中美贸易对中国经济增长的影响.docx

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1、American Journal of Industrial and Business Management, 2014, 4, 295-306 Published Online June 2014 in SciRes. http:/www.scirp.org/journal/ajibm http:/dx.doi.org/10.4236/ajibm.2014.46037 The Impacts of Sino-US Trade on Chinas Economic Growth Hao Xie Shanghai-Hongkong Development Institute, Fudan Uni

2、versity, Shanghai, China Email: Received 22 April 2014; revised 22 May 2014; accepted 12 June 2014 Copyright 2014 by author and Scientific Research Publishing Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). http:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

3、Abstract China has witnessed many exciting changes after the Chinese government adopted reform and opening-up policy in 1978. In this process, the United States has a positive influence on Chinas economic growth. Traditional view thinks that the influence of exports on Chinas GDP growth is greater t

4、han imports, but the result of regression analysis shows that imports have a greater im- pact on Chinas GDP growth rather than the exports. Based on the statistics from 1998-2007, Chi- nas GDP will increase by 0.455% if the volume of Chinas exports to US increases by 1% while Chinas GDP will increas

5、e by 0.825% if the volume of Chinas imports from US increases by 1%. Keywords China, The United States, Economic Growth 1. Introduction Since the Chinese government adopted reform and opening-up policy in 1978, bilateral trade has become an important way for China and the United States to communicat

6、e with each other. Therefore, the economic influ- ence of the United States cannot be ignored in the process of Chinas economic growth. Andrea believes that the international trade could guarantee the process of capital accumulation and promote economic growth 1. Lewer and Berg also believe that fre

7、e trade obviously has a positive influence on eco- nomic growth 2. Dong compares the development track of Chinas foreign trade and Chinas economic growth and concludes that there is a two-way causal relationship between Chinas foreign trade and Chinas economic growth 3. While Yao thinks that there i

8、s no generally accepted method which can be used to measure the im- pact of foreign trade on Chinas GDP growth 4. Shen and Gu hold the point of view that China should not simply rely on the exports of labor-intensive products and on the processing trade to promote its trade and GDP. Instead, China s

9、hould move toward producing technology-intensive and capital-intensive products 5. How to cite this paper: Xie, H. (2014) The Impacts of Sino-US Trade on Chinas Economic Growth. American Journal of In- dustrial and Business Management, 4, 295-306. http:/dx.doi.org/10.4236/ajibm.2014.46037 H. Xie 296

10、 This paper will analyze the relations between Chinas economic growth and Sino-US trade. The paper uses the economic statistics from 1997-2008 for the following reasons. Firstly, the Asian Financial Crisis occurred in 1997 and it seriously affected Chinas normal trade with other countries in the nex

11、t year. In order to safeguard regional security and stability, the Chinese government made a painful decision not to devalue the RMB, which imposed China tremendous pressure. At the same time, the Chinese government changed its economic policy to expand domestic demand and stimulate economic growth

12、in order to ensure the stability of RMB exchange rate. Secondly, Chinese economy slowed down after the Asian Financial Crisis for the Chinese government adopted the deflation economic policy, which can be seen as a turning point in the history of Chinese economy. Thirdly, the year of 2008 witnessed

13、the global financial crisis resulted from the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. The real economy around the whole world has immense downward momentum under the influence of that. Hence a new round of trade relations between China and the United States began after the year of 2008. Thus,

14、 this paper chooses a time series model from 1998 to 2007. The statistics can reflect economic relations between China and the United States as well as the impact of the Sino-US trade on Chinas economic growth during this period. 2. The Relations between Chinas Economic Growth and Sino-US Trade Volu

15、me In order to make an in-depth analysis of the relations between Chinas economic growth and Sino-US trade vo- lume, this paper adopts the annual data of Chinese GDP, Sino-US total trade and Chinas exports and imports to the United States (see Table 1). Firstly, three line graphs (see Figures 1-3) a

16、re made on the basis of the above statistics. It is not difficult to find that all of the four variables (Chinas GDP, total trade with US, Chinas exports to US and Chinas imports from US) have shown an upward trend. What is more, their fluctuations and trends are quite similar. Thus, a hypothesis ca

17、n be put forward that there is some inner relation between the above four variables. Secondly, in order to test if Chinas GDP has a linear relationship with the volume of total trade with US or Chinas exports to US or the volume of Chinas imports from US, three scatter plots can be made (see Figures

18、 4-6) and the re- sult shows that Chinas GDP has a linear relationship with the volume of total trade with US, the volume of Chinas export to US and the volume of Chinas imports from US. After analyzing the line graphs and scatter plots, it can be concluded that Chinas GDP does have a linear relatio

19、nship with the volume of total trade with US, the volume of Chinas export to US and the volume of Chinas imports from US, Moreover, the figure shapes of the graphs and plots can also be described. However, the problem lies in the degree of closeness be- tween each other. In that case, the correlatio

20、n coefficient between Chinas GDP and the volume of total trade with US or the volume of Chinas exports to US or the volume of Chinas imports from US should be figured out in order to verify the hypothesis. Table 1. Chinas GDP and Chinas trade with the United States from 1998 to 2007 ($ billion). Chi

21、nas GDP Total Trade with US Chinas Exports to US Chinas Imports from US 1998 1019.5 85.5 71.2 14.3 1999 1083.3 94.9 81.8 13.1 2000 1198.5 116.3 100.0 16.3 2001 1324.8 121.5 102.3 19.2 2002 1453.8 147.3 125.2 22.1 2003 1641.0 180.8 152.4 28.4 2004 1931.6 231.4 196.7 34.7 2005 2243.7 285.3 243.5 41.8

22、2006 2644.6 343.0 287.8 55.2 2007 3250.8 386.7 321.5 65.2 Sources: International Monetary Fund & US International Trade Commission, US Department of Commerce, and US Census Bureau. H. Xie 297 Chinas GDP Total Trade with US $ Billion$ Billion$ Billion$ Billion3500.0 450.0 3000.0 400.0 350.0 2500.0 30

23、0.0 2000.0 250.0 1500.0 200.0 1000.0 150.0 100.0 500.0 50.0 0.0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year 0.0 Figure 1. Chinas GDP & total trade with US. 3500.0 350.0 3000.0 300.0 2500.0 250.0 2000.0 200.0 Chinas GDP Chinas Exports to US 1500.0 150.0 1000.0 100.0 500.0 50.0 0.0 1998 199

24、9 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year 0.0 Figure 2. Chinas GDP & Chinas exports to US. 3. How to Determine the Correlation Coefficient between Chinas GDP and Sino-US Trade Volume The Correlation Coefficient can show the strength and direction of linear relations between two random va- riabl

25、es. The formula of Correlation Coefficient Formula is: x x y y r n x x 2 y y 2 n n Note: n represents the number of items; x is independent variable and y is dependent variable. H. Xie 298 $ Billion$ Billion(Total Trade) $ Billion3500.0 70.0 3000.0 60.0 2500.0 50.0 2000.0 40.0 Chinas GDP Chinas Impo

26、rts from US 1500.0 30.0 1000.0 20.0 500.0 10.0 0.0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year 0.0 Figure 3. Chinas GDP & Chinas imports from US. 450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 500.0 1000.0 1500.0 2000.0 2500.0 3000.0 3500.0 $ Billion (GDP) Figure 4. Chinas G

27、DP & total trade with US. This paper calculates the Correlation Coefficient between Chinas GDP and the volume of total trade with US and the result shows that the Correlation Coefficient between them is 0.992. It is necessary to carry out the cor- relation test. The paper assumes that there is no li

28、near relationship between Chinas GDP and the volume of total trade with US: H0 : 0, H1 : 0 T r n 2 1 r 2Note: The paper use two-tailed tests and set a statistical significance level at 0.05. After calculating relative data, the result proves that the value of T is much bigger than the value of t/ 2

29、, and H. Xie 299 $ Billion(Imports) $ Billion (Exports) 350.0 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 500.0 1000.0 1500.0 2000.0 2500.0 3000.0 3500.0 $ Billion (GDP) Figure 5. Chinas GDP & Chinas exports to US. 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 500.0 1000.0 1500.0 2000.0 2500.0 3000.0 35

30、00.0 $ Billion (GDP) Figure 6. Chinas GDP & Chinas imports from US. P-value is 1.7366E08, which is significantly less than 0.05. Both results do not meet the original assumption. Thus, a conclusion can be made that there is a high positive correlation between Chinas GDP and the volume of total trade

31、 with US. The paper also uses the same research method to calculate the Correlation Coefficient be- tween Chinas GDP and Chinas exports to US and the Correlation Coefficient between Chinas GDP and Chi- nas imports from US. The Correlation Coefficient between Chinas GDP and Chinas exports to US is 0.

32、990. After carrying out the correlation text, the value of T is much bigger than the value of 4.68376E08, which is also obviously less than 0.05. t/ 2 and the P-value, The Correlation Coefficient between Chinas GDP and Chinas imports from US is 0.997. The results show that the value of T is still bi

33、gger than the value of t/ 2 and this P-value is 5.11328E10 which is also signifi- cantly less than 0.05. Therefore, this correlative analysis indicates that the high positive correlation can be ob- H. Xie 300 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper

34、95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% served not only between Chinas GDP and Chinas exports to US but also between Chinas GDP and Chinas imports from US. Here, it is worth noting that the Correlation Coefficient of Chinas GDP and Chinas imports from US, 0.997, is the highest among those three different Correl

35、ation Coefficients. 4. A Regression Analysis between Chinas GDP and Sino-US Trade Volume The analyses of Correlation Coefficient of Chinas GDP, Chinas exports to US and Chinas imports from US have proven that there are three different kinds of high positive correlations between them. Thus, it is pos

36、sible to use the method of Ordinary Least Square (OLS) to make a regression analysis (see Table 2). Firstly, it is as- sumed that the influence of other factors on Chinas economic growth is stable. Secondly, Chinas GDP is re- garded as a dependent variable and the total trade with US is also regarde

37、d as an independent variable. Then, a simple linear regression model is created: yc a bx n xy x y xy x y b nx2 x2 2 y x a b y bx n n Note: xy xy n According to the data of Table 2, the R Square is 0.984. The value of F is 496.746 which is big enough. The result of the test for linear relation indica

38、tes that the regression effect of the simple linear regression model is significant. Moreover, both results of t-test (22.288) and P-value (1.7366E08) reveal that the influence of one independent variable on the other dependent variable is significant. In other words, Chinas total trade with US does

39、 have a significant influence on Chinas GDP. Therefore, a simple linear regression model is figured out which reflects predictable relations between Chinas GDP and its total trade with US: yc 424.726 6.797x or Chinas GDP = 424.726 + 6.797 Total Tarde with US Similarly, Ordinary Least Square (OLS) ca

40、n be taken to make regression analysis and calculate other two kinds of simple linear regression models. It is still assumed that the influence of other factors on Chinas eco- Table 2. Regression analysis of Chinas GDP and total trade with US (1998-2007). SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multipl

41、e R 0.992043563 R Square 0.984150431 Adjusted R Square 0.982169235 Standard Error 98.3635241 Observations 10 Regression 1 4806203.801 4806203.801 496.7455928 1.7366E08 Residual 8 77403.06299 9675.382874 Total 9 4883606.864 Intercept 424.7255501 68.26830044 6.221416783 0.000253451 267.2985671 582.152

42、5331 267.2985671 582.1525331 X Variable 1 6.796981231 0.30496434 22.28779022 1.7366E-08 6.093732203 7.500230259 6.093732203 7.500230259 H. Xie 301 nomic growth is stable. Next, Chinas GDP is seen as a dependent variable and the volume of Chinas exports to US is also seen as an independent variable,

43、or Chinas GDP is regarded as a dependent variable and Chinas imports from US is regarded as an independent variable. In this case, the following simple linear regression models can be made. Chinas GDP = 410.125 + 8.137 Chinas Exports to US Chinas GDP = 515.680 + 40.718 Chinas Imports from US If thes

44、e simple linear regression models are analyzed only from the perspective of mathematics, Chinas GDP will increase by an average of $6.797 billion if the volume of total trade with US increases by $1 billion; Chi- nas GDP will increase by an average of $8.137 billion if the volume of Chinas exports t

45、o US increases by $1 billion; Chinas GDP will increase by an average of $40.718 billion if the volume of Chinas imports from US increases by $1 billion. The information shows that the correlation between Chinas GDP and Chinas imports from US is stronger than the correlation between Chinas GDP and Ch

46、inas exports to US or between Chinas GDP and total trade with US Moreover, its regression coefficient is 40.718 which is 32.581 higher than the re- gression coefficient of Chinas GDP and Chinas exports to US. 5. A Re-Examination of the Regression Analysis between Chinas GDP and Sino-US Trade Volume

47、However, the period from 1998 to 2007 may not a good time series for it only has ten observations. So, it is ne- cessary to choose a long time series to test whether the same result can be reached that the correlation between Chinas GDP and Chinas imports from US is stronger than the correlation bet

48、ween Chinas GDP and Chinas exports to US. In that case, a longer span from 1978 to 2007 is chosen for the test (see Table 3). Two line graphs are made in the same way (see Figure 7, Figure 8). It is obvious to notice that the upward trend of Chi- nas GDP is quite similar with the trend of Chinas exports to US and the trend of Chinas imports from US. So it is reasonable to assume there are some relations among those variables during that period. Then, in order to test whether Chinas GDP has linear relations with