1977年巴菲特致股东的信正式版.doc

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1、巴菲特研究中心 Research Centre for Buffettism巴菲特致股东的信 1977 年Buffetts Letters To Berkshire Shareholders 1977EDITOROperating earnings in 1977 of $21,904,000, or $22.54 per1977 年本公司的营业净利为 2,190 万）share, were moderately better than anticipated a year美元，每股约当 22.54 美元，表现较料ago. Of these earnings, $1.43 per share

2、resulted from年前的预期稍微好一点，在这些盈余资substantial realized capital gains by Blue Chip Stamps中，每股有 1.43 美元的盈余，系蓝筹which, to the extent of our proportional interest in邮票大量实现的资本利得，本公司依研that company, are included in our operating earnings照投资比例认列投资收益所贡献，至投figure. Capital gains or losses realized directly by于伯克希尔本

3、身及其保险子公司已实Berkshire Hathaway Inc. or its insurance subsidiaries现的资本利得或损失，则不列入营业更are not includedin our calculation ofoperating利益计算，建议大家不必太在意单一多载earnings. While too much attention should not be paid期间的盈余数字，因为长期累积的资下to the figure for any single year, over the longer term本利得或损失才是真正的重点所在。the record rega

4、rding aggregate capital gains or losses，obviously is of significance.”）Textile operations came in well below forecast, while纺织事业的表现远低于预估，至于伊ValueFirst1利诺国家银行的成绩以及蓝筹邮票贡the results of the Illinois National Bank as well as theoperating earnings attributable to our equity interest献给我们的投资利益则大致如预期，in Blue

5、 Chip Stamps were about as anticipated. However,另外，由 Phil Liesche 领导的国家产insurance operations, led again by the truly险保险业务的表现甚至比我们当初最outstanding results of Phil Liesches managerial group乐观的期望还要好。at National Indemnity Company, were even better than ouroptimistic expectations.（股通常公司会宣称每股盈余又创下历史Most com

6、panies define “record” earnings as a new high牛新高，然而由于公司的资本会随着盈in earnings per share. Since businesses customarily addfrom year to year to their equity base, we find nothing余的累积扩增，所以我们并不认为这资样的经营表现有什么大不了的，比如particularly noteworthy in a management performance投说每年股本扩充 10%或是每股盈余成combining, say, a 10% inc

7、rease in equity capital and aPDFM长 5%等等，毕竟就算是静止不动的定5% increase in earnings per share. After all, even atotally dormant值savings account will produce steadily存帐户，由于复利的关系每年都可稳“earningsPDFeach year because ofrising interest价定地产生同样的效果。号compounding.众除非是特殊的情况(比如说负债比例Except for special cases (for example, c

8、ompanies withunusual debt-equity ratios or those with important特别高或是帐上持有重大资产未予重微公assets carried at unrealistic balance sheet values), we估)，否则我们认为 “股东权益报酬索信believe a moreappropriate measure ofmanagerial率”应该是衡量管理当局表现比较合economic performance to be return on equity capital. In理的指针，1997 年我们期初股东权益搜1977 our

9、 operating earnings on beginning equity capital的报酬率约为 19%，这比去年同期稍（amounted to 19%,slightly better than last year and微好一点，但远高于本身过去长期以above both our own long-term average and that of及当年美国企业整体的平均数，所以American industry in aggregate. But, while our虽然我们每股的盈余成长了 37%，但operating earnings per share were up 37%

10、 from the year由于期初的资本也增加了 34%，这使before, our beginning capital was up 24%, making the得我们实际的表现并没有想象中那么1巴菲特研究中心 Research Centre for Buffettismgain in earnings per share considerably less impressive好。than it might appear at first glance.We expect difficulty in matching our 1977 rate of return我们预期未来年度将很难

11、再达到during the forthcoming year. Beginning equity capital1977 年这样的报酬率水准，一方面是）is up 23% from a year ago, and we expect the trend of因为期初资本又增加了 23%，一方面insurance underwriting profit margins to turn down well我们预期保险核保利润率会在年底以before the end of the year. Nevertheless, we expect a前开始反转，尽管如此，大家还是可料reasonably g

12、ood year and our present estimate, subject以期待丰收的一年，而我们现在的估to the usualcaveatsregarding thefrailties of资计是，虽然预测有其先天上的限制，forecasts, isthat operating earningswill improve研我认为每股营业利益在 1978 年应该somewhat on a per share basis during 1978.投还有些许成长的空间。Textile Operations纺织事业多The textile business again had a very

13、 poor year in 1977.1977 年纺织事业的表现依旧低迷不更We have mistakenly predicted better results in each of振，过去两年我们乐观的预期纷纷落载the last two years. This may say something about our空，这或许也说明了我们预测能力的下forecastingabilities,the nature ofthe textile薄弱，或是纺织产业的本质，尽管一，industry, or both. Despite strenuous efforts, problems”再地努力与

14、挣扎，行销与制造的问题in marketing and manufacturing have persisted. Many）依旧存在，虽然市场上面临的困境与difficulties experienced in the marketing area are due产业情势相关，但也有不少问题是我primarily to industry conditions, but some of the们自己造成。problems have been of our own making.A few shareholders have questioned the wisdom of部份股东开始质疑我们是

15、否应该继续EDITORremaining in the textile business which, over the longer留在纺织产业，虽然就长期而言其投term, is unlikely to produce returnsValueFirst1on capital资报酬率明显低于其它的投资，但我comparable to those available in（many other businesses.们的理由有以下几个：(1)我们在纽贝Our reasonsare several: (1) Our mills in both New福及 Manchester的工厂都是当地最股

16、大的聘雇业者，员工的年龄偏高，缺Bedford and Manchester are among the largest employers牛乏转换工作的能力，同时我们的员工in each town, utilizing a labor force of high average资及其公会也已经尽其所能地与经营阶age possessing relatively non-transferable skills. Our投层配合努力改善成本结构及产品组workers and unions have exhibited unusual understanding值合，以使我们的经营得以维持下去(2

17、)and effort in cooperating with management to achieve acost structure价and productPDFmix which might allow us to管理阶层也相当努力同时坦承面对产“maintain a viable operation. (2) Management also has业的问题，尤其是在 1965 年经营权易号主后，Ken Chace依然尽力尽力地协been energetic and straightforward in its approach to众助我们把纺织部门产生稳定的资金流our texti

18、le problems. In particular, Ken Chaces信公efforts after the change in corporate control took place入转到获利更加的保险事业投资与购微in 1965 generated capital from the textile division并之上(3)努力工作加上对制造与行索needed to finance the acquisition and expansion of our销组合的乐观预期，我们的纺织事业profitable insurance operation. (3) With hard wo

19、rk and在未来看起来应该可以维持一个起码搜some imagination regarding manufacturing and marketing的利润空间。（configurations, it seems reasonable that at leastmodest profits in the textile division can be achievedin the future.Insurance Underwriting保险事业PDFM2巴菲特研究中心 Research Centre for BuffettismOur insurance operation contin

20、ued to grow significantly我们的保险事业在 1977 年持续大幅in 1977. It was early in 1967 that we made our entry into地成长，早在 1967 年我们以 860 万美EDITORthis industry through the purchase of National元购并国家产险及国家海上火险公司Indemnity CompanyandNationalFire andMarine(两者为姊妹公司)的方式进军保险）Insurance Company (sister companies) for approxim

21、ately业，当年他们的保费收入大约为料$8.6 million. In that year their premium volume amounted2,200 万美元，时至今日，1977 年的资to $22 million. In 1977 our aggregate insurance premium累积年保费收入已达 1.51 亿美元，必volumewas $151million. No additional shares of须强调的是，在此期间，伯克希尔没研Berkshire Hathaway stock have been issued to achieve any有再发行过任何

22、一股新股以支应成of this growth.长。投Rather,this almost600%increasehasbeen achieved相反地，这 600%的成长几乎都是来自更throughlargegainsin NationalIndemnitys于国家产险本身的传统业务的稳定成多载traditional liability areas plus the starting of new长再加上新创立的公司(包含 1970 年下companies (Cornhusker Casualty Company in 1970,的 Cornhusker产险、 1971年的Lakeland F

23、ire and Casualty Company in 1971, Texas UnitedLakeland 火险、1972 年的德州联合保，Insurance Company in 1972, The Insurance Company of Iowa”险、1973 年的爱荷华保险及 1977 年）in 1973, and Kansas Fire and Casualty Company in late的堪萨斯火险公司等)，以购并方式买significantly reinsurance, withinValueFirst1the National下的(1971 年的家庭与汽车保险、1977)

24、, the purchase for cash of other insurancecompanies (Home and Automobile Insurance Company in1976 年现已更名为中央火险的1971, Kerkling Reinsurance Corporation, now namedKerkling 再保险以及 1977 年的赛普Central Fire and Casualty Company, in 1976, and Cypress路斯保险公司)，以及最后透过行销新Insurance Company at yearend 1977), and finall

25、y through业务-主要以国家保险名下进行的再themarketingofadditionalproducts,most保险业务所得。股（Indemnity Company corporate structure.牛总的来说，保险事业的表现还算不错，In aggregate, the insurance business has worked out verywell. But it hasnt been a one-way street. Some major但情况并非全然如此，过去十年来，资我们也犯过一些大错，不论是在产品mistakes have been madeduring th

26、e decade, both in投或是人员方面，比如说我们在以下方products and personnel. We experienced significantproblems from (1) a surety operation initiated in 1969,面就曾遇到重大的困难：(1)1969 年PDFM价(2) the 1973 expansion值of Home and Automobiles urban推出的保证责任险(2)1973 年扩充佛“auto marketing into thePDFMiami, Florida area, (3) a still罗里达迈阿密地区的家庭及汽车保险号业务 (3) 目前尚未解决的航空 ” 前unresolved aviation “fronting” arrangement, and (4)众置”安排(4)我们在加州的劳工退休our Workers