国际能源署-2021年第4季度天然气市场报告（英）-100正式版.ppt

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1、Gas MarketReport Q4-2021including Global Gas Security Review 2021INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYThe IEA examines the full spectrum ofenergy issues including oil,gas andcoal supply and demand,renewableenergy technologies,electricitymarkets,energy efficiency,access toenergy,demand side managementand much

2、more.Through its work,theIEA advocates policies that willenhance the reliability,affordabilityand sustainability of energy in its 30member countries,8 associationcountries and beyond.IEA member countries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTurk

3、eyUnited KingdomUnited StatesIEA association countries:BrazilChinaIndiaIndonesiaMoroccoGermanyGreeceHungaryPlease note that this publication issubject to specific restrictions thatlimit its use and distribution.Theterms and conditions are availableonline at www.iea.org/t&c/IrelandItalyJapanKoreaLuxe

4、mbourgMexicoSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandThis publication and any map included herein arewithout prejudice to the status of or sovereigntyover any territory,to the delimitation ofinternational frontiers and boundaries and to thename of any territory,city or area.NetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPor

5、tugalSlovak RepublicSource:IEA.All rights reserved.International Energy AgencyWebsite:www.iea.orgAbstractGas Market Report Q4-2021AbstractWinter 2021/22 opens with record high seasonal gas prices,as thecombination of a strong recovery in demand,extreme weatherevents and unplanned supply outages have

6、 led to tighter markets.Such tensions are a reminder that security of supply remains amajor topic for gas markets,only a year after a record drop indemand and oversupplied markets.The succession of market events over the past year furtherillustrates the critical role flexibility plays in ensuring se

7、curity andcontinuity of supply.Flexible liquefied natural gas trade alongsideother major components of the gas flexibility toolbox such asinterconnectors and storage capacity has been and remainsinstrumental to adjusting to sharp and unexpected demand swings(both up and down).Delivering flexible and

8、 yet secure supply islikely to become more complex for systems in transition as theyswitch to low-carbon gas to reach net zero emission objectives.Regulators should therefore adopt a prudent and scalable approachto market design to ensure security of supply in a transitioning gassystem.This new quar

9、terly report includes a review of gas security in light ofrecent supply-related developments,and an analysis of short-termgas market evolution to 2022.PAGE|2Global Gas Security Review 2021Gas Market Report Q4 2021Global Gas Security Review 2021PAGE|6Global Gas Security Review 2021Gas Market Report Q

10、4 2021Main findingsThis sixth issue of the Global Gas Security Review shows thatsecurity of supply remains a central topic for gas markets,as thecombination of recovering economic activity,lower liquefied naturalgas(LNG)availability and a succession of severe weather eventshas put the global gas sys

11、tem under strong pressure and sentmarket prices to new highs.The prospect of further recovery hasprompted the gradual return of contracting activity and investmentdecisions in 2021 that would ensure sufficient medium-term supply,while the need for a transition to low-carbon gases opens newchallenges

12、 for longer-term security of supply.The IEA is closely monitoring global gas market developments andissued a statement in late September as part of its constant dialoguewith stakeholders on security of energy supply.Cold winter and dry summer put immense pressure onthe gas supply systemLast Januarys

13、 cold weather in Northeast Asia coupled withreduced LNG availability led to localised fuel shortages and anunprecedented spike in spot LNG prices.This was followed inFebruary by winter storm Uri that hit North America,with extremelycold temperatures leading to higher heat and electricity needs andwe

14、ll freeze-offs hampering production,resulting in rolling power cutsin several US states and Mexico.Over the following months,several hydro-rich power markets,including Brazil,California andTurkey,faced severe droughts that led to higher reliance on gas-fired power generation and further tightened th

15、e summer gasmarket.Gas prices rallied as market fundamentals tightened onstrong demand and unexpected supply bottlenecksGas year 2021/22 opened on October 1st with record-high spot gasprices in Europe and Asia and lower-than-average storage inventorylevels for the coming heating season.The tightenin

16、g of gas marketsover the past months results from a combination of robust demandgrowth as economies recover from 2020 lockdowns,a succession ofextreme weather episodes that have generated additional gasconsumption,and tighter-than-expected supply as a series ofoutages hampered gas production and exp

17、ort capacity.This succession of events highlights the interdependence betweennatural gas and electricity security of supply a link that appears tobe stronger than ever.The IEAs new Electricity Security EventScale rating,published in its latest Electricity Market Report,showsthat recent weather event

18、s triggered power outages in a number ofmarkets where availability of gas supply was also an issue.TheTexas power crisis of February was assigned the highest ranking onHigh natural gas prices have also ripple effects on electricity markets,pushing prices up and driving fuel substitution in favour of

19、 coal andoil,thus also impacting higher levels of emissions of CO2 and localpollution.PAGE|7Global Gas Security Review 2021Gas Market Report Q4 2021the scale the largest US gas-producing state and where the fuelplays a dominant role in power generation.decisions(FIDs)were also down from their 2019 r

20、ecord high,withone North American project sanctioned in 2020,plus Qatars majorexpansion plan confirmed in early 2021.These new investments,added to the wave of FIDs taken before 2020,should thereforeprove sufficient to satisfy additional LNG demand in the comingyears.LNG trade has continued to be a

21、strong source of flexibility againstthe backdrop of demand volatility,although capacity outages werehigh during 2020 and have remained so in 2021,contributing tomarket tension and price fluctuations.The transition to low-carbon gases results in newsecurity of supply challengesUnderground gas storage

22、 capacity played a central role in providingtrans-regional flexibility during the January cold snap,meetingEuropes additional needs while enabling arbitrage of LNG cargoesto Asia.This episode also emphasised the lack of storage capacityin major Asian markets and their resulting dependence on importe

23、dflexibility;additional measures to enhance storage development andmanagement have been announced in Japan,Korea and Chinasince then.Reaching a net zero emissions objective by 2050 implies theextensive deployment of low-carbon gases in order to decarbonisethe current gas system.This deployment must

24、be supported bypolicies enacted in the short to medium term to prepare for such amassive transition for gas systems and industry.In this regard,policy makers should take into consideration new security of supplychallenges that are likely to emerge in this transition.LNG contracting is recovering slo

25、wlyFuture gas systems will be more complex and decentralised,andwill entail bidirectional networks.Keeping harmonised qualitystandards is likely to become more difficult due to the diversity oflow-carbon gas supply sources and the current absence ofhydrogen blending threshold harmonisation for the t

26、ransition period.The potential to deliver flexibility could be constrained by theoperational specifications of low-carbon gas production.Regulatorsshould therefore adopt a prudent and scalable market designapproach to ensure security of supply in a transitioning gas system.While flexible LNG trade w

27、as a key contributor to adjusting to thesharp demand decline and recovery in 2020,LNG contractingactivity has tended to show a higher share of fixed-destination,long-term deals than in previous years.This can be partially attributed tolower activity from portfolio players,as well as to a motivation

28、tolimit risk in an exceptionally volatile price environment.LNG contracting activity shrank by almost 30%year-on-year(y-o-y)in 2020(or 45%compared to its 2018 peak),while activity during2021 to date shows some potential for recovery.Final investmentPAGE|8GGSR 2021 Review of recent eventsGas Market R

29、eport Q4 2021Review of recent gas security-related eventsPAGE|9GGSR 2021 Review of recent eventsGas Market Report Q4 2021January 2021:Cold spell in Northeast AsiaPAGE|10GGSR 2021 Review of recent eventsGas Market Report Q4 2021The winter crisis in Northeast Asia led to record high LNG prices and rep

30、ercussions across AsiaIn January 2021 cold winter weather in Northeast Asia coupledwith reduced availability of LNG supply and logistical constraints onLNG shipping led to localised fuel shortages and anunprecedented spike in Asian spot LNG prices.Change in natural gas consumption and LNG imports in

31、 selectedAsian countries,January 2021Japan,China and Korea were equally exposed to cold temperaturesand tightening LNG market fundamentals,but local marketcharacteristics led to different outcomes in the worlds three biggestLNG importing countries.Japan experienced sharp electricity pricespikes and

32、a few buyers paid record high prices for emergency LNGsupplies,but power cuts were avoided in the end.China facedlocalised gas shortages and saw the highest trucked LNG pricessince the 2017/18 winter gas shortages in some parts of thecountry.Meanwhile,Korea weathered the January episode withoutdisru

33、ption thanks to the countrys ample gas-fired generatingcapacity and LNG stocks during the cold spell.The Northeast Asian winter freeze also had repercussions beyondthe immediate region,affecting importers across South andSoutheast Asia as well.Price-sensitive buyers in India,Pakistanand Bangladesh w

34、ere forced to cut their LNG imports as spot pricesreached record levels.Meanwhile,some importers in SoutheastAsia dispatched reloaded cargoes for the first time,thus providingan unexpected source of emergency supply for Northeast Asia amidthe crisis.Sources:IEA analysis based on ICIS(2021),ICIS LNG

35、Edge;JODI(2021),Gas World Database;CQPGX(2021),Nanbin Observation;Korea EnergyEconomics Institute(2021),Monthly Energy Statistics;PPAC(2021),GasConsumption.PAGE|11GGSR 2021 Review of recent eventsGas Market Report Q4 2021Japan:Local electricity market tightness and global LNG bottlenecks push prices

36、 to recordlevelsJapan was the epicentre of the January gas supply crunch,ascolder than average temperatures boosted electricity and heatingdemand at a time when LNG stocks were low and the availability ofsurplus generation capacity was limited.Power utilities entered the heating season with lower th

37、an averageLNG inventories and scrambled to procure additional cargoes fromthe spot LNG market.LNG imports jumped by 12%y-o-y and 12%month-on-month(m-o-m)in January,but a combination ofunplanned outages in Australia,longer shipping distances frommarginal producers in the United States and congestion

38、on thePanama Canal prevented even more cargoes from reaching Japanin a timely manner.A small number of distressed buyers in theworst-affected regions of Japan paid record high prices forindividual LNG cargoes,which contributed to the surge in Asianspot LNG price benchmarks to all-time high levels in

39、 January.Theaverage spot LNG import price in Japan reported by METI alsoreached a record level in January(USD 18.5/MBtu).In early January,temperatures in northern and western Japan were2-4C lower than the seasonal average,and electricity demandaccordingly jumped by 14%y-o-y in the first half of the

40、month.Hydropower output fell(with load factors reported in the mid-20scompared to 40%year-round utilisation in 2019)and nucleargeneration was down by nearly 50%y-o-y in January.Only three ofthe nine restarted reactors(Genkai 3,Sendai 1 and Sendai 2)operated throughout the cold spell and another(Ohi

41、4)restarted inmid-January.Unexpected outages at a number of coal-fired powerplants reduced thermal capacity at the height of the crisis.TheMinistry of Economy,Trade and Industry(METI)also highlighted theclosure of 10 GW of oil-fired backup capacity in the 2014-2019period as a contributing factor to

42、the tight power market conditions.Wholesale electricity prices jumped to record high levels(exceedingJPY 200/kWh)in mid-January and prompted calls to conserveelectricity.Power cuts were avoided,but reserve margins eroded insome regions to as low as 3%during the depths of the crisis.In the aftermath

43、of the unprecedented electricity and gas pricespikes,METI launched a two-month investigation into thecircumstances leading up to the domestic energy market tightnessin January.Based on the preliminary findings,the ministry isplanning to implement a number of short-term measures to shore upsupply sec

44、urity.These include new LNG procurement guidelinesand regular monitoring of LNG stocks held by power utilities,whichwere not systematically tracked or disclosed prior to the Januarycrisis.PAGE|12GGSR 2021 Review of recent eventsGas Market Report Q4 2021Japanese buyers pay record high prices for spot

45、 LNG in January 2021Average import price of spot LNG in Japan,2015-2021IEA.All rights reserved.Source:METI(2021),Spot LNG Price Statistics.PAGE|13GGSR 2021 Review of recent eventsGas Market Report Q4 2021China:Record high LNG imports alleviate gas supply shortages amid the cold spellIn China,2021 st

46、arted with multi-decade temperature lows in thenorthern part of the country and Beijing recorded the coldesttemperatures since 1966 during the second week of January.Theboost to heating demand amid the cold blast added to alreadystrong industrial and power demand due to the ongoing economicrecovery.

47、These together pushed Januarys gas demand growthrate to more than 20%y-o-y,its highest reading since 2018.mainly affected non-prioritised sectors,including industrial userswith interruptible contracts.The gas supply situation wasexacerbated by icy conditions on major roads and waterways,whichhindere

48、d truck-based LNG deliveries and port operations in parts ofnorthern China.City gas distributors also reportedly underestimatedgas demand and did not contract enough additional volumes withupstream producers ahead of the winter,relying instead on spotmarket procurement and truck-based LNG,which was

49、difficult andexpensive to come by.The price of LNG delivered by truck at timesexceeded CNY 10 000/tonne(USD 28/MBtu)in the most-affectedregions,a price level not seen since the 2017/18 winter gasshortage.Domestic gas production remained strong,with output duringJanuary and February combined growing

50、by 11%on the samemonths in 2020 according to the National Bureau of Statistics.Butthis was only sufficient to cover a fraction of the surge in demand.Pipeline gas deliveries were down by 5%y-o-y(and 12%m-o-m)inJanuary,driven by a 12%y-o-y(7%m-o-m)decline in Central Asianshipments due to a combinatio