔的长期股票投资对各种金融市场的一些运作过程进行了丰富的阐明。本课程一些最重要的一体化主题体现在

6、希勒的专著新金融秩序：21世纪的风险。One of the themes of this course is the power that abstract financial theory offers for financial innovation. The theory gives generality to methods that might otherwise be applied only narrowly and diffidently.本课程主题之一，是抽象的金融理论为金融创新提供了动力。金融理论只是提出一般性方法，这些方法的应用可能会很有局限性。Another theme

7、 of this course is the role of invention in advancing finance. Financial tools have many working parts whose functioning is not obvious to all but the most initiated. Financial tools, like other inventions, are, once discovered, copied around the world. 本课程的另一主题，是在金融发展过程中发明的作用。金融工具有许多工作部分，各部分的功能在最开始

8、时有所显现，以后相对所有就不明显。金融工具像其他的发明一样，一旦发现了，世界各地都复制。Another theme of this course is the importance of understanding human psychology in designing and using financial tools. The developing field of behavioral finance offers many insights into the working of our financial institutions. People are not coldly r

9、ational in their financial decision making, and yet most people are able to make financial decisions that are basically productive. Dealing productively with human strengths and weaknesses has been a challenge for those who develop financial methods.本课程的另一主题，是在设计和使用金融工具时理解人类心理学的重要性。行为金融学领域的发展对金融机构的工

10、作过程提供了许多深刻的见解。人们在作出金融决策时不够冷静理性，然而大多数人都能够做出基本上是富有成效的金融决策。对于开发金融方法的研究者来说，有效地处理人性的优点和缺点，一直是个挑战。Another theme of this course is the gradual democratization of finance through time. The principles of risk management were once available only to a few, but as time goes on, to more and more people, and appl

11、ying to more and more risks that everyone faces. This democratization has been a major reason for the advance of our civilization, and will be in the future.本课程的另一个主题，是随着时间渐进的金融民主化。风险管理的原则曾经只提供给少数人，但随着时间的推移，已经面向越来越多的人，并应用到每个人都面对的越来越多的风险。金融民主化进程已经成为社会文明进步的一个主要原因，将来也如此。Another theme of this course is

12、the difficult battle against moral hazard, and the many-faceted methods that have been developed to deal with this problem. Any risk management method carries with it an array of incentives and disincentives, some of which are productive and others destructive. The design of financial tools must res

13、pond to experience with moral hazard and to our knowledge of human psychology to minimize moral hazard.本课程的另一个主题，是对道德风险的艰难斗争，已经有多种多边的方法来处理这个问题。任何风险管理方法都带有一系列的奖励和惩罚措施，其中有些是富有成效，而有些是具有破坏性的。金融工具的设计，必须应用道德风险的经验，应用人类心理学的知识，使道德风险最小化。Another theme of this course is predicting the nature of change in our fi

14、nancial system in the future in light of technical advances in areas outside of finance. Advances in information technology have been behind many of our most important financial innovations in the past, and even more rapid advances in information technology in the future will enable some fundamental

15、 improvements in our risk management.本课程的另一个主题，是预测金融体系在未来、在技术进步、在金融以外领域发生变化的性质。在过去，信息技术的进步已经应用于许多重要的金融创新；在未来，更加迅速发展的信息技术将使风险管理产生某些根本性的改善。The course offers a synopsis of financial theory, including such things as the capital asset pricing model and the theory of derivatives pricing. The course is att

16、entive to the major financial institutions and methods of our day: insurance, portfolio management, underwriting, corporate management of dividends and debt, real estate finance, monetary policy, investment banking, brokerage, consumer finance, forwards and futures, options, swaps, as well as govern

17、ment public financial institutions of taxation and social security.本课程提供了金融理论的概要，包括诸如资本资产定价模型和衍生品定价理论。重点关注现代主要金融机构和方法：保险、投资组合管理、证券包销、股息和债务的共同管理、房地产金融、货币政策、投资银行、经纪人业务、消费金融、远期和期货交易、期权、掉期、以及政府税收的公共财政机构和社会保障。对维基百科英文的翻译http:/en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_ShillerOn CNBCs How to Profit from the Real Estate

18、Boom in 2005, he noted that housing price rises could not outstrip inflation in the long term because, except for land restricted sites, house prices would tend toward building costs plus normal economic profit. Co-panelist David Lereah disagreed. In February, Lereah had put out his book Are You Mis

19、sing the Real Estate Boom? signaling the market top for housing prices. While Shiller repeated his precise timing again for another market bubble, because the general level of nationwide residential real estate prices do not reveal themselves until after a lag of about one year, people did not belie

20、ve Shiller had called another top until late 2006 and early 2007.2005年，在CNBC（美国全国广播公司财经频道）的“如何从繁荣的房地产中获取利润”专题中，希勒指出，从长远来看，上涨的房价不可能会超过通货膨胀，因为，除了受限制的地块，一般房价会趋向于建筑成本加上正常的经济利润。同时参加专题的嘉宾大卫.乐仁不同意希勒的观点。在大卫.乐仁刚出版的新书你是否错过了房地产的繁荣?中，就提到了房价的高端市场。虽然希勒重申他所指的是又一个市场泡沫，但是，由于全国住宅房价的一般水准并不显示出真实价格，一般都滞后约一年，因此人们不相信希勒的推论

21、。到了2006年底和2007年初，事实证明了希勒是对的。In 2003 Shiller co-authored a Brookings paper, Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?. Shiller subsequently refined his position in the 2nd edition of Irrational Exuberance (2005), acknowledging that “ further rises in the stock and housing markets could lead, eventuall

22、y, to even more significant declines A long-run consequence could be a decline in consumer and business confidence, and another, possibly worldwide, recession. This extreme outcome is not inevitable, but it is a much more serious risk than is widely acknowledged.” Writing in the Wall Street Journal

23、in August 2006, Shiller again warned that there is significant risk of a very bad period, with slow sales, slim commissions, falling prices, rising default and foreclosures, serious trouble in financial markets, and a possible recession sooner than most of us expected.”6 In September 2007, almost ex

24、actly one year before the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Shiller wrote an article in which he predicted an imminent collapse in the US housing market, and subsequent financial panic.7在2003年，希勒与布鲁金斯合作曾发表过论文是否存在楼市泡沫?。后来，他在非理性繁荣第二版（2005年）中进一步确认，“进一步上涨的（股票和住房）市场最终可能造成更大幅度的下降，由此形成的一个长期后果将是商家和消费者的信心下降，并将在全球

25、范围内形成经济衰退。这种极端的结果不是不可避免，但这是比被广泛承认而更加严重的风险”。2006年8月，希勒在华尔街日报撰文再次警告说，“将会出现具有重大风险的非常糟糕时期：销售滞缓；薪金减少；物价下跌；违约和止赎增多；金融市场形成严重的麻烦；可能的经济衰退比大多数人预期的来得更早”。2007年9月，距雷曼兄弟公司倒闭之前差不多一年，希勒写了一篇文章，他预测美国住房市场即将到来的崩溃，以及随后的金融恐慌。Robert Shiller was awarded the Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics in 2009 for his pioneer

26、ing research in the field of financial economics, relating to the dynamics of asset prices, such as fixed income, equities, and real estate, and their metrics. His work has been influential in the development of the theory as well as its implications for practice and policy-making. His contributions

27、 on risk sharing, financial market volatility, bubbles and crises, have received widespread attention among academics, practitioners and policy makers alike.8 In 2010, he was named by Foreign Policy magazine to its list of top global thinkers.92009年，罗伯特希勒被授予德意志银行的金融经济学奖，表彰他在金融经济学领域的开创性研究，涉及到动态资产价格，如

28、固定收益、股票、房地产及其度量。希勒的研究成果不仅促进了理论发展，同时也应用在实践和政策制定之中。希勒在风险分担、金融市场波动、泡沫和危机等方面的成果，已经引起学者、实业者和政策制定者等的广泛关注。在2010年,希勒被外交政策杂志列入全球顶尖思想家之中。Robert Shillers plot of the S&P Composite Real Price Index, Earnings, Dividends, and Interest Rates, from Irrational Exuberance, 2d ed.10 In the preface to this edition, Shi

29、ller warns that the stock market has not come down to historical levels: the price-earnings ratio as I define it in this book is still, at this writing 2005, in the mid-20s, far higher than the historical average. People still place too much confidence in the markets and have too strong a belief tha

30、t paying attention to the gyrations in their investments will someday make them rich, and so they do not make conservative preparations for possible bad outcomes.罗伯特希勒的一张图表，说明标普复合实际价格指数、收益、股息和利息的变化轨迹。该图摘自非理性繁荣第2 版。在第二版的前言，希勒警告说,“股票市场已经回不到历史上的市盈率水平。这是本书所定义的是20世纪中期市盈率水平，即使到了写此文2005年的时候，都是远远高于历史平均水平。人们

31、仍然过于相信市场，过于相信他们的投资回转能力，相信总有一天会让他们富裕起来，所以人们并不会有保守思想的心理-那就是，可能会是糟糕的结果”。Price-earnings ratios as a predictor of twenty-year returns based on the plot by Robert Shiller (Figure 10.1,12 source). The horizontal axis shows the real price-earnings ratio of the S&P Composite Stock Price Index as computed in

32、Irrational Exuberance (inflation adjusted price divided by the prior ten-year mean of inflation-adjusted earnings). The vertical axis shows the geometric average real annual return on investing in the S&P Composite Stock Price Index, reinvesting dividends, and selling twenty years later. Data from d

33、ifferent twenty year periods is color-coded as shown in the key. See also ten-year returns. Shiller states that this plot confirms that long-term investorsinvestors who commit their money to an investment for ten full yearsdid do well when prices were low relative to earnings at the beginning of the

34、 ten years. Long-term investors would be well advised, individually, to lower their exposure to the stock market when it is high, as it has been recently, and get into the market when it is low.市盈率是罗伯特希勒根据图中描绘出20年的预测值（摘自非理性繁荣的图10.1）。横轴表示通过标准普尔综合股价指数计算出来的实际市盈率（通胀调整后的价格除以前十年平均通胀调整后的收入）。纵轴表示几何平均实际年回报率，这是投资标准普尔综合股价指数，而且股息连投，并在20年以后才出售。图中以不同颜色表示每二十年时间周期的数据，同时也可参比十年的收益。希勒指出，这张图“证实了长期投资者的确做得好，这里所说的长期投资者是指把资金做投资整十年的投资者。当在十年周期的起始阶段，定价相对低于市盈率。当市盈率较高时，应该各自向长期投资者建议，要降低进入股市风险；而像最近，市盈率较低，应该建议长期投资者进入市场。”