世界银行+长期增长前景下降：趋势、期望和政策.pdf

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1、Trends,Expectations,and PoliciesFalling Long-TermGrowth ProspectsEdited by M.Ayhan Koseand Franziska OhnsorgeAdvance Edition This book presents a sobering analysis of the secular growth slowdown based on the most comprehensive database of potential growth estimates available to date.With nearly all

2、the forces that have driven growth and prosperity in recent decades now weakened,the book argues that a prolonged period of weakness is underway,with serious implications for emerging market and developing economies.The authors call for bold policy actions at both the national and global levels to l

3、ift growth prospects.The book is essential reading for policy makers,economists,and anyone concerned about the future of the global economy.Beatrice Weder di Mauro Professor of International Economics,Geneva Graduate Institute,and President of the Centre for Economic Policy Research(CEPR)A terrific

4、book that couldnt be published at a better time.As economic growth is in the midst of a sustained slowdown across regions,there is an urgent need for understanding the factors behind these developments and for identifying policy solutions.This volume tremendously delivers on both fronts and more as

5、it also introduces a comprehensive global database on potential growth that will facilitate much needed research in this area.Undoubtedly,the books insightful analysis and policy recommendations will be a useful tool for policy makers around the world for years to come.A tour de force that is a must

6、 read!Liliana Rojas-Suarez Director of the Latin America Initiative and Senior Fellow,Center for Global Development(CGD)Economic policy making is becoming increasingly complicated in the 2020s.In addition to tackling traditional tradeoffs in aggregate demand management and improving efficiency on th

7、e supply-side,policy makers need to address new priorities and challenges,from addressing climate change and its impacts to improving income distribution,all in the context of lower growth rates,waning productivity growth,and flattening of the globalization process that has brought unprecedented pro

8、sperity across the globe and lifted more than a billion people out of poverty.In Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects,the authors do a phenomenal job of assessing these trends at the global and regional levels,identifying and unpacking salient 21st century policy challenges,and providing thoughtful an

9、d evidenced-based policy prescriptions for leaders in advanced,emerging market,and developing economies.Importantly,the book underscores that these challenges tend to be global and,hence,global cooperation at all levels is necessary to achieve optimal results.Alas,we seem to be going in the opposite

10、 direction;this book offers a roadmap to put us back on the path to creating a more integrated,prosperous,and equitable global community.Michael G.Plummer Director,SAIS Europe and Eni Professor of International Economics,Johns Hopkins University Advance praise for Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects:

11、Trends,Expectations,and Policies The book is a timely,lucid,and comprehensive compendium of papers analyzing the growth experiences of emerging and developing economies during the last three decades.It especially focuses on the economic slowdown of the last decade and predicts that the slowdown coul

12、d easily continue for at least another decade.The prognosis is thus stark,and urges timely policy actions.Not just policy makers and practitioners,but equally academics and students will find the book to be a compelling resource for better comprehending the dynamics of the ongoing structural slowdow

13、n around the world,specifically in the developing world.This will also enable all the key stakeholders to come up with innovative ways and out-of-the-box solutions to address this worrisome issue.All in all,the book therefore offers compelling reading as well as a roadmap for future policies.Poonam

14、Gupta Director General of the National Council of Applied Economic Research(NCAER),and Member of the Economic Advisory Council to Indias Prime Minister As if the convulsions of COVID,extreme weather events and the Russia-Ukraine war were not enough,developing countries are facing a silent crisis:the

15、ir long-term growth prospects are declining.This carefully researched and compellingly argued book shows that,thanks mainly to demographic and climate change,potential growth will be significantly lower in the future than in the past.The book also identifies policies that can reverse this trend.We m

16、ust adopt these policies now;we owe it to our children.Shanta Devarajan Professor of the Practice of International Development at Edmund A.Walsh School of Foreign Service,Georgetown University Nobel Laureate Robert Lucas once wrote that the consequences of economic growth for human welfare are stagg

17、ering and that once one starts thinking about what drives growth“it is hard to think about anything else.”In the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis,economic growth in emerging and developing economies started slowing down.This important volume shows that this growth slowdown was not fully driv

18、en by cyclical factors and that,absent a massive effort,in terms of structural policy reform it may persist for the remainder of this decade.Without sustained growth and investment,it will be impossible to reach global development goals in terms of poverty reduction or addressing climate change.The

19、volume provides a unified framework centered on the concept of potential growth and,by identifying the drivers of potential growth,it provides a set of empirically grounded policy suggestions aimed at increasing potential growth.It also develops and describes a novel dataset of measures of potential

20、 growth covering more than 170 countries for a 40-year period.The book and the associated data will be invaluable tools for researchers who are trying to uncover what Lucas called the“mechanics of economic development.”Ugo Panizza Pictet Chair in Finance and Development,Geneva Graduate Institute,and

21、 Vice President of the Centre for Economic Policy Research(CEPR)Advance praise for Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects:Trends,Expectations,and Policies This is timely and important work.It breaks new ground by assembling and analyzing the most comprehensive international database to date on potential

22、 growth and its drivers.It offers valuable advice on policy options to countries as they face the prospect of slowing long-term economic growth and a range of shocks.An essential reading for both policy makers and more broadly for those interested in current global economic trends and challenges.Zia

23、 Qureshi Senior Fellow,Brookings Institution This book is a must read for economists and policy makers alike.It provides a new and unique database for potential output growth covering a large set of countries.The book also offers a thorough analysis of the drivers of potential output growth.It argue

24、s that the recent weakness in growth will continue for the remainder of the present decade and comes up with policy conclusions to reverse this trend.Jakob de Haan Professor of Political Economy,University of Groningen,The Netherlands Advance praise for Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects:Trends,Expe

25、ctations,and Policies v Falling LongFalling LongFalling LongFalling Long-Term Term Term Term Growth ProspectsGrowth ProspectsGrowth ProspectsGrowth Prospects Falling LongFalling LongFalling LongFalling Long-Term Term Term Term Growth ProspectsGrowth ProspectsGrowth ProspectsGrowth Prospects Edited b

26、y Trends,Expectations,and Policies M.Ayhan Kose and Franziska Ohnsorge Advance Edition The text of this advance edition is a work in progress for the forthcoming book Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects:Trends,Expectations,and Policies.A PDF of the final book,once published,will be available at https

27、:/openknowledge.worldbank.org/,and print copies can be ordered at .Please use the final version of the book for citation,reproduction,and adaptation purposes.2023 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433 Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet

28、:www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions.The findings,interpretations,and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank,its Board of Executive Directors,or the governments they represent.The World

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30、set forth.The boundaries,colors,denominations,and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed o

31、r considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank,all of which are specifically reserved.Rights and Permissions This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license(CC BY 3.0 IGO)http:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo.Un

32、der the Creative Commons Attribution license,you are free to copy,distribute,transmit,and adapt this work,including for commercial purposes,under the following conditions:AttributionPlease cite the work as follows:Kose,M.Ayhan,and Ohnsorge,Franziska,eds.2023.Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects:Trends

33、,Expectations,and Policies.Washington,DC:World Bank.License:Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO TranslationsIf you create a translation of this work,please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered a

34、n official World Bank translation.The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation.AdaptationsIf you create an adaptation of this work,please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank.Views and o

35、pinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank.Third-party contentThe World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work.The World Bank therefore does not warra

36、nt that the use of any third-party-owned individual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties.The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you.If you wish to re-use a component of the work,it is your responsibility to dete

37、rmine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner.Examples of components can include,but are not limited to,tables,figures,or images.All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications,The World Bank Group,1818 H Street

38、 NW,Washington,DC 20433,USA;e-mail:pubrightsworldbank.org.Cover image:Getty Images.Used with the permission of Getty Images.Further permission required for reuse.Cover design:Adriana Maximiliano,World Bank Group.ix Summary of Contents Foreword.xix Acknowledgments.xxiii Authors.xxv Abbreviations.xxvi

39、i Overview.o.1 M.Ayhan Kose and Franziska OhnsorgePart I.Potential Growth:An Economys Speed Limit.1 Chapter 1 Potential Not Realized:An International Database of Potential Growth.3 Sinem Kilic Celik,M.Ayhan Kose,Franziska Ohnsorge,and Franz Ulrich Ruch Chapter 2 Regional Dimensions of Potential Grow

40、th:Hopes and Realities .65 Sergiy Kasyanenko,Philip Kenworthy,Sinem Kilic Celik,Franz Ulrich Ruch,Ekaterine Vashakmadze,Collette Wheeler Part II.Investment:Time for a Big Push.151 Chapter 3 The Global Investment Slowdown:Challenges and Policies.153 Kersten Stamm and Dana Vorisek Chapter 4 Regional D

41、imensions of Investment:Moving in the Right Direction?.211 Sergiy Kasyanenko,Philip Kenworthy,Sinem Kilic Celik,Franz Ulrich Ruch,Ekaterine Vashakmadze,Dana Vorisek,and Collette Wheeler Part III.Policies:Recognition,Formulation,and Implementation.287 Chapter 5 Potential Growth Prospects:Risks,Reward

42、s,and Policies .289 Sinem Kilic Celik,M.Ayhan Kose,and Franziska Ohnsorge Chapter 6 Trade as an Engine of Growth:Sputtering but Fixable.327 Franziska Ohnsorge and Lucia Quaglietti Chapter 7 Services-Led Growth:Better Prospects after the Pandemic?.367 Gaurav Nayyar and Elwyn Davies xi Contents Forewo

43、rd.xix Acknowledgments.xxiii Authors.xxv Abbreviations.xxvii Overview.o.1 Slowing growth,dimming prospects.o.1 Magnifying challenges.o.4 One tool to meet multiple policy priorities.o.4 Understanding long-term growth:A framework.o.6 Contributions to the literature.o.6 Key findings and policy messages

44、.o.8 Synopsis.o.20 Future research directions.o.44 Annex A Tables.o.47 References.r.o.1 Part I.Potential Growth:An Economys Speed Limit.1 Chapter 1 Potential Not Realized:An International Database of Potential Growth.3 Introduction.3 Database.7 Evolution of potential growth.12 How do short-term shoc

45、ks affect potential growth?.24 Conclusions.26 Annex 1A Production function approach.31 Annex 1B Univariate filters.35 Annex 1C Multivariate filters.37 Annex 1D Long-term growth expectations.40 Annex 1E Local projection estimation.41 Annex 1F Tables.42 References.r.1.1 Chapter 2 Regional Dimensions o

46、f Potential Growth:Hopes and Realities.65 Introduction.65 Regional potential growth in the rear-view mirror.67 xii Prospects for regional potential growth.70 Regional reform priorities.72 East Asia and Pacific.74 Europe and Central Asia.87 Latin America and the Caribbean.104 Middle East and North Af

47、rica.116 South Asia.127 Sub-Saharan Africa.138 References.r.2.1 Part II.Investment:Time for a Big Push.151 Chapter 3 The Global Investment Slowdown:Challenges and Policies.153 Introduction.153 Trends and fluctuations in investment growth.157 Macroeconomic backdrop.161 Box 3.1 Investment-less credit

48、booms.164 Empirical analysis of investment growth.171 Investment prospects.172 Implications of weak investment growth.175 Box 3.2 Macroeconomic implications of foreign direct investment in EMDEs.176 Policies to promote investment growth.190 Conclusion.196 Annex 3A Determinants of investment growth:e

49、mpirical framework.199 Annex 3B Investment growth and reforms.201 Annex 3C Tables.202 References.r.3.1 Chapter 4 Regional Dimensions of Investment:Moving in the Right Direction?.211 Introduction.211 Investment trends.212 Investment needs.215 Policies to boost investment.218 East Asia and Pacific.220

50、 Europe and Central Asia.230 Latin America and the Caribbean.243 Middle East and North Africa.254 xiii South Asia.264 Sub-Saharan Africa .275 References.r.4.1 Part III.Policies:Recognition,Formulation,and Implementation.287 Chapter 5 Potential Growth Prospects:Risks,Rewards,and Policies.289 Introduc