经济学管理学基础知识及其应用.pdf

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1、和 君 咨 询 集 团 经济学管理学基础知识及其应用资料选读Table of ContentsA Note On Frameworks.Strategic Tools&Frameworks.Economics Frameworks.Finance&Accounting Frameworks.Sample Cases.An Introduction.Sample Case&Suggested Solution.Profitability Cases.Market Entry&General Strategy Cases.More Case Questions To Try.Market Sizi

2、ng&Estimation Cases.More Market Sizing&Estimation Cases To Try.Brainteasers.Cases With Slides.A Note OnFrameworksBy the time you face a client,we would like you to feel very confident that you can listen to adescription of a situation,and rapidly put together a systematic,logical way of analyzing it

3、.As aconsultant,the first important thing is how well you break a problem down and then logically try tosolve it.We want you to be able to say to yourself,*Tve done this for several cases;I know I candeal with it.*A framework can guide your intelligent questioning of the clients,lets youlay out your

4、 analysis in a coherent manner,and lets you apply yourexperience to the case by pointing out how the case is an instance of amore general problem to which your experience applies.We cannot overemphasize that this is a skill developed through practice.There is no substitute forconfronting a case,buil

5、ding your own systematic way to analyze it,then improving your modelthrough discussions with others.Never be afraid to expose your model to others for fear that it iscrude,incomplete,or wrong.All frameworks have holes in them.Thafs the whole point ofpracticingto learn how to improve your initial mod

6、els so that you will have a richer and moresophisticated set of organizing schemas to draw upon.What is a framework?The world is confusing,and to understand cause-effect relationships,we have to distill mostproblems to their essence.Thafs what theory does,highlight the most important aspects of asit

7、uation that account for most of the variance between specific instances of the situation.You might call these important aspects drivers or critical success factorsM or“independentvariables.If our model of the world is almost as complex as the world itself,it is not veryusefulmodels help us understan

8、d and predict only when they strip a problem down to something wecan grasp,a small set of key driving forces that we can focus on while ignoring other things that havefar less explanatory power.If you give a manager a checklist of 37 things to focus on,s/he simplycannot grasp the essence of the prob

9、lem.If you can highlight a much smaller number of drivers andarticulate the relationships among them,s/he not only can grasp the problem but can apply thoseinsights to other,similar problems.Frameworks-or call them models,analytical schemas,analytical lenses,conceptual maps,etc.一show the key cause a

10、nd effect relationships that you think a person should focus on to approach agiven situation.They apply to a general class of problems;each case is a specific instance of aproblem class.The acid test of whether a framework is useful is that it both2explains and predicts.It helps you understand what

11、is going on in this case and draw appropriateanalogies to other cases that exemplify the same problem class.It helps you predict what will happenif the client takes a given course of action,and test your prediction by seeing how other cases in thesame problem class turn out.These predictions are hyp

12、otheses-they are insights into what wouldfollow if the world worked the way your model suggests.You should not try to follow a recipe when constructing frameworks.There are many,many ways toorganize an approach to a problem,identify the key drivers,and articulate the relationships amongthem.However,

13、some of these organizing structures are weak.I will give you a few suggestions herepurely to stimulate your thinking,not because they represent the“best”frameworks.Checklists.The weakest framework is the checklist.Simply telling managers,Here aresome things to think about,n does not help much.A chec

14、klist does extract someelements from the problem for managers to focus on,but it does not provide muchinsight into the nature of the problem,nor does it show the relationship among theelements.SWOT Analyses.One step up from a checklist,and still a weak framework in myhumble view,is a SWOT(Strengths,

15、Weaknesses,Opportunities,and Threats)analysis.This is basically a checklist supplemented by upros and cons.Again,it doesnot provide a lot of insight into the cause-effect relationships in the problem,and it doesnot show a relationship among those elements.The Familiar Frameworks.Let me pause for a m

16、oment here and suggest that I do notthink much of the“7S”framework McKinsey used(that is in the heart of In Search ofExcellence)when it is used simply as a checklist.Similarly,it is a misuse of Porters fiveforces model simply to use the forces as topic headings.Porter lays out many causalconnections

17、 between each force and industry structure;it is the causal connections,notthe list of five forces in and of itself,which is of intellectual value.Articulating the three generic strategies(cost leadership,differentiation-broadmarket,and differentiation-narrow market)is not very interesting;what is i

18、nterestingis the notion that being“stuck in the middle does not work.Breaking a problem downinto business processes of value chains represents progress only if you can articulatesomething about the interrelationships among those processes or links.Matrices.A popular framework that is often misused i

19、s a matrix,from the hoary 2x2 tothe sophisticated multi-dimensional matrices.Drawing a matrix does not in itselfconstitute building a framework.What matters is whether you can articulate how thecells are different in some systematic way.“Fit”Frameworks.Somewhat more sophisticated is a it framework.F

20、or example,youwere exposed to the Tushman-Nadler diagnostic model in Organizational Behavior.Theidea is that the organization works only when it achieves congruence between itsinternal structure and the environment,and congruence among its internal elements.For example,and Horganicn structure may re

21、present a better fit in a turbulentenvironment that a“mechanistic“structure,which works better in more predictableenvironments.Similarly,a low-cost producer cannot afford heavy R&D investments,while a firm pursuingfirst-mover strategy cannot compete on the basis of efficiency.To use this kind of fra

22、mework,you need to spell-out the elements and what kinds of congruent configurations they canform.3Decision Trees.An excellent framework is a decision tree.You have had considerablepractice constructing these during your first year,and decision trees have a good deal ofrigor and value,especially in

23、forcing you to identify contingencies.Those of youinterviewing with McKinsey will find that decision trees are looked on with great favorthere.Causal models.An often less formal framework than a decision tree is a causal model,that essentially shows the cause and effect relationships between a set o

24、f drivers.These models tend to oversimplify contingencies,but nonetheless can addconsiderable clarity to your thinking.The most formal kind of cause model you couldpropose is a multivariate equation,which with absolute precision and clarity specifieswhat you think the drivers are,how they affect the

25、 outcome,and what the functionalform of their impact would look like.Some causal models specify the dynamics of a situation,often by uncoveringinterlocking cycles of a behavior over time.Again,the point is not that such models areperfect over time,but cyclical behavior is very common in the world,an

26、d powerfulinsights can be gained from identifying interlocking cycles that dampen and/or reinforceone another.With imagination and insight,you will create other types of frameworks.What all good frameworkshave in common is that they identify the drivers of a situation and specify both the interrelat

27、ionshipsamong those drivers and how they affect important outcomes.Strategic Tools&FrameworksGeneral marketing,strategy and operationsconcepts for use in consultingGeneral Tools For ConsultingThe list presented in the following sections,though not exhaustive,covers most of the standard toolsyou will

28、 use in consulting.Use these tools to think about the key issues and to lead you from the factsto a conclusion.As you look at these tools,though,remember that no framework or tool is as good as an originalframework or tool.Play with these ideas and frameworks until you develop a set of your ownframe

29、works that you feel comfortable using.Finally,pay attention to how logically you structure your proposal or answer.This is a bit morestraightforward to learn than the frameworks,but is no less important.An example of a structure foryour interaction is:1.State or restate the problem.2.Identify the ke

30、y issues for further investigation.3.Apply the relevant frameworks.44.Summarize and provide a recommendation.It may also be useful todiscuss implications of your recommendation such as competitivereactions and acceptance within the client organization.The Five ForcesMichael Porter*s Five Forces”Mode

31、l for industry structure and attractiveness analysis is a classicanalysis for cases that involve a decision as to whether to invest in or enter a given industry.The fiveforces are:Threat Of New EntrantsThreat Of SubstitutesSupplier PowerBuyer PowerIndustry RivalryThreat Of New Entrants.This force me

32、asures the ease with which new competitorsmay enter the market and disrupt the position of other firms.The threat that outsiderswill enter a market is stronger when the barriers to entry are low or when incumbentswill not fight to prevent a newcomer from gaining a market foothold.In addition,when an

33、ewcomer can expect to earn an attractive profit,the barriers to entry are diminished.Threat of Substitutes.The threat posed by substitute products is strong when thefeatures of substitutes are attractive,switching costs are low,and buyers believesubstitutes have equal or better features.Supplier Pow

34、er.Suppliers to an industry are a strong competitive force wheneverthey have sufficient bargaining power to command a price premium for their materialsor components.Suppliers also have more power when they can affect competitionamong industry rivals by the reliability of their deliveries or by the q

35、uality andperformance of the items they supply.Buyer Power.Buyers become a stronger competitive force the more they are able toexercise bargaining leverage over price,quality,service,or other terms or conditions ofsale.Buyers gain strength through their sheer size and when the purchase is critical t

36、othe sellers success.Industry Rivalry.Often,the most powerful of the five forces is the competitive battleamong rivals that are already in the industry.The intensity with which competitors jockeyfor position and competitive advantages indicates the strength of the influence of thisforce.Although thi

37、s model can provide a lot of insight into an industry,beware of becoming too dependenton Porter in your case interviews.Also,make sure you understand the underlying drivers of theforces,and why and how they create varied competitive environments.In addition,you may wish toadd to this framework any e

38、xternal impacts from government/political factors and technologychanges.The Three Cs(Or Is It 7?)This simple framework can be helpful for marketing cases as a simple way to begin looking into acompanys position in the market.The first three Cs rarely get to all of the issues,but they doprovide a bro

39、ad framework to get the analysis started.The last four Cs may be useful additions tofurther your analysis.As you practice cases,begin to develop a series of potential questions related5to each C that will help you to“drill down further towards the root causes of the problem at hand.Some examples are

40、 given for the first 3 Cs below.CustomerWhat is the unmet need?Which segment are we/should we target?Are they price sensitive?CompetitionWhat are strengths/weaknesses?How many are there and how concentrated are they?Are there existing or potential substitutes?CompanyWhat are its strengths/weaknesses

41、?Where in the value chain do we add value?CostCapacityCultureCompetenceThe 4 PsThis framework is suitable for marketing implementation cases.It is not usually appropriate forbeginning the analysis,but it can be very helpful when you discuss implementation to make surethat you cover all of the issues

42、.ProductPromotionPricePlace(distribution channel)Value Chain AnalysisThis analysis can provide a good outline for analyzing a companys internal operations and the valueof each step in making a product or service go from raw materials to a finished good or service.Valuechains vary dramatically for ev

43、ery industry,but here are two examples that can be customized:67Value chain analyses step you through the companys processes and help you understand how muchvalue each step adds.Through this type of analysis,you can discern possible synergies amongvarious units of an organization and determine which

44、 value activities are best outsourced and whichare best developed internally.It can also show you where there may be potential to remove a step inthe process that adds little value.Finally,it may uncover where a company is weak and thusvulnerable.Primary Activities.Create the product or service,deli

45、ver it to the market,create ademand for the product,and provide after-sale support.The categories of primaryactivities are inbound logistics,operations,outbound logistics,marketing and sales,and service.Support Activities.Provide the input and infrastructure that allow the primary activitiesto take

46、place.The categories are company infrastructure,human resourcemanagement,information systems,and procurement.Vertical IntegrationSome companies find beneficial to integrate backward(towards their suppliers)or forward(towardstheir customers).Vertical integration makes sense when a company requires gr

47、eater control of asupplier or buyer that has major impact on its product cost or when the existing relationship involves ahigh level of asset specificity.SWOT AnalysisThis is another basic framework that may be helpful in structuring an analysis about a companysposition and the external environment.

48、StrengthsWeaknessesOpportunitisThreatsAs with the three Cs,this framework provides a start,but is rarely sufficient to analyze thoroughly acase.BCG MatrixThis matrix,sometimes referred-to as the growth/share matrix,is named after its originator,theBoston Consulting Group.It provides insight into the

49、 corporate strategy of a firm and the positioning ofeach of its business units.The two variables being analyzed are market share and industry growth.The matrix often looks like the following:Market ShareIndustryGrowthRateLowHighQuestion MarkHighLowThe strategies associated with this matrix are to ho

50、ld stars,build question marks,harvest cash cows,and divest dogs.In other words,as a corporation looks at its business units,it should use cash cowsto provide funds to build its question marks and to maintain its stars.It should sell its dog businessesto keep them from dragging-down the others.This f