2022年加勒比经济概览（英）-2023.pdf

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1、ISSN 1728-5445SERIESSTUDIES AND PERSPECTIVES 115ECLAC SUBREGIONALHEADQUARTERSFOR THE CARIBBEANEconomic Surveyof the Caribbean 2022Dillon AlleyneMichael HendricksonSheldon McLeanMachel PantinNyasha SkerretteThank you for your interest inthis ECLAC publicationECLACPublications1 151MUA.。彳 A8WSCO。M_xaSo

2、30S36S.-39OSligl恨 电。号 三 2一 dNJI S70 anos de la CEPAL.ED II!Notas de Pobhci6nMetodologias de la CEPAL IPlease register if you would Like to receive information on our editorialproducts and activities.When you register,you may specify your particularareas of interest and you will gain access to our pr

3、oducts in other formats.Register4 www.cepal.org/en/SERIESSTUDIES AND PERSPECTIVES 115ECLAC SUBREGIONALHEADQUARTERSFOR THE CARIBBEANEconomic Survey oftheCaribbean 2022Dillon AlleyneMichael HendricksonSheldon McLeanMachel PantinNyasha SkerretteU N I T E D N A T I O N SMMThis document was prepared by D

4、illon Alleyne,Deputy Director of the Economic Commission for Latin America andthe Caribbean(ECLAC)subregional headquarters for the Caribbean,and by Sheldon McLean,Coordinator ofthe Economic Development Unit,Michael Hendrickson,Economic Affairs Officer,Machel Pantin,Associate EconomicAffairs Officer,

5、and Nyasha Skerrette,Economic Affairs Assistant,all of the same office.The views expressed in this document,which has been reproduced without formal editing,are those of the authorsand do not necessarily reflect the views of the Organization or the countries it represents.United Nations publicationI

6、SSN：1728*5445(electronic version)ISSN：1727-9917(print version)LC/TS.2023/6LC/CAR/TS.2023/1Distribution：LCopyright United Nations,2023All rights reservedPrinted at United Nations,SantfagoS.22-01297This publication should be cited as：D.Alleyne and others,Economic Survey of the Caribbean 2022”,Studies

7、and Perspectives series-ECLAC Subregional Headquatters for the Caribbean,No.115(LCrTS.2O23/6-LC/CAR/TS.2O23h.)Santiago,Economic Commission forLatin America and the Caribbean(ECLAC),2023.Applications for authorization to reproduce this work in whole or in part should be sent to the Economic Commissio

8、n forLatin America and the Caribbean(ECLAC),Documents and Publications Division,publicaciones.cepalun.org.Member Statesand their governmental institutions may reproduce this work v/ithout prior authorization,but are requested to mention thesource and to inform ECLAC of such reproduction.ECLAC-Studie

9、s and Perspectives series-The Caribbean No.115 Econonomic Survey of the Caribbean 2022 3ContentsAbstract.5I.Global and subregional performance.7A.Global analysis and performance.7B.Carfbbean growth performance and prospects.8C.Unemployment.ioII.Fiscal and debt performance.13A.Fiscal.13B.Debt.14C.Deb

10、t Service Payments.15III.Monetary Policy and Prices.17A.Money supply and credit.18B.Inflation,.,.19IV.External sector developments.21A.Tourfsm arrh/als.21B.Current account.23C.Foreign Direct Investment.24V.Conclusion.27Bibliography.,.29Studies and Perspectives series-The Caribbean Series：issues publ

11、ished.30EC LAC-Studies and Perspectives series-The Caribbean No.115 Econonomic Survey of the Caribbean 2022 4TablesTable 1Table 2Table 3Table 4Table 5FiguresFigure 1Figure 2Figure 3Figure 4Figure 5Figure 6Figure 7Figure 8Figure 9Global economic performance and prospects,2020-2022.8Caribbean GDP grow

12、th rates,2019-2022.9Caribbean GDP growth rates index,2019-2022.10Unemployment rates；2014-2021.11Foreign direct investment inflows,2021.25Overall fiscal deficit,2017-2021.14Total public debt,2021.15Total debt service 2021.16M2 and domestic credit to the private and public sector,2017-2021.18Inflation

13、 and West Texas intermediate oil prices,Jan 2021-Mar 2022.19Year-on-year growth in tourism stay-over arrivals,2020-2021.22Year-on-year growth fn cruise ship arrivals,2020-2021.23Current account balance,2021.24Year-on-year change in foreign direct investment inflows,2021.25ECLAC-Studies and Perspecti

14、ves series-The Caribbean No.115 Econonomic Survey of the Caribbean 2022 5AbstractThis survey examines the economic performance of economies of the Caribbean in 2021 and the firstfew months of 2022 and comprises five chapters.The first chapter gives an overview of global,regionaland subregional econo

15、mic performance in the Caribbean.The second provides an analysis of thesubregions fiscal performance and debt burden.The third looks at monetary policy and their impacts.The fourth is focused on the external sector,while the fifth concludes.ECLAC-Studies and Perspectives series-The Caribbean No.115

16、Econonomic Survey of the Caribbean 2022 7I.Global and subregional performanceA.Global analysis and performanceThe global economy returned to positive growth in 2021,as the development and roll out of vaccinesand a gradual easing of restrictions led to improved performance.This worldwide optimism,how

17、ever,was tempered in early 2022 due to the onset of the Russian-Ukraine conflict.This war has heightenedsupply side constraints,arising from global supply chain disruption,increased energy,grain and foodprices in general and escalated inflation,which was very low in the first year of the pandemic.Th

18、econsequences have been very negative for the global economic recovery.To addressthe inflationary effects and rising expectations,Central Banks in developed countrieshave been raising interest rates to put pressure on demand and to eventually cool inflationaryexpectations.The United States Federal r

19、eserve policy of raising interest,has appreciated the US dollarrelative to other countries.While fighting inflation has emerged as the major macroeconomic priority,the downside is a fall in real investment,a decline in real incomes especially among the poor andvulnerable in all countries and an incr

20、ease in fiscal stress for countries that were already in debt distress,due to COVID-19 related expenditures.Under-tightening of inflationary policies,would further entrench the inflation process,erode thecredibility of central banks,and increase inflation expectations.As is well known,this would onl

21、yincrease the eventual cost of bringing inflation under control.Over-tightening risks pushing the globaleconomy into an unnecessarily harsh recession.The policy prescription is to be very surgical withinflation reduction,but with a lack of global policy coordination this is difficult(IMF 2022).It is

22、anticipated that global inflation will peak in late 2022 but will remain elevated for longer than previouslyexpected,probably until 2024.The roleof China is crucial in stimulating global trade at the moment；however,the frequent lockdownsunder its zero CO VID policy have taken a toll on the economy,e

23、specially in the second quarter of 2022.EC LAC-Studies and Perspectives series-The Caribbean No.115 Econonomic Survey of the Caribbean 2022 8In addition,the property sector,representing about one-fifth of economic activity in China,is rapidlyweakening.Given the size of Chinas economy and its importa

24、nce for global supply chains,this willweigh heavily on global trade and activity.Turning to the global economic performance and prospects,the impact of the pandemic on theglobal economy is clear as global growth was-3%in 2020 and jumped to 6%in 2021.All major countriesand regions grew positively in

25、2021,with the most outstanding being India and China with growth ratesof 8.7 and 8.1%,respectively.The growth of the United States was lower at 5.7%.As in the globalfinancial crisis of 2008-2009 the emerging and developing economies grew by 6.0%which was higherthan the growth of 5.2%among advanced e

26、conomies.Latin America and the Caribbean,which usuallybrings up the rear,grew by 6.5%.Growth prospects for the World economy in 2022 is forecasted at a mere 3.2%coming on theheels of the conflict in Ukraine.China,which is beset with new COVID-19 outbreaks and supply chainissues will see a mere 3.2%g

27、rowth,while India will grow by 6.8%,Advanced economies will grow by2.4%and emerging and developing economies,the main drivers of world output will grow by 3.7%.Table 1Global economic performance and prospects,2020-2022(Percentages)2020 2021 2022Advanced economies-4.4 5.2 24Emerging rrartcet and deve

28、loping countries-1.9 6.6 3.7Euro area-6.1 5.2 3.1Latin America and the Canbbean-6.9 6.5 2.7China 2.2 8.1 3.2India-6.6 8.7 6.8United States 3.4 5.7 1.6World-3.0 6.0 3.2Source：tnternational Monetary Fund,World Economrc Outlook,October 2022；Economic Commission forLatin America and the Caribbean.Note：Pr

29、ojections for 2022.B.Caribbean growth performance and prospectsTurning now to the Caribbean,most countries in the region experienced positive growth in 2021.TheCaribbean average growth was 5.1%,with the goods producers growing at 3.8%and the serviceproducers at 6.5%.The emerging juggernaut in the Ca

30、ribbean is now Guyana with its vast oil reservesand considerable growth rates of 18.5%in 202T.As a result the Caribbean excluding Guyana grew by3.5%.When Guyana is also excluded from among the good producers growth rate was-0.3%.Thisnegative growth is due to the declines in Trinidad and Tobago of-0.

31、5%and Suriname of-2.8%.Despitethe elevated prices for goods,including hydrocarbons,Trinidad and Tobago has not been able tocapitalize on this and Suriname is going through a period of economic restructuring.With respect toservices,all the economies except Saint Kitts and Nevis(-3.8%)experienced posi

32、tive growth.Theopening of the tourism markets saw improved performance among this group and growth variesbetween 13.7%(The Bahamas)to 0.5%Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.Despite the war in Ukraine and the inflationary effects it is projected that growth will be positiveamong the countries of the su

33、bregion in 2022.For the Caribbean as a whole growth is anticipated to beEC LAC-Studies and Perspectives series-The Caribbean No.115 Econonomic Survey of the Caribbean 2022 9some 10.4%while the goods and service producers will grow by 15.5%and 5.4%respectively.WhenGuyana is excluded from among the re

34、gional economies growth falls to 4.6%and 3.5%among thegoods producers.Guyanas growth is anticipated to be as high as 52%in 2022.Among the other goodsproducers Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago are expected to grow by 1.5%and 3.7%respectively.Turning to the service producers,growth is expected to vary

35、 between 13.7%(Anguilla)and 2.7%SaintVincent and the Grenadines.Table 2Caribbean GDP growth rates,2019-2022(Percentages)2019 2020 2021 2022Anguilla 5.5-29.9 11.1 13.7Antigua and Barbuda 4.9-20.2 5.3 7.5Baha mas 1.9-23.8 13.7 8.5Barbados-0.7-14.0 0.7 5.9Belize 2.0-16.7 9.8 5.8Dominica 5.5-16.6 6.5 5.

36、7Grenada 0.7-13.8 5.7 3.7Guyana 5.4 43.5 18.5 52.0Jamaica 0.9-9.9 4.6 2.8Monserrat 7.0-5.3 8.0 4.4Saint Kitts and Nevis 4.2-14,2-3.9 5.0Saint Lucia-0.1-20.4 7.0 8.0Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 0.4-5.3 0.7 2.7Surmarre 1.1-15.9-2.8 1.5Trinidad and Tobago-0.2-7.4-0.5 3.7The Caribbean 1.1 9.2 5.1 10

37、.4Goods Producers 0.9-1.6 3.8 15.5Service Producers 1.3-15.9 6.5 5.4Caribbean excluding Guyana 0.8-13.1 3.5 4.6Goods producers excluding Guyana 0.2 9.4-0.3 3.5Source.Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean(ECLAC),onthe basis of official data.Forecast.Aggregates are weighted averages.

38、Due to the fact that overall growth rate were starting from a low economic base due to the closureof Caribbean economies under COVID-i9z an index of production using 2019 as the base period can beinformative.The results suggest that for the subregion as a whole growth in 2021 was below 2019 levelwit

39、h an index of(95.4).When Guyana(170)is included among the goods producers the index rises to(102.1%),which is above the 2019 level.For the service producers the index was 89.6%which is belowthe 2019 income level.Only Montserrat(102.1%)was above the 2019 level among the service producers.In 2022 the

40、Caribbean index is anticipated to be(105.4),with the goods producers having an indexof(117.9)and the service producers with an index of(95.4).ECLAC-Studies and Perspectives series-The Caribbean No.115 Econonomic Survey of the Caribbean 2022 10Table 3Caribbean GDP growth rates index,2019-2022(2 029-t

41、oo)2019 2020 2021 2022。Anguilla 100 70.1 77.9 88.6Antigua and Barbuda 100 79.8 84.0 90.3Bahamas 100 76.2 86.6 94.0Barbados 100 86.0 86.6 91.7Belize 100 83.3 91.4 96.7Dominica 100 83.4 88.8 93.9Grenada 100 86.2 91.2 94.5Guyana 100 143.5 170.0 258.4Jamaica 100 90.1 94 2 96.9Monserrat 100 94.7 102.3 10

42、6.8Saint Kitts and Nevis 100 85.8 82.4 86.6Saint Lucia 100 79.6 85 2 92.0Saint Vmcent and the Grenadines 100 94 7 95.4 98.0Sunname 100 84.1 81.7 83.0Trinidad and Tobago 100 92.6 922 95.6The Caribbean6100 90.8 95.4 105.4Goods Producers 100 98.4 102.1 117.9Service Producers 100 84.1 89.6 94.5Caribbean

43、 excluding Guyana 100 86.9 89.9 94.0Goods producers excluding Guyana 100 90.6 90.3 93.4Source：Economic Comm ission for Latin America and the Caribbean(ECLAC),onthe basis of official data.a Forecast.b Aggregates are weighted averages.C.UnemploymentThe growth performance of the economies has a direct

44、impact on unemployment.Unfortunately,consistent unemployment data for the Caribbean are not available.The table reports some data for anumber of countries,but these are not always upto date.Only in the case of four countries are the datacomplete and these are Belize,Jamaica,Saint Lucia and Trinidad

45、and Tobago.In the case of Jamaicawhere the data set is complete there has been an uptick in unemployment as a result of the crisis.Theunemployment rate rose from 6.5%in 2020 to 8.35%in 2021.A similar conclusion can be drawn for Trinidad and Tobago where the unemployment rate roseform 3.5%in 2019 to

46、4.5%in zozi.ln the case of Saint Lucia the unemployment rate was 20.4%in 2020and fell to 19.5%in 2021 reflecting the strong growth in that year.In the case of Belize；theunemployment rate jumped from 9.0%in 2019 to 13.7%in 2O2O.The last time such a high rate wasexperienced was in 2012 where the rate

47、was 14.4%.ECLAC-Studies and Perspectives series-The Caribbean No.115 Econonomic Survey of the Caribbean 2022 11Table 4Unemployment rates,20142021(Percentages)2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Bahamas13.8 12.0 127 9.8 10.0Barbados12.2 9.8 8.3 8.6 8.3 8.4Belize11.6 10.1 9.5 9.3 9.4 9.0 13.7 10.2G

48、renada24.5 22.9Guyana14.0 13.5Jamaica9.1 13.5 8.6 7.4 5.5 5.0 6.5 8.4Saint Lucia18.9 19.1 15.3 20.4 19.5Suriname5.5 7.2 9.7 7.5 9.4 10.5Trinidad and Tobago2.5 2.4 3.2 3.5 4.2 4.5Source：International Labour Organization I LOST AT and Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean(ECLAO,on th

49、ebasis of official data.ECLAC-Studies and Perspectives series-The Caribbean No.115 Econonomic Survey of the Caribbean 2022 13II.Fiscal and debt performanceThis section analyses the recent fiscal performance of the subregion as it continues to recover from themajor fallout it suffered from the COVID-

50、19 pandemic and seeks to improve public finances as aplatform for more robust economic growth.A.FiscalMarking a turnaround from the height of the pandemic,the fiscal deficit contracted by 3.2 percentagepoints to 3.6%of GDP in 2021.This stemmed mainly from significant deficit reductions among thegood