MIT的物流与供应链管理6966.pptx

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1、MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation MIT Course 1.270/ESD.273(Fall 2002 MW 4:00-5:30 Rm 1-246)MIT Course 1.270/ESD.273(Fall 2002 MW 4:00-5:30 Rm 1-246)Logistics&Supply Chain Management Logistics&Supply Chain Management Logistics&Supply Chain Management Logistics&Supply Chain Management PROFESSOR DA

2、VID SIMCHI-LEVIPROFESSOR DAVID SIMCHI-LEVIPROFESSOR DAVID SIMCHI-LEVIPROFESSOR DAVID SIMCHI-LEVIUncertaintyUncertainty in Demand Pipelines Ignites Supply Nets in Demand Pipelines Ignites Supply Nets9 9thth October 2002 October 2002by by Shoumen Datta,Research ScientistShoumen Datta,Research Scientis

3、tEngineering Systems Division,School of EngineeringEngineering Systems Division,School of EngineeringExecutive Director,Forum for Supply Chain InnovationExecutive Director,Forum for Supply Chain Innovationhttp:/supplychain.mit.edu/innovationhttp:/supplychain.mit.edu/innovationDisclaimer:Opinions exp

4、ressed in this presentation are that of the author.It does notrepresent the consensus opinion of MIT as an institution or other faculty that may bedirectly or indirectly associated with MIT School of Engineering or MIT Sloan School.MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Todays discussion uUNCERTAINTY

5、 URL for powerpoint presentation http:/supplychain.mit.edu/innovationEducation Course 1.270/ESD.273SCM is managing uncertainty.MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Nobel Prize in Economics 2002(announced today,09 Oct 2002)for having integrated insights from psychological research into economic scie

6、nce,especially concerning human judgment and decision-making under uncertaintyfor having established laboratory experiments as a tool in empirical economic analysis,especially in the study of alternative market mechanismsDaniel KahnemanVernon L.Smith1/2oftheprize1/2oftheprizeUSAandIsraelUSAPrinceton

7、UniversityPrinceton,NJ,USAGeorgeMasonUniversityFairfax,VA,USAb.1934b.1927MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation BODYSCANNERBYTC2BODYSCANNERBYTC2MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Invasion of the Body ScannersDigitallyspeakingMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation PartoftheProcessMIT Forum for Suppl

8、y Chain Innovation PERSONALDIGITALPROFILEMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Customer:How will I look in this dress?Retailer:What should we order for Fall?Manufacturer:Whats the next demand?Data miningData MartRetailersAccessoriesJewelry,ShoesShiseido,CoachHarrods,M&SGucci,BallysGuerlain,PoloUSD,D

9、EMEURO,INRYEN,YUANTRAVELHEALTHEDUCATIONARTS&MUSICCelebrityGalleryWorld History ofFashionThe Way We WoreData WarehouseBODY SCANeFASHIONEBCB2BAnne KleinLevis,BebeTalbots,AXChina,India,SiamFABRICSUPPLIERSDataWarehouseFABRICBROKERINDEPENDENTDESIGNBROKERGlobal DesignWAREHOUSEMEDIA/POPTailors-Contract Sho

10、psAmateursDesign ForumManufacturingTailor BrokerOrderIndividual Tailors On-callPreference SurveySHIPPINGMALLamJulia RobertsJulia RobertsFinancialRETURNCRMDONATESalvation ArmyCAREGoodwilleBAYBoutiquesJ C PenneyOutlet StoresAmateurModelsSHIPPINGERPRETAILERSMACYS,NORDSTROM,BLOOMINGDALESPERSONALPROFILES

11、OFTWAREPERSONALPROFILEANALYSISPortalManufacturerManufacturerMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Customer Relationship ManagementEXPECTATION vs RESULTEXPECTATION vs RESULTSource:AMR Research 1999 OctoberMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation U n c e r t a i n t y.Lack of rule-based resolution:expect

12、ation vs resultu Financial Impactu Cost of Correctionu Side Effects MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation U n c e r t a i n t y.Financial Impactu Opportunity lost:unable to ramp upu Economic loss:unable to ramp down MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Source:Forrester ResearchSource:Forrester Rese

13、archMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Source:ForresterSource:ForresterMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation U n c e r t a i n t y.Cost of Correctionu Resourcesu Inventory MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation U n c e r t a i n t y.Side Effects(undesirable)u Tackle only symptomsu Negative fall ou

14、t MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation EBM in SCM offers little ADAPTABILITY to SENSE and RESPONDEBM in SCM offers little ADAPTABILITY to SENSE and RESPOND(Supply Chain Event(Supply Chain Event mismis-Management)-Management)Insulation of Planning from ExecutionIndividual optimisation not SC optimis

15、ationSmart-Hub and Dumb-Spoke ConfigurationIsolation of Environment of OperationMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Source:ForresterSource:ForresterMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Traditional AdaptiveSource:ForresterSource:ForresterMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation What to do?Understand

16、customer needMonitor supply availabilityManage supply chain partner performanceDecentralize problem solvingMonitor corrective actions and feedbackInclude macro-economic indicatorsMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Evolving Analytical Tools and Early Users Evolving Analytical Tools and Early Users

17、 Source:ForresterSource:ForresterMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Portfolio of Real OptionsPortfolio of Real OptionsSource:HP&ForresterSource:HP&ForresterMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation U n c e r t a i n t y.Financial Impactu Opportunity lost:unable to ramp upu Economic loss:unable to ram

18、p down MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation U n c e r t a i n t y.Push-Pull Case Study by DSLMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Uncertainty.Lead TimeMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Performance.MIT Forum for Supply

19、Chain Innovation MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Performance.MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation For same lead time,For same lead time,optimized supply chainoptimized supply chainoffers lower costoffers lower costSafety Stock Cost vs Lead TimeManaging Fi

20、nancial Cost of UncertaintyManaging Financial Cost of UncertaintyMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Uncertainty.ProcurementMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Push-Pull Supply ChainsThe Supply Chain Time LineLow Uncertainty High UncertaintyCustomersSupplier

21、sPUSH STRATEGYPULL STRATEGYPush-Pull BoundaryPush-Pull BoundaryMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation From Make-to-Stock Model.ConfigurationAssemblySuppliersMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation to Assemble-to-Order ModelConfigurationAssemblySuppliersMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation PLMa cause o

22、f UNCERTAINTY in SCM Source:ForresterSource:ForresterMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Source:ForresterSource:ForresterMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Source:ForresterSource:ForresterMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Whats wrong with this illustration?Imagination is out of focus!Source

23、:ForresterSource:ForresterMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Inventory ManagementOrder ProcessingE-BusinessVendor ManagementTaxElectronic CommerceFinancialsMarketingExecutive InformationInventory ProgramsAccounts PayableStock TransfersWarehouseInbound QA1ReceivingRepair OrdersPurchasingAccounts R

24、eceivableOutbound QAShippingOrder ServicesQuotingCreditCustomer ManagementDistributed Data in Connected EnvironmentsMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Evolution Evolution?Can this evolutionary“vision”succeed?Can this evolutionary“vision”succeed?Source:ForresterSource:ForresterMIT Forum for Supply

25、 Chain Innovation Real-time Real-time Data LayerData LayerD2BD2B802.11802.11UWBUWBdERPdERPInternet 0 Internet 0 Internet 1 Internet 1 Internet 2 Internet 2 A AGGE EN NT TS SS E C U R I T YReal Time Distributed Data Infra-de-structure with Embedded AgentsReal Time Distributed Data Infra-de-structure

26、with Embedded AgentsMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation The Semantic Web Bus(WebVan!)MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Tim Berners-Lee:Semantic Web MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Observation 199883millionaccesstheInternetinlanguagesotherthanEnglishProjection 200570%of1billionusersmaynot

27、speakEnglishFACT46%US businessrefuse intl orderbecause they lack means toprocess them.JapaneseSpanishGermanFrenchChineseDutchKoreanSwedishItalianMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation 177117711825182518861886193919391977197719971997Industrial Revolution Industrial Revolution 18001800Information Evolu

28、tion Information Evolution 1853185319131913196919692005200520252025RapidRapidAdoptionAdoptionIntroductionIntroductionofofTechnologyTechnology185318531913191319691969202520252061206120812081Conceptual advances occur about twice a century and lead to wealth of nations TextileTextileRailwayRailwayAutoA

29、utoComputerComputerDistributedIntelligenceNanotechSource:Norman Poire,EconomistSource:Norman Poire,EconomistAGENTSAGENTSMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Locating the Push-Pull BoundaryMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation PLANEXECUTESENSERESPONDDEMANDEXCEPTIONMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovati

30、on Supply Chain Evolves to.Supply Chain Evolves to.CustomerCustomers DCMANUFACTURERRaw material SUPPLIERSStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreDCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonStorePlantDCPlantDCREAL TIME ePCePC data from RFID TagReplenishmentneedsConfirmationLoadsStore OrdersStatusImmediateReplenishmentne

31、edsFutureshipping needsReplenishmentneeds determinedfrom RFID Tag info“Intelligent Signal”PORTALS/ExchangeTransportCustomer Info CenterManufacturerHQreal timeRFID dataPersonal CareConsumer TissueHealth CareInformationAgentInventory Early Warning AgentTLB AgentCross-Docking AgentAgents based Adaptive

32、 NetworkAgents based Adaptive NetworkConsumptionInventoryDataDC to MfrMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Supply ChainsSupply Chains Real-time Adaptable Demand Networks Real-time Adaptable Demand NetworksMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCCustomerStoreStore

33、StoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreIndustry best now versus what can be achieved:Need to evolveNeed to evolve Day 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0=Product=InfoDay 7Received,unloaded&stocked on store shelvesSCOTTSCOTTDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0=Non-value-addedtime=Product=I

34、nfoReplenished in 7 daysPortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerReplenished in 13 hoursroom for improvement to under 10 hrsroom for improvement to under 10 hrsMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCust

35、omerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreConsumerBuys SCOTT 2pm Day 0=Product=InfoFuture SCFuture SC:Consumer PurchaseConsumer PurchaseMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCPortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreS

36、toreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product=InfoRFID Smart Tag atPOS read 2pm Day 0SCOTTSCOTTSCOTTSCOTTDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0Future SC:Future SC:RFID“Smart”Tag ReadRFID“Smart”Tag ReadMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day

37、4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product=Info0101100110111010001112pm Day 0RFID Smart tag datatransmitted instantly010110011011101000111Future SC:Future SC:RFID“Smart”Tag Data Transmitted in Real TimeRFID“Sm

38、art”Tag Data Transmitted in Real TimeMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product=Info01011001101110100011101011001101110

39、10001112:10pm Day 0Replenishment needs receivedby scheduling(TLB)systemsFuture SC:Future SC:RFID“Smart”Tag Data Received in Real TimeRFID“Smart”Tag Data Received in Real TimeMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0Porta

40、lTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product=Info0101100110111010001112:35 pm,Day 0System detects OOS danger at customer&co-ordinates rapid-response shipment(reallocation of en route load evaluated)0101100110111010001110101100110111010001110101100

41、11011101000111Future SC:Future SC:RFID“Smart”Tag Data helps Detect OOS DangerRFID“Smart”Tag Data helps Detect OOS DangerMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStore

42、StoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product=InfoSmart Plannerinterrogates demand filterFuture SC:Future SC:RFID“Smart”Tag Data coupled with Smart PlannerRFID“Smart”Tag Data coupled with Smart PlannerMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6

43、Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product=InfoSmart Planner integrates info:current inventory,shipment,planning Future SC:Future SC:RFID“Smart”Tag Data coupled with Smart PlannerRFID“Smart”Tag Data coupled with Smart Pl

44、annerMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product=InfoSmart Planner executes changes,broadcasts plan,exceptions,optionsFu

45、ture SC:Future SC:RFID“Smart”Tag Data coupled with Smart PlannerRFID“Smart”Tag Data coupled with Smart PlannerMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStore

46、StoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product=Info4pm Day 04pm Day 0Trailer loadedTrailer loadedFuture SC:Future SC:Smart Planning segues to TLB Smart Planning segues to TLB MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCu

47、stomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product=Info10pm Day 0Customer DC receives SCOTTSCOTTSCOTTFuture SC:Future SC:SCOTT Paper Tissue received at CDCSCOTT Paper Tissue received at CDCMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDC

48、Day 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product=Info11pm Day 0Customer DC ships SCOTTSCOTTSCOTTFuture SC:Future SC:CDC Ships to StoreCDC Ships to StoreMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation DCDCDCPaper

49、MedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product=InfoReplenished in 13 hoursroom for improvement to under 10 hrsroom for improvement to under 10 hrs3am Day 1Received,unloaded

50、&stocked on store shelvesSCOTTSCOTTFuture SC:Future SC:RFID“Smart”tag data aids Replenishment in 13 hrsRFID“Smart”tag data aids Replenishment in 13 hrsMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5