韩国煤炭转型的策略StrategiesforCoalTransitioninKorea（IEA英文原版）.pdf

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1、Strategies for Coal Transition in KoreaThe IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA advocates policie

2、s that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,11 association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international fro

3、ntiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.orgIEA member countries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew Z

4、ealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TrkiyeUnited KingdomUnited StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaMoroccoSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraineINTERNATIONAL ENERGY

5、AGENCYStrategies for Coal Transition in Korea Abstract PAGE|3 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Abstract This report was commissioned by Koreas Ministry of Trade,Industry and Energy and carried out jointly by the International Energy Agency(IEA)and the Korea Energy Economics Institute.The objective of the study was to

6、provide high-level policy recommendations on Koreas clean energy transition from coal in the power sector.The report covers a detailed review of policy and market developments around Koreas transition to net zero.The scope of the report includes all sectors of the economy,industry and all the region

7、s across the world,where we extract the main recommendations that are applicable to the case of Korea.Currently,the power sector is the largest CO2-emitting sector and coal is the single biggest source of CO2 emissions,as it is the backbone of many electricity systems.Thus,coal power plants have bee

8、n a target for reaching net zero emissions by 2050 for long time.Korea has firm objectives to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050,aiming to accelerate the clean energy transition of coal power plants.Policy recommendations were formulated around two priorities:affordable and secure supply of electrici

9、ty and people-centred transition.Strategies for Coal Transition in Korea Ackknowledgements PAGE|4 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Acknowledgements,contributors and credits The report was jointly prepared by the International Energy Agency(IEA)and the Korea Energy Economics Institute(KEEI)at the request of Koreas Mini

10、stry of Trade,Industry and Energy,with the objective of providing high-level policy recommendations to attain the countrys net zero objectives.The report was designed and directed by Carlos Fernndez Alvarez,(acting)Head of the IEA Gas,Coal and Power(GCP)Markets Division.The lead authors of the repor

11、t were Carlos Fernndez Alvarez and Jeong YuJin.Keisuke Sadamori,Director of Energy Markets and Security at the IEA,and Dr Yongduk Pak provided expert comments and senior guidance.Tae-Yoon Kim provided invaluable advice,comments and suggestions throughout the process.Rachael Moore and Ilkka Hannula p

12、rovided useful input and advice for the analysis.Javier Jorquera Copier supported the publication of the report.The authors would like to thank Dr.Sang Lim Lee and Dr.Sung Sam Chung from KEEI for their detailed and constructive feedback on the report.Finally,the authors are grateful to the IEA Commu

13、nications and Digital Office,notably Astrid Dumond and Therese Walsh,for their support in producing and promoting this report,and Erin Crum for editing the report.Strategies for Coal Transition in Korea Table of contents PAGE|5 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Table of contents Executive summary.6 Chapter 1.Coal in cl

14、ean energy transitions.10 Coal in the net zero transition in the global context.10 A new context for the net zero transition.15 Status of coal phase-down pledges.20 The outlook for coal use and emissions.22 Lessons from past transitions.31 Chapter 2.Current transition policy for the coal-fired power

15、 sector in Korea.45 Status of Koreas coal-fired power generation.45 Coal phase-down progress.51 Relevant policies on coal-fired power generation.55 Survey for coal phase-down policy.61 Chapter 3.High-level policy recommendations for the coal transition in Korea.70 Applications to Korea.72 Follow the

16、 principles of a people-centred transition.74 Ensure security and affordability of the electricity system.85 Consider conversion of coal power plants to low-emissions assets.89 References.100 General annex.102 Abbreviations and acronyms.102 Units of measurement.103 Strategies for Coal Transition in

17、Korea Executive summary PAGE|6 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Executive summary CO2 emissions from coal are at the centre of the climate and energy debate Coal is the largest energy source for electricity generation,steel making and cement production,three indispensable ingredients of modern life.At the same time,co

18、al is the largest source of CO2 emissions,responsible for around 40%of energy-related emissions.This puts coal at the centre of the energy and climate debate.The fight against climate change entered a new phase in 2015 with the historic Paris Agreement,in which 195 countries and the European Union p

19、ledged to keep the temperature increases well below 2C,preferably below 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.Despite the strong signal given by the Paris Agreement,CO2 emissions have not decreased since then,with the exception of 2020,in which the pandemic induced a temporary decline.In 2021,a strong re

20、bound resulted in emissions surpassing 2019 levels to set a new record high.The same year,the International Energy Agency(IEA)published its first net zero roadmap,in which a narrow but possible pathway was identified to lead the global energy sector to carbon neutrality by 2050.In November 2022,the

21、IEA published Coal in Net Zero Transitions:Strategies for Rapid,Secure and People-Centred Change;its analyses and conclusions will be one of the sources of this report.In particular,chapter 1 of this report draws mainly from Coal in Net Zero Transitions report.The electricity sector of advanced econ

22、omies must lead the race to net zero Globally,two-thirds of coal and therefore the associated emissions from it are used for power generation,and the rest is mostly for industrial purposes,mainly steel,and to a lesser extent,cement.In addition,in the electricity sector there are a variety of low-car

23、bon technologies that can replace coal,unlike in sectors such as steel,in which there are no commercially available technologies to replace coal at scale today.For these two reasons,the electricity sector should be the first sector to move to net zero emissions.Moreover,given that part of the strate

24、gy for the net zero transition is the increasing electrification of the transport and industrial sectors,such a strategy can be successful only if the electricity sector is net or close to net zero.The energy transition requires important investments,which are more challenging and more costly due to

25、 higher cost of capital for emerging and developing economies than for mature economies.Therefore,the electricity sector of mature economies must Strategies for Coal Transition in Korea Executive summary PAGE|7 IEA.CC BY 4.0.lead the transition to net zero.Following that line,it is necessary to expl

26、ore the opportunities and challenges of the transition to zero of coal power generation in Korea and which policies can help in this regard.The challenges of transition of coal power in Korea Koreas energy sector relies on coal up to some extent.The IEA has developed a Coal Transition Exposure Index

27、,with which we assess the challenges faced by the countries when transitioning away from coal,which reflects that Korea is not highly dependent on coal.As Korean coal production is very limited,the country relies mostly on coal imports to meet its demand.At a national level,coal makes up 27%of total

28、 energy use.More than two-thirds of coal consumption is concentrated in the power sector followed by the iron and steel sector which account for most of the balance.Driving down coal-related emissions in the power sector in Korea will be essential for wide energy-sector decarbonisation in the countr

29、y,as they account for three-quarters of national power sector CO2 emissions(and about a third of overall energy use).Presently,coal accounts for a third of the Korean power generation mix(closely followed by gas with 29%and nuclear with 27%).Renewables,on the other hand,make up about 7%of electricit

30、y generation in Korea.The 57 operational coal power plants(29 of them in Chungnam province)add up to 37 GW of coal-based generation capacity(among the top 10 in the world),and averaging 21 years of lifetime,it can be considered a moderately young coal-fired generation fleet.Moreover,the Korean coal-

31、fired generation sector employs over 50 000 workers(considering both permanent and temporary jobs).Lock-in effects due to remaining uncovered capital of coal-fired plants,a relatively low share of renewable electricity in the power sector,and re-employment needs mark clear challenges for a quick tra

32、nsition away from unabated coal power in Korea.Korea is already making some progress towards phasing down emissions from coal.Coal-fired generation declined from 240 TWh(42%of the power mix)in 2018 to 200 TWh in 2021(34%of the mix),due to coal plant closures in 2017-2021 being offset by increases in

33、 nuclear,gas and,to a lesser extent,renewable output.Plans are already in place(for example,in Chungnam province)to address workers relocation and tax revenue issues.More broadly,the Korean government has implemented relevant policies that impact coal-fired generation,such as the 3rd National Master

34、 Plan for Energy and the 9th Basic Plan for Long-Term Electricity Supply and Demand(BPLE),which aimed to ban construction of new coal power plants and retire(or convert)ageing inefficient units.Further,the Korean government unveiled 2050 carbon-neutral scenarios and aims to base its coal phase-down

35、ambition on a legal framework and compensation arrangements.As per the Korean government,nuclear power expansion will be an essential driver of emissions reductions,as planned in the 10th BPLE.Strategies for Coal Transition in Korea Executive summary PAGE|8 IEA.CC BY 4.0.An ad-hoc survey performed i

36、n Korea among 2 000 adults found that climate change is perceived by Koreans as the main challenge for the humankind,but only the third main challenge for Korea,after socio-economic disparity and ageing population.The government is the most important player in the transition,followed by business,pub

37、lic and municipalities.More than 90%of the participants were aware of the carbon neutrality pledge,but less than one-quarter knew the exact date to achieve it.Concerns about electricity security and price were identified as the main challenges.Around 70%of participants supported the coal transition

38、despite the challenges.More than 90%think that the coal transition must go hand in hand with just transition policies.Policy action in Korea can be a significant driver for a successful transition away from unabated coal use To face the complexities entailed in a successful transition away from unab

39、ated coal use,policy makers in Korea must design and implement a well-studied set of policies.These measures should enable the country to unlock opportunities presented by the clean energy transition,while avoiding unintended consequences of phasing down unabated coal use,such as severe employment a

40、nd economic impacts,particularly in labour-intensive regions with regard to coal.Many lessons can be obtained from experiences across the world as other countries progress in the transition and also,in particular regarding just transitions,from the past.Promote a people-centred transition from coal

41、power A people-centred transition away from unabated coal should ensure fair treatment to workers and communities,opportunities for re-employment or alternative employment,compensation schemes,and sustainable production pathways.Korea should seek engagement and create governance schemes involving st

42、akeholders directly affected by coal closures,but also other parties such as from academia and civil society.Social safety net expansions,retraining and job relocation programmes for coal power plant workers and their communities will be essential to ensure that nobody is left behind.Establishing cl

43、ear long-term energy transition strategies would foster investment in promising technologies,such as electric mobility and renewable energy,resulting in stable job creation opportunities.Another crucial goal should be to carefully design the policy set to avoid regressive distributional impacts.Ensu

44、re security and affordability of electricity supply Electricity security and affordability are two essential components for a successful clean energy transition,and this is no exception in the case of Korea.Coal power plants not only provide electricity,but also contribute to system adequacy and fle

45、xibility and provide inertia to the grid.IEA analysis shows that those services can also be provided by low-emissions assets and storage technologies,which combined with other Strategies for Coal Transition in Korea Executive summary PAGE|9 IEA.CC BY 4.0.measures such as energy efficiency can suppor

46、t a transition to a more sustainable power grid without significant increases in electricity bills.Other tools such as demand response can enable the Korean power system in the future to avoid resorting to high-emissions generation to meet demand.Additionally,enhancements in electricity market desig

47、n,for example on capacity and flexibility payments,can help to provide enough incentives for dispatchable assets to contribute to the system,particularly those that will see fewer operating hours per year than in the past.Finally,investments in enabling infrastructure such as transmission and distri

48、bution capacity will be crucial;this requires social engagement,especially when seeking to speed up the approval processes while still ensuring compliance with legal and social procedures.Make the most out of existing coal assets Repurposing existing coal power plant sites presents several potential

49、 benefits,such as longer asset utilisation,mitigation of impacts on jobs and tax revenues,enhanced security of supply,and making use of existing grid connections that may otherwise take a long time to be established for new plants.Coal-fired plants can be retrofitted to use carbon capture,utilisatio

50、n and storage technologies,helping to decrease their emissions substantially while keeping some of their advantages such as flexibility and ability to provide ancillary services.Other low-emissions conversion possibilities include retrofitting coal power plants to co-fire coal with biomass or ammoni