曼昆宏观经济学原理义.pptx

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1、会计学 1曼昆宏观经济学原理义Basic Conceptsn n Closed economyn nEconomy that does not interact with other Economy that does not interact with other economies in the worldeconomies in the worldn n Open economyn nEconomy that interacts freely with other economies Economy that interacts freely with other economies a

2、round the worldaround the world2第1 页/共47 页International Flow of Goodsn n Exportsn nGoods&servicesGoods&servicesn nProduced domesticallyProduced domesticallyn nSold abroadSold abroadn n Importsn nGoods and servicesGoods and servicesn nProduced abroadProduced abroadn nSold domesticallySold domesticall

3、y3第2 页/共47 页International Flow of Goodsn n Net exportsn nValue of a nations exports Value of a nations exports n nMinus the value of its importsMinus the value of its importsn nAlso called trade balanceAlso called trade balancen n Trade balancen nValue of a nations exportsValue of a nations exportsn

4、 nMinus the value of its importsMinus the value of its importsn nAlso called net exportsAlso called net exports4第3 页/共47 页International Flow of Goodsn n Trade surplusn nExcess of exports over importsExcess of exports over importsn n Trade deficitn nExcess of imports over exportsExcess of imports ove

5、r exportsn n Balanced traden nExports equal importsExports equal imports5第4 页/共47 页International Flow of Goodsn n Factors that influence a countrys exports,imports,and net exports:n nTastes of consumers for domestic&Tastes of consumers for domestic&foreign goodsforeign goodsn nPrices of goods at hom

6、e and abroadPrices of goods at home and abroadn nExchange ratesExchange ratesn n People use domestic currency to buy People use domestic currency to buy foreign currencies foreign currenciesn nIncomes of consumers at home and Incomes of consumers at home and abroadabroad6第5 页/共47 页International Flow

7、 of Goodsn n Factors that influence a countrys exports,imports,and net exports:n nCost of transporting goods from Cost of transporting goods from country to countrycountry to countryn nGovernment policies toward Government policies toward international tradeinternational trade7第6 页/共47 页The increasi

8、ng openness of the U.S.economyn n Increasing importance of international trade and financen n1950s,imports and exports:4-5%of 1950s,imports and exports:4-5%of GDPGDPn nRecent years:Recent years:n n Exports increased more than twice Exports increased more than twicen n Imports increased more than thr

9、ee Imports increased more than three times times8第7 页/共47 页The increasing openness of the U.S.economyn n Increase in international traden nImprovements in transportationImprovements in transportationn nAdvances in telecommunicationsAdvances in telecommunicationsn nTechnological progress Technologica

10、l progress n nGovernments trade policiesGovernments trade policiesn n NAFTA NAFTAn n GATT GATT9第8 页/共47 页Figure 110The Internationalization of the U.S.EconomyThis figure shows exports and imports of the U.S.economy as a percentage of U.S.gross domestic product since 1950.The substantial increases ov

11、er time show the increasing importance of international trade and finance.第9 页/共47 页International Flow of Capitaln n Net capital outflow n nPurchase of foreign assets by domestic Purchase of foreign assets by domestic residentsresidentsn n Foreign direct investment Foreign direct investmentn n Forei

12、gn portfolio investment Foreign portfolio investmentn nMinus the purchase of domestic assets Minus the purchase of domestic assets by foreignersby foreigners11第10 页/共47 页International Flow of Capitaln n Variables that influence net capital outflown nReal interest rates paid on foreign Real interest

13、rates paid on foreign assetsassetsn nReal interest rates paid on domestic Real interest rates paid on domestic assetsassetsn nPerceived economic and political risks Perceived economic and political risks of holding assets abroadof holding assets abroadn nGovernment policies that affect foreign Gover

14、nment policies that affect foreign ownership of domestic assetsownership of domestic assets12第11 页/共47 页Net Exports=Net Capital Outflown n Net exports(NX)n nImbalance between a countrys exports Imbalance between a countrys exports and its importsand its importsn n Net capital outflow(NCO)n nImbalanc

15、e betweenImbalance betweenn n Amount of foreign assets bought by Amount of foreign assets bought by domestic residents domestic residentsn n And the amount of domestic assets And the amount of domestic assets bought by foreigners bought by foreignersn n Identity:NCO=NX13第12 页/共47 页Net Exports=Net Ca

16、pital Outflown n When NX 0(trade surplus)n nSelling more goods and services to Selling more goods and services to foreigners foreigners n n Than it is buying from them Than it is buying from themn nFrom net sale of goods and servicesFrom net sale of goods and servicesn n Receives foreign currency Re

17、ceives foreign currencyn n Buy foreign assets Buy foreign assetsn n Capital-flowing out of the country:NCO Capital-flowing out of the country:NCO 0 014第13 页/共47 页Net Exports=Net Capital Outflown n When NX 0(trade deficit)n nBuying more goods and services from Buying more goods and services from fore

18、ignersforeignersn n Than it is selling to them Than it is selling to themn nThe net purchase of goods and servicesThe net purchase of goods and servicesn n Needs financed Needs financedn n Selling assets abroad Selling assets abroadn n Capital-flowing into the country:NCO Capital-flowing into the co

19、untry:NCO 0 015第14 页/共47 页Saving and Investmentn n Open economy:Y=C+I+G+NXn n National saving:S=Y C G Y C G=I+NXY C G=I+NX S=I+NXS=I+NXn n NX=NCO S=I+NCOS=I+NCO Saving=Domestic investment+Net Saving=Domestic investment+Net capital outflowcapital outflow16第15 页/共47 页International Flowsn n Trade surpl

20、us:Exports Imports Net exports 0Net exports 0 Y Domestic spending(C+I+G)Y Domestic spending(C+I+G)S IS I NCO 0NCO 017第16 页/共47 页International Flowsn n Trade deficit:Exports Imports Net exports 0Net exports 0 Y Domestic spending(C+I+G)Y Domestic spending(C+I+G)S IS I NCO 0NCO 018第17 页/共47 页Internatio

21、nal Flowsn n Balanced trade:Exports=Imports Net exports=0Net exports=0 Y=Domestic spending(C+I+G)Y=Domestic spending(C+I+G)S=IS=I NCO=0NCO=019第18 页/共47 页Table 120International Flows of Goods and Capital:SummaryThis table shows the three possible outcomes for an open economy.第19 页/共47 页Is the U.S.tra

22、de deficit a national problem?n n Past two decadesn nBorrowed heavily in world financial Borrowed heavily in world financial marketsmarketsn nTo finance large trade deficitsTo finance large trade deficitsn n Before 1980n nNational saving&domestic investment National saving&domestic investment were c

23、losewere closen nSmall net capital outflowSmall net capital outflow21第20 页/共47 页Is the U.S.trade deficit a national problem?n n After 1980n nNational saving-fell substantially National saving-fell substantially below investmentbelow investmentn nNet capital outflow-a large negative Net capital outfl

24、ow-a large negative numbernumbern nCapital inflowCapital inflown nU.S.-going into debtU.S.-going into debt22第21 页/共47 页Is the U.S.trade deficit a national problem?n n Changes in capital flowsn nArise from changes in savingArise from changes in savingn nArise from changes in investmentArise from chan

25、ges in investmentn n 1980 to 1987n nIncrease flow of capital(from 0.5 to Increase flow of capital(from 0.5 to 3.6%of GDP)3.6%of GDP)n nDecline in national saving of 2.6 Decline in national saving of 2.6 percentage pointspercentage pointsn n Decline public saving Decline public savingn n Increase in

26、government budget deficit Increase in government budget deficit23第22 页/共47 页Is the U.S.trade deficit a national problem?n n 1991 to 2000n nIncrease flow of capital(from 0.5 to Increase flow of capital(from 0.5 to 3.9%of GDP)3.9%of GDP)n nSaving increased Saving increased n nBudget surplusBudget surp

27、lusn nInvestment increased from 13.4 to Investment increased from 13.4 to 17.7%of GDP17.7%of GDP24第23 页/共47 页Is the U.S.trade deficit a national problem?n n 2000 to 2006n nIncrease in capital flow(to 5.7%o Increase in capital flow(to 5.7%o GDP)GDP)n nInvestment boom abatedInvestment boom abatedn nBu

28、dget deficitsBudget deficitsn nNational saving-fell to extraordinarily National saving-fell to extraordinarily low levelslow levelsn n 2007 to 2009,Trade deficit shrank n n Substantial decline in housing prices Substantial decline in housing pricesn n Deep recession Deep recessionn n Dramatic fall i

29、n investment Dramatic fall in investment25第24 页/共47 页Is the U.S.trade deficit a national problem?n n Trade deficit induced by a fall in savingn nThe nation is putting away less of its The nation is putting away less of its income to provide for its futureincome to provide for its futuren nNo reason

30、to deplore the resulting No reason to deplore the resulting trade deficitstrade deficitsn n Better to have foreigners invest in the U.S.Better to have foreigners invest in the U.S.economy than no one at all economy than no one at all26第25 页/共47 页Is the U.S.trade deficit a national problem?n n Trade

31、deficit induced by an investment boomn nEconomy is borrowing from abroad to Economy is borrowing from abroad to finance the purchase of new capital finance the purchase of new capital goodsgoodsn n For good return on investment-the For good return on investment-the economy should be able to handle t

32、he economy should be able to handle the debts that are being accumulated debts that are being accumulatedn n For lower return on investment-debts For lower return on investment-debts will look less desirable will look less desirable27第26 页/共47 页Figure 228National Saving,Domestic Investment,and Net C

33、apital OutflowPanel(a)shows national saving and domestic investment as a percentage of GDP.You can see from the figure that national saving has been lower since 1980 than it was before 1980.This fall in national saving has been reflected primarily in reduced net capital outflow rather than in reduce

34、d domestic investment.第27 页/共47 页Figure 229National Saving,Domestic Investment,and Net Capital OutflowPanel(b)shows net capital outflow as a percentage of GDP.You can see from the figure that national saving has been lower since 1980 than it was before 1980.This fall in national saving has been refl

35、ected primarily in reduced net capital outflow rather than in reduced domestic investment.第28 页/共47 页Real&Nominal Exchange Ratesn n Nominal exchange raten nRate at which a person can trade currency of one Rate at which a person can trade currency of one country for currency of anothercountry for cur

36、rency of anothern n Appreciation(strengthen)n nIncrease in the value of a currencyIncrease in the value of a currencyn nAs measured by the amount of foreign currency it As measured by the amount of foreign currency it can buycan buyn n Buy more foreign currency Buy more foreign currency30第29 页/共47 页

37、Real&Nominal Exchange Ratesn n Depreciation(weaken)n nDecrease in the value of a currencyDecrease in the value of a currencyn nAs measured by the amount of foreign currency it As measured by the amount of foreign currency it can buycan buyn n Buy less foreign currency Buy less foreign currency 31第30

38、 页/共47 页Real&Nominal Exchange Ratesn n Real exchange raten nRate at which a person can trade goods and services Rate at which a person can trade goods and services of one countryof one countryn nFor goods and services of anotherFor goods and services of another32第31 页/共47 页Real&Nominal Exchange Rate

39、sn n Real exchange rate=(e P)/P*Using price indexesUsing price indexes e nominal exchange rate between the U.S.dollar e nominal exchange rate between the U.S.dollar and foreign currenciesand foreign currencies P price index for U.S.basketP price index for U.S.basket P*price index for foreign basketP

40、*price index for foreign basket33第32 页/共47 页Real&Nominal Exchange Ratesn n Depreciation(fall)in the U.S.real exchange raten nU.S.goods-cheaper relative to foreign goodsU.S.goods-cheaper relative to foreign goodsn nConsumers at home and abroad-buy more U.S.Consumers at home and abroad-buy more U.S.go

41、ods and fewer goods from other countriesgoods and fewer goods from other countriesn n Higher exports Higher exportsn n Lower imports Lower importsn n Higher net exports Higher net exports34第33 页/共47 页Real&Nominal Exchange Ratesn n An appreciation(rise)in the U.S.real exchange raten nU.S.goods-more e

42、xpensive compared to foreign U.S.goods-more expensive compared to foreign goodsgoodsn nConsumers at home and abroad-buy fewer U.S.Consumers at home and abroad-buy fewer U.S.goods and more goods from other countriesgoods and more goods from other countriesn n Lower exports Lower exportsn n Higher imp

43、orts Higher importsn n Lower net exports Lower net exports35第34 页/共47 页Purchasing-Power Parityn n Purchasing-power parity,PPPn nTheory of exchange ratesTheory of exchange ratesn nA unit of any given currencyA unit of any given currencyn n Should be able to buy the same quantity of goods in all Shoul

44、d be able to buy the same quantity of goods in all countries countriesn n Basic logic of purchasing-power parityn nBased on law of one priceBased on law of one pricen nA good must sell for the same price in all locationsA good must sell for the same price in all locations36第35 页/共47 页Purchasing-Powe

45、r Parityn n Arbitragen nTake advantage of price differences for the same Take advantage of price differences for the same item in different marketsitem in different marketsn n Parityn nEqualityEqualityn n Purchasing-powern nValue of money in terms of quantity of goods it can Value of money in terms

46、of quantity of goods it can buybuy37第36 页/共47 页Implications of PPPn n If purchasing power of the dollarn nIs always the same at home and abroadIs always the same at home and abroadn nThen the real exchange rate cannot changeThen the real exchange rate cannot changen n Theory of purchasing-power pari

47、tyn nNominal exchange rate between the currencies of Nominal exchange rate between the currencies of two countriestwo countriesn nMust reflect the price levels in those countriesMust reflect the price levels in those countries38第37 页/共47 页Nominal exchange rate during a hyperinflationn n Natural expe

48、riment hyperinflationn nHigh inflationHigh inflationn nArises when a government prints Arises when a government prints money to pay for large amounts of money to pay for large amounts of government spendinggovernment spendingn n German hyperinflation,early 1920sn nMoney supply,price level,nominal Mo

49、ney supply,price level,nominal exchange rateexchange raten n Move closely together Move closely together39第38 页/共47 页Nominal exchange rate during a hyperinflationn n German hyperinflation,early 1920sn nMoney supply-starts growing quicklyMoney supply-starts growing quicklyn n Price level starts growi

50、ng Price level starts growingn n Depreciation Depreciationn nMoney supply-stabilizesMoney supply-stabilizesn n Price level stabilizes Price level stabilizesn n Exchange rate stabilizes Exchange rate stabilizes 40第39 页/共47 页Nominal exchange rate during a hyperinflationn n Quantity theory of moneyn nE