管理学课件第6章制定决策管理者工作的本质(Decision-mgr.pptx

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1、Chapter 6Decision-Making:The Essence of the Managers Job(制定决策：管理者工作的本质制定决策：管理者工作的本质)1Decision MakingDecision(Decision(定义定义)Making a choice from two or more alternatives.Making a choice from two or more alternatives.The Decision-Making Process(The Decision-Making Process(决策过程决策过程)Identifying a proble

2、m and decision criteria and Identifying a problem and decision criteria and allocating weights to the criteria.allocating weights to the criteria.Developing,analyzing,and selecting an alternative Developing,analyzing,and selecting an alternative that can resolve the problem.that can resolve the prob

3、lem.Implementing the selected alternative.Implementing the selected alternative.Evaluating the decisions effectiveness.Evaluating the decisions effectiveness.2Exhibit 61Exhibit 61The Decision-Making ProcessThe Decision-Making Process3Step 1:Identifying the ProblemProblemProblemA discrepancy between

4、an existing and desired state A discrepancy between an existing and desired state of affairs.of affairs.Characteristics of ProblemsCharacteristics of ProblemsA problem becomes a problem when a manager A problem becomes a problem when a manager becomes aware of it.becomes aware of it.There is pressur

5、e to solve the problem.There is pressure to solve the problem.The manager must have the authority,information,or The manager must have the authority,information,or resources needed to solve the problem.resources needed to solve the problem.4Step 2:Identifying Decision CriteriaDecision criteria are f

6、actors that are important Decision criteria are factors that are important(relevant)to resolving the problem.(relevant)to resolving the problem.Costs that will be incurred(investments required)Costs that will be incurred(investments required)Risks likely to be encountered(chance of failure)Risks lik

7、ely to be encountered(chance of failure)Outcomes that are desired(growth of the firm)Outcomes that are desired(growth of the firm)Step 3:Allocating Weights to the CriteriaDecision criteria are not of equal importance:Decision criteria are not of equal importance:Assigning a weight to each item place

8、s the items in Assigning a weight to each item places the items in the correct priority order of their importance in the the correct priority order of their importance in the decision making process.decision making process.5Exhibit 62Exhibit 62 Criteria and Weights for Computer Replacement DecisionC

9、riteria and Weights for Computer Replacement DecisionCriterion WeightMemory and Storage 10Battery life 8Carrying Weight 6Warranty 4Display Quality 36Step 4:Developing AlternativesIdentifying viable alternativesIdentifying viable alternativesAlternatives are listed(without evaluation)that can Alterna

10、tives are listed(without evaluation)that can resolve the problem.resolve the problem.Step 5:Analyzing AlternativesAppraising each alternatives strengths and Appraising each alternatives strengths and weaknessesweaknessesAn alternatives appraisal is based on its ability to An alternatives appraisal i

11、s based on its ability to resolve the issues identified in steps 2 and 3.resolve the issues identified in steps 2 and 3.7Exhibit 63Exhibit 63 Assessed Values of Laptop Computers Assessed Values of Laptop Computers Using Decision CriteriaUsing Decision Criteria8Step 6:Selecting an AlternativeChoosing

12、 the best alternativeChoosing the best alternativeThe alternative with the highest total weight is chosen.The alternative with the highest total weight is chosen.Step 7:Implementing the AlternativePutting the chosen alternative into action.Putting the chosen alternative into action.Conveying the dec

13、ision to and gaining commitment Conveying the decision to and gaining commitment from those who will carry out the decision.from those who will carry out the decision.9Exhibit 64Exhibit 64 Evaluation of Laptop Alternatives Evaluation of Laptop Alternatives Against Weighted CriteriaAgainst Weighted C

14、riteria10Step 8:Evaluating the Decisions EffectivenessThe soundness of the decision is judged by its The soundness of the decision is judged by its outcomes.outcomes.How effectively was the problem resolved by How effectively was the problem resolved by outcomes resulting from the chosen alternative

15、s?outcomes resulting from the chosen alternatives?If the problem was not resolved,what went wrong?If the problem was not resolved,what went wrong?11Exhibit 65Exhibit 65 Decisions in the Management FunctionsDecisions in the Management Functions12Making DecisionsRationalityRationality（理性）（理性）Managers

16、make consistent,value-maximizing Managers make consistent,value-maximizing choices with specified constraints.choices with specified constraints.Assumptions are that decision makers:Assumptions are that decision makers:vvAre perfectly rational,fully objective,and logical.Are perfectly rational,fully

17、 objective,and logical.vvHave carefully defined the problem and identified all viable Have carefully defined the problem and identified all viable alternatives.alternatives.vvHave a clear and specific goalHave a clear and specific goalvvWill select the alternative that maximizes outcomes in the Will

18、 select the alternative that maximizes outcomes in the organizations interests rather than in their personal interests.organizations interests rather than in their personal interests.13Exhibit 66Exhibit 66 Assumptions of RationalityAssumptions of Rationality14Making Decisions(contd)Bounded Rationali

19、tyBounded Rationality（有限理性）（有限理性）Managers make decisions rationally,but are limited Managers make decisions rationally,but are limited(bounded)by their ability to process information.(bounded)by their ability to process information.Assumptions are that decision makers:Assumptions are that decision m

20、akers:vvWill not seek out or have knowledge of all alternativesWill not seek out or have knowledge of all alternativesvvWill Will satisficesatisficechoose the first alternative encountered that choose the first alternative encountered that satisfactorily solves the problemrather than maximize the sa

21、tisfactorily solves the problemrather than maximize the outcome of their decision by considering all alternatives and outcome of their decision by considering all alternatives and choosing the best.choosing the best.Influence on decision makingInfluence on decision makingvvEscalation of commitmentEs

22、calation of commitment (承诺升级承诺升级):an increased):an increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong.may have been wrong.15The Role of Intuition（直觉的作用）（直觉的作用）Intuitive decision makingIntuitive decision

23、making（直觉决策）（直觉决策）Making decisions on the basis of experience,Making decisions on the basis of experience,feelings,and accumulated judgment.feelings,and accumulated judgment.16Exhibit 67Exhibit 67 What is Intuition?What is Intuition?Source:Based on L.A.Burke and M.K.Miller,“Taking the Mystery Out of

24、 Intuitive Decision Making,”Academy of Management Executive,October 1999,pp.9199.17Types of Problems and DecisionsStructured ProblemsStructured Problems（结构良好的问题）（结构良好的问题）Involve goals that clear.Involve goals that clear.Are familiar(have occurred before).Are familiar(have occurred before).Are easily

25、 and completely definedinformation about Are easily and completely definedinformation about the problem is available and complete.the problem is available and complete.Programmed DecisionProgrammed Decision（程序化决策）（程序化决策）A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine A repetitive decision tha

26、t can be handled by a routine approach.approach.18Types of Programmed DecisionsPolicyPolicyA general guideline for making a decision about a A general guideline for making a decision about a structured problem.structured problem.ProcedureProcedureA series of interrelated steps that a manager can use

27、 A series of interrelated steps that a manager can use to respond(applying a policy)to a structured problem.to respond(applying a policy)to a structured problem.RuleRuleAn explicit statement that limits what a manager or An explicit statement that limits what a manager or employee can or cannot do.e

28、mployee can or cannot do.19Policy,Procedure,and Rule ExamplesPolicyPolicyAccept all customer-returned merchandise.Accept all customer-returned merchandise.ProcedureProcedureFollow all steps for completing merchandise return Follow all steps for completing merchandise return documentation.documentati

29、on.RulesRulesManagers must approve all refunds over$50.00.Managers must approve all refunds over$50.00.No credit purchases are refunded for cash.No credit purchases are refunded for cash.20Problems and Decisions(contd)Unstructured ProblemsUnstructured Problems（结构不良的问题）（结构不良的问题）Problems that are new

30、or unusual and for which Problems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete.information is ambiguous or incomplete.Problems that will require custom-made solutions.Problems that will require custom-made solutions.Nonprogrammed DecisionsNonprogrammed Decisions（非程序化决

31、策）（非程序化决策）Decisions that are unique and nonrecurring.Decisions that are unique and nonrecurring.Decisions that generate unique responses.Decisions that generate unique responses.21问题类型、决策类型和组织层次问题类型、决策类型和组织层次程序化决策非程序化决策组织层次顶层底层结构良好的结构不良的问题类型 Prentice Hall,20026-6-222222Exhibit 68Exhibit 68 Programme

32、d versus Nonprogrammed DecisionsProgrammed versus Nonprogrammed Decisions231、个体决策2、群体决策 相对于个人决策，群体决策有一些优点：(1)能更大范围地汇总信息；(2)能拟订更多的备选方案；(3)能得到更多的认同；(4)能更好地沟通；(5)能作出更好的决策等。但群体决策也有一些缺点，如花费较多的时间（群体决策的效率较低）、产生“从众现象”，以及责任不明等。适用范围适用范围 对于复杂、重要和需有关人员广泛接受的决策问题，组织最好要采取群体的方式来制定决策。按决策者分类按决策者分类 在实践中，群体决策往往转换为一系列个体

33、决策来求解。在实践中，群体决策往往转换为一系列个体决策来求解。24Decision-Making ConditionsCertaintyCertainty（确定性）（确定性）A situation in which a manager can make an accurate A situation in which a manager can make an accurate decision because the outcome of every alternative decision because the outcome of every alternative choice is

34、 known.choice is known.RiskRisk（风险性）（风险性）A situation in which the manager is able to estimate A situation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood(probability)of outcomes that result the likelihood(probability)of outcomes that result from the choice of particular alternatives.from the

35、 choice of particular alternatives.UncertaintyUncertainty（不确定性）（不确定性）25确定型、确定型、确定型、确定型、风险风险风险风险型、非确定型型、非确定型型、非确定型型、非确定型决策决策决策决策确定型决策确定型决策（Certainty）备选方案只存在一种自然状态的决策。备选方案只存在一种自然状态的决策。风险型决策风险型决策（Risk）备选方案存在两种或两种以上自然状态，备选方案存在两种或两种以上自然状态，每种自然状态发生的概率可以估计的决策每种自然状态发生的概率可以估计的决策。非确定型决策非确定型决策（Uncertainty）备选方案

36、存在两种或两种以上自然状态，备选方案存在两种或两种以上自然状态，每种自然状态发生的概率无法估计的决策每种自然状态发生的概率无法估计的决策。26确定性决策方法盈亏平衡分析确定性决策方法盈亏平衡分析 盈亏平衡点：盈亏平衡点：企业经营活动处于不盈也不亏状态的保本点。利润=总收入总成本其中：总收入=销售价格(P)*产销量(Q)总成本与产销量有关 总成本：总成本：包括固定成本固定成本固定成本固定成本（在一定期间内，当企业产销量变化时其总额保持不变的成本，如机器的折旧等）和变动成变动成变动成变动成本本本本（指随产销量的增加而同步增加的费用或成本。如直接人工费、原材料消耗等费用）27产销量固定成本 变动成本

37、总成本成本028例例题题的的图图解解 1045000产销量（千台）金额（万元）13销售收入总成本固定成本29总成本与单位产品成本 利润产销量*单价产销量*单位变动成本固定成本 QP QCVF Q(P CV)F 式中P CV为单位（产品）的贡献毛收益，即产品销售单价超过单位变动成本的部分 由QP QCVF 0推导可得（此时盈亏相平）：Q 盈亏平衡点产销量 30 分析分析 是否同意接受该外商的订贷，要看降低了售价后是否还能给企业带来利润。可能的错误是可能的错误是：内销产品单位贡献毛收益为100-60=40元，外销产品单位贡献毛收益为7550=25元，不合算。外销产品的利润为25*2-250=-20

38、0，更不合算。但是，实际上这家企业生产所投的固定成本已在内销产品中得到全额补偿并有盈余70万元，所以接受外商订货可使企业再净赚利润50万元。可见，要是这家企业没有其他更好的销售机会，应该作出接受外销订货、增加产销量的决策。例例假设某电子器件厂的主产品的生产能力为10万件，固定成本总额为250万元，单位变动成本为60元。已有国内订单共8万件，单价为100元。最近有一外商要求订货，但他出的单价仅为75元，订量2万件，并自己承担运输费用。由于这外销的2万件不需要企业支出推销费和运输费，这样可使单位变动成本降至50元。该厂是否接受外商的订货呢？31风险型决策方法风险型决策方法 决策树法决策树法例例某公

39、司为投产某种新产品拟定两个方案：一是建设规模较大的工厂，另一是建设规模比较小的工厂。假设两者的使用期一样，但建大厂需投资30万元，建小厂只需投资20万元。这种新产品未来的销路有好坏两种情况，它们出现的概率分别为0.7和0.3，相应的损益值预测结果是：若采纳建大厂方案，如果销路好，则生产经营这种新产品能带来100万元的收益，但如果遇到销路差的情况，则要损失20万元；若采纳建小厂的方案，如果销路好，经营收益能达到40万元，而如果销路差，则只有30万元的收益。试问哪一种方案更可取?32 用决策树的方法比较和评价不同方案的经济效果，需要进行以下几个步骤的工作：(1)根据决策备选方案的数目和对未来环境状

40、态的了解，绘出决策树图形。(2)计算各个方案的期望收益值。首先计算方案各状态枝的期望值期望值（用方案在各种自然状态下的损益值去分别乘以各自然状态出现的概率）然后将各状态枝的期望收益值累加，求出每个方案的期望收益值 。33决策决策决策决策树树树树 这这是一种以是一种以树树形形图图来来辅辅助助进进行各方案期望收行各方案期望收益的益的计计算和比算和比较较的决策方法。决策的决策方法。决策树树的基本形状的基本形状如下如下图图所示。所示。3412-30-206437销路好P1=0.7销路好P1=0.7销路差P2=0.3销路差P2=0.3100万元-20万元40万元30万元建大厂需投资30万元，建小厂只需投

41、资20万元新产品未来销路好坏出现的概率分别为0.7和0.3若建大厂，销路好，100万元的收益，销路差，损失20万元；若建小厂，销路好，40万元的收益，销路差，30万元的收益 35Exhibit 69Exhibit 69 Expected Value for Revenues from Expected Value for Revenues from the Addition of One Ski the Addition of One Ski LiftLift（RobbinsRobbins）ExpectedExpected Probability=Value of EachEventReven

42、uesAlternativeHeavy snowfall$850,0000.3=$255,000Normal snowfall 725,0000.5=362,500Light snowfall 350,0000.2=70,000$687,50036Decision-Making ConditionsUncertaintyUncertainty（不确定性决策方法）（不确定性决策方法）Limited information prevents estimation of outcome Limited information prevents estimation of outcome probab

43、ilities for alternatives associated with the probabilities for alternatives associated with the problem and may force managers to rely on intuition,problem and may force managers to rely on intuition,hunches,and“gut feelings”.hunches,and“gut feelings”.vvMaximaxMaximax（最大最大选择最大最大选择）:the optimistic ma

44、nagers the optimistic managers choice to maximize the maximum payoffchoice to maximize the maximum payoffvvMaximinMaximin（最大最小选择最大最小选择）:the pessimistic managers the pessimistic managers choice to maximize the minimum payoffchoice to maximize the minimum payoffvvMinimaxMinimax（最小化其最大遗憾最小化其最大遗憾）:the m

45、anagers choice to the managers choice to minimize maximum regret.minimize maximum regret.37Exhibit 610Exhibit 610 Payoff MatrixPayoff Matrix381515第第3 3方案方案2828第第4 4方案方案相相对对收益最大收益最大值值及及选选取的方案取的方案14142828282814141818A A4 415152424151521212424A A3 39 91818181815159 9A A2 211111414111114141313A A1 1悲悲观观

46、准准则则（Y Y）乐观乐观准准则则（X X）B B3 3B B2 2B B1 1 B B企企业业可能的反可能的反应应A A企企业业的策略的策略A企业在对手三种不同反击策略下的收益状态及方案选择39最大后悔最大后悔值值最小化准最小化准则则 考考虑虑到决策者在到决策者在选选定某一方案并付定某一方案并付诸实诸实施后，如果在施后，如果在未来未来实际实际遇到的自然状遇到的自然状态态并不与决策并不与决策时时的判断相吻合，的判断相吻合，这这就意味着当初如果就意味着当初如果选选取其他的方案反而会使企取其他的方案反而会使企业业得到得到更好的收益更好的收益。这种情况无形中表明，这次决策存在一种机会损失，它构成了决

47、策的“遗憾值”，或称“后悔值”。这里，“后悔”的意思是：你选择了一种方案，实际上就放弃了其他方案可能增加的收益。所以，决策者将为此而感到后悔。“最大后悔值”最小化决策准则就是一种力求使每一种方案选择的最大后悔值达到尽量小的决策方法。40最大后悔最大后悔值值最小化准最小化准则习题则习题分析分析 7 7A A4 4 最大后悔最大后悔值值中的最小中的最小值值及及选选取的决策方案取的决策方案282821212424相相对对收益最大收益最大值值7 70 07 76 6282814141818A A4 4131313130 00 0151521212424A A3 3151510106 615151818

48、15159 9A A2 2171717177 71111111114141313A A1 128-B28-B3 321-B21-B2 224-B24-B1 1最最大大后悔后悔值值B B3 3B B2 2B B1 1 B B企企业业的可能反的可能反应应A A企企业业的策略的策略41Decision-Making Styles（决策方式）（决策方式）Dimensions of Decision-Making StylesDimensions of Decision-Making StylesWays of thinkingWays of thinking（思维方式）理性的与直觉的不同（思维方式）理

49、性的与直觉的不同vvRational,orderly,and consistentRational,orderly,and consistentvvIntuitive,creative,and uniqueIntuitive,creative,and uniqueTolerance for ambiguityTolerance for ambiguity（模糊承受力）一致型和某（模糊承受力）一致型和某种顺序的需要与同时处理许多不同想法的不同种顺序的需要与同时处理许多不同想法的不同vvLow tolerance:require consistency and orderLow tolerance

50、:require consistency and ordervvHigh tolerance:multiple thoughts simultaneouslyHigh tolerance:multiple thoughts simultaneously42Decision-Making Styles(contd)Types of Decision MakersTypes of Decision MakersDirectiveDirective（命令型）快速、有效率的、有逻辑的（命令型）快速、有效率的、有逻辑的vvUse minimal information and consider few