全球风能报告2023.pdf

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1、GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCILGWEC|GLOBAL WIND REPORT 2023Associate SponsorsLeading SponsorSupporting SponsorGWEC.NETVERI_1101664_COUV_FI_A4_GB.indd 14/02/11 15:40:22Foreword 3 Executive summary 7Wind energy:The coming renewables acceleration 13Part One:A new energy market 17Part Two:Challenges in the s

2、upply chain 23Part Three:The risks and opportunities of regionalisation 33Part Four:The IRA is set to turbocharge the US wind sector 41Part Five:How Europe plans to rise to the challenge 47Part Six:Will China continue to be the market leader?51Part Seven:How to achieve a just transition 57Case studi

3、es 63 Focus on offshore wind 69Markets to watch 83Market Status 2022 91Market Outlook 20232027 103Appendix 1 1 1Table of contentsGlobal Wind Energy CouncilRue de Commerce 311000 Brussels,BLead Authors Mark Hutchinson,Feng ZhaoContributors and editing Ben Backwell,Emerson Clarke,Esther Fang,Ramn Fies

4、tas,Jeanette Gitobu,Navneet Khinda,Reshmi Ladwa,Anjali Lathigara,Wanliang Liang,Wangari Muchiri,Thoa Nguyen,Liming Qiao,Marcela Ruas,Martand Shardul,Thang Vinh Bui,Nadia Weekes,Rebecca WilliamsAdditional contributions Asociacin Mexicana de Energa Elica,Asociacin Costarricense de Productores de Energ

5、a,SER Colombia Asociacin Energas Renovables,Associao Brasileira de Energia Elica e Novas Tecnologias(ABEElica),Camara Elica Argentina,Asociacin Peruana de Energas Renovables SPR,Asociacin Chilena de Energas Renovables y Almacenamiento ACERA,Japan Wind Power Association,Renewable Energy Institute Jap

6、an,Korea Wind Energy Industry Association,China Wind Energy Association,Developers of Renewable Energy for AdvanceMent(DREAM)Philippines,Thailand Wind Energy Association,Mongolian Renewable Energy Association,Indonesian Renewable Energy Society(METI),Iran Renewable Energy Association IRWEA,Electrici

7、ty Sector Association of Kenya,South African Wind Energy Association SAWEA,Clean Energy Council(Australia),American Clean Power,Canadian Renewable Energy Association CanREA,WindEurope.We received valuable review and commentary for this report fromRina Bohle Zeller(Vestas)Dan Wetzel(IEA)Front cover i

8、mage courtesy of VestasPublished27 March 2023Designlemonbox www.lemonbox.co.ukGLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCILGWEC|GLOBAL WIND REPORT 2023 1GWEC.NET 2ForewordCOP27 may have concluded with the target of 1.5C in critical condition,but the global commitment to renewable energy is stronger than ever.Meeting t

9、he objectives of the Paris Agreement calls for us to halve global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.Thats less than seven years to replace swathes of high-emission technologies with zero-or low-carbon alternatives.In terms of energy,this means leaving behind a traditional system designed around fossi

10、l fuels and installing a new one as fast as we can.Aiming for 61%of total electricity generation to come from renewables by 2030,the IEA estimates that renewable energy capacity will have to triple,and that most of this growth is to come from wind and solar PV.1Scaling up renewable energy is key to

11、the energy transition.Beyond the installation of renewable power,this also means installing transmission lines,building grids and storage solutions,and rolling out technologies that enable system flexibility.Delivering to this demand requires stronger supply chains across the renewables industry jus

12、t at a time when supply chains are threatened by inflation,rising interest rates,geopolitics and bottlenecks.Investments in wind in 2022 decreased in Europe,the Americas,the Middle East and Africa.The only exception was the Asia-Pacific region.This marks a paradox during a period when various crises

13、 are disrupting energy security and climate deadlines are drawing closer.Wind energy has never been more needed:it builds energy security,lowers the cost of electricity and supports decarbonisation.Last years investment trends exemplify how faster political action is now critical.This year is crucia

14、l for strengthening the supply chains that bolster renewable energy.Healthy industries require thriving markets.At present,permitting and grid bottlenecks are limiting volumes to a crippling degree.Profitable companies must be able to set cost-covering prices.Policies must seek a balance between cos

15、t-competitive electricity,viable projects and healthy supply chains.In the current environment,prices are often pushed to their minimum,while technical and sustainability requirements increase costs in parallel.Renewables depend on a skilled workforce,access to raw materials,infrastructure and low-c

16、ost financing.Most market outlooks forecast an imminent increase in demand for renewables.Policymakers in major renewable energy markets have begun to address the current challenges by supporting the companies that will be driving the renewables scale-up.The USAs Inflation Reduction Act,Europes Gree

17、n Deal Industrial Plan and Chinas Five-Year Plan are all clear examples of increasing political momentum.This welcome news can bring concerning underlying issues with it.The global wind industrys strength is its global footprint.Opening a subsidy race in support of loosely defined clean energy trans

18、ition technologies while increasing protectionism would come at a huge cost to industries and societies.It is time for governments to realise that serious climate change mitigation and sustainable energy security go hand in hand.Governments must also accept that a thriving renewables industry is the

19、 first step to addressing both.Decarbonisation is too big a challenge for one country or region alone to overcome:only by working together can we unlock the acceleration needed to achieve a clean energy transition.GWEC and its members have an important role to play in supporting sound policies,colla

20、boration and action.I look forward to doing just that.Word from the ChairmanMorten DyrholmChairman,Global Wind Energy Council1.https:/www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2022GWEC|GLOBAL WIND REPORT 2023 3The coming years will mark a crucial transition period for the global wind industry.Later t

21、his year,wind energy will reach the historic milestone of 1 TW of installed capacity.It has taken us around 40 years to get here.However,the next TW will take less than a decade.The energy and climate policies now being pursued by the worlds largest economies in both the West and the Global South po

22、int to a whole new level of ambition and support for wind energy and renewables.These policies are likely to take us to 2 TW of installed wind energy by the end of 2030.They are the consequence of growing urgency in the fight against dangerous global heating;prolonged high fossil fuel prices and the

23、 impact of fossil fuel dependence on security;and the success of our industry in scaling up and establishing wind as one of the most cost-competitive and reliable power sources in the world.While the industry pushed through the new level of 100 GW of annual installations in 2021,the last few years h

24、ave not been without their challenges.Many of the manufacturers at the heart of the industry have seen mounting financial losses caused by race to the bottom pricing,as a result of misguided government policies around procurement and offtake arrangements,exacerbated by higher inflation and logistics

25、 costs.Meanwhile,wind projects have been delayed or stalled by inadequate and inefficient permitting and licensing rules,from Denmark to India to Japan and beyond.This has created the bizarre paradox of energy markets rewarding fossil fuel companies with record profits,while renewable energy compani

26、es have struggled to break even.As this report shows,while companies have regrouped to adapt to the new inflationary pressures,the market has stalled,and the industry installed only 77.6 GW in 2022.All this has come at a time when policymakers are racing to address the energy and climate crises by d

27、ramatically increasing their targets for wind energy across the world.The situation,however,is about to change and 2023 will mark the start of a decisive turnaround.Governments of all the major industrialised nations have enacted policies that will result in a significant acceleration of deployment.

28、In the US,the Inflation Reduction Act has completely changed the rule book for both onshore and offshore wind,while in the EU,policymakers are racing to introduce new rules and regulations to enable the huge increase in deployment that the REPowerEU plan foresees.In China,unstoppable momentum behind

29、 the energy transition continues,and the end of COVID-19 restrictions will see the return of faster economic growth.Large emerging market economies such as Vietnam and the Philippines are enacting new plans for wind,the sleeping wind power giant of India seems set to pick up the pace,and Brazil will

30、 continue to establish itself as a wind energy powerhouse.By 2024,GWEC expects onshore wind to pass the 100 GW annual installations mark,while offshore wind will install more than 25 GW in a single year for the first time in 2025,and installations will accelerate rapidly after that.Market conditions

31、 will change,as countries and regions will have to compete for badly needed We must invest in supply chain to build the next TWForewordBen BackwellCEO,Global Wind Energy CouncilGWEC.NET 4investment in their wind sectors:who gets the investment will depend on who has the most attractive market condit

32、ions and the most efficient regulators.For power equipment and this includes key commodities such as copper and rare earth elements(REEs),power transmission equipment,wind turbines and offshore installation vessels market dynamics are likely to change from buyers to sellers markets as supply chains

33、struggle to keep up with demand.According to the data in this Global Wind Report 2023,spare capacity in the wind energy manufacturing industry is likely to disappear by 2026.For some inputs and in some regions,the squeeze will be felt before then.Both Europe and the US are facing the risk of supply

34、chain shortfalls,and these could be worsened by policies aimed at reshoring manufacturing away from China and protecting local industry and jobs.As this report shows,while creating more diversity and resilience in the supply chain is an important and necessary objective,decision makers will have to

35、design policy very carefully to make sure that it allows the fair exchange of essential inputs for the energy transition,fosters innovation and keeps costs from rising unnecessarily.In order to ensure that the wind industry is able to meet the expectations of policymakers and society at large,it is

36、essential that we start investing in new capacity and plant,and in training and skills,right now.Otherwise,we run the risk that we will not be able to deliver our promises,policymakers will turn to other,less efficient alternatives,and society will fail in its climate goals.This may sound counterint

37、uitive in an environment where companies have found it difficult to keep their businesses viable,but it is a challenge we cannot ignore.Thankfully,the sectors leaders can see the opportunity ahead,and companies are already investing despite the highly unfavourable conditions of the last few years in

38、 new manufacturing facilities,from South Korea to the US to Poland.Much more is needed,and fast.The wind industry will need to forge new partnerships with governments,cities,communities,investors and customers in order to enable the next era of growth.Working together,we can put into place the right

39、 policies,which will allow trillions of dollars in investments to flow and the creation of millions of jobs.As a starting point,we need to leave the hesitancy of the past behind and adopt a new mindset in our industry.The wind industry is no longer the hobby sector of forty years ago.Our technology

40、is resilient and mature,and is poised to play a unique role in the energy transition.Now,in order to deliver on the promises we have made,we need a confident wind industry that is capable of moving boldly ahead.ForewordThe wind industry will need to forge new partnerships with governments,cities,com

41、munities,investors and customers in order to enable the next era of growthGWEC|GLOBAL WIND REPORT 2023 5ForewordIn Brazil,we are living in a time of great excitement and renewed hope in our potential and in the future.The new government of President Luiz Incio Lula da Silva is resuming work on key i

42、ssues that were abandoned in recent years,such as the fight against climate change,protection of the environment especially the Amazon and the reduction of social inequalities.These are matters dear to the wind sector,which positively impacts society from an environmental,social and economic point o

43、f view.The Brazilian wind power revolution has been under way for some years now.The industry achieved 25.6 GW of installed capacity in 2022,with wind energy now holding a firm position as one of Brazils strongest energy generation sectors.In addition to the continued growth of onshore wind,we have

44、great expectations for the development of Brazilian offshore wind.IBAMA,the Brazilian Institute for the Environment and Renewable Natural Resources,has already received project proposals for more than 170 GW of offshore wind energy.This number is equivalent to practically the entire Brazilian electr

45、icity matrix and shows the extent of investor appetite and the enormous potential for offshore wind in Brazilian waters.There is not enough demand for that amount of electricity,however.Thats where green hydrogen comes into play.Coupling this technology with the enormous potential for offshore wind

46、could consolidate Brazils standing as a renewable energy superpower building on its already advanced wind energy supply chain and wider industrial and maritime capabilities.The renewable resources available in Brazil,especially its abundance of quality wind both onshore and offshore,are certainly un

47、ique in the world.This opens a window of opportunity for the production of green hydrogen,which would have the capacity not only to revolutionise Brazils energy matrix already one of the most renewable in the world but also to export green hydrogen to other countries that may not be able to produce

48、all the renewable energy they will need to meet their energy transition goals.Brazilian companies and state governments have taken important steps towards the creation of a green hydrogen sector for the country,including agreements to invest more than 200 billion USD.In January,EDP produced its firs

49、t green hydrogen molecule in Brazil and Unigel will have its first hydrogen and green ammonia production plant in commercial operation by the end of 2023.From 2050,according to the consultancy Roland Berger,Brazil could derive annual revenues of 150 billion BRL from green hydrogen,of which 100 billi

50、on BRL would come from exports alone.1What we are seeing,therefore,is an industry that is already here and ready to grow rapidly,especially considering the opportunities for domestic demand.Currently,Brazil uses fossil-fuel hydrogen in its fertiliser,refining,chemical,food and metallurgy industries.