1976年巴菲特致股东的信正式版.doc

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1、1976 年巴菲特致股东的信翻译：Rick ）To the Stockholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc,After two dismal years, operating results in 1976 improved significantly. Last year we料资said the degree of progress in insurance underwriting would determine whether ourgain in earnings would be moderate or major. As it turned out,

2、 earnings exceeded研even the high end of our expectations. In large part, this was due to the outstandingefforts of Phil Liesches managerial group at National Indemnity Company.多投致伯克希尔股东：更两年的糟糕业绩之后，1976 年的经营业绩大幅改善。在去年的年报里，我们曾载提到承保业务的进展将决定我们今年的业绩是“还行”，亦或是“很不错”。最下后的事实表明，业绩远超我们的预期。在很大程度上，这归功于 Phil 所领导的，

3、国民赔偿公司优秀的运营业绩。”）In dollar terms, operating earnings came to $16,073,000, or $16.47 per share. Whilethis is a record figure, we consider return on shareholders equity to be a much moresignificant yardstick of economic performance. Here our result was 17.3%,EDITORmoderately above our long-term average

4、 and even further above the average ofAmerican industry, but well below our record level of 19.8% achieved in 1972. OurValueFirst1present estimate, subject to all the caveats implicit in forecasting, is that dollar（operating earnings are likely to improve somewhat in 1977, but that return on equity股

5、may decline a bit from the 1976 figure.资牛1607 万美元，合每股约16.47 美元。这是以绝对值衡量，1976 年的营业利润为投一个创历史新高的数字，但是我们认为 ROE 是个更好的衡量业绩的指标。1976值年，我们的 ROE 是 17.3%，比我们长期平均水平要好，更高于美国产业的平均水平，但是比我们“价1972PDF年取得的最高业绩记录 19.8%要低。综合目前的情况，1977 的营业利润在绝对值上会比 1976 年要高，但是从 ROE 的角度看，可能要号下降一些。公众Textile Operations微信索Our textile divisio

6、n was a significant disappointment during 1976. Earnings,measured either by return on sales or by return on capital employed, were inadequate.搜In part, this was due to industry conditions which did not measure up to expectations（of a year ago. But equally important were our own shortcomings.PDFM纺织业务

7、1976 年我们的纺织业务表现令人失望。无论是净利润率，还是投入资本收益率（ROCE），都处于较低水平。造成这个状况的部分原因是纺织行业的景气度未EDITOR达到我们的预期，但是同样重要的原因是我们自身也存在一些问题。Marketing efforts and mill capabilities were not properly matched in our new料）Waumbec operation. Unfavorable manufacturing cost variances were produced by资improper evaluation of machinery and

8、 personnel capabilities. Ken Chace, as always,研has been candid in reporting problems and has worked diligently to correct them. He投is a pleasure to work witheven under difficult operating conditions. While the first多quarter outlook is for red ink, our quite tentative belief is that textile earnings

9、in 1977will equal, or exceed modestly, those of 1976.更载下在我们新收购的工厂里，营销努力和产能没有很好地匹配。对机器设备和员工素，质不合理的评估（可能指收购时，rick）导致了生产成本的上升。Ken，总是会”将问题报告给我，他正在努力工作，改进这些问题。即使在情况很糟的情况下，和 Ken 一起工作也是令人愉快的事情。虽然 1977 年第一季度很有可能亏损，我们还是预期 1977ValueFirst1年纺织行业的利润将等于或者超过 1976）年。Despite disappointing current results, we continu

10、e to look for ways to build our textileoperation and presently have one moderate-size acquisition under consideration. Itshould be recognized that the textile business does not offer the expectation of highreturns on investment. Nevertheless, we maintain a commitment to this divisionavery important

11、source of employment in New Bedford and Manchesterand believe（reasonable returns on average are possible.牛股尽管目前纺织行业的业绩令人失望，我们仍在努力寻找改善我们业绩的方法。同资时，我们也在考虑一个中等规模的收购。我们必须认识到：纺织业务不会提供高投额的投资回报率。然而，我们承诺继续保留这个业务部门：因为它们为 New值Bedford 和 Manchester 地区提供了重要的就业机会。我们相信我们的纺织业务会取得一个合理的回报。“价PDF众号Insurance公Underwriting

12、信Casualty insurers enjoyed some rebound from the disaster levels of 1975 as rate索微increases finally outstripped relentless cost increases. Preliminary figures indicate that搜the stockholder owned portion of the property and casualty industry had a combinedratio of 103.0 in 1976, compared to 108.3 in

13、1975. (100 represents a break-even（position on underwritingand higher figures represent underwriting losses.) We areunusually concentrated in auto lines where stock companies had an improvementfrom 113.5 to 107.4. Our own overall improvement was even more dramatic, from115.4 to 98.7.PDFM承保业务由于保费费率的上

14、升最终超过了不断上涨的成本的涨幅，承保意外险的保险公司从 1975 年灾难性的业绩中恢复过来。初步的数据显示，财险和意外伤害保险行）业的综合费用比率从 1975 年的 108.3 下降到了 1976 年的 103.0（100 表示承保业料务盈亏平衡，超过 100 表示承保业务亏损）。我们的产品业务线主要集中于车险，资行业（不知道这里的 stock company 是何意？）的综合费用比率从 1975 年的 113.5研下降到了 1976 年的 107.4。伯克希尔的保险业务部门作为一个整体，其业绩改善的幅度更大，综合费用率从 115.4 下降到了 98.7。投多Our major insura

15、nce sector in insurance, the traditional auto and general liability载business of National Indemnity Company, had an outstanding year, achieving更profit下levels significantly better than the industry generally. Credit for this performancemust be given to Phil Liesche, aided particularly by Roland Miller

16、 in Underwriting，”and Bill Lyons in Claims. Volume at National Indemnity Company grew rapidlyduring 1976 as competitors finally reacted to the inadequacy of past rates. But, asValueFirst1mentioned in last years annual report, we are concentrated heavily）in lines that areparticularly susceptible to b

17、oth economic and social inflation. Thus present rates,which are adequate for today, will not be adequate tomorrow. Our opinion is thatPDFbefore long, perhaps in 1978, the industry will fall behind on rates as temporaryprosperity produces unwise competition. If this happens,EDITORwe must be prepared

18、to meetthe next wave of inadequate pricing by a significant reduction in volume.（股我们保险业务的主要部门，由国民赔偿公司经营的传统的汽车险和一般责任险，牛在 1976 年业绩优异，比行业的平均水平要高很多。这主要归功于 Phil 的领导有资方，主管承保业务的 Roland 和主管索赔业务的 Bill 也功不可没。1976 年，竞争投对手终于对过去不足的保费费率做出反应，国民赔偿公司的保费收入大幅增长。但是，就像我们在去年的年报里所提到的一样，我们经验的保险业务线比较集中，PDFM价且非常容易受到社会通胀和经济通胀

19、的影响。因此，在目前的保费费率水平，能值“保证今年的承保业务盈利，并不能保证今后的成本业务也盈利。我们的观点是，号不久以后，可能就在 1978 年，保费费率又将不足以覆盖承保成本和费用。这是众因为目前承保业务盈利，将吸引大量不明智的竞争者进入。如果这种情况出现的公话，我们必须对再次因保费费率定价过低导致我们的保费收入大幅下降做好准备。信微索Reinsurance underwriting has lagged the improvement in direct business. When搜mistakes are made in the pricing of reinsurance, the

20、 effects continue for even longer（than when similar mistakes are made in direct underwriting. George Young, anoutstanding manager, has worked tirelessly to achieve his goal of profitableunderwriting, and has cancelled a great many contracts where appropriate rate adjustments were not obtainable. Her

21、e, as in the direct business, we have had a concentration in casualty lines which have been particularly hard hit by inflationary conditions. The near term outlook still is not good for our reinsurance business.再保险业务的业绩改善落后于保险业务。当再保险业务费率定价错误的时候，它EDITOR产生的影响所持续的时间要比保险业务长。George Young，我们的再保险业务经理人，一直在不

22、知疲倦地工作，以使得我们的承保业务产生盈利。他取消了很多）费率达不到要求的合同。与直接承保业务一样，我们的再保险业务也集中在意外料险产品上，非常容易受到通胀的冲击。我们再保险业务的短期前景并不太好。资Our home state operation continues to make substantial progress under the研management of John Ringwalt. The combined ratio improved from 108.4 in 1975 to102.7 in 1976. There still are some excess costs

23、 reflected in the combined ratio which投更多result from the small size of several operations. Cornhusker Casualty Company,载oldest and largest of the home state companies, was the winner of the Chairmans Cupin 1976 for achievement of the lowest loss ratio among the home state companies.下Cornhusker also

24、achieved the lowest combined ratio in its history at 94.4, marking the，fifth time in its six full years of existence that a ratio below 100 has been recorded.”）Premium growth was 78% at the home state companies in 1976, as market positionValueFirst1improved significantly. We presently plan a new hom

25、e state operation later this year.PDF我们的 home state 保险业务（伯克希尔自己成立的四个保险公司，分别在不同的四个州经营业务，经营范围仅限于该州），在 John Ringwalt 的领导下取得巨大的进步。保险综合费用比例从 1975 年的 108.4 下降到 1976 年的 102.7。这个比率仍然包括了因为运营规模较小导致的费用较高的因素（言外之意，如果规模上（去了，这个比率很可能就低于 100 了。rick）Cornhusker 意外保险公司（在内布拉斯加州经营），是我们最大，也是成立时间最长的 home state（本州）保险公司，1976

26、 年获得了主席杯，因为其股“承保损失/承保收入”的比率最低。1976 年资Cornhusker 意外保险公司的综合费用比率为牛94.4，在本州保险公司中最低。这是投它在 6 个完整年度中，第 5 年低于 100。1976 年，我们本州保险公司的保费收入值增长率为 78%，市场地位也大幅提高。我们计划在 1977 年的晚些时候在另外一PDFM个州新开一家本州保险公司。价“号Our Home and Automobile Insurance Company subsidiary, writing primarily众automobile business in the Cook County area of Illinois, experienced a strongrecovery in 1976. This is directly attributable to John Seward who, in his first full微year,公has revamped significantly both rating methods and marketing. The aut