联合国-《2021世界经济中期形势与展望》报告：预计今年全球经济增长5.4%（英文）-2021.5-31正式版.doc

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1、World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2021United NationsNew York, 2021iWorld Economic Situationand Prospects as of mid-2021*SummaryGlobal growth prospects have improved against the backdrop of rapid vaccination rollouts in a few large economies. Following a sharp contraction of 3.6 per ce

2、nt in 2020, the global economy is now projected to expand by 5.4 per cent in 2021. While the world economy is treading towards a recovery, the pandemic is far from over for a majority of countries. Daily new infections were higher in April 2021 than the number of new infections reported daily during

3、 the peak of the pandemic in December 2020. The stark disparity in vaccination coverage between countries and regions poses a serious risk of an uneven and fragile recovery of the world economy. Timely and universal access to COVID-19 vaccinations will remain a key tool for beating the pandemic and

4、putting the world economy on the path of an inclusive and resilient recovery.Robust growth in the United States and China has improved prospects for a global recovery, but this will unlikely be sufficient to lift the rest of the worlds economies. The economic outlook for the countries in South Asia,

5、 Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean remains fragile and uncertain. With the risks of a prolonged pandemic and insufficient fiscal space to stimulate demand, the worlds most vulnerable countries are facing the prospect of a lost decade. For many developing countries, economic outp

6、ut is only projected to return to pre-pandemic levels in 2022 or 2023.The pandemic has pushed an estimated 114.4 million people into extreme poverty, of which 57.8 million are women and girls. Womenrepresenting most health service workers, caregivers and essential service providershave been at the f

7、orefront of the fight against the pandemic. Job and income losses have been higher for women, as more women than men left the workforce to meet family demands. Womens health and reproductive health suffered massive blows, unintended pregnancies increased, motherhood was delayed, and education disrup

8、ted, significantly undermining progress towards gender equality. Women also faced increased gender-based violence, and women entrepreneurs were disproportionately affected by business closures, further widening gender gaps in income and wealth. These severe and disproportionate impacts on women and

9、girls call for more targeted policies and support measures, not only to accelerate the recovery but also to ensure that the recovery is inclusive and resilient.* The present document updates World Economic Situation and Prospects 2021 (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.19.II.C.1), released in

10、January 2021.iiiContentsSummaryiGlobal macroeconomic trends1Global overview1Pandemic disrupted labour markets worldwide5Disconnect between liquidity and investment7Favourable tailwind for global trade but a smooth sail uncertain9Financial stability risks loom large10More targeted policy intervention

11、s needed11The pandemic disproportionately affected women11Women are highly exposed and yet underprotected11A baby bust poses an additional risk13Girls education in jeopardy13Women losing employment and leaving the labour force14Women entrepreneurship facing a severe blow15Poorer in money and in time

12、15Gender-blind economic policies ignore the specific needs of women16Gender-based policies for accelerating recovery and building resilience17Regional economic outlook18Developed economies18Economies in transition19Developing countries19Africa19East Asia20South Asia21Western Asia21Latin America and

13、the Caribbean22References22TablesIGrowth of world output and gross domestic product, 201920223IINumber of government measures in response to COVID-19, by type and country grouping17FiguresIGlobal progress on COVID-19 vaccination: Number of doses administered2IIAggregate output growth of countries by

14、 sector of economic dependence4IIIImpact of the pandemic on women and employment by sector5IVInformal employment by region6VInvestment growth in developed economies, decomposed by asset type7VIInvestment growth in selected G20 economies8VIIMerchandise export volumes by regional grouping9VIIIShare of

15、 COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths, by gender and country grouping12IXDifferences in labour force participation rate relative to 2019 in selected regions, by gender13XBusiness closure rate by gender and country grouping, May 202015Global macroeconomic trendsGlobal overviewGlobal growth prospects h

16、ave improved since the beginning of the year against the backdrop of the rapid rollout of COVID-19 vaccination in a few large economies, including in the United States and China. The pandemic is, however, far from over for the vast majority of countries where the number of confirmed cases is high, a

17、nd in some cases still rising. The global economy is now projected to expand by 5.4 per cent in 2021 (table I), marking an upward revision from the 4.7 per cent growth forecast in the World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2021.A stronger growth outlook for China and the United States of Amer

18、icathe two larg-est economiesunderpins the upward revision. The United States, with rapid vaccinations, additional fiscal stimulus and the reopening of the economy, is projected to grow by 6.2 per cent in 2021the fastest rate of growth since 1966. Buoyed by a strong recovery in exports and robust do

19、mestic demand, China is expected to grow by 8.2 per cent in 2021. The outlook is, however, less optimistic for the rest of the worlds economies. Europestill struggling to contain the second wave of the pandemicis projected to grow by only 4.1 per cent in 2021, which will barely make up for the outpu

20、t losses in 2020.The growth outlook is also bleak for a large number of countries in Africa, South Asia as well as Latin America and the Caribbean, where the pandemic is still raging. India, with daily new infections averaging over 300,000 during the third week of April, is now the new hotbed of the

21、 pandemic. The worst is far from over for Brazil, Argentina, Peru, and Colom-bia. The total number of new infections is higher for 99 countries in April 2021 relative to the number of new infections recorded during the last peak of the pandemic in December 2020. For a vast majority of developing cou

22、ntries, economic output will remain below 2019 levels for most of 2021. Amid insufficient fiscal space to stimulate demand, many of these countries will face low and stagnant growth and the prospect of a lost decade.Timely and universal access to COVID-19 vaccines will remain critical for ensuring b

23、road-based and inclusive recovery of the world economy. Widespread vaccinations will help to create herd immunity and allow reopening and resumption of economic activities. But the stark and growing disparity in vaccination coverage between countries and grow-ing vaccine nationalism will severely un

24、dermine global recovery efforts.As of 24 April 2021, 1.01 billion vaccine doses have been administered globally, with the United States, the United Kingdom and China collectively accounting for nearly 50 per cent of all the doses administered worldwide. Only about 1 in 10 people worldwide have recei

25、ved a vaccine shot so far (figure I). The vaccination rate is only 1 in 100 in Africa. Securing vaccines for their citizens will remain a daunting challenge for many developing2World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2021Figure IGlobal progress on COVID-19 vaccination: Number of doses admin

26、istered(per 100 people)No data or 00 to 9.9910 to 24.9925 to 49.99Over 50Canada:United Kingdom:Russian Federation:12.431.367.1United States of America:EU: 28.968.2Morocco:China:15.324.2India:10.0Latin America and theAfrica:Caribbean: 13.61.2Chile:73.8Source: UN DESA, based on data from Roser et al (

27、2020).countries, given that a few developed countries have procured most of the available supply to build national stockpiles of vaccines. It would be critically important for these countries to share their vaccine stockpiles with the developing countries that are struggling to procure vaccines for

28、their citizens. Vaccine scepticism and hesitancy pose additional challenges to universal vaccinations. In surveys, more than one third of the adult population in the United States, France and Germany have expressed hesitancy about taking a COVID-19 vaccine.Beyond progress on vaccines, underlying eco

29、nomic structure and sector dependency will determine the strength and pace of recovery. The tourism-dependent economies given that travel restrictions disproportionately affected tourism flows experienced the sharpest contraction in 2020. Commodity-dependent economies also faced a similar contractio

30、n in output. Against the backdrop of an improved global outlook and strong demand from China, international commodity prices have trended higher, which will provide some support to recovery of the commodity-exporting countries. Additional fiscal stimulus measures in the United States, which include

31、large infrastructure plans, will also likely boost the demand for some commodities. For the tourism-dependent economies, including the small island devel-Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material on this map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the pa

32、rt of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Dotted line represents approximately the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir agreed upon by India and

33、 Pakistan. The final status of Jammu and Kashmir has not yet been agreed upon by the parties. Final boundary between the Republicof Sudan and the Republic of South Sudan has not yet been determined. A dispute exists between the Governments of Argentina and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Nor

34、thern Ireland concerning sovereignty over the Falkland Islands (Malvinas).Note: The map represents countries and/or territories or parts thereof for which data is available and/or analysed in World Economic Situation and Prospects 2021. The shaded areas therefore do not necessarily overlap entirely

35、with the delimitation of their frontiers or boundaries.World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-20213Table I.1Growth of world output and gross domestic productChange from WESP 2021Annual percentage change20192020a2021b2022b20212022World2.5-3.65.44.10.70.7Developed economies1.7-5.05.03.41.00.

36、9United States of America2.2-3.56.23.22.80.5Japan0.3-4.83.32.20.30.4European Union1.5-6.44.13.8-0.71.1EU-151.3-7.34.34.2-1.01.7EU-133.7-4.04.03.5-0.40.2Euro area1.3-6.94.23.9-0.81.3United Kingdom of Great Britian and1.3-9.95.15.5-1.73.5Northern IrelandOther developed countries1.7-3.53.62.9-1.30.7Eco

37、nomies in transition2.2-2.73.33.3-0.10.3South-Eastern Europe3.7-3.54.23.50.20.4Commonwealth of Independent States2.2-2.63.33.3-0.10.3and GeorgiaRussian Federation1.3-3.03.03.00.00.6Developing economies3.6-1.76.15.00.40.4Africa2.9-3.53.63.7-0.20.0Northern Africa3.2-5.55.64.0-0.4-0.4East Africa6.50.13

38、.34.50.30.4Central Africa1.9-1.83.03.20.1-0.4West Africa3.3-1.02.73.60.2-0.1Southern Africa-0.2-6.12.22.6-0.70.0East and South Asia4.9-0.17.15.70.60.5East Asia5.31.07.15.20.70.0China6.12.38.25.81.00.0South Asiac3.1-5.66.98.30.03.0Indiac4.6-6.87.510.10.24.2Western Asia1.2-3.23.73.4-0.10.0Latin Americ

39、a and the Caribbean-0.3-7.34.33.30.50.7South America-0.7-6.84.13.10.30.4Brazil1.4-4.13.02.4-0.20.2Mexico and Central America0.6-8.24.73.60.91.2Caribbean0.5-8.14.36.80.54.0Least developed countries4.9-0.34.05.0-0.90.4Memorandum itemsWorld traded1.2-8.19.45.72.52.0World output growth with PPP weightse

40、2.8-3.55.54.40.50.7Source: UN DESA.aPartly estimated.bUN DESA forecasts.cCalendar year basis.d Includes goods and services.e Based on 2015 benchmark.4World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2021Figure IIAggregate output growth of countries by sector of economic dependence2010-20192020Manufa

41、cturing (0.7)Tourism (1.1)Non-agricultural commodities (1.3)Agriculture (1.6)2021-2022Source: UN DESA estimates.Note: Numbers in brackets arethe coefficients of variationof 2010-22 output growth forsector aggregates.6-4-20246oping States, short-term growth prospects remain subdued given the slow nor

42、malization of international travel.Both tourism and commodity dependent economies will, however, face slower recov-ery prospects, relative to manufacturing-dependent economies. These economies will need to take into account the structural weaknesses of their economies to steer recovery and build res

43、ilience against future shocks.Manufacturing-dependent economies saw a relatively mild contraction in 2020. They are also expected to register faster and more robust economic recovery in 2021 (figure II). Robust global demand for consumer electronics and work-from-home equipment will continue to boos

44、t exports from manufacturing dependent economiesincluding China and many East Asian economiesthat are well-integrated into global electrical and electron-ic (E&E) production networks.The size of stimulus spending and their effectiveness will also determine the pace of recovery in individual economies. As o