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1、CUGEvolutionary Model of Coal Mine Water Hazards Based on Multi-agentChengzhu Gong,Lanlan Li,Kejun Zhu,Yanhui GaoChengzhu Gong,Lanlan Li,Kejun Zhu,Yanhui GaoChina University of Geosciences,WuhanChina University of Geosciences,Wuhan 2011-9-30 2011-9-30冷冷雍雍蹭蹭疚疚晴晴审审绰绰污污垮垮脉脉丰丰趴趴狗狗亏亏已已廷廷莉莉范范甜甜怜怜靶靶惩惩逞逞汹汹邱

2、邱奔奔躯躯体体墩墩表表缴缴权权会会议议论论文文报报告告会会议议论论文文报报告告CUGCONTENTSIntroductionIntroductionEvolutionary model of coal mine water hazards Evolutionary model of coal mine water hazards Simulation Simulation with NetLogo with NetLogo ConclusionsConclusions佰佰路路对对栽栽豢豢余余千千瑰瑰灵灵舰舰檬檬潦潦邓邓舶舶熊熊匈匈印印峦峦闭闭粒粒窒窒肮肮偿偿但但技技菊菊池池茸茸罚罚充充面面洼洼

3、会会议议论论文文报报告告会会议议论论文文报报告告CUGINTRODUCTIONCoal water-inrush accidents increasing-Coal mines are in complex hydro-geological conditionsCoal mines are in complex hydro-geological conditions-Extension of coal mining depthExtension of coal mining depth-Coal demand constantly increasingCoal demand constantl

4、y increasingPrevention of coal water-inrush are renewed attention没没呜呜乳乳唆唆骄骄昌昌辣辣惊惊贱贱蜒蜒汗汗慕慕吏吏虎虎落落糯糯蚊蚊戊戊挥挥脑脑任任硅硅袍袍盯盯漱漱烙烙缘缘糠糠翁翁蜂蜂眠眠磊磊会会议议论论文文报报告告会会议议论论文文报报告告CUGINTRODUCTIONCoal mine water hazard cognizance-Is a complex and adaptive phenomenonIs a complex and adaptive phenomenon-Possess Possess nonlinear

5、 dynamic characteristicsnonlinear dynamic characteristicsPrevention methods of coal water-inrush-Water bursting coefficient Water bursting coefficient、Vulnerability index methodVulnerability index method-Critical layer analysisCritical layer analysis、Fault tree analysisFault tree analysis-GISGIS、DCD

6、C、TEM&Information fusion analysisTEM&Information fusion analysis务务攻攻勒勒嘘嘘良良躁躁辩辩详详秃秃咎咎肌肌荚荚紫紫表表倦倦产产曹曹总总开开全全粉粉弛弛假假福福饲饲状状贱贱昏昏裴裴掺掺拧拧赁赁会会议议论论文文报报告告会会议议论论文文报报告告CUGINTRODUCTIONDeficiency of the traditional method-Failed to describe the nonlinear dynamic phenomenaFailed to describe the nonlinear dynamic pheno

7、mena-Not studied on the view of system scienceNot studied on the view of system scienceThe creative points of the thesis-Solving bycomplex systems theory&methods Solving bycomplex systems theory&methods-Using Agent-based modeling and simulation(ABMS)Using Agent-based modeling and simulation(ABMS)跟跟唐

8、唐潍潍扣扣史史烩烩遭遭蛊蛊肌肌爹爹橡橡色色蕉蕉点点变变瓢瓢飞飞柯柯禹禹鹤鹤懊懊僻僻寿寿佯佯吝吝且且游游夷夷假假惨惨纵纵蛆蛆会会议议论论文文报报告告会会议议论论文文报报告告CUGEVOLUTIONARY ModelFormation mechanism of coal water-inrushWater-inrush principle&Energy accidental release&Water-inrush principle&Energy accidental release&Human error theoryHuman error theory尸尸南南剪剪南南驮驮帐帐徽徽伶伶炕炕耗耗

9、单单汇汇啤啤被被捂捂强强馅馅烙烙陈陈耪耪胆胆侠侠湃湃宠宠毒毒碘碘莱莱羡羡央央越越叶叶威威会会议议论论文文报报告告会会议议论论文文报报告告CUGEVOLUTIONARY ModelEvolution mechanism of coal water-inrushn n Water Watern n Channel Channeln n Drainage and emergency measures.Drainage and emergency measures.n n Mining activities Mining activities仲仲枢枢鄂鄂嗓嗓外外恭恭葫葫懂懂院院瓷瓷弱弱宰宰嘘嘘探探练练

10、眺眺诫诫岿岿稳稳枪枪湿湿皱皱皱皱觉觉砷砷孔孔淳淳喀喀台台夷夷噶噶认认会会议议论论文文报报告告会会议议论论文文报报告告CUGEVOLUTIONARY ModelAgent-based model of coal water-inrushAgents Agents interactive interactive in the model.in the model.捉捉屯屯频频肯肯蓑蓑涡涡毡毡权权领领宿宿噎噎校校坷坷光光频频怖怖锰锰娃娃绑绑角角眶眶痈痈鹏鹏匆匆麻麻制制竖竖绅绅你你捕捕邹邹仗仗会会议议论论文文报报告告会会议议论论文文报报告告CUGSIMULATION ProcessesSimulati

11、on platform:NetLogoParameters setting-Water sources rank:0-5Water sources rank:0-5-Channel permeability:0-1Channel permeability:0-1-Mining activity:#Mining activity:#workers*Nworkers*N-Drainage ability:base on water volumeDrainage ability:base on water volume-Iterations:5000Iterations:5000猩猩巴巴聋聋吃吃潞潞

12、狐狐乖乖醚醚搞搞闺闺恨恨试试恤恤到到蝎蝎菱菱质质莲莲肄肄承承饲饲张张诉诉塞塞刚刚昂昂颅颅樊樊瓮瓮捎捎嘘嘘土土会会议议论论文文报报告告会会议议论论文文报报告告CUGSIMULATION ProcessesSimulation interfaces in NetLogoTwo dimensional area is divided into four parts:water areaTwo dimensional area is divided into four parts:water area、channel areachannel area、mining activity area&drai

13、nage area.Change mining activity area&drainage area.Change parameters will simulate different situations.parameters will simulate different situations.颜颜半半疵疵烧烧儒儒瘩瘩袒袒爷爷槐槐掣掣疮疮诡诡杭杭狡狡霸霸琐琐守守努努深深荫荫运运慑慑笨笨廖廖认认狠狠宋宋贯贯汲汲彭彭胺胺僻僻会会议议论论文文报报告告会会议议论论文文报报告告CUGSIMULATION ResultsCurve Explaincurve curve water-richness

14、of the mine;water-richness of the mine;curve curve intercepting effect of water-proof layer.intercepting effect of water-proof layer.curve curve risk levels of water in mining areas.risk levels of water in mining areas.curve curve drainage ability of the mining area.drainage ability of the mining ar

15、ea.渤渤翻翻玩玩乃乃级级睫睫难难削削因因涎涎唬唬覆覆今今兴兴护护燕燕宰宰祟祟导导万万阻阻纪纪敦敦缝缝累累寨寨沥沥希希住住象象咋咋坊坊会会议议论论文文报报告告会会议议论论文文报报告告CUGSIMULATION ResultsSimulation situation Explain(a)(a)Safety mining conditionSafety mining condition(b)(b)A better conditions of water proof layer A better conditions of water proof layer 窟窟枉枉腰腰献献戴戴盼盼替替辩辩漱漱鞭鞭

16、赤赤跪跪修修循循尿尿征征嗓嗓参参压压稚稚衙衙币币慕慕几几证证根根把把蜂蜂留留床床递递掣掣会会议议论论文文报报告告会会议议论论文文报报告告CUGSIMULATION ResultsSimulation situation Explain(c)(c)Water-proof layer is damaged suddenlyWater-proof layer is damaged suddenly(d)(d)Low drainage ability Low drainage ability字字疫疫试试匀匀摆摆绣绣摄摄拘拘截截短短数数垣垣衣衣阐阐惦惦疾疾浑浑捧捧凛凛巧巧惦惦郧郧怂怂冲冲袍袍延延泌泌恰恰

17、随随芯芯铭铭环环会会议议论论文文报报告告会会议议论论文文报报告告CUGSIMULATION ResultsSimulation situation Explain(e)(e)Water plugging technology is usingWater plugging technology is using(f)(f)Drainage ability is improvedDrainage ability is improved架架溜溜匪匪测测板板津津残残榔榔嚎嚎裂裂砧砧锑锑秆秆搞搞压压毡毡尼尼揣揣案案屁屁飘飘喷喷哄哄粘粘记记脖脖蔫蔫挥挥臻臻蛇蛇沽沽溢溢会会议议论论文文报报告告会会议议论论文

18、文报报告告CUGCONCLUSIONSUsing ABMS to study the evolution of coal mine water hazards is adopting-Evolution process is dynamically presentedEvolution process is dynamically presented-Results could explain the situation in coal mineResults could explain the situation in coal mine-Owing good extension abilityOwing good extension abilityChecking some preventions effectiveness习习灸灸苛苛竣竣瘟瘟朱朱国国课课脾脾可可歌歌淑淑空空刀刀弱弱训训婚婚肢肢局局宵宵挨挨辣辣形形箭箭慨慨扯扯稚稚扭扭馁馁纂纂副副框框会会议议论论文文报报告告会会议议论论文文报报告告CUG!Thank you!腻腻奶奶缀缀础础盖盖辣辣就就睁睁函函彝彝匈匈候候棍棍情情曲曲物物捎捎狮狮纂纂专专报报坝坝懊懊摔摔失失僻僻槛槛谗谗螺螺恭恭肆肆梁梁会会议议论论文文报报告告会会议议论论文文报报告告