全球可再生能源机遇.pdf

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1、Inspiring DecisionsMelvin Chen&Antoine Gaudin|02 March 2023Global Opportunities in RenewablesPrepared for Thailand Energy AcademyCONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without specific permission of Thailand Energy Academy is strictly confidential.Global Renewables OverviewCONFIDENTIAL&PR

2、OPRIETARY Any use of this material without specific permission of Thailand Energy Academy is strictly confidential.Strong policy action and technology development will be required to reach the most ambitious goals of the Paris AgreementWood Mackenzies energy transition pathwaysGlobal Renewables Over

3、viewSource:Wood MackenzieScenario Trajectory Policy EnablersEnergy Transition Outlook(WM ETO)Consistent with 2.5 C global warmingEvolution of current policies and aligns with the SPOs released in Q1-Q2 2022Steady advancement of current and nascent technologiesGlobal Pledges Case Scenario(WM AET-2)Co

4、nsistent with below 2 Cwarming(Global net zero by 2060)Aligned with NZE pledges announced in the run up to COP27Incorporates policy response to the current energy crisis,and geopolitical challenges facing global economy1.5 C Scenario(WM AET-1.5)Consistent with 1.5 C warming(Global net zero by 2050)A

5、ligned with most ambitious goal of Paris AgreementEarly peak energy;rapid hydrogen and carbon removal deployment;consumer shiftGlobal energy-related CO emissions-10-505101520253035402000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Bt CO2-e ETO(Base case)Pledges Case(Scenario)AET-1.5(Scenario)CONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY An

6、y use of this material without specific permission of Thailand Energy Academy is strictly confidential.Net zero pledges now cover 88%of global GHG emissionsGlobal Renewables OverviewSource:Wood Mackenzie,Net Zero Tracker https:/Many countries have confirmed net zero emissions targets in the run-up t

7、o COP27Status of net zero emissions targets by country20%18%39%11%12%Proportion of GHG covered by net zero emissions targets*2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2053 2060 2070By net zero target year:Net zero target coverage reflect CAIT 2019 emission level.CONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY Any use of this material with

8、out specific permission of Thailand Energy Academy is strictly confidential.0%20%40%60%80%100%2022 ETO(Basecase),2050PledgesCase(Scenario),2050 AET-1.5(Scenario),2050Coal Oil Gas Electricity Bio energy Low carbon hydrogenEnd-use demand by fuel outlookEnd-use energy demand by fuel,share End-use energ

9、y demand by outlook End-use energy demand must peak by this decade to meet the 2050 targetsElectricity expands from a 31%share of demand in 2050 to between 43-47%of demand in our pledges and net zero scenarios Global Renewables OverviewSource:Wood Mackenzie 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000201

10、0 2020 2030 2040 2050MtoeETO(Base case)Pledges Case(Scenario)AET-1.5(Secnario)Low carbon fuelsAET-1.5(Scenario)02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,0002022 ETO(Basecase),2050PledgesCase(Scenario),2050 AET-1.5(Scenario),2050MtoeCONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without specific permiss

11、ion of Thailand Energy Academy is strictly confidential.Global power supply by share,ETO 2022(Base case)Global power supply by region,ETO 2022(Base case)Global power supply by fuel type,ETO 2022(Base case)Wind and solar will reach 50%of global power output by 2050Global Renewables OverviewSource:Woo

12、d Mackenzie Electricity output doubles,led by Asia Pacific,North America,and Europe 010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,0002022 2050TWh0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2022 2050010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,0002022 2050TWhAsia Pacific North AmericaMiddle East EuropeAfrica South AmericaRussia and C

13、aspianSolar Wind Coal Unabated Gas UnabatedHydro Nuclear Energy Storage Gas With CCSBio energy Coal With CCS Oil GeothermalGas Hydrogen blending Coal Hydrogen blendingCONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without specific permission of Thailand Energy Academy is strictly confidential.Cum

14、ulative capex requirements,2022-2050,US$trillionUS$45 to$65 trillion in new investments will be required75%of total capital is needed in power and infrastructure sectors;clear policies can unlock the financeGlobal Renewables OverviewSource:Wood Mackenzie$-$10$20$30$40$50$60$70ETO(Base case)Pledges c

15、ase(scenario)AET-1.5(scenario)US$trillionUpstream oil and gas Generation-renewablesGeneration-other Power grid and EV infrastructureBattery manufacturing Metals and miningLow carbon hydrogen Carbon captureRenewables generation sources:wind,solar,hydro,SMR nuclear,hydrogen,geothermal,storageOther gen

16、eration sources:thermal power w/CCS and bioenergyLow carbon H2capex includes midstream infrastructure for exportPower supply,renewables,demand and price variability Grid-connected EVsGreen hydrogenDemand flexibilityEnergy storageNew power transmission infrastructure AI enabled virtual power plants a

17、nd asset managementKey elements that enable value creation in power through 2050CONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without specific permission of Thailand Energy Academy is strictly confidential.APAC Renewables OverviewCONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without specific

18、 permission of Thailand Energy Academy is strictly confidential.Renewables investments grow to US$150 billion a year by 2030 in Asia Pacific,while fossil fuel investments decline graduallyAPAC Renewables OverviewNote:fossil fuel includes coal and gas;renewables include wind and solar;conventional in

19、cludes hydro and nuclear.Annual capex deployment for power generation by technology,2011-50(US$billion)The next decade of the“transition era”will attract US$2.9 trillion of power investments to 2031 as the mix gradually moves towards renewablesTransition eraRapid organic growth and mass marketSubsid

20、y era0501001502002502010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Non-fossil fuel conventional Fossil fuels Renewables Battery storageCONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without specific permission of Thailand Energy Academy is strictly confidential.APAC Renewables OverviewShare of capac

21、ity additions by technology,2022-2026Capacity additions,2022-26(GW)1,542 GW of capacity will be added in Asia Pacific by 2026,with China contributing about two-thirds of the total17%18%37%12%20%29%12%5%27%8%6%27%29%42%20%44%24%44%69%23%14%28%16%11%15%6%10%23%7%49%31%44%7%32%32%16%36%49%40%32%15%30%2

22、6%9%6%7%9%20%25%10%21%48%9%11%8%11%2%Australia35 GWChinaPhilippinesIndia2%Japan11 GW1%Malaysia2%Taiwan RegionPakistanSingaporeIndonesiaSouth Korea2%41 GWThailandVietnam32 GW1,129 GW11 GW116 GW55 GW1 GW15 GW46 GW27 GW21 GW4%Solar Coal Storage Gas Wind Others17%10%23%32%8%10%Asia Pacific 1,542 GWTotal

23、 capacity by countryTotal capacity additions 2022-26 GWCONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without specific permission of Thailand Energy Academy is strictly confidential.Asia Pacific average LCOE for new projects 2020 indexed to 100Coal and gas power LCOEs rose by 16%and 11%,respectiv

24、ely,in the last two years.Offshore wind was the only exception,as its LCOE has fallen 1%since 2020APAC Renewables OverviewAsia Pacific average LCOE for new projects 2020-2023(US$/MWh)Asia Pacific LCOEs have continued to rise since 2020.LCOEs start to fall in 2023 as cost inflation eases.607080901001

25、101202020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Coal USC Gas CCUtility PV Onshore wind7310778961732088211479911788511991105171221841208710616121850100150200250Onshore windCoal USC Gas CC Utility PV Offshore windGrid-scale storage+16%+11%+16%+9%-1%+6%2020 2021 2022 2023CONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY Any use of this mate

26、rial without specific permission of Thailand Energy Academy is strictly confidential.Regulated Semi-regulated Liberalised Fully liberalisedGenerationWholly or mostly owned and operated by government or state-owned enterprises(SOEs);power purchase agreement(PPA)-dominantSplit by private sector power

27、plant owner-developers and state-owned enterprises;PPA-dominant but with a nascent wholesale marketPrivatised but with some legacy state-owned plants;presence of wholesale market with least-cost dispatch mechanismFully privatised;active wholesale markets and development of capacity market and corpor

28、ate PPAsTransmission and distributionFully owned by government or SOE Fully or partially owned by government/SOETransmission ownership remains with government but with distribution ownership or operations partially privatised and/or private investment in grid allowedRetail sales to end-usersNo retai

29、l markets;power plants limited in ability to sell electricity directly to end-usersPower plant sales to large end-users with high demandActive retail markets with heavy reliance on wholesale markets;direct sales to all end-users allowedAPAC Renewables OverviewGradual markets reforms create new oppor

30、tunities like corporate PPAs,but expose projects to more volatility and lower FiTView in 2030 View in 2022LegendTaiwan RegionIndonesiaSouth KoreaThailandMalaysiaPakistanSingapore PhilippinesAustraliaJapanIndiaChinaVietnamPolicy updateCONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without specific

31、 permission of Thailand Energy Academy is strictly confidential.Legacy integrated/regulated utilities These large companies with a fully-regulated business now have a balanced mix of regulated and non-regulated business,low risk profile(e.g.Engie,Enel,Iberdrola,EDP)New developers/platforms Spinoff o

32、f diversified companies or new companies,often specialising in specific,high growth and newer services(e.g.ACEN,Enel-X,EDPR,Corio Generation as a Macquarie platform)Oil and Gas Majors The energy transitions indirectly forces large Oil and Gas businesses willing to growth to(1)Buy brownfield conventi

33、onal renewables,(2)Invest in riskier technologies and greenfield projects.Companies may invest higher risks markets or regulated servicesAPAC Renewables OverviewLegacy regulated utility services-the Energy Transition and deregulation are adding new risksGas TransmissionDistributed HeatingWater Treat

34、mentThermal GenerationTransmission&DistributionElectricity RetailWaste ManagementConventional Renewables(onshore wind,solar)Advanced Metering Infrastructure Energy StorageDemand Side Management EV Charging InfrastructureRegulated utility services,with low returnsNew regulated servicesHydrogen,CCUS,E

35、tc.HigherHigherLowerRelative Risk/ReturnGrowthLowerH2Oil&Gas UpstreamNew non-regulated servicesRiskier non-regulated servicesOffshore windLegacy utilities maintain some of their operation in regulated businesses(left-hand chart)while pure-energy platforms focus on power generation,with fewer revenue

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