哈佛大学肯尼迪学院-中国北斗：大国竞争的新维度（英）.pdf

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1、PA P E RF E B RUA RY 2 02 3B E LF E R CENTERChinas BeiDou:New Dimensions of Great Power Competition Sarah Sewall Tyler Vandenberg Kaj Malden更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告（s o s o y a n b a o），行研君胃：s o s o b a o g a oBelferCenter for Science and International Affairs Harvard Kennedy School 79 JFK Street Cambridge,M

2、A 02138www.belfercenter.orgStatements and views expressed in this report are solely those of the authors and do not imply endorsement by Harvard University,Harvard Kennedy School,the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs,or the U.S.Government.Copyright 2023,President and Fellows of Har

3、vard College更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告（s o s o y a n b a o），行研君胃：s o s o b a o g a oPA P E RF E B RUA RY 2 02 3B E LF E R CENTERChinas BeiDou:New Dimensions of Great Power CompetitionSarah Sewall Tyler Vandenberg Kaj Malden更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告（s o s o y a n b a o），行研君胃：s o s o b a o g a oiiChinas BeiDou:New Dimensi

4、ons of Great Power CompetitionAcknowledgmentsThe authors are indebted to experts in and outside government,including Dr.Yoaz Bar-Sever and Dean Cheng,and to IQT colleagues Dr.Abi Sivananthan,Michael Falcon,Kristi Bradford,Dave LoBosco,Isaac Myauo,and Stephan Bernstorf for sharing their expertise.Spe

5、cial thanks to Dr.Scott Pace and Dr.Namrata Goswami for their insights and careful reviews of the report draft.Erin Dumbacher,Madeleine Conroy,Bethan Saunders,and IQT Senior Fellows also contributed research or feedback.Their support does not imply endorsement of content,and any errors should be att

6、ributed solely to the authors.更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告（s o s o y a n b a o），行研君胃：s o s o b a o g a oiiiBelfer Center for Science and International Affairs|Harvard Kennedy SchoolAbout the Authors Dr.Sarah Sewall is Executive Vice President for Strategic Issues at IQT and non-resident Senior Fellow at the Belf

7、er Center.She served as U.S.Under Secretary of State and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and taught on the Harvard Kennedy School faculty for a decade.Tyler Vandenberg was a Policy Intern at IQT.He has since returned to active duty as an officer in the United States Marine Corps.He received hi

8、s B.A.in International Studies from American University.Views expressed in this paper are not those of the Marine Corps or Department of Defense.Kaj Malden is a Manager for Strategic Policy Analysis at IQT.He previously served as a Policy Analyst at the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commis

9、sion.He received his B.A.from Lewis and Clark College and M.A.from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies(SAIS).更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告（s o s o y a n b a o），行研君胃：s o s o b a o g a o更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告（s o s o y a n b a o），行研君胃：s o s o b a o g a ovBelfer Center for Science and Inte

10、rnational Affairs|Harvard Kennedy SchoolTable of ContentsExecutive Summary.1I.Introduction.2II.GNSS/GPS Overview.5 Military and Economic Impact.6 GNSS Vulnerabilities.7III.BeiDou Emerges.9IV.BeiDous Role Abroad.12 Cutting-Edge Accuracy.13 Commercial Dependency.15 Military Ties.16 Two Way Messaging.1

11、7 PNT Vulnerabilities.19V.Conclusion .21 Recommendations.23更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告（s o s o y a n b a o），行研君胃：s o s o b a o g a oviChinas BeiDou:New Dimensions of Great Power CompetitionA child watches a video depicting the flow of digital information during the National Science and Technology Week exhibitio

12、n held at the Military Museum in Beijing on Friday,May 24,2019.(AP Photos/Ng Han Guan)更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告（s o s o y a n b a o），行研君胃：s o s o b a o g a o1Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs|Harvard Kennedy SchoolExecutive Summary BeiDou1 is Chinas Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS),w

13、hich reached full global coverage for the first time in 2020.Like the pioneering U.S.Global Positioning System(GPS),BeiDou provides Positioning,Navigation,and Timing(PNT)data worldwide.BeiDou illustrates Beijings strategic deployment of dual-use technology to enhance Chinas geopolitical powera dynam

14、ic that increasingly shapes U.S.-China competition below the threshold of war.Although Beijing developed BeiDou primarily for military purposes,the Chinese Communist Party(CCP)takes a broader view of GNSS capabilities and is encouraging foreign nations to rely on BeiDou for civilian uses.In several

15、regions of the world,BeiDou and its supporting ground infrastructure provide the most accessible and accurate PNT data of any operating GNSS constellation.BeiDou thereby provides a foundation for Chinese infrastructure exports via the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and related Digital Silk Road(DSR)as

16、 well as consumer offerings.The integration of BeiDous PNT data with ground station enhancements,5G telecommunications,and critical infrastructure enhances Chinas soft power through political and economic relationships and the sale of Chinese technology.Beijings export of this technology ecosystem m

17、ay also pose specific security risks via technical manipulation or surveillanceincluding through BeiDous noteworthy two-way messaging capability.The United States and its international partners should evaluate more closely the effects of global reliance upon BeiDou and associated infrastructure and

18、products.Such reliance may increase states vulnerability to the Chinese government in ways that negatively affect U.S.interests and those of its democratic allies.Policymakers should consider how best to address and promote alternatives to Beijings strategic use of GNSS commercial technology.1 BeiDo

19、u is also referred to as the“BeiDou Navigation Satellite System,”abbreviated to“BDS”by the Chinese government.BeiDou Navigation Satellite System,“System,”2022.http:/ o s o y a n b a o），行研君胃：s o s o b a o g a o2Chinas BeiDou:New Dimensions of Great Power CompetitionI.Introduction The United States in

20、 1978 pioneered the deployment of what would become the first GNSS to provide PNT data worldwide.The United States GPS was created for national security purposes,and it helped transform U.S.military capabilities to conduct precision warfare.The U.S.decision to make GPS data freely available to the p

21、ublic in turn spurred commercial innovation and economic growth.2 GPS has been called the“silent utility.”It is easy to take for granted because it is both invisible and everywhere.PNT data allow text messages,phone calls,bank transactions,and photographs to be precisely timestamped and embedded wit

22、h location data.Modern infrastructure,from transportation to financial services,relies on GPS.The growth of new industries such as self-driving cars and precision agriculture is driving demand for increasingly accurate and resilient PNT.Since achieving global coverage in 1993 with 24 satellites,GPS

23、has enjoyed a privileged role as the worlds GNSS of choice.3 Although the Soviet Union offered a second alternative,GLONASS,most users worldwide preferred the quality,availability,and reliability of GPS data.Providing a global“silent utility”helped maintain U.S.political,military,and economic relati

24、onships and influence.Yet while GPS is accessible everywhere in the world,not all regions have sufficient space-and ground-based infrastructure to calculate the type of precise positioning to which Western users are accustomed and upon which the next generation of PNT-enabled devices rely.4 The glob

25、al GNSS landscape is changing.Europes Galileo and Chinas BeiDou constellations have become the third and fourth GNSS,respectively,to offer free 2 From the 1980s until 2000,the U.S.government offered limited use of GPS signals to commercial actors.In 1983,the United States granted commercial airlines

26、 access to the GPS Standard Positioning Service.GPS signals were also offered publicly,though subject to“Selective Availability”which prevented nonmilitary users from receiving location data accurate enough for military purposes.In May 2000,the United States discontinued the use of Selective Availab

27、ility to make GPS more responsive to commercial use.Mark Sullivan,“A Brief History of GPS,”PCWorld,August 9,2012,https:/ Institute of Standards and Technology,“Economic Benefits of the Global Positioning System,”June 2019,2-1,https:/www.nist.gov/system/files/documents/2020/02/06/gps_finalreport618.p

28、df.3 The U.S.Space Force normally operates 31 GPS satellites,although only 24 GPS satellites are required to maintain global coverage.The additional seven satellites may increase GPS performance but are not considered part of the core constellation.Galileo and GLONASS each have 24+satellites in orbi

29、t.GPS.gov,“Space Segment,”June 28,2022,https:/www.gps.gov/systems/gps/space/;GPS.gov,“Other GNSS,”October 19,2021,https:/www.gps.gov/systems/gnss.4 Fumiko Sasaki,“A Risk-Benefit Analysis of Chinas Belt and Road Initiative Spatial Information Corridor,”Air University,July 2022,21,https:/www.airuniver

30、sity.af.edu/Portals/10/AUPress/Papers/KP_02_Sasaki_A_Risk_Benefit_Analy-sis_of_Chinas_Belt_and_Road_Initiative_Spatial_Information_Corridor.pdf.更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告（s o s o y a n b a o），行研君胃：s o s o b a o g a o3Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs|Harvard Kennedy SchoolPNT data worldwide.O

31、ther states have deployed localized constellations and many governments are building new space programs.5 Commercial satellites are proliferating and could create new paradigms and vulnerabilities for transmitting information to and from space.GNSS augmentation projects by national governments conti

32、nue to increase the accuracy of PNT data.Innovative companies are creating new sources of PNT that could augment existing GNSS or stand alone.All these developments occur amid increasing U.S.-China competition and growing military and commercial interest in space.The U.S.government considers the fut

33、ure of GNSS predominantly through a national defense lens:supporting and preventing disruption of military operations and national critical infrastructure.Department of Defense(DOD)plans for GPS modernization are not focused on advancing U.S.economic or diplomatic interests,nor does the U.S.governme

34、nt comprehensively assess the broader implications of other GNSS.Our interviews suggest that few U.S.policymakers are seeking to understand how the changing GNSS landscape,particularly the Chinese governments activities,might affect non-military dimensions of great power competition.Beijing,on the o

35、ther hand,recognizes that BeiDous commercial applications can enhance the CCPs political,economic,and security goals.As part of a multi-dimensional,long-term strategy,Beijing uses BeiDou and associated infrastructure to promote diplomatic and economic ties,facilitate the sale of Chinese products,and

36、 potentially access user information and disrupt PNT data.The BeiDou constellation has grown rapidly from 2000 to 2020,and is now the worlds largest GNSS with 45 operational satellites.6 As a result,BeiDou satellites are today more easily observed and provide more signals in most global capitals.7 B

37、eijing is supporting BeiDou overseas with additional ground infrastructure that monitors the system and improves data accuracy.8 BeiDou also has advanced 5 Additional states have deployed smaller regional constellations,including Japans Quasi-Zenith Satellite System(QZSS)and Indias Regional Navigati

38、on Satellite System(IRNSS).European Union Agency for the Space Programme,“GNSS User Technology Report,”2020,11,https:/www.euspa.europa.eu/sites/default/files/uploads/technology_re-port_2020.pdf.6 Changfeng Yang,“Directions 2022:BDS Enters New Era of Global Services,”GPS World,January 14,2022.https:/

39、 Kazuhiro Kida et al.,“Chinas Version of GPS Now Has More Satellites than US Original,”Nikkei Asia,August 19,2019,https:/ State Council Information Office of the Peoples Republic of China,“2021 Chinas Aerospace White Paper(Full Text)”(2021中国的航天 白皮书（全文）)January 28,2022,Translation,http:/ o s o y a n

40、b a o），行研君胃：s o s o b a o g a o4Chinas BeiDou:New Dimensions of Great Power Competitionsignal features that GPS does not haveincluding two way-messagingwhich could create commercial advantages as well as pose security risks.9 As this dual-use technology improves and becomes intertwined with Chinas i

41、nfrastructure exports and consumer products,BeiDous global use will likely grow.This paper explores BeiDous role in great power competition short of war.Section II explains how a GNSS works,focusing on GPS,and discusses its benefits and vulnerabilities.Section III reviews BeiDous origin and comparat

42、ive features for civilian use.Section IV explores how the Chinese government is using BeiDou to advance its geopolitical aims abroad.Section V offers a conclusion and recommendations for U.S.policymakers.9 BeiDou is distinct from other GNSS in featuring a two-way communication system,discussed furth

43、er in section IV.更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告（s o s o y a n b a o），行研君胃：s o s o b a o g a o5Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs|Harvard Kennedy SchoolII.GNSS/GPS Overview GNSS are constellations of Earth-orbiting satellites that provide PNT data to users on and above the Earths surface.GNSS const

44、itute an invisible critical infrastructure that is ubiquitous in everyday life,underpinning an array of commercial and national security services.Although governments provide PNT data without charge,most receivers that read transmitted GNSS signals are commercially manufactured.Over time,GNSS PNT da

45、ta have come to be seen not just as vital military capabilities,but also as global public goods.GNSS use a complex process of communicating calculations of timing and positioning.Simultaneous signals from three or more satellites allow a receiver to triangulate its exact position on the earth.The gr

46、eater the number of observable GNSS satellites,the greater the accuracy of data.For this reason,the United States historically has encouraged international standards to make GNSS-enabled devices compatible and interoperable with multiple constellations.Multi-use receivers that gather data from multi

47、ple GNSS can also search for alternatives in the event of service disruption.Nations manage their GNSS through a dedicated ground control system with supporting components deployed across the globe.A ground control system includes ground monitoring stations that track satellites,monitor their transm

48、issions,correct their PNT data,and send commands to the constellation.Using atomic clocks,the ground monitoring stations enable correction of atmospherically distorted satellite data.In 2008,the United States expanded the GPS ground monitoring network from six to 16 stations,which helped improve GPS

49、 accuracy by 10-15 percent.10 These ground monitoring stations are unevenly dispersed,however,and they are especially rare in the developing world.11 Governments seek to enhance PNT data accuracy because even marginal improvements can have significant implications for military,commercial,and“safety

50、of life”purposes.The United States,the European Union,and China each operate three satellites in geostationary orbit to increase PNT accuracy and 10 GPS.gov,“Legacy Accuracy Improvement Initiative,”September 11,2020,https:/www.gps.gov/systems/gps/control/L-AII/.11 Nine of 16 GPS ground monitoring st