亚开行-人口老龄化、白银红利与经济增长（英）-2023.3.pdf

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1、ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANKASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK6 ADB Avenue,Mandaluyong City1550 Metro Manila,Philippineswww.adb.orgPopulation Aging,Silver Dividend,and Economic GrowthThe silver dividend refers to increased longevity and longer working life becoming potential sources of growth in an aging society.The

2、authors examine the potential for a silver dividend by empirically investigating the channels through which population aging affects economic growth.They find that lower total factor productivity growth is the main mechanism through which population aging harms economic growth.Labor shortage caused

3、by aging is mostly offset by higher labor force participation rates of the elderly.About the Asian Development BankADB is committed to achieving a prosperous,inclusive,resilient,and sustainable Asia and the Pacific,while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty.Established in 1966,it is o

4、wned by 68 members 49 from the region.Its main instruments for helping its developing member countries are policy dialogue,loans,equity investments,guarantees,grants,and technical assistance.POPULATION AGING,SILVER DIVIDEND,AND ECONOMIC GROWTHDonghyun Park and Kwanho ShinADB ECONOMICSWORKING PAPER S

5、ERIESNO.678March 2023ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANKADB Economics Working Paper SeriesPopulation Aging,Silver Dividend,and Economic GrowthDonghyun Park and Kwanho ShinNo.678|March 2023Donghyun Park(dparkadb.org)is an economic advisor at the Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department,Asian Developm

6、ent Bank.Kwanho Shin(khshinkorea.ac.kr)is a professor at the Department of Economics,Korea University.The ADB Economics Working Paper Series presents research in progress to elicit comments and encourage debate on development issues in Asia and the Pacific.The views expressed are those of the author

7、s and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of ADB or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent.Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license(CC BY 3.0 IGO)2023 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue,Mandaluyong City,1550 Metro Manila,PhilippinesTel+63 2 8632 4444;Fax+63 2 8636

8、 2444www.adb.orgSome rights reserved.Published in 2023.ISSN 2313-6537(print),2313-6545(electronic)Publication Stock No.WPS230070-2DOI:http:/dx.doi.org/10.22617/WPS230070-2The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies ofthe Asia

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14、es not fall within these terms,or for permission to use theADB logo.Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http:/www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda.Note:ADB recognizes“Korea”as the Republic of Korea.The ADB Economics Working Paper Series presents data,information,and/or findings from ongoin

15、g research and studies to encourage exchange of ideas and to elicit comment and feedback about development issues in Asia and the Pacific.Since papers in this series are intended for quick and easy dissemination,the content may or may not be fully edited and may later be modified for final publicati

16、on.ABSTRACT While there are growing concerns about population aging,some studies explore the possibility that population aging can give rise to a silver dividend that contributes to economic growth(ADB 2019).While the demographic dividend refers to the increase of the working-age population,the silv

17、er dividend points to increased longevity and longer working life as potential sources of growth in an aging society.Extending Lee and Shin(2021)to include developing countries,we examine the potential for a silver dividend by investigating the channels through which population aging affects economi

18、c growth.We find that lower total factor productivity growth is the main mechanism through which population aging harms economic growth.Labor shortage caused by population aging is mostly offset by higher labor force participation rates of males,females,and older workers.In particular,the labor forc

19、e participation rate of the older people increases the most.1 Keywords:aging,growth,labor force participation,total factor productivity,silver dividend JEL codes:J10,O40,J21,O47,E2 The authors are grateful for the financial support from the Asian Development Bank and would like to thank Charles Hori

20、oka and other seminar participants at Kobe University;Sang-Hyop Lee,Andrew Mason,Aiko Kikkawa,and other seminar participants at the Asian Development Bank;and Hye-In Han for her excellent research assistance.1.Introduction It has been argued that the demographic dividendthe expansion of working-age

21、population during the demographic transitionwas essential for the fast growth of East Asian economies(Bloom and Williamson 1998).However,a number of Asian economies are experiencing rapid population aging,slower growth or even contraction of workforce,and slower economic growth(Park and Shin 2012,20

22、22;Mason and Lee 2012).However,there is also some optimism that population aging can yield a silver dividend which can offset the reduction of the demographic dividend(Ogawa et al.2021,ADB 2019).While the demographic dividend refers to the increase in the working-age population,the silver dividend p

23、oints to longevity and longer working life as potential sources of growth in an aging society.In particular,encouraging older people to continue to learn can motivate them to participate in the labor market.1 The estimation of both demographic dividend and the silver dividend in most existing studie

24、s assume that population aging affects economic growth mainly through its effect on the workforce.Theoretically,however,the negative growth effects of aging operate through other channels as well.An aging population lowers the saving rate(Park,Shin,and Whang 2010;Horioka and Niimi 2017),slowing capi

25、tal accumulation and consequently lowering economic growth.The decline in the number of children also affects the accumulation of human capital by affecting the motivation to invest in their human capital(Becker and Nigel 1973).Finally,aging 1 The recent development of new technologies such as robot

26、s and artificial intelligence can be friendlier toward old workers and help them become more productive.(Park,Shin,and Kikkawa 2021;2022).2 has a negative effect on the growth rate of total factor productivity(TFP)since older people tend to be less innovative,leading to lower technological progress(

27、Jones 2010).2 Empirical studies on the various channels through which aging affects economic growth find that lower TFP growth is the most important channel.3 For example,Maestas,Mullen,and Powell(2022)find that two-thirds of the negative effect of aging is explained by slower productivity growth.Mo

28、re recently,based on data from 35 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD)countries,Lee and Shin(2021)investigated six channels through which population aging affects the growth rate of per capita gross domestic product(GDP).The six channels are changes in:(i)physical capital;(ii

29、)human capital;(iii)average working hours;(iv)labor participation rate;(v)the share of population aged 15 and over;and(vi)TFP.They find that population aging harms economic growth primarily through slower TFP growth.We extend Lee and Shin(2021)to include developing countries and examine whether popu

30、lation aging has a different impact on economic growth depending on the characteristics of each economy.Based on our panel data set of countries,we investigate how countries differ in the relative importance of the different channels depending on the value of the following characteristics:(i)old dep

31、endency ratio,(ii)human capital,(iii)life expectancy,(iv)labor market flexibility,(v)government size,(vi)trade openness,and(vii)capital market openness.We find that the main channel of the negative growth effect of 2 Liang,Wang,and Lazear(2018)argue that as an economy gets aged,older workers occupy

32、high-level positions and block younger workers from acquiring skills,which eventually impedes innovation.Derrien,Kecsks,and Nguyen(2018);Aksoy et al.(2019);and Lee and Shin(2021)provide evidence that aging lowers the growth rate of TFP based on advanced-economy data.3 More generally,even for the oth

33、er determinants of economic growth,Wong(2007)shows that TFP growth is the main channel.3 population aging is reduced TFP growth.Previous studies find these results based mostly on data from advanced countries.However,we confirm this finding even using a much broader sample of 166 countries encompass

34、ing both advanced and developing economies.Labor shortage caused by population aging is mostly offset by higher labor force participation rates of males,females,and old workers.In particular,the shortage seems to cause a remarkable increase in the labor force participation rate among older people.Si

35、gnificantly,labor shortage due to aging does not seem to be a problem in most countries due to higher labor force participation.We find that higher life expectancy,human capital,and trade openness amplify the mitigating effect of the increased labor force participation rate among older people.Groupi

36、ng countries according to the values of the seven characteristics listed previously,we find nonlinear effects of population aging.In particular,the effect of population aging is not even negative for countries with low values of some characteristics.In addition,we find that the mitigating effect of

37、higher labor force participation rate is not enough to offset the negative growth effect of population aging.Although the shortage of labor force can be completely offset by higher labor force participation,the primary channel for the negative growth effect of aging is reduced TFP growth,which is di

38、fficult to offset.This is especially true for countries with high-value characteristics,which are mostly advanced countries.The rest of the paper is organized as follows:Section 2 explains the empirical specification,Section 3 reports our main empirical results,and Section 4 concludes.4 2.Empirical

39、Specification and Data In this section,we describe our empirical framework and data.The empirical specification follows Lee and Shin(2021).Assuming a Cobb-Douglas production function,output per capita is represented as:y=?/?(?)/?(1)where y=?,=?,?=?,A is the TFP level,is labor income share,h is avera

40、ge human capital,v is average working hours,p is the labor force participation rate,?is population aged 15 and over,and is the total population.As emphasized by Lee and Shin(2021),is the capital-output ratio rather than the capitallabor ratio.Here we follow Hall and Jones(1999)to allow the steady st

41、ate of capitaloutput ratio to be independent of the level of TFP.By taking log difference of equation(1),we obtain the following equation:lny=?ln+ln+ln+ln+ln?+?ln (2)where represents the time difference.Equation(2)implies that any determinant of output growth per capita works through six channels:ch

42、anges in(i)physical capital-output ratio,(ii)per capita human capital,(iii)average working hours,(iv)labor participation rate,(v)the share of 15 and above(the share of population aged 15 and over),and(vi)TFP.Lee and Shin(2021)noted that the six channels can be divided into two groups depending on wh

43、ether or not the channel can affect growth permanently.The first group,which can change the growth rate of per capita output permanently,comprises channels(i),(ii),and(iv).The second 5 group,which does not have a permanent growth effect,includes channels,(iii),(iv),and(v).The key difference between

44、the two groups is whether each component can grow without any limit.For example,average hours,the labor participation rate,and the share of 15 and above,which constitute the second group,cannot grow forever.However,since the time interval in the empirical specification is either five or ten years,we

45、 believe that even group 2 channels can affect the growth rate of per capita output in the intermediate run.The share of 15 and above is not the same as the conventional working-age population that is defined as the share of population aged between 15 and 64.Hence,Lee and Shin(2021)further decompose

46、 the share of 15 and above into two parts.Then the final equation for the estimation becomes:lny=?ln+ln+ln+ln+ln?+ln?+?ln (3)Note that ln?is decomposed into ln?and ln?,where the first component is the change in the share of working-age population and the second,the change in the share of 15 and abov

47、e to the working-age population.While these two components are estimated separately,they will be combined and regarded as one channel when we interpret our empirical results later.We collect data from various sources,as summarized in the Appendix.Output,population,capital stock,human capital stock,a

48、verage working hours,and TFP are collected from the Penn World Table(PWT)10.0 update(18 June 2021).Output growth per capita is calculated using the PWTs national-accounts real GDP(RGDPNA).4 The country sample includes 166 countries.The 4 There are five different GDP variables calculated in PWT 10.0.

49、See https:/www.rug.nl/ggdc/productivity/pwt/.Among these,the national-accounts real GDP(RGDPNA)is recommended for cross-country growth regressions.6 sample period is 1960 to 2019 and the growth rate is calculated by using 5-year averages:(Period 1:19601964),(Period 2:19651969),and(Period 12:20152019

50、).5 The old-age dependency and youth dependency ratios are retrieved from the World Banks World Development Indicators.The labor force participation rates are modelled estimates from the statistics database of the International Labour Organization(ILO),ILOStat.3.Empirical Findings In this section,we