某公司资本成本与融资方式的选择培训教材fqte.pptx
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1、2017.11资本成本与融资方式的选择资本成本与融资方式的选择-以云南白药为例以云南白药为例主要内容主要内容Main Contents123公司简介公司简介风险与收益风险与收益4最最优资本成本结构分析优资本成本结构分析 公司资本成本公司资本成本公司简介公司简介公司简介公司简介云南白药集团股份有限公司(股票简称“云南白药”,股票代码000538,深圳证券交易所),是一家主要经营化学原料药、化学药制剂、中成药、中药材、生物制品等的公司。公司产品以云南白药系列、三七系列和云南民族特色药品系列为主,共17种剂型200余个产品,产品畅销国内市场及东南亚一带,并逐渐进入日本、欧美等发达国家市场。经过30多
2、年的发展,公司已从一个资产不足300万元的生产企业成长为一个总资产245亿多,总销售收入逾200亿元(2016年末),云南省实力最强、品牌最优的大型医药企业集团。1997年被确定为云南省首批重点培育的四十家大企业大集团之一;2010中药行业品牌峰会品牌评选活动首次发布的中药行业各领域十强企业品牌榜单上,云南白药在中药企业传统品牌榜单十强中排名第一。风险与收益风险与收益公司面临的风险公司面临的风险药品降价风险:药品降价风险:现阶段医药行业受产品监管加强、药品政策性降价、招标压价、医保控费等方面影响,药品中标价格将会进一步下调,行业内各企业竞争将更加激烈,价格战时有发生。环保风险:环保风险:随着近
3、年来环保政策法规相继出台,环保标准日益提高,国家对污染物的管控力度不断加大,这将增加公司环保治理工作难度和环保费用开支,使公司面临环保处罚风险。03市场风险市场风险:随着国家推动医疗体制改革向纵深发展,相关政策密集出台,同行业企业经营策略不断变化,特别是企业间兼并重组使医药企业更加集中,导致医药行业竞争日趋激烈,使公司面临严峻的市场竞争风险和较大的竞争压力。010203公司面临的风险公司面临的风险研发风险:研发风险:新药研发存在高投入、高风险、周期长等特点,国家近年来频繁推出药品研发相关政策,对新药上市的审评工作要求进一步提高,为公司的新药研发带来一定风险。同时,药品上市后的推广也会受到国家法
4、规、行业政策、市场环境以及竞争强度等因素的影响,导致新药上市后收入不能达到预期,使公司面临新产品经营风险。行业风险:行业风险:医药行业具有抗通胀的特性,不会随经济周期波动而大幅波动,比较稳定,是典型的防御性股票。但化学制剂药是医院处方用药的主体,大约80%以上的销售额在医院完成。所以在处方药市场上,对医院终端的渗透和持续的影响力是经营成功和保持增长的关键。随着国家医疗改革工作的不断深入,医保控费、分级诊疗、药品限抗等多项行业政策和法规的相继出台,打破了医药行业依赖医保扩张的传统逻辑,医药行业进入艰难转型期,行业整体增速明显下降。0405公司面临的风险公司面临的风险产品产品质量风险:质量风险:医
5、药产品关系到社会公众健康,国家对药品的生产工艺、原材料、储藏环境等均有严格的条件限制,在药品生产、运输、储藏过程中,外部环境变化可能对药品本身成分、含量等产生影响,从而使药品的功效、性质发生变化,不再符合国家相关标准。虽然云南白药的药品生产车间已通过国家GMP认证,并严格按照国家GMP认证要求建立了完善的质量保证体系,使从原材料进厂到产成品出厂的全生产过程均处于受控状态,保证了产品质量。但如果企业的质量管理工作出现纰漏或因经销商不当储藏、销售等因素导致发生产品质量问题,不但可能会产生赔偿风险,还可能影响云南白药的信誉和产品销售。06面对以上诸多因素造成的风险,企业应当将密切关注政策变化,加强政
6、策的解读与分析,适时调整经营策略:l继续继续推进营销模式变革,深入实施专营网络建设推进营销模式变革,深入实施专营网络建设l优化优化产品结构,强化品牌优势产品结构,强化品牌优势l优化优化产业布局,突出专业化优势产业布局,突出专业化优势l加快加快产学研科技创新步伐,构建新型研发体系产学研科技创新步伐,构建新型研发体系l创新创新管理手段,挖掘内在潜能管理手段,挖掘内在潜能l依托依托区域龙头优势区域龙头优势,加快医药商业规模化发展加快医药商业规模化发展风险的应对措施风险的应对措施回归使用数据回归使用数据参数选择参数选择估计时间窗口:3年(2014年11月初到2017年11月初)数据频率:周数据市场指数
7、:深圳成指数据数据来源来源公司收益率波动公司收益率波动与市场收益率的协方差cov(Ri,Rm)=0.0000984,协方差较小,说明与市场收益率波动较为一致。收益率波动一致协方差方差0.0000984560.0002205872017-11-082017-09-012017-07-282017-06-232017-05-192017-04-142017-03-102017-02-032016-12-232016-11-182016-09-302016-08-262016-07-222016-06-172016-05-062016-04-012016-02-262016-01-082015-12
8、-042015-10-302015-09-182015-08-072015-07-032015-05-292015-04-242015-03-202015-02-132015-01-092014-12-0500.020.040.060.080.1-0.02-0.04-0.06深圳成指对数收益率,2017-11-08,-0.008273818深圳成指对数收益率,2017-11-03,0.010932751深圳成指对数收益率,2017-10-27,-0.006007605深圳成指对数收益率,2017-10-20,0.008236815深圳成指对数收益率,2017-10-13,-0.01755619
9、深圳成指对数收益率,2017-09-01,-0.009404778深圳成指对数收益率,2017-08-25,-0.001516541深圳成指对数收益率,2017-08-18,-0.012942362深圳成指对数收益率,2017-08-11,0.004172883深圳成指对数收益率,2017-08-04,0.002062176深圳成指对数收益率,2017-07-28,-0.00488225深圳成指对数收益率,2017-07-21,0.006045847深圳成指对数收益率,2017-07-14,0.006848208深圳成指对数收益率,2017-07-07,-0.003762148深圳成指对数收益
10、率,2017-06-30,-0.006349315深圳成指对数收益率,2017-06-23,-0.003489957深圳成指对数收益率,2017-06-16,-0.002072607深圳成指对数收益率,2017-06-09,-0.01636608深圳成指对数收益率,2017-06-02,0.004478237深圳成指对数收益率,2017-05-26,0.008586559深圳成指对数收益率,2017-05-19,-0.008454348深圳成指对数收益率,2017-05-12,0.012524807深圳成指对数收益率,2017-05-05,0.007878347深圳成指对数收益率,2017-0
11、4-28,0.004084434深圳成指对数收益率,2017-04-21,0.013537796深圳成指对数收益率,2017-04-14,0.00712832深圳成指对数收益率,2017-04-07,-0.009629666深圳成指对数收益率,2017-03-31,0.011412093深圳成指对数收益率,2017-03-24,-0.004079449深圳成指对数收益率,2017-03-17,-0.003162306深圳成指对数收益率,2017-03-10,-0.002298818深圳成指对数收益率,2017-03-03,0.002028272深圳成指对数收益率,2017-02-24,-0.0
12、10081952深圳成指对数收益率,2017-02-17,0.000978224深圳成指对数收益率,2017-02-10,-0.009337885深圳成指对数收益率,2017-02-03,-0.005120989深圳成指对数收益率,2017-01-20,0.006252091深圳成指对数收益率,2017-01-13,0.013654268深圳成指对数收益率,2017-01-06,-0.005192922深圳成指对数收益率,2016-12-30,-0.000188383深圳成指对数收益率,2016-12-23,0.004585771深圳成指对数收益率,2016-12-16,0.016231934
13、深圳成指对数收益率,2016-12-09,0.002185861深圳成指对数收益率,2016-12-02,0.008190059深圳成指对数收益率,2016-11-25,-0.003881901深圳成指对数收益率,2016-11-18,-0.00092838深圳成指对数收益率,2016-11-11,-0.008133426深圳成指对数收益率,2016-11-04,-0.002411091深圳成指对数收益率,2016-10-28,-0.000573656深圳成指对数收益率,2016-10-14,-0.010163361深圳成指对数收益率,2016-09-30,0.002009848深圳成指对数收
14、益率,2016-09-23,-0.006723871深圳成指对数收益率,2016-09-14,0.011960861深圳成指对数收益率,2016-09-09,-0.006300279深圳成指对数收益率,2016-09-02,0.002630827深圳成指对数收益率,2016-08-26,0.005396285深圳成指对数收益率,2016-08-19,-0.015088999深圳成指对数收益率,2016-08-12,-0.00753499深圳成指对数收益率,2016-08-05,-0.000214376深圳成指对数收益率,2016-07-29,0.016246103深圳成指对数收益率,2016-
15、07-22,0.003908406深圳成指对数收益率,2016-07-15,-0.005801317深圳成指对数收益率,2016-07-08,-0.009004923深圳成指对数收益率,2016-07-01,-0.014586371深圳成指对数收益率,2016-06-24,0.000677649深圳成指对数收益率,2016-06-17,0.002692757深圳成指对数收益率,2016-06-03,-0.024182869深圳成指对数收益率,2016-05-27,-0.002325116深圳成指对数收益率,2016-05-20,-0.002199184深圳成指对数收益率,2016-05-13,
16、0.019767848深圳成指对数收益率,2016-05-06,0.000665087深圳成指对数收益率,2016-04-29,-0.001216902深圳成指对数收益率,2016-04-22,0.024383812深圳成指对数收益率,2016-04-15,-0.015129941深圳成指对数收益率,2016-04-08,-0.002754201深圳成指对数收益率,2016-04-01,-0.003196602深圳成指对数收益率,2016-03-25,-0.010938845深圳成指对数收益率,2016-03-18,-0.036465178深圳成指对数收益率,2016-03-11,0.0063
17、91419深圳成指对数收益率,2016-03-04,0.005682889深圳成指对数收益率,2016-02-26,0.026511779深圳成指对数收益率,2016-02-19,-0.037807146深圳成指对数收益率,2016-01-29,0.033364268深圳成指对数收益率,2016-01-22,-0.007662632深圳成指对数收益率,2016-01-15,0.042901899深圳成指对数收益率,2016-01-08,0.066691067深圳成指对数收益率,2015-12-31,0.008289989深圳成指对数收益率,2015-12-25,-0.00472864深圳成指对
18、数收益率,2015-12-18,-0.026749321深圳成指对数收益率,2015-12-11,0.007165725深圳成指对数收益率,2015-12-04,-0.010993855深圳成指对数收益率,2015-11-27,0.021285217深圳成指对数收益率,2015-11-20,-0.015938776深圳成指对数收益率,2015-11-13,-0.009203048深圳成指对数收益率,2015-11-06,-0.024840695深圳成指对数收益率,2015-10-30,0.001042622深圳成指对数收益率,2015-10-23,-0.01044521深圳成指对数收益率,20
19、15-10-16,-0.035319795深圳成指对数收益率,2015-10-09,-0.027628398深圳成指对数收益率,2015-09-25,-0.004035411深圳成指对数收益率,2015-09-18,0.02655131深圳成指对数收益率,2015-09-11,0.016139369深圳成指对数收益率,2015-08-28,0.043558661深圳成指对数收益率,2015-08-21,0.053252493深圳成指对数收益率,2015-08-14,-0.026898556深圳成指对数收益率,2015-08-07,-0.014215132深圳成指对数收益率,2015-07-31
20、,0.041430041深圳成指对数收益率,2015-07-24,-0.024033696深圳成指对数收益率,2015-07-17,-0.033312975深圳成指对数收益率,2015-07-10,0.013394698深圳成指对数收益率,2015-07-03,0.078160433深圳成指对数收益率,2015-06-26,0.039650507深圳成指对数收益率,2015-06-19,0.05858723深圳成指对数收益率,2015-06-12,-0.013646713深圳成指对数收益率,2015-06-05,-0.041662384深圳成指对数收益率,2015-05-29,-0.00750
21、0118深圳成指对数收益率,2015-05-22,-0.049772887深圳成指对数收益率,2015-05-15,-0.029263745深圳成指对数收益率,2015-05-08,0.002217388深圳成指对数收益率,2015-04-30,-0.001955038深圳成指对数收益率,2015-04-24,-0.023357396深圳成指对数收益率,2015-04-17,0.001062748深圳成指对数收益率,2015-04-10,-0.012630884深圳成指对数收益率,2015-04-03,-0.031634454深圳成指对数收益率,2015-03-27,-0.01889426深圳
22、成指对数收益率,2015-03-20,-0.033370791深圳成指对数收益率,2015-03-13,-0.014959998深圳成指对数收益率,2015-03-06,-0.005308988深圳成指对数收益率,2015-02-27,-0.005913113深圳成指对数收益率,2015-02-17,-0.01075091深圳成指对数收益率,2015-02-13,-0.020927303深圳成指对数收益率,2015-02-06,0.005654714深圳成指对数收益率,2015-01-30,0.001275862深圳成指对数收益率,2015-01-23,-0.00953384深圳成指对数收益率
23、,2015-01-16,-0.009393588深圳成指对数收益率,2015-01-09,-0.00820334深圳成指对数收益率,2014-12-31,0.006143447深圳成指对数收益率,2014-12-26,0.007151405深圳成指对数收益率,2014-12-19,0.002968286深圳成指对数收益率,2014-12-12,-0.009422126深圳成指对数收益率,2014-12-05,-0.013047008深圳成指对数收益率,2014-11-28,-0.020243061深圳成指对数收益率,2014-11-21,-0.011441777云南白药对数收益率,2017-1
24、1-08,0.008742354云南白药对数收益率,2017-11-03,-0.004074757云南白药对数收益率,2017-10-27,-0.015903703云南白药对数收益率,2017-10-20,-0.036754999云南白药对数收益率,2017-10-13,-0.02309216云南白药对数收益率,2017-09-01,0.008360688云南白药对数收益率,2017-08-25,0.000394141云南白药对数收益率,2017-08-18,0.003482418云南白药对数收益率,2017-08-11,-0.019533932云南白药对数收益率,2017-08-04,0.0
25、18359898云南白药对数收益率,2017-07-28,0.010597205云南白药对数收益率,2017-07-21,-0.003749591云南白药对数收益率,2017-07-14,-0.002155864云南白药对数收益率,2017-07-07,0.016124175云南白药对数收益率,2017-06-30,0.006704289云南白药对数收益率,2017-06-23,-0.011030752云南白药对数收益率,2017-06-16,0.004139656云南白药对数收益率,2017-06-09,-0.016558072云南白药对数收益率,2017-06-02,-0.00727662
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