ofEconomicGrowth(宏观经济学-加州大学-詹姆斯·xjn.pptx
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1、CHAPTER 4The Theory of Economic Growth1Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Questions What are the principal determinants of long-run economic growth?What equilibrium condition is useful in analyzing long-run growth?How quickly does an economy head for its steady-state
2、 growth path?2Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Questions What effect does faster population growth have on long-run growth?What effect does a higher savings rate have on long-run growth?3Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Long-Run E
3、conomicGrowth.is the most important aspect of how the economy performs can be accelerated by good economic policies can be retarded by bad economic policies4Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Long-Run Economic Growth Policies and initial conditions affect growth thro
4、ugh two channelstheir impact on the level of technology multiplies the efficiency of labortheir impact on the capital intensity of the economy the stock of machines,equipment,and buildings that the average worker has at his or her disposal5Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights r
5、eserved.Technology leads to a higher efficiency of laborskills and education of the labor forceability of the labor force to handle modern machinesthe efficiency with which the economys businesses and markets function Economists are good at analyzing the consequences of better technologyhave less to
6、 say about the sources 6Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Capital Intensity There is a direct relationship between capital-intensity and productivity Two principal determinantsinvestment effort the share of total production saved and invested in order to increase th
7、e capital stockinvestment requirements how much of new investment is used to equip new workers with the standard level of capital or to replace worn-out or obsolete capital7Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Standard Growth Model Also called the Solow model Steady-st
8、ate balanced-growth equilibriumthe capital intensity of the economy is stablethe economys capital stock and level of real GDP are growing at the same ratethe economys capital-output ratio is constant8Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Standard Growth Model First comp
9、onent is the production functiontells us how the productive resources of the economy can be used to produce and determine the level of output Cobb-Douglas production function9Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Standard Growth Model Parameters of the modelE is the eff
10、iciency of labor a higher level of E means that more output per worker can be produced for each possible value of the capital stock per worker measures how fast diminishing marginal returns to investment set in10Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Standard Growth Mode
11、l 0 1a level of near zero means that the extra amount of output made possible by each additional unit of capital declines very quickly as the capital stock increases11Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Figure 4.1-The Cobb-Douglas Production Function for Parameter Nea
12、r Zero12Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Standard Growth Model 0 1a level of near one means that the next additional unit of capital makes possible almost as large an increase in output as the last unit of capitala level of equal to one means that changes in output
13、 are proportional to changes in capital13Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Figure 4.2-The Cobb-Douglas Production Function for Parameter Near 114Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Figure 4.3-The Cobb-Douglas Production Function is Fl
14、exible15Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Standard Growth Model Growth in labor force(L)assume that L is growing at a constant rate(n)if this years labor force is equal to 10 million and the growth rate is 2%per year,next years labor force will be16Copyright 2002 by
15、 The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Figure 4.4-Constant Proportional Labor-Force Growth(at Rate n=2 Percent per Year)17Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Standard Growth Model Growth in the efficiency of labor(E)assume that E is growing at a constant p
16、roportional rate(g)if this years efficiency of labor is$10,000 and the growth rate is 1.5%per year,next years efficiency of labor will be18Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Figure 4.5-Constant Proportional Growthin the Efficiency of Labor(at Rate g=1.5 Percent per Y
17、ear)19Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Standard Growth Model Saving and investmentassume that a constant share of real GDP is saved and invested each year(s)capital stock does not grow by full amount of gross investment represents the fraction of the capital stock
18、that wears out or is scrapped each year20Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Figure 4.6-Changes in the Capital Stock21Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Standard Growth Model An example of capital accumulationcurrent real GDP=$8 trilli
19、oncurrent capital stock=$24 trillionsavings rate=20%depreciation rate=4%22Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Figure 4.7-Additions to and Subtractions from the Capital Stock23Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Summary of Standard Growt
20、h Model Three assumptionslabor force grows at proportional rate nefficiency of labor grows at proportional rate gthere is a constant proportion of real GDP saved and invested each year(s)The capital stock changes over time due to investment and depreciation Cobb-Douglas production function 24Copyrig
21、ht 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Equilibrium in Standard Growth Model Key economic variables in the growth model are never constant Equilibrium occurs when the variables are growing together at the same proportional rate Steady-state balanced growthoccurs when the capital
22、-output ratio is constant over time25Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Three Mathematical Rules The proportional growth rate of a product(P Q)is the sum of the proportional growth rates of each P and Q The proportional growth rate of a quotient(E/Q)is the difference
23、 of the proportional growth rates of the dividend(E)and the divisor(Q)26Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Three Mathematical Rules The proportional growth rate of a quantity raised to an exponent(Qy)is equal to the exponent(y)times the growth rates of the quantity(Q
24、)27Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Growth of Capital per Worker The proportional growth rate of capital per worker g(kt)is Since this is a growth rate of a quotient,it will be equal to the growth rate of capital minus the growth rate of labor(n)28Copyright 2002 by
25、 The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Figure 4.8-Calculating the Proportional Growth Rate of the Capital-per-Worker Ratio29Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Growth of Capital per Worker The growth rate of capital stock is Next years capital stock is Mak
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