作为决策者的管理者byqo.pptx

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1、Chapter7MANAGERS AS DECISION MAKERS第7章 作为决策者的管理者工商管理专业 15011503017 王瑞平LEARNING OUTCOMES 7.1 Describe the eight steps in the decision-making process描述决策制定过程中的八个步骤7.2 Explain the four ways managers make decisions解释管理者制定决策的四种方法7.3 Classify decisions and decision-making condition划分决策和决策条件的类型7.4 Describe

2、 different decision-making styles and discuss how biases affect decision making描述不同的决策风格并讨论各种偏见如何影响决策7.5 Identify effective decision-making techniques识别有效的决策技巧7.1 The Decision-Making Process7.1 决策制定过程7.1 The Decision-Making ProcessDecision making is the essence of management.制定决策是管理的本质。And all manag

3、ers would like to make good decisions because theyre judged on the outcomes of those decisions.所有的管理者都希望制定良好的决策，因为组织和外界是根据这些决策的结果来判断和评价他们的。you can see that decisions play an important role in what an organization has to do or is able to do.你可以看到，决策对一个组织必须要做或能够做的事情发挥着重要作用。Managers at all levels and i

4、n all areas of organizations make decisions.That is,they make choices.管理者，无论在组织中的哪个级别和哪个领域，都会制定决策。也就是说，他们会作出选择。Making decisions isnt something that just managers do;all organizational members make decisions that affect their jobs and the organization they work for.制定决策并不仅仅是管理者的事情；组织中的所有成员都会作出决策，而这些决

5、策会影响到他们的工作和所在的组织。1.识别决策问题 2.确定决策标准 3.为决策标准分配权重 4.开发备择方案5.分析备择方案 6.选择被择方案 7.实施被择方案 8.评估决策的效果7.1.1 Step 1:Identifying a Problem7.1.1 步骤1：确定一个问题Your team is dysfunctional,your customers are leaving,or your plans are no longer relevant.你的团队变得功能紊乱，你的客户正在离你而去，或者你的计划再也无法有效实施。Every decision starts with a pr

6、oblem,a discrepancy between an existing and a desired condition.每一项决策都始于一个问题，即现有状况和预期状况之间的不一致。Managers also have to be cautious not to confuse problems with symptoms of the problem.管理者必须采取小心谨慎的态度，以免把问题与问题的症状相混淆。Is a 5 percent drop in sales a problem?销售额下降5个百分点是一个问题吗？Or are declining sales merely a s

7、ymptom of the real problem,such as poor-quality products,high prices,or bad advertising?或者说，不断下降的销售额是否只是某个问题（例如低劣的产品质量、高昂的价格或者糟糕的广告）的一种症状？Also,keep in mind that problem identification is subjective.此外，需要记住的是，问题的确认是主观的。What one manager considers a problem might not be considered a problem by another

8、manager.某位管理者认为这是一个问题，而另一位管理者则可能认为这不是问题。In addition,a manager who resolves the wrong problem perfectly is likely to perform just as poorly as the manager who doesnt even recognize a problem and does nothing.此外，如果二位管理者完美地解决了一个错误的问题，其效果可能完全等同于这位管理者没有发现问题并因此什么也没做。As you can see,effectively identifying

9、problems is important,but not easy.你会发现，有效地确定问题非常重要，但并不容易。7.1.2 Step 287.1.2 步骤28Step 2:Identifying Decision Criteria：步骤2：确定决策标准Every decision maker has criteria guiding his or her decisions even if theyre not explicitly stated.每位决策者都有一些标准来指导自己的决策，即便这些标准并没有明确阐述。Step 3:Allocating Weights to the Crite

10、ria：步骤3：为各项标准分配权重.A simple way is to give the most important criterion a weight of 10 and then assign weights to the rest using that standard一种简单的方法是给予最重要的标准10分的权重，然后参照这个权重分数来为其他标准打分。Step 4:Developing Alternatives：步骤4：形成各种备选方案The fourth step in the decision-making process requires the decision maker

11、 to list viable alternatives that could resolve the problem.In this step,a decision maker need to be creative.决策制定过程的第4个步骤要求决策者列举出切实可行的被择方案。在这个步骤中决策者需要发挥想象力。Step 5:Analyzing Alternatives：步骤5：分析这些备选方案Once alternatives have been identified,a decision maker must evaluate each one.How?By using the crite

12、ria established in Step 2.一旦确定了所有的被择方案，决策者就必须对每一个被择方案进行评估。如何评估？通过使用在步骤2中确定的那些标准。Step 6:Selecting an Alternative 步骤6：选择一个方案The fourth step in the decision-making process is choosing the best alternative or the one that generated the highest total in step 5.决策制定的第6个步骤是选择最佳的被择方案，或者是选择在第5个步骤中获得最高分的那个被择方

13、案。Step 7:Implementing the Alternative 步骤7：实施该方案In step 7 in the decision-making process,you put the deciaion into action by conveying it to those affected and getting their commitment to it.在决策制定的第7个步骤，你将这项方案传达给那些受影响的人并获得他们的认同，从而将该项措施付诸实践。Step 8:Evaluating Decision Effectiveness 步骤8：评估决策的效果 The last

14、 step in decision-making process involves evaluating the outcome or result of the decision to see whether the problem was resolved。If the evaluation shows that the prooblem still exists,then the manager needs to assess what went wrong.Was the problem incorrectly defined?Were errors made when evaluat

15、ing alternatives?Was the right alternative selected but poorly implemented?The answers might lead you to redo an earlier step or might even require starting the whole process over.决策制定过程的最后一个步骤是评估该项决策的后果或者结果以检查问题是否得到解决。如果评估表明该问题依然存在，那么管理者需要判断哪里出错了。问题是不是没有被正确定义？在对各被择方案评估时是否出现了错误？选择的正确方案是否有效实施？这些方案可能会

16、指引你重新实施某个先前的步骤，或者需要重新开始整个过程。7.2 Managers Making Decisions7.2 管理者制定决策 Decisions Managers May Make7.2.1 Making Decisions:Rationality7.2.1 制定决策：理性When Hewlett-Packard(HP)acquired Compaq,the company did no research on how customers viewed Compaq products until“months after then-CEO Carly Fiorina publicl

17、y announced the deal and privately warned her top management team that she didnt want to hear any dissent pertaining to the acquisition.”当惠普收购康柏时，惠普公司并没有调查顾客如何看待康柏产品，直到“惠普公司时任首席执行官卡莉菲奥里纳（Carly Fiorina)公开宣布这项交易并且私下警告她的高管团队她不想听到任何关于这项兼并的异议”数月之后，该公司才启动这项调查。By the time they discovered that customers per

18、ceived Compaq products as inferiorjust the opposite of what customers felt about HP productsit was too late.等到他们发现消费者认为康柏产品存在缺陷时这正好与消费者对惠普产品的看法相反为时已晚。HPs performance suffered and Fiorina lost her job.惠普公司的绩效受到严重影响，而菲奥里纳也丢掉了自己的工作。ASSUMPTIONS OF RATIONALITY 理性假设 We assume that managers will use ration

19、al decision making;that is,theyll make logical and consistent choices to maximize value.我们假设管理者会理性决策；也就是说，他们会作出符合逻辑的、前后一致的选择以实现价值最大化。A rational decision maker would be fully objective and logical.一位理性的决策者会是完全客观的、符合逻辑的。The problem faced would be clear and unambiguous,and the decision maker would have

20、 a clear and specific goal and know all possible alternatives and consequences.所面临的问题是清晰明确的，而决策者具有一个清晰、具体的目标，并且了解所有可能的备选方案及其后果。Finally,making decisions rationally would consistently lead to selecting the alternative that maximizes the likelihood of achieving that goal.最后，理性地制定决策将会导致决策者始终如一地选择最有可能实现该

21、目标的那个备选方案。These assumptions apply to any decisionpersonal or managerial.这些假设适用于任何决策无论是个人决策还是组织中的管理决策。However,for managerial decision making,we need to add one additional assumptiondecisions are made in the best interests of the organization.不过，对于管理决策，我们需要增加一个假设作出的决策要符合组织的最佳利益。These assumptions of ra

22、tionality arent very realistic,but the next concept can help explain how most decisions get made in organizations.这些理性假设并不是非常现实，但是接下来的这个概念可以帮助解释组织中的绝大多数决策是如何制定的。7.2.2 Making Decisions:Bounded Rationality7.2.2 制定决策：有限理性Despite the unrealistic assumptions,managers are expected to be rational when maki

23、ng decisions.虽然上面的那些假设不太现实，但是人们仍然期望管理者在制定决策时成为理性的决策者。They understand that“good”decision makers are supposed to do certain things and exhibit good decision-making behaviors as they identify problems,consider alternatives,gather information,and act decisively but prudently.管理者明白，“优秀的”决策者在确定问题、考虑备选方案、收

24、集信息以及果断但不粗鲁地行事时，通常会做一些特定的事情并表现出良好的决策行为。However,a more realistic approach to describing how managers make decisions is the concept of bounded rationality,which says that managers make decisions rationally,but are limited(bounded)by their ability to process information.不过，用来描述管理者如何制定决策的一种更现实的方法是有限理性（b

25、ounded rationality）概念。有限理性指的是管理者会理性地制定决策，但是这种理性被他们处理信息的能力所限制（局限）。Because they cant possibly analyze all information on all alternatives,managers satisfice,rather than maximize.因为他们无法分析所有备选方案的所有信息，所以管理者通常是满足（satisfice)某项标准或要求，而不是做到最好。That is,they accept solutions that are“good enough.”Theyre being ra

26、tional within the limits(bounds)of their ability to process information.也就是说，他们接受“足够好的”解决方案。他们在其处理信息的（有限）能力范围内保持理性。Suppose that youre a finance major and upon graduation you want a job,preferably as a personal financial planner,with a minimum salary of$35,000 and within a hundred miles of your homet

27、own.假设你是一名金融专业的学生并临近毕业，你希望获得一份工作，最好是成为一名个人理财规划师，起薪不低于35 000美元，工作地点离你家不超过100英里。You accept a job offer as a business credit analystnot exactly a personal financial planner but still in the finance fieldat a bank 50 miles from home at a starting salary of$34,000.你接受了一家银行向你提供的企业信用分析师职位虽然并不算是个人理财规划师，但仍然是

28、在金融领域而且，这家银行离你家只有50英里，为你提供34 000美元的起薪。If you had done a more comprehensive job search,you would have discovered a job in personal financial planning at a trust company only 25 miles from your hometown and starting at a salary of$38,000.如果你进行过一番更全面的工作搜寻，你也许已经在离你家25英里外的一家信托公司找到一个起薪为38 000美元的个人理财规划师职位。

29、You werent a perfectly rational decision maker because you didnt maximize your decision by searching all possible alternatives and then choosing the best.你并不是一位完全理性的决策者，因为你并没有通过搜寻所有可能的备选方案并从中选择最佳方案来使你的决策最优化。But because the first job offer was satisfactory(or“good enough”),you behaved in a bounded ra

30、tionality manner by accepting it.但是因为这家银行向你提供的这份工作是令你满意的（或者是“足够好的”），所以你接受了这份工作。你是在以一种有限理性的方式行事。Most decisions that managers make dont fit the assumptions of perfect rationality,so they satisfice.管理者制定的绝大多数决策并不符合完全理性假设，因此他们追求的是使决策满足特定的标准或要求。However,keep in mind that their decision making is also like

31、ly influenced by the organizations culture,internal politics,power considerations,and by a phenomenon called escalation of commitment,which is an increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong.不过，需要记住的是他们在制定决策时还有可能被所在组织的文化、内部政治、权力事项，以及一种被称为承诺升级的现象所影响。所谓承诺升级，

32、指的是越来越认同以前的某项决策，即便证据显示该项决策可能是错误的。The Challenger space shuttle disaster is often used as an example of escalation of commitment.Decision makers chose to launch the shuttle that day even though the decision was questioned by several individuals who believed that it was a bad one.例如，“挑战者号”航天飞机灾难事件常常被当做

33、承诺升级的一个例子。当时，发射航天飞机的决定受到好几个人的质疑，他们认为这是一项错误的决定，但决策者仍然选择发射。7.2.3 Making Decisions:The Role of Intuition7.2.3 制定决策：直觉的作用What is intuitive decision making?Its making decisions on the basis of experience,feelings,and accumulated judgment.什么是直觉决策？它指的是凭借经验、感觉和所积累的判断力来制定决策。One survey found that almost half

34、of the executives surveyed“used intuition more often than formal analysis to run their companies.”一项调查发现，被调查的高管中有几乎一半“在经营他们的公司时使用直觉的次数要多于使用正规分析的次数”。Intuitive decision making can complement both rational and bounded rational decision making.无论是理性决策还是有限理性决策，直觉决策都可以与之相辅相成。First of all,a manager who has

35、 had experience with a similar type of problem or situation often can act quickly with what appears to be limited information because of that past experience.首先，一个经历过类似问题或情况的管理者，往往可以凭借以往经验在获得的信息有限时就迅速行动。In addition,a recent study found that individuals who experienced intense feelings and emotions w

36、hen making decisions actually achieved higher decision-making performance,especially when they understood their feelings as they were making decisions.此外，近期的一项研究发现，在决策时具有强烈感觉和情感的个体实际上实现了更高水平的决策绩效，尤其是当他们在制定决策时能够理解自己的感受时。The old belief that managers should ignore emotions when making decisions may not

37、 be the best advice.认为管理者在制定决策时应该忽略各种情感的古老观点也许并不是最佳建议。基于价值观或道德的决策基于经验的决策潜意识的心理过程直觉基于认知的决策影响发动的决策7.2.4 Making Decisions:The Role of Evidence-Based Management7.2.4 制定决策：循证管理的作用Thats the premise behind evidence-based management(EBMgt),which is the“systematic use of the best available evidence to improv

38、e management practice.”这就是循证管理（EBMgt）的前提假设。所谓循证管理，指的是“系统地使用可获得的最佳证据来改进管理行为和实践”。Suppose you were exhibiting some strange,puzzling physical symptoms.In order to make the best decisions about proper diagnosis and treatment,wouldnt you want your doctor to base her decisions on the best available evidenc

39、e?假设你正在呈现一些奇怪的、令人费解的体征。为了对合适的诊断和治疗作出最佳决策，你是否希望医生根据可获得的最佳证据来制定决策？The four essential elements of EBMgt are the decision makers expertise and judgment;external evidence thats been evaluated by the decision maker;opinions,preferences,and values of those who have a stake in the decision;and relevant orga

40、nizational(internal)factors such as context,circumstances,and organizational members.循证管理的四项基本要素是：决策者的专长和判断；决策者已经予以评估的外部证据；该决策的利益相关者的意见、偏好和价值观；相关的组织（内部）因素，例如背景、情况和组织成员。The strength or influence of each of these elements on a decision will vary with each decision.每一项要素对不同决策的影响是不同的。The key for manager

41、s is to recognize and understand the mindful,conscious choice as to which element(s)are most important and should be emphasized in making a decision.管理者需要明白这一点：在制定一项决策时，清醒谨慎地决定什么要素是最重要的并且应该加以强调。7.3 Types of Decisions and Decision-Making Conditions7.3 决策的类型和决策制定条件7.3.1 Types of Decisions 7.3.1.1 STRU

42、CTURED PROBLEMS AND PROGRAMMED DECISIONS 结构化问题和程序化决策7.3.1.2 UNSTRUCTURED PROBLEMS AND NONPROGRAMMED DECISIONS 开放式问题和非程序化决策STRUCTURED PROBLEMS AND PROGRAMMED DECISIONS 结构化问题和程序化决策Such situations are called structured problems because theyre straightforward,familiar,and easily defined.这样的情况称为结构化问题，因为它

43、们是直截了当的、习以为常的和容易定义的。This is what we call a programmed decision,a repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach.Because the problem is structured,the manager doesnt have to go to the trouble and expense of going through an involved decision process.这就是一项我们所称的程序化决策，即可以通过某种例行方法来作出的一项重复性

44、决策。因为面临的问题是结构化的，所以管理者并不需要费心费力地完成整个决策制定过程。Instead,the manager relies on one of three types of programmed decisions:procedure,rule,or policy.实际上，餐馆经理只需依赖这三种类型的程序化决策中的一种：程序；规定；政策。1.Procedure 程序A procedure is a series of sequential steps a manager uses to respond to a structured problem.程序指的是管理者用来应对某个结构

45、化问题的一系列连续步骤The only difficulty is identifying the problem.Once its clear,so is the procedure.唯一的困难是确定面临的问题。一旦问题变得清楚明确,相应的程序也就确定下来2.Rule 规定A rule is an explicit statement that tells a manager what can or cannot be done.规定是告诉管理者能做什么或不能做什么的一项明确声明。3.Policy政策Policy is a guideline for making a decision.政策

46、即制定决策时的指导方针和原则。Policies typically contain an ambiguous term that leaves interpretation up to the decision maker.政策通常会包含比较模糊的措辞，让决策者自己解读。The customer always comes first and should always be satisfied.We promote from within,whenever possible.Employee wages shall be competitive within community standar

47、ds.顾客始终是第一位的，而且我们应当始终满足顾客。只要有可能，便实施内部晋升。.与本社区的标准相比，员工的薪水应当具有竞争力。UNSTRUCTURED PROBLEMS AND NONPROGRAMMED DECISIONS 开放式问题和非程序化决策Many organizational situations involve unstructured problems,which are problems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete.在很多情况下，组织会面临开放式问题

48、，即崭新的、不同寻常的、相关信息很模糊或不完整的问题。Nonprogrammed decisions are unique and nonrecurring and involve custom-made solutions.非程序化决策是独特的、非重复发生的，并且涉及量身定制的解决方案。Thus,few managerial decisions in the real world are either fully programmed or nonprogrammed.Most fall somewhere in between.不过，在现实世界中，很少有管理决策是完全程序化的或完全非程序化

49、的。绝大多数管理决策处于这两端之间的某个位置。7.3.2 Decision-Making Conditions When making decisions,managers may face three different conditions:certainty,risk,and uncertainty.在制定决策时，管理者可能面临三种不同的条件：确定性；风险；不确定性。The ideal situation for making decisions is one of certainty,which is a situation where a manager can make accur

50、ate decisions because the outcome of every alternative is known.制定决策时的理想情况是确定性。在这种情况下，管理者能够做出精确的决策，因为每一种备选方案的情况都是已知的。A far more common situation is one of risk,conditions in which the decision maker is able to estimate the likehood of certain outcomes.更为普遍的情况是存在风险。在这种情况下，决策者能够估计某些特定结果的可能性。What happe