格拉坦研究所-大流行后对永久性技术移民的反思（英文）-2021.5-109正式版.ppt

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1、Rethinking permanent skilled migration after the pandemicGrattan Institute SupportGrattan Institute Report No.2021-06,May 2021Founding membersEndowment SupportersThe Myer FoundationThis report was written by Brendan Coates,Henry Sherrell,and Will Mackey.Isaac Leeson,Arshiya Merchant,and Ragavi Jeyak

2、umar provided researchassistance and made contributions to the report.National Australia BankSusan McKinnon FoundationWe would like to thank the Susan McKinnon Foundation for itsgenerous and timely support of this project.Affiliate PartnersEcstra FoundationOrigin Energy FoundationSusan McKinnon Foun

3、dationWe would also like to thank Andrew Norton,Chris Murphy,Chris Wright,LaviniaMitchell,Madeleine Sumption,Michael Potter,Mike Keating,Nicki Hutley,RyanEdwards,Saul Eslake,Sean Innis,and Stephen Kirchiner,as well as numerousother government officials,academic researchers,and interested individuals

4、 fortheir input and feedback.The opinions in this report are those of the authors anddo not necessarily represent the views of Grattan Institutes founding members,affiliates,individual board members,reference group members,or reviewers.Theauthors are responsible for any errors or omissions.Senior Af

5、filiatesCuffe Family FoundationMaddocksMedibank PrivateThe Myer FoundationScanlon FoundationTrawalla FoundationWesfarmersGrattan Institute is an independent think tank focused on Australian public policy.Our work is independent,practical,and rigorous.We aim to improve policy byengaging with decision

6、 makers and the broader community.WestpacWe acknowledge and celebrate the First Nations people on whose traditionallands we meet and work,whose ongoing cultures are among the oldest in humanhistory.AffiliatesAllensFor further information on Grattans programs,or to join our mailing list,please goto:h

7、ttp:/www.grattan.edu.au/.Yo u can make a donation to support future Grattanreports here:www.grattan.edu.au/donate.AshurstThe Caponero GrantCorrsThis report may be cited as:Coates,B.,Sherrell,H.,and Mackey,W.(2021).Rethinking permanentskilled migration after the pandemic.Grattan Institute.McKinsey&Co

8、mpanySilver ChainUrbisISBN:978-0-6450879-4-9All material published or otherwise created by Grattan Institute is licensed under a CreativeCommons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported LicenseWoodsideGrattan Institute 20212Rethinking permanent skilled migration after the pandemicOverviewBe

9、fore COVID,Australia was one of the worlds most open countriesfor migration.But COVID-19 travel restrictions have brought migrationto a standstill.This report shows how Australias permanent skilledmigration program should change when borders are reopened.Yet its value remains unproven.The Global Tal

10、ent Program should bescaled back and evaluated before any decision is made to expand it.The number of skilled worker visas allocated via employer-sponsorship and the points-test should be expanded.But these visasalso need a rethink.Permanent skilled worker visas should no longerbe targeted at skills

11、 shortages.Instead,permanent skilled worker visasshould be targeted at younger,higher-skilled migrants who are bestplaced to benefit the Australian community in the long term.Australia should select permanent skilled migrants for their long-termeconomic potential.Skilled migrants tend to be younger,

12、higher-skilled,and earn higher incomes than the typical Australian.Skilled migrantsgenerate a fiscal dividend to the Australian community because theypay more in taxes than they receive in public services and benefits overtheir lifetimes.Employer sponsorship should be available for workers in allocc

13、upations,provided they earn above median full-time earnings of$80,000 a year.This would better target visas to people with the mostvaluable skills,and simplify the sponsorship process for firms andmigrants.Recent Federal Government decisions have taken Australia in thewrong direction.They have shift

14、ed the composition of Australiaspermanent skilled migrant intake away from visas with a track record ofselecting younger,skilled migrants best placed to succeed in Australia.Today,a growing share of permanent skilled visas are allocated toboosting business investment and to the unproven Global Talen

15、tprogram.These changes should be reversed.They could reduce thelifetime fiscal dividend from each annual intake of permanent skilledmigrants by at least$2 billion.Points-tested visas should be independently reviewed to ensure theyprioritise younger,higher-skilled workers.Points should be allocatedon

16、ly for characteristics that suggest an applicant will succeed inAustralia.In particular,the Business Investment and Innovation Program(BIIP)should be abolished.Few investors are financing projects that wouldnot otherwise occur,or providing entrepreneurial acumen that willbenefit the Australian commu

17、nity.BIIP visa-holders bring fewer benefitsto Australia than skilled migrants selected through other streams,because they are older,speak little English,and earn lower incomes.These reforms would deliver big benefits to the Australian community.Abolishing the BIIP would boost the lifetime fiscal div

18、idend from eachyears migrant cohort by at least$3.7 billion.Reforming employersponsorship could boost the lifetime fiscal dividend from each annualcohort by at least another$9 billion.The Global Talent Program,introduced as a pilot of 1,000 visas in2018-19,has expanded rapidly to a planned 11,000 vi

19、sas in 2020-21.COVID-related border closures present Australia with a uniqueopportunity to rethink permanent skilled migration.Lets not waste it.Grattan Institute 20213Rethinking permanent skilled migration after the pandemicRecommendationsRecommendation 1Abolish the Business Investment and Innovati

20、on visa program.Recommendation 2Scale back and independently evaluate the Global Talent visaprogram.Recommendation 3Avoid targeting permanent skilled worker visas at temporary skillsshortages via occupation lists.Recommendation 4Make employer-sponsored visas available for workers in alloccupations,p

21、rovided they earn at least$80,000 a year.Recommendation 5Commission an independent review of points-tested visas in orderto better select younger,skilled migrants.Recommendation 6Require the Department of Home Affairs to improve theadministration of permanent skilled worker visas and accelerateproce

22、ssing times.Grattan Institute 20214Rethinking permanent skilled migration after the pandemicBox 3:Additional points-tested criteria for Innovation-stream applicantsApplicants for Innovation stream visas under the BIIP can qualify foradditional points under the points-test,provided they have:venture

23、agreement/agreements entered into no less than one yearbefore the time(5 points)An ownership interest in a main business/businesses that received An ownership interest in a main business/s that derives no lessthan 50 per cent of its annual turnover from export trade(15points)either:1.a grant from a

24、government body in your home country of atleast AUD10,000 for the purposes of early phase start up of abusiness,product commercialisation,business development,or business expansion(10 points),orAn ownership interest in a main business/s not more that fiveyears before that:1.had an average annualised

25、 growth in turnover that wasgreater than 20 per cent per annum over three continuousfiscal years,and2.venture capital funding of at least AUD100,000 not morethan four years before the time of the invitation for thepurposes of early phase start up of a business,productcommercialisation,business devel

26、opment,or businessexpansion(10 points).2.in at least one of the three fiscal years employed 10 or moreemployees for a total number of hours that was at least thetotal number of hours that would have been worked by 10full-time employees(10 points)Patents or designs registered not less than one year b

27、efore thattime and used in the day-to-day activities of the main business(15points)In principle,a number of these characteristics may be well suitedto identifying migrants capacity for innovation,especially attractingventure capital funding or the application of patents.But unfortunatelythere is no

28、data available on what proportion of applicants attractpoints for business innovation metrics,because this information is notavailable on the department dashboard for the SkillSelect points-test.Trademarks registered not less than one year before that time andused in the day-to-day activities of the

29、 main business(10 points)An ownership in and day-to-day participation in the managementof one or more main businesses operated under a formal jointGrattan Institute 202150Rethinking permanent skilled migration after the pandemicTable B.5:Lifetime income and tax by cohortReal socialdiscount rateAvera

30、gelifetime incomeAveragelifetime taxTotallifetime incomeTotallifetime taxTotal tax relative toRecent cohortCohortSize1%Recent79,40079,40079,400$2,229,852$488,877$453,351$518,160$668,829$367,516$341,372$388,631$503,851$287,628$267,580$303,537$394,944$177,043,544,965$38,815,352,947$166,346,750,492$35,

31、994,259,083$185,765,973,408$41,139,324,985$218,206,047,435$53,101,693,050$131,636,604,406$29,179,659,289$124,001,825,432$27,103,568,869$137,749,703,856$30,855,385,584$162,706,633,348$40,003,279,056$102,168,165,196$22,836,790,772$96,468,297,143$21,244,778,595$106,657,593,880$24,099,294,422$126,539,63

32、3,100$31,356,562,523-$2,821,093,864$2,323,972,038$14,286,340,1031%Planned1%No-investor$2,095,153$2,339,769$2,748,360$1,657,954$1,561,815$1,734,992$2,049,331$1,286,801$1,215,027$1,343,379$1,593,7991%No-investor80 79,4003%Recent79,40079,40079,4003%Planned3%No-investor-$2,076,090,420$1,675,726,295$10,8

33、23,619,7673%No-investor80 79,4005%Recent79,40079,40079,4005%Planned5%No-investor-$1,592,012,176$1,262,503,650$8,519,771,7515%No-investor80 79,400Notes:A real social discount rate of 3%,shown in bold,is our preferred measure and used throughout the report.Size indicates the number of primary and seco

34、ndary migrants in eachcohort.Average statistics refer to the average of each migrant in a cohort.Total is the sum of lifetime income or tax for all migrants in a cohort.Real wage growth is assumed to be 1 percent annually for all groups.All migrants are assumed to work from the year they arrive unti

35、l they retire at age 67.Planning levels without investor visas proportionally distribute the 11,000BIIP visas among the employer-sponsored,points,state,and regional visa groups.Source:Grattan Institute analysis.Grattan Institute 2021101Rethinking permanent skilled migration after the pandemicBibliog

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