电力市场.pdf

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1、 OECD/IEA 2012 OECD/IEA 2012 Electricity markets Opening up to competition and investments Lars Dittmar(TU Berlin),Dennis Volk&Matthew Wittenstein (IEA)IEA Energy Training Week Paris,10.04.14 OECD/IEA 2012 OECD/IEA 2012 Why again did electricity matter?02040608010012014005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000

2、3,5004,0004,5001980199020002010GDPPower demandUS GDP and power demand growthGDPPower demand OECD/IEA 2012 Electricity is primarily a wealth creator OECD/IEA 2012 Electricity increases our productivity 50 watt 2000 watt OECD/IEA 2012 Global power investment needs 45%of ESI Power sector investments un

3、til 2035(WEO/NPS)16,867 bn USD 43%for grids 05001,0001,500GenerationGridsbn USDUS0100200300400500GenerationGridsbn USDLatin America0100200300400500GenerationGridsbn USDAfrica05001,0001,5002,000GenerationGridsbn USDOECD Europe2,5003,0003,5004,000GenerationGridsbn USDAsia0200400600800GenerationGridsbn

4、 USDOECD Asia Oceania OECD/IEA 2012 THE CONTEXT It is relevant to identify development scenarios,but what can we actually do today?Lars Dittmar|8 Categories of costs in power production and their relevance to Operation Decommissioning Expansion Costs dependent on Capacity USD/MWel Capital Costs P P

5、Labor Costs P P P P Fixed Operation&Maintenance P P P P Costs dependent on operation USD/MWhel Fuel costs P P P P P P Other variable costs(e.g.CO2)P P P P P P Lars Dittmar|9 Stylized Load Curve and Load Duration Curve 1 2 4 3 Pmax Pmin Load Curve PMW Time of day 4 1 Load Duration Curve 2+3 PMW Cumul

6、ative hours Lars Dittmar|10 Short-term Marginal Generation Costs Where:G =Generation unit index STMGC(G)=Short-term marginal generation costs USD/MWhel Fuel Price(G)=Fuel Price USD/MWhtherm Eta(G)=Efficiency -O&MVariable =Variable O&M costs USD/MWhel EFCO2 =Emission factor CO2 t CO2/MWhtherm PCO2 =C

7、O2 USD/tCO2 22 Pr()()&()()()COVariableCOEFFuelice GSTMC GOMGPEta GEta GLars Dittmar|11 Long-term Marginal Generation Costs Where:G =Generation unit index LTMGC(G)=Long-term Marginal Generation Costs USD/MWhel O&MFixed=Fixed O&M costs USD/MW/a Investment(G)=Investment cost USD/MW Load factor(G)=Full

8、Load Hours h STMGC(G)=Short-term marginal generation costs =Capital recovery factor(rule of thumb10%)()&()()()Load factor(G)FixedInvestment GOMGLTMC GSTMC GLars Dittmar|12 Long-term Marginal Generation Costs(just an orientation)05010015020025030035040045050002000400060008000USD/MWhelFull load hoursN

9、uclearHard coalCCGT-GasOCGT-GasLars Dittmar|13 Screening Curve Method:Annual Costs Where:G =Generation unit AC(G)=Annual Costs USD/MW/a O&MFixed(G)=Fixed O&M costs USD/MW Invest(G)=Investment cost USD/MW T(G)=Full Load Hours h STMC(G)=Short-term marginal generation costs USD/MWhel =Capital recovery

10、factor(rule of thumb 10%)()()()&()()()FixedAC GInvest GGOMGSTMC GT GIntercept Slope Lars Dittmar|14 Linear Screening Curves Annual Cost USD/MW/a Full load hours Intercept:Tech 1 Intercept:Tech 2 Tech1 Tech2 Lars Dittmar|15 Linear Screening Curves:Sensitivities Annual Cost USD/MW/a Full load hours(1)

11、Higher interest rates,increasing capital cost or both alter the intercept (1)(2)(2)Changes in fuel prices,CO2 prices or both alter the slope Lars Dittmar|16 Linear Screening Curves and Load Duration Curve Annual Cost USD/MW/a Load Demand Hours per Year Tech2 Tech1 Lars Dittmar|17 Screening Curve Met

12、hod:Example I 010020030040050060070080002000400060008000USD/kW/aNuclearHard coalCCGT-GasOCGT-GasSheddingLars Dittmar|18 Screening Curve Method:Example II Hard coal to NuclearCCGT-Gas to Hard coalOCGT-Gas to CCGT-GasShedding to OCGT-Gas010020030040050060070080002000400060008000USD/kW/aNuclearHard coa

13、lCCGT-GasOCGT-GasSheddingMin Costs OECD/IEA 2012 Many technologies available,which one to use?0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Onshore Wind Gas-OCGT Gas-CCGT Hard coal Nuclear Solar PV USD/MWh US-status quo Investment Fuel O&M CO2 Decommissioning -2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 -20 40 60 80 100 120 140 16

14、0 Jan-03 Jun-03 Nov-03 Apr-04 Sep-04 Feb-05 Jul-05 Dec-05 May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 Gas price(USD/MBtu)Coal price(USD/t)US Coal Appalachian (Monthly Average)Henry Hub(Monthly Average)0 20 40 60 80 100

15、 120 140 160 180 200 Onshore Wind Gas-OCGT Gas-CCGT Hard coal Nuclear Solar PV USD/MWh US-status quo Investment Fuel O&M CO2 Decommissioning 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Onshore Wind Gas-OCGT Gas-CCGT Hard coal Nuclear Solar PV USD/MWh US-high gas Investment Fuel O&M CO2 Decommissioning+15

16、USD/MWh+10 USD/MWh 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Onshore Wind Gas-OCGT Gas-CCGT Hard coal Nuclear Solar PV USD/MWh EU-status quo Investment Fuel O&M CO2 Decommissioning+10 USD/MWh+7 USD/MWh 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Onshore Wind Gas-OCGT Gas-CCGT Hard coal Nuclear Solar PV USD/MW

17、h EU-low risk Investment Fuel O&M CO2 Decommissioning-33 USD/MWh-56 USD/MWh-71 USD/MWh OECD/IEA 2012 De-risking of generation assets Economic Construction Cost overruns Time overruns Market Inadequate prices or demand Input cost increase Operational Plant performance Fuel unavailability Macroeconomi

18、c Significant change in exchange rates Inflation Interest rates Political Regulatory Price controls Environmental obligations Expropriation Legal Documentation and contract Terms Validity Jurisdictional Choice of jurisdiction Enforcement Lack of dispute settlement Force majeure Natural disaster Civi

19、l unrest Strikes OECD/IEA 2012 De-risking of generation assets Regulated Risk shifted to consumers Reduces or eliminates investment risks,but can lead to:Overbuilding “Gold-plating”investing in more expensive technologies Restructured Risk born by investor and third-parties Some risks passed on in f

20、orm of higher wholesale prices Other risks can be shifted through financial/insurance products Government interventions can reduce risk Guaranteed revenues through FiTs or CfDs Loan guarantees Market structures(e.g.capacity markets)or create risk New environmental regulations Policy uncertainty OECD

21、/IEA 2012 Q&A OECD/IEA 2012 Exercise Decomposing generation costs You have a model with five generation technologies Regional specifications can influence technology costs Chose a region The next slide shows you cost differences by region and technology Try to answer the following questions in your

22、region:Identify the technolog(ies)of your choice!Identify key risks of your technology-choice!Identify ways to de-risks your technology-choice!Consider the role of carbon pricing to influence your choice!OECD/IEA 2012 Investment costs Investment costs USD/kW:USD/kW:Hard coal.2000Hard coal.2000 CCGT.

23、1000CCGT.1000 OCGT.500OCGT.500 Nuclear.4500Nuclear.4500 Onshore wind.2000Onshore wind.2000 Efficiency%:Efficiency%:Hard coal.45Hard coal.45 CCGT.60CCGT.60 OCGT.40OCGT.40 Nuclear.35Nuclear.35 Onshore wind.Onshore wind.Construction Construction time yrs:time yrs:Hard coal.6Hard coal.6 CCGT.3CCGT.3 OCG

24、T.2OCGT.2 Nuclear.10Nuclear.10 Onshore wind.1Onshore wind.1 Fuel price Fuel price USD/GJ:USD/GJ:Hard coal.3Hard coal.3 CCGT.5CCGT.5 OCGT.5OCGT.5 Nuclear.3Nuclear.3 Onshore wind.0Onshore wind.0 Cost of capital Cost of capital%:%:Hard coal.7Hard coal.7 CCGT.7CCGT.7 OCGT.10OCGT.10 Nuclear.10Nuclear.10

25、Onshore wind.10Onshore wind.10 Fuel price Fuel price USD/GJ:USD/GJ:Hard coal.5Hard coal.5 CCGT.7CCGT.7 OCGT.7OCGT.7 Nuclear.3Nuclear.3 Onshore wind.Onshore wind.0 0 Investment costs Investment costs USD/kW:USD/kW:Hard coal.2000Hard coal.2000 CCGT.1000CCGT.1000 OCGT.500OCGT.500 Nuclear.4000Nuclear.40

26、00 Onshore wind.1500Onshore wind.1500 Efficiency%:Efficiency%:Hard coal.45Hard coal.45 CCGT.60CCGT.60 OCGT.40OCGT.40 Nuclear.35Nuclear.35 Onshore wind.Onshore wind.Construction Construction time yrs:time yrs:Hard coal.6Hard coal.6 CCGT.3CCGT.3 OCGT.2OCGT.2 Nuclear.10Nuclear.10 Onshore wind.1Onshore

27、wind.1 Cost of capital Cost of capital%:%:Hard coal.7Hard coal.7 CCGT.7CCGT.7 OCGT.10OCGT.10 Nuclear.10Nuclear.10 Onshore wind.10Onshore wind.10 Fuel price Fuel price USD/GJ:USD/GJ:Hard coal.4Hard coal.4 CCGT.13CCGT.13 OCGT.13OCGT.13 Nuclear.3Nuclear.3 Onshore wind.Onshore wind.COCO2 2 price:price:1

28、5 USD/tCO2 15 USD/tCO2 Investment Investment costs costs USD/kW:USD/kW:Hard coal.1500Hard coal.1500 CCGT.750CCGT.750 OCGT.500OCGT.500 Nuclear.3500Nuclear.3500 Onshore wind.Onshore wind.15001500 Efficiency%:Efficiency%:Hard coal.40Hard coal.40 CCGT.55CCGT.55 OCGT.35OCGT.35 Nuclear.35Nuclear.35 Onshor

29、e wind.Onshore wind.Construction Construction time yrs:time yrs:Hard coal.6Hard coal.6 CCGT.3CCGT.3 OCGT.2OCGT.2 Nuclear.10Nuclear.10 Onshore wind.1Onshore wind.1 Cost of capital Cost of capital%:%:Hard coal.7Hard coal.7 CCGT.10CCGT.10 OCGT.10OCGT.10 Nuclear.10Nuclear.10 Onshore wind.10Onshore wind.

30、10 OECD/IEA 2012 Key questions arising from demand and supply balances How can sufficient investments attracted to serve peak demand?(“Generation adequacy”)How to coordinate multiple generation units(e.g.Germany 8,700 units;US 21,500;India 4,500)?Availability at all times Least cost What to do with

31、the demand side in this system?OECD/IEA 2012 Break OECD/IEA 2012 Organisation of the electricity sector in liberalised markets Regulated The“markets”(different degrees of reliance apply)OECD/IEA 2012 Open markets and integrated system operations can deliver Years in advance Months in advance Day ahe

32、ad Intraday Real-time Network operations Electricity markets Real time Day ahead Financial markets Involvement of central operator OECD/IEA 2012 Open wholesale markets Bids resulting in prices Used for physical supply day-ahead and intra-day markets are used Operational costs determines ranking orde

33、r of individual plants,i.e.their competitiveness Efficiency Fuel costs O&M Price per MWh OECD/IEA 2012 Bids resulting in prices operational costs count Wholesale market(day-ahead and intra-day)Coal 120 USD/t 39%efficiency 35/MWh Coal plant Gas plant A-CCGT Gas plant B-OCGT 50/MWh 80/MWh 11 USD/MBtu

34、55%11 USD/MBtu 35%efficiency Ranking order:Coal,Gas A,Gas B OECD/IEA 2012 Wholesale markets operation and investments 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120/MWh cumulated capacity(GW)Hydro Nuclear Lignite Hard Coal Gas Coal 120 USD/t 39%efficiency 35/MWh Coal plant Ga

35、s plant A-CCGT Gas plant B-OCGT Coal plant(35/MWh)Gas A(50/MWh)Gas B(80/MWh)Minimal demand Max demand(average day)Last required plant sets the market price:Marginal price 20/MWh Not dispatched Marginal price 42/MWh Coal plant in the money“(Infra-marginal rent:42 35/MWh)0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

36、0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120/MWh cumulated capacity(GW)Hydro Nuclear Lignite Hard Coal Gas Coal plant(35/MWh)Gas A(50/MWh)Gas B(80/MWh)Peak demand(average year)Peak demand(1 in 10)Scarcity conditions Relevant first-order principle:Getting the price(s)right during scarcity Marginal cost r

37、epresents marginal service action Demand response(Value of Lost Load essential)Price caps(Reliability target essential)Co-ordination with other services(eg Balancing)Locational differences(Underlying grid essential)Absent perfect market conditions:Additional payments for capacity likely in the long

38、run PJM,NYISO,ISO NE,CAISO ERCOT?UK France Germany?Own set of challenges exist:How much and which capacity?Implications on other investments?Lars Dittmar|32 Hourly Generation of Electricity on the 3rd Wednesday of January 2011 in Germany Nuclear Lignite Hard Coal Nat.Gas-1 9 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 1 3

39、 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 GW Solar Wind Charge P-Storage Other Discharge P-Storage Hydro Hydro RoR Other Thermal Nat.Gas Oil Hard Coal Lignite Nuclear Source:Destatis,TSOs Lars Dittmar|33 Hourly Generation of Electricity on 3rd Wednesdays in Germany 2011-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

40、8 9 10 11 12 GW Solar Wind Charge P-Storage Other Discharge P-Storage Hydro Hydro RoR Other Thermal Nat.Gas Oil Hard Coal Lignite Nuclear Source:Destatis,TSOs Lars Dittmar|34 Load Demand and the Merit Order Shape Prices:Avg.hourly load and prices in Germany 2011 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 12:00 12:00

41、 12:00 12:00 12:00 12:00 12:00 Mo Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Price EUR/MWh Load GW Sources:EPEX 2012,ENTSO,own calculation Lars Dittmar|35 Explaining Off Peak Electricity Prices by Coal Prices and CO2 Prices Source:EEX,BAFA,Bloomberg,Destatis 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dez Mai Ok

42、t Mrz Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dez Mai Okt Mrz Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Euro/MWh Coal Price/39%+CO2 Price Coal Price/39%Off Peak Price(EEX)Lars Dittmar|36 Price Duration Curves Germany(EPEX)-100-50 0 50 100 150 200 250 0 2000

43、 4000 6000 8000 EUR/MWh 2011(=51,9)2012(=42,8)2013(=37,8)Lars Dittmar|37 Are these returns sufficient?Price-Duration-Curve:Power Plant Investments on Competitive Markets 0 20 40 60 80 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Hourly day-ahead prices Euro/MWh Marginal costs of a new plant Expected annual opera

44、ting hours Ordered price duration curve for the planning horizon hours of the year Source:Erdmann 2011 OECD/IEA 2012 020406080100120Gas-CCGTHard coalNuclearUSD/MWhOPEXCAPEXInfra-marginal rents:why they matter?Infra-marginal(IR)rents are the difference between the market price and the individual plan

45、ts production costs IR are no pure profits they cover investment costs plus margin CCGT sets market price 80 USD/MWh For coal,IR is 80 minus 35 USD/MWh OECD/IEA 2012 Long-term reliability in Texas now its about the peak 505560657075808590201320142015201620172018GWExisting unitsPlanned unitsPeak13.75

46、%reserve marginData source:Brattle,2012 OECD/IEA 2012 Current concerns in Texas Low market prices due to gas market developments Reduced infra-marginal rents in the market,also for peaking plants Administered reserve margin of 13.75%exceeds price cap Target set by governments for 10 in ten events Ca

47、pped spot market prices Peaking plants cannot fully compensate during peaks Price increase from 4500 USD/MWh to 9000 USD/MWh(by June 2015.8%reserve margins achievable)No allowance to enter into long-term contracts Insufficient demand side participation Insufficient price for balancing services Texas

48、 to remain keen to preserve MWh payments(“energy-only”)instead of using capacity payments(used in rest of US,Chile,some EU)OECD/IEA 2012 Evidence of reform Reform also can work in developing countries(Jamasb et al.,2004)Positive experience in Chile,Argentina,Brazil Institutions and governance import

49、ant Efficiency gains and access improved,but not for all Cost-reflective pricing for investments and debt reduction OECD/IEA 2012 Which country was the first one to reform,when and why?Chile,1982 1978:Regulator 1982:Electricity Act 1981/82:Horizontal and vertical split up and privatisation 1986:Larg

50、e scale privatisation Return from nationalisation early 70s 1973:State firms 40%GDP and 8%losses of GDP Improvement until 1980s OECD/IEA 2012 Case studies:Chile State pension fund investments allowed into private Domestic investments into power Strong protection of property rights and information Es