[精选]肉牛生产的经济学(中英文)24357.pptx

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1、Economics of Beef Production肉牛生产的经济学Ted DarlingTed Darling泰泰德达林德达林Alberta Agriculture,Food&Rural DevelopmentAlberta Agriculture,Food&Rural DevelopmentAirdrie,Alberta,CanadaAirdrie,Alberta,Canada加拿大加拿大阿尔伯特省阿尔伯特农业食品和农村发展阿尔伯特省阿尔伯特农业食品和农村发展CIDA China Beef Project,January 2003 23456789101112Todays Agenda

2、今天的课程n nIntroduction and BackgroundIntroduction and Background 介绍和背景介绍和背景n nEconomics Concepts,Theories and ToolsEconomics Concepts,Theories and Tools 经济学概念、理论和工具经济学概念、理论和工具n nFeedlot EconomicsFeedlot Economics 育肥场经济学育肥场经济学n nCow calf economicsCow calf economics 母牛母牛犊牛经济学犊牛经济学n nWrap up,discussion a

3、nd conclusionsWrap up,discussion and conclusions 总结、讨论和结论总结、讨论和结论13What is Economics?什么是经济学？n nEconomics is about“making money”Economics is about“making money”经济学是经济学是“制造钱制造钱”n nEconomics is about earning a return on investment Economics is about earning a return on investment 经济学经济学是使投资有回报是使投资有回报n

4、nEconomics is managing scarce resources in order Economics is managing scarce resources in order to earn a profitto earn a profit 经济学经济学是管理有限的资源使之获得利润是管理有限的资源使之获得利润n nEconomics is different than financeEconomics is different than finance 经济学不同于财务经济学不同于财务14What is Economics?什么是经济学？n nEconomics requir

5、es measurement and management 经济学需要测量和管理n n“What gets measured gets managed.”“什么是测量，什么是管理。”15Profit Centre Model利润中心模式Cow-Calf母牛-犊牛Feedlot育肥场Processing加工Retail/WholesaleMarket零售/批发市场Inputs投入Inputs投入Inputs投入Inputs投入OutputOutputOutputMeasure&manage测量和管理Measure&manage测量和管理Measure&manage测量和管理Consumer消费者

6、16Standard Format for Cost of Production生产成本的标准格式Revenue (Value of Production)(Value of Production)收入（生产价值）（生产价值）-Variable Costs*可变成本*=Contribution Margin*边际收益*-Fixed Costs (Capital Costs)(Capital Costs)固定成本（基本投资）（基本投资）=Profit (Return to Equity)(Return to Equity)利润（归还自有资本）（归还自有资本）Back18Financial&Pro

7、duction Records 财务和生产记录n nFinancial Records Financial Records 财务财务记录记录uuRevenues(sales)Revenues(sales)收入收入（出售）（出售）uuVariable costs Variable costs 可可变成本变成本uuFixed costs Fixed costs 固定固定成本成本n nProduction Records Production Records 生产生产记录记录uuBirths,deaths,weights Births,deaths,weights 出生出生、死亡、重量、死亡、重量n

8、 nNecessary for all businesses,big and smallNecessary for all businesses,big and smalln n 所用经营需要的，大和小所用经营需要的，大和小21Fixed&Variable Costs and Contribution Margin固定和可变成本、边际收益n nUnderstanding these concepts is the key to increasing Understanding these concepts is the key to increasing profitabilityprofit

9、abilityn n学会学会这些概念是增加盈利能力的关键这些概念是增加盈利能力的关键uuMaximize contribution margin by increasing revenue Maximize contribution margin by increasing revenue and decreasing variable costsand decreasing variable costsuu通过增加收入和降低可变成本获得最大的边际收益通过增加收入和降低可变成本获得最大的边际收益uuMaximize profits by spreading fixed costs over m

10、ore Maximize profits by spreading fixed costs over more units of productionunits of productionuu通过将固定成本分散在更多的生产单位中获得最大通过将固定成本分散在更多的生产单位中获得最大的利润的利润23Fixed and Variable Costs固定和可变成本24Partial Budget部分预算33Partial Budget(example only)部分预算（例子）34Other Economic Concepts and Tools(continued)其它经济学概念和工具（继续）n n

11、Commodities versus diversified productsCommodities versus diversified productsn n商品商品对多样产品对多样产品uuCommodity production-Commodity production-minimize the“per unit”cost minimize the“per unit”cost of productionof production商品商品生产生产-生产的最小的生产的最小的“单位成本单位成本”uuDifferentiated products-Differentiated products-

12、maximize your products maximize your products value value as perceived by your customer.as perceived by your customer.uu不同不同产品产品-你的顾客理解的最大产品值你的顾客理解的最大产品值n nEnterprise analysisEnterprise analysis企业企业分析分析uuCalculate contribution margin(revenue variable costs)Calculate contribution margin(revenue varia

13、ble costs)for each enterprise or profit centrefor each enterprise or profit centreuu为为每个企业或利润中心计算边际收益（收入每个企业或利润中心计算边际收益（收入-可变成可变成本）本）36Beef Feedlot Economics肉牛育肥场经济学Terminology&Definitions术语和定义n nStandard format for analysis,plus other terms:Standard format for analysis,plus other terms:n n分析的标准格式，加

14、其它术语：分析的标准格式，加其它术语：t tCost per kg of gainCost per kg of gain cost of 1 kg of weight gain.Includes all cost of 1 kg of weight gain.Includes all costs,fixed and variablecosts,fixed and variablet t每每公斤增重成本公斤增重成本-增重增重1 1公斤。包括所有费用、固定和可变公斤。包括所有费用、固定和可变t tYardageYardage total costs minus feed costs total c

15、osts minus feed costst t畜畜栏使用费栏使用费总费用减去饲料费总费用减去饲料费t tBreakevenBreakeven sale or purchase price where profit is zero sale or purchase price where profit is zero t t收支收支平衡平衡-出售和购买价格利润是零出售和购买价格利润是零t tTurnoverTurnover how many complete turns the feedlot achieves each how many complete turns the feedlot

16、achieves each year.Also total cattle sales/average inventory valueyear.Also total cattle sales/average inventory valuet t周转周转-每年育肥场完全的运转是多少。全部出售的牛每年育肥场完全的运转是多少。全部出售的牛/平均存平均存货价值。货价值。38Measuring Profitability测量盈利能力Revenue (Value of Production)(Value of Production)收入（生产价值）（生产价值）-Variable Costs*可变成本*=Co

17、ntribution Margin*边际收益*-Fixed Costs (Capital Costs(Capital Costs)固定固定成本成本（基本投资）（基本投资）=Profit (Return to Equity)(Return to Equity)利润(归还自有资本）归还自有资本）39Economics of Nutrition营养经济学Low-gainRation低增重日料(Same cattle at 454 kg)40Economics of Nutrition营养经济学High-gainRation高增重日料(Same cattle at 454 kg)41Economics

18、 of Nutrition营养经济学42Economics of Nutrition营养经济学Days on Feed饲养天数Low gain ration低增重日料High gain ration高增重日料450 kg final wt.最后重量450公斤450 kg final wt.最后重量459公斤4.90/day4.9元/天504 days504天249 days天6.81/day6.81元/天Total Feed Cost=4.90 x 504=2,470总饲料费用Total Feed Cost=6.81 x 249=1,698总饲料费用=6.81元X249=1，698元43Eco

19、nomics of Nutrition Discussion&Conclusions营养经济学-讨论和结论n nWhy is the“high gain”ration more profitable than the“low gain Why is the“high gain”ration more profitable than the“low gain ration?”ration?”n n为什么为什么“高增重高增重”日料比日料比“低增重日料低增重日料“更能盈利更能盈利uuDaily feed cost of keeping the animal alive(maintenance)Dai

20、ly feed cost of keeping the animal alive(maintenance)with no gainwith no gainuu不不增重只让牛活着（维持）的每天饲料费用增重只让牛活着（维持）的每天饲料费用uuYardage costs(all costs except feed)must be paid each dayYardage costs(all costs except feed)must be paid each dayuu每天每天必须支付畜栏使用费（除了饲料的所有费用）必须支付畜栏使用费（除了饲料的所有费用）n nA feedlot is like

21、a factory the production line should move as A feedlot is like a factory the production line should move as fast as possible to spread fixed cost over many units of production.fast as possible to spread fixed cost over many units of production.n n育肥场育肥场象工厂象工厂生产线应尽快将固定成本分散到更多的生产生产线应尽快将固定成本分散到更多的生产单位中

22、单位中44Maximizing Profits最大利润ABCDELost Profit利润损失(if producing below MR=MC)如果购买低于45Breakeven Calculator(Excel Spreadsheet)收支平衡计算表（EXCEL表）Forecasts:预测 days on feed吃饲料的天数 profit利润-or 或 breakeven 收支平衡purchase or sale price where profit=zero购买或出售价格利润=零46Cow-Calf Economics母牛-犊牛经济学Standard Format for Analys

23、is标准分析格式Revenue (Value of Production)(Value of Production)收入收入（生产价值）（生产价值）（生产价值）（生产价值）-Variable Costs*可变成本*=Contribution Margin*边际收益*-Fixed Costs (Capital Costs)(Capital Costs)固定固定成本成本（基本投资）（基本投资）=Profit (Return to Equity)(Return to Equity)利润（归还自有资本）归还自有资本）5051Cost per Unit of ProductionUnit Cost of

24、 Production(UCOP)每生产单位成本生产单位成本（UCOP）qqUCOP=UCOP=Total cost of productionTotal cost of production Total number of units produced Total number of units produced UCOP=UCOP=总生产成本总生产成本 生产的单位总数生产的单位总数qq225 225 kg of calf produced at a total cost of kg of calf produced at a total cost of 1,0001,000.The UCO

25、P is 1,000/225=The UCOP is 1,000/225=4.44 per kg calf 4.44 per kg calf produced.If price is 4.44 or more,profit is earned.produced.If price is 4.44 or more,profit is earned.qq生产生产225225公斤犊牛的总成本是公斤犊牛的总成本是10001000元。元。UCOPUCOP是是1000/225=4.441000/225=4.44元元/公斤。如果价格是公斤。如果价格是4.444.44元或元或更多，能获得利润。更多，能获得利润。

26、qqExamples:Examples:例如例如：qqReduce cost of buildings=total cost=UCOPReduce cost of buildings=total cost=UCOPqq降降低房屋建设成本低房屋建设成本=总成本总成本=UCOP=UCOPqqIncreased calving%=production=UCOPIncreased calving%=production=UCOPqq增加增加产犊产犊%=%=生产生产=UCOP=UCOP52Strategies to Maximize Profit in the Cow-Calf Industry母牛-犊

27、牛业最大利润战略n nTwo key strategies Two key strategies 两个两个重要战略重要战略uuBecome a low-cost producerBecome a low-cost produceruu成为成为低成本生产者低成本生产者uuProduce a diversified(niche)productProduce a diversified(niche)productuu生产多样（小生境）产品生产多样（小生境）产品n n Low cost producerLow cost producer低成本生产者低成本生产者uuLower fixed costs,o

28、r become more efficient by Lower fixed costs,or become more efficient by spreading fixed costs over more units of productionspreading fixed costs over more units of production较较低的固定成本，或通过将固定成本分散给更多低的固定成本，或通过将固定成本分散给更多的生产单位变的更有效的生产单位变的更有效53Low Cost Herds Make Money!低成本畜群挣钱！n nTop third-bottom third a

29、nalysis Top third-bottom third analysis(based on total production cost per lb of calf(based on total production cost per lb of calf produced)produced)n n分析前分析前3 3名和后名和后3 3名名（以犊牛每生产（以犊牛每生产1 1磅的总生产成本为基础）磅的总生产成本为基础）n n$300$300 per head between low-cost and high-cost herds-per head between low-cost and

30、high-cost herds-(1999 Alberta(1999 Alberta average data)average data)n n在在低成本和高成本畜群之间每头为低成本和高成本畜群之间每头为300300加元（加元（19991999年阿尔伯特平年阿尔伯特平均数据）均数据）n n$100$100 per head difference between low-cost and high-cost herds per head difference between low-cost and high-cost herds(20(20 year data from the US.)yea

31、r data from the US.)n n低成本和高成本畜群之间的不同为每头低成本和高成本畜群之间的不同为每头100100加元（美国加元（美国20002000年数年数据）据）n nThe cattle cycle had little effect on the amount of the differenceThe cattle cycle had little effect on the amount of the difference n n牛牛周期对数量不同无影响。周期对数量不同无影响。54Return to Equity 1995-1999Alberta Average归还自有资

32、本阿尔伯特1995-1999年平均55Is it Growth-Weaning weight?生长-断奶重？Wean Wean WeightWeight断奶断奶重重Actual Actual ValueValue实际实际值值Total Cost Total Cost per Lb per Lb WeanedWeaned每每断奶磅总断奶磅总成本成本Gross Gross Margin/Margin/Lb Lb WeanedWeaned毛收益毛收益/断奶断奶磅磅Return to Return to Equity/Equity/CowCow归还归还自有资自有资本本/母牛母牛Profit/Lb Pr

33、ofit/Lb WeanedWeaned利润利润/断奶磅断奶磅前前1/31/3名名Top 1/3Top 1/36286281.021.02.44.44144.71144.71.24.24后后1/31/3名名Bottom Bottom 1/31/34884881.211.21.37.3763.2463.24.14.14Study by Jeff Millang,Alberta Agriculture 1999 Data$.10/lb difference不同$.10/磅56Is it Feeding cost Winter Feed&Bedding?饲养成本-冬季饲料和垫草？Winter Win

34、ter Feed&Feed&BeddingBedding冬季冬季饲料饲料和垫草和垫草Actual Actual ValueValue实际实际值值Total Cost Total Cost per Lb per Lb WeanedWeaned每每断奶磅断奶磅总成本总成本Gross Gross Margin/Margin/Lb Lb WeanedWeaned毛毛收益收益/断奶磅断奶磅Return to Return to Equity/Equity/CowCow归还归还自有自有资本资本/母母牛牛Return to Return to Equity/Equity/Lb Lb WeanedWeaned

35、归还归还自有自有资本资本/断断奶磅奶磅前前1/31/3名名Top 1/3Top 1/3130.85130.851.001.00.52.52159.43159.43.31.31后后1/31/3名名Bottom Bottom 1/31/3312.49312.491.241.24.39.3996.5996.59.17.17Study by Jeff Millang,Alberta Agriculture 1999 Data阿尔伯特农业杰夫米朗研究1999年数据$.14/lb difference不同$.14/磅57Is it Fixed Cost?固定成本？Fixed costFixed cost固

36、定固定成本成本Actual Actual ValueValue实际实际值值Total Cost Total Cost per Lb per Lb WeanedWeaned每每断奶磅断奶磅总成本总成本Gross Gross Margin/Margin/Lb Lb WeanedWeaned毛毛收益收益/断奶磅断奶磅Return to Return to Equity/Equity/CowCow归还归还自有自有资本资本/母母牛牛Return to Return to Equity/Equity/Lb Lb WeanedWeaned归还归还自有自有资本资本/断断奶磅奶磅前前1/31/3名名Top 1/

37、3Top 1/337.5837.581.051.05.49.49169.76169.76.32.32后后1/31/3名名Bottom Bottom 1/31/3132.31132.311.301.30.25.25-18.69-18.69-.04-.04Study by Jeff Millang,Alberta Agriculture 1999 Data阿尔伯特农业杰夫米朗研究1999年数据$.36/lb difference58Analyzing Cow-Calf Operations&Finding Unit Cost of Production分析母牛-犊牛经营和判定单位生产成本uu“Wh

38、at gets measured gets managed”What gets measured gets managed”t tFinancial and production recordsFinancial and production records“测量和管理什么测量和管理什么”财务和生产记录财务和生产记录uuCow-calf cost of production analysis.xlsCow-calf cost of production analysis.xlst tExcel spreadsheet(contains example data Excel spreadshee

39、t(contains example data only)only)母牛母牛-犊牛生产成本分析犊牛生产成本分析EXCEL EXCEL 表（包括例题数据）表（包括例题数据）59Financial Records财务记录n nPaper spreadsheet.60Production Records生产记录n nPaper spreadsheet.6164Format and Benchmarks格式和水准标点Revenue收入-Variable Costs可变成本=Contribution Margin*=边际收益-Fixed Costs固定成本=Profit利润(Gross Margin)（

40、毛收益）65Contracts&Contracting合同和签约66Key Issues in Contracting签约的主要问题n nThe purpose The purpose 目的目的uuGuaranteed market for sellerGuaranteed market for selleruu保证保证卖者市场卖者市场uuGuaranteed supply for buyerGuaranteed supply for buyeruu保证保证供应买者供应买者uuStable priceStable price价格价格稳定稳定uuAccess to financing and t

41、echnology for Access to financing and technology for producerproduceruu为为生产者评估财务和技术生产者评估财务和技术67Key Issues in Contracting签约的主要问题n nThe economic implications The economic implications 经济经济学含义学含义uuProducers must know cost of productionProducers must know cost of productionuu生产者生产者必须知道生产成本必须知道生产成本uuProd

42、ucers must get a fair return for their Producers must get a fair return for their productsproductsuu生产者生产者必须从产品中得到回报必须从产品中得到回报uuProducers must understand restriction on Producers must understand restriction on inputs and production practicesinputs and production practicesuu生产生产者必须知道投入和生产实际的限制者必须知道投入

43、和生产实际的限制68Key Issues in Contracting签约的主要问题n nFinancial considerationsFinancial considerations财财务考虑务考虑uuProducer must understand details of Producer must understand details of financing providedfinancing provideduu生产者生产者必须知道财务的详细情况必须知道财务的详细情况t tLoans Loans 贷款贷款t tFeed,vet,breeding feesFeed,vet,breedi

44、ng feest t饲料饲料、兽医、配种费、兽医、配种费uuWhat happens if things go wrong?What happens if things go wrong?uu如果如果出错发生了什么？出错发生了什么？69Key Issues in Contracting签约的主要问题n nThe benefits and risksThe benefits and risks收收益和风险益和风险uuThe contract must be“win win.”(advantage for The contract must be“win win.”(advantage for b

45、oth parties)both parties)uu合同合同必须必须“赢赢赢赢”（双方都有好处）（双方都有好处）uuRisk of being tied to one market.(can inputs prices Risk of being tied to one market.(can inputs prices go up without the sale price being adjusted?)go up without the sale price being adjusted?)uu风险风险束缚一个市场。（投入价格上升销售价格能束缚一个市场。（投入价格上升销售价格能调整吗

46、？）调整吗？）uuRisk of loss of independenceRisk of loss of independenceuu独立独立风险损失风险损失70Key Issues in Contracting签约的主要问题n nThe impact on other business relationships对其他经营关系的影响uuRelationships with other customers and suppliers may be affecteduu其他消费者和供应者的关系可能受影响71Discussion&Conclusions讨论和结论72The End结束Ted DarlingTed Darling泰泰德达林德达林Risk Management SpecialistRisk Management Specialist风险风险管理专家管理专家Alberta Agriculture,Food&Rural DevelopmentAlberta Agriculture,Food&Rural DevelopmentAlberta,CanadaAlberta,Canada加拿大加拿大阿尔伯特省阿尔伯特农业食品和农村发展局阿尔伯特省阿尔伯特农业食品和农村发展局演讲完毕，谢谢观看！