RiskManagementPlanning(英文版)ntv.ppt

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1、PMP Preparation TrainingRisk ManagementChapter 11Source:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-2Risk ManagementRisk Management PlanningRisk IdentificationQualitative Risk AnalysisQuantification Risk AnalysisRisk Response PlanningRisk Monitoring&ControlProcesses required to effectively id

2、entify,analyze,and respond to project risksSource:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-3Risk Management11.2 RiskIdentificationPlanning11.5 RiskResponse Planning11.4RiskMonitoring&ControlControlling11.3 RiskQualitativeAnalysis11.1 RiskManagementPlanning11.4 RiskQuantitativeAnalysisSourc

3、e:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-4IntroductionRisk Events or consequences that have the probability of occurring during a project and that are measured by their impacts on the projectComponentsRisk eventRisk event probabilityRisk outcome or consequence(Amount at stake)Risk event

4、status(Probability x amount at stake)Source:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-5Project Risk ManagementProcesses for identifying,analyzing,and responding to project risk.It includes maximizing the probability and the results of positive events(opportunities)and minimizing the probabi

5、lity and consequences of adverse events(risks).Source:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-6Project Risk Life CycleRisk varies throughout the life cycleRisk is high in the concept anddevelopment phases,decreasing as work is accomplished Amount at stake is low in the early phases and in

6、creases as work is accomplished The area of overlap is known as the high-risk impact areaSource:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-7Risk Management PlanningSource:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-8Risk Management PlanningOutputs Risk Management PlanInputsProject Cha

7、rterRisk Management PoliciesDefined Roles&ResponsibilitiesStakeholder Risk ToleranceRisk Management Plan TemplateWBSTools&Techniques Planning Meetings Source:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-9InputsnProject CharternOrganizations risk management policies predefined approaches to ris

8、k analysis and responsenDefined roles,responsibilities,and authority levels for decision-makingnStakeholder risk tolerances expressed in policy statements or actionnTemplate for risk management plannWBSRisk Management PlanningSource:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-10Tools&Techniqu

9、esnPlanning meetings to develop the risk management plannAttendees include project manager,project team leaders,key stakeholders anyone responsible for planning and executing activitiesRisk Management PlanningSource:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-11OutputsnRisk Management PlannMe

10、thodology defines approaches,tools,and data sources that might be used to perform risk management on the projectnRoles&Responsibilities defines the lead,support,and risk management team membership for each type of action in the plannBudget-$nTiming Describes how often the risk management process wil

11、l be performed throughout the project life cycle.nScoring and interpretation methods used for performing qualitative and quantitative risk analysisnThresholds the target against which the project team measures the effectiveness of the the risk response plan executionnReporting formats-defines how th

12、e results of the risk management processes will be documented,analyzed,and communicated to the project team and stakeholdersnTracking Documents all facets of risk activities and how the risk process will be audited Risk Management PlanningSource:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-12R

13、isk IdentificationInternal risks Things that the project team can control or influenceExternal risks Things beyond the control or influence of the project teamRisk identification is concerned with opportunities(positive outcomes),as well as with threats(negative outcomes)Determining which risks are

14、likely to affect the project and documenting the characteristics of eachSource:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-13Risk IdentificationTypes Business(profit or loss)and insurable(loss)Known known Total certaintyKnown unknown Degree of uncertaintyUnknown unknown Total uncertaintyCateg

15、ories External,unpredictable Regulatory,etc.External,predictable Market risksInternal,non-technical ManagementTechnical DesignLegal ContractualSource:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-14Risk IdentificationOutputs RisksTriggersInputs to other processInputsRisk Management PlanProject

16、Planning OutputsRisk CategoriesHistorical informationTools&Techniques Documentation ReviewsInformation Gathering TechniquesChecklistsAssumptions AnalysisDiagramming Techniques Source:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-15InputsnRisk Management PlannProject Planning OutputsnProject cha

17、rternWBSnProduct descriptionnSchedule&cost estimatesnResource plannProcurement PlannAssumptions and constraint listsRisk IdentificationSource:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-16Inputsn Risk Categories(See Note Pages)nTechnical,quality,or performance risks nProject Management risksn

18、Organization risksnExternal risksnHistorical InformationnProject filesnPublished informationRisk IdentificationSource:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-17Inputs(cont.)nHistorical information Available from the Following sourcesnProject files Records of previous projectsCommercial da

19、tabases Historical information available commerciallyProject team knowledgeRisk IdentificationSource:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-18Tools&TechniquesDocumentation ReviewsInformation-gathering techniquesBrainstormingDelphi techniqueInterviewing Strengths,Weaknesses,Opportunities,

20、Threats(SWOT)analysisChecklists Organized by source of riskRisk IdentificationSource:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-19Tools&TechniquesnAssumptions Analysis technique that examines the validity of assumptions to identify risks to project because of invalid assumptionsnDiagramming

21、techniques nCause and effect diagrams used to identify causes of risksnSystem or process flow charts that show how various elements of a system interrelate and the causes of risksnInfluence diagrams the graphically represent a problem showing causal influences,time ordering events and other relation

22、ships among variables and outputsRisk IdentificationSource:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-20SWOTStrengthsWeaknessesOpportunitiesThreatsInternalExternalBuild OnEliminate or ReduceMitigateExploitRisk IdentificationSource:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-21OutputsP

23、otential Risk Event Identify discrete occurrences that might affect the projectTriggers Risk symptoms or warning signs that indicate a risk even has occurred or is about to occurInputs to other processes may identify a need for further activity in another areaRisks are often input to other processes

24、 as constraints or assumptionsRisk IdentificationSource:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-22Qualitative Risk AnalysisQualitative risk analysis requires that the probability and consequences of the risks be evaluated using established qualitative-analysis method and toolsSource:PMBOK

25、 Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-23Qualitative Risk AnalysisOutputs Overall risk rankingList of prioritized tasksList of risks for additionalManagement&AnalysisTrends in resultsInputsRisk Management PlanIdentified risksProject statusProject typeData PrecisionScales of probability&impact

26、AssumptionsTools&Techniques Risk probability&impactRisk rating matrixProject assumptions testingData precision rankingSource:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-24InputsnRisk management plannIdentified Risks evaluation of risks identified during the risk identification process and the

27、ir potential impacts on the projectnProject Status identification of risks as the project progresses through its life cyclenProject Type determines the amount of risknCommon or recurrent type have less risknState-of-the-art,first time technology,or highly complex projects have more riskQualitative R

28、isk AnalysisSource:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-25Inputs(cont.)nData Precision measures the extent of data available,as well as the reliability of the data and source of the datanScales of Probability and Impact assess the two key dimensions of risk(probability of occurring and

29、 impact on project)nAssumptionsQualitative Risk AnalysisSource:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-26Tools&TechniquesnRisk Probability and ImpactnRisk probability-is the likelihood that a risk will occurnRisk consequences is the effect on project objectives if the risk event occursnPr

30、obability/Impact Risk Rating Matrix nRisk Probability Scale falls between 0.0(no probability)and 1.0 certainty)nOrdinal scale ranked-order scale,such as very low,low,moderate,high,and very highnCardinal scale assign values to these impacts.These values are usually linear(.1/.3/.t/.7/.9)or nonlinear(

31、.05/.1/.2/.4/.8/)(See note pages)Qualitative Risk AnalysisSource:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-27Tools&TechniquesnProject Assumption Testing Assumptions are tested against two criteria:assumption stability and the consequences on the project if the assumption is falsenData Preci

32、sion Ranking is a technique to evaluate the degree to which the data is usefulnExtent of understanding of the risknData available about the risknQuality of the datanReliability and integrity of the dataQualitative Risk AnalysisSource:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-28OutputsnOvera

33、ll Risk Ranking indicates the overall risk position of a project relative to other projects by comparing risk scoresnList of Prioritized Risks Grouped by:nRank(high,moderate,low)nThose requiring immediate response and those that can be handled at a later datenThose that affect cost,schedule,function

34、ality,and quality.nSignificant risks should have a description of the basis for the assessed probability and impactQualitative Risk AnalysisSource:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-29Outputs(cont.)nList of Risks for Additional Analysis and Management moderate and high risks are cand

35、idates for more analysis,including quantitative and risk analysis,and risk management actionnTrends in Qualitative Risk Analysis Results As the analysis is repeated,a trend of results may become apparent,and can make risk response more or less urgent and importantQualitative Risk AnalysisSource:PMBO

36、K Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-30Quantitative Risk AnalysisDetermine probability of achieving a specific project objectiveQuantify the risk exposure for the project,and determine the size of cost and schedule contingency reserves that may be neededIdentify risks requiring the most at

37、tention by quantifying their relative contribution to project riskIdentify achievable and realistic cost,schedule,or scope targetsMeasuring numerically the probability and consequences of risks and estimating their implication for project objectivesSource:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,

38、Inc.11-31Quantitative Risk AnalysisOutputs Prioritized List of Quantified RisksProbability Analysis of the projectProbability of achieving the costand time objectivesTrends in Quantitative Risk AnalysisResultsInputsRisk Management PlanList of prioritized risks List of risks for additionalManagement&

39、AnalysisHistorical InformationExpert JudgmentOther Planning OutputsTools&Techniques InterviewingSensitivity AnalysisDecision Tree AnalysisSimulationSource:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-32InputsRisk Management PlanIdentified RisksList of Prioritized RisksList of Risks for Additio

40、nal Analysis and ManagementHistorical Information on prior,similar completed projects,studies of similar projects by risk specialists,and risk databases availableExpert Judgment inputs from the project team,other subject matter experts within the organization,and outside sourcesOther Planning Output

41、s schedule logic and duration estimates,WBS list of all cost elements,and models of project technical objectivesQuantitative Risk AnalysisSource:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-33Tools&TechniquesnInterviewing project stakeholders and subject-matter experts to quantify the probabil

42、ity and consequences of risks on project objectivesnThe information needed depends upon the type of probability distributions that will be usedQuantitative Risk AnalysisSource:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-34Probability Likelihood of occurrence.(Number of occurrences of an event

43、 divided by the total number of all possible occurrences)Statistics Mean Average of the values of eventsMode Value which occurs most oftenMedian Value in middle of the range of ordered valuesVariance Average of the squared deviations from the meanStandard deviation Square Root of the VarianceRange V

44、alues between upper&lower limitsTools&Techniques(cont.)Quantitative Risk AnalysisSource:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-35n2 standard deviations(+/-1)=68.26%n4 standard deviations(+/-2)=95.46%n6 standard deviations(+/-3)=99.73%0-1-2-3+1+2+3Normal Distribution CurveQuantitative Ris

45、k AnalysisSource:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-36Three values with probabilities;used to calculate expected values Optimistic Most likely PessimisticTools&Techniques(cont.)e.g.Optimistic0.2 x$100 K=$20 KMost Likely 0.6 x$130 K=$78 K Pessimistic0.2 x$180 K=$36 KExpected Value =$1

46、34 KQuantitative Risk AnalysisSource:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-37Tools&Techniques(cont.)Project AProject B0.50.50.60.40.7 0.3SuccessFailureSuccessFailureWhat is the probability that Project B willbe selected and will be successful?ExampleAnswer:0.35Quantitative Risk Analysis

47、Source:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-38Tools&Techniques(cont.)Probability distribution(Method of moments)Calculates project range estimatesExpected monetary value Probability times costThree values low(a),most likely(m),and high(b)with probabilities for each;used to calculate ex

48、pected valueQuantitative Risk AnalysisSource:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-39Tools&Techniques(cont.)Beta Distribution0.00.00.10.10.10.10.00.0Triangular DistributionMean=(a+m+b)/3Variance=(b-a)2+(m-a)(m-b)/18Using PERT approximations Mean=(a+4m+b)/6 Variance=(b-a)/62Quantitative

49、Risk AnalysisSource:PMBOK Guide 2000 Version 2002 Robbins-Gioia,Inc.11-40Tools&TechniquesnSensitivity Analysis determines which risks have the most potential impact on the projectnDecision Tree Analysis use of a diagram that describes a decision under consideration and the implications of choosing o

50、ne or another of the available alternativesnIncorporates probabilities of risks and the costs or rewards of each logical path of events and future decisionsnSolving the decision tree indicates which decision yields the greatest expected value when all the uncertain implications,costs,rewards,and sub