全球棕榈油市场报告-46页-WN7.pdf

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1、GLOBAL MARKET REPORTPalm oil prices and sustainability SUSTAINABLE COMMODITIES MARKETPLACE SERIESVivek Voora,Steffany Bermdez,Johanna Joy Farrell,Cristina Larrea,and Erika LunaJune 2023Market OverviewPalm oil production continues to grow to match increasing demand.Palm oil is found in half of all su

2、permarket products,including shampoo,lipstick,body lotion,and packaged foods,in addition to animal feed,and biofuels(Rainforest Action Network,n.d.).Palm oil is a widely attractive ingredient due to its texture,taste,odour,consistency,and shelf life.It is relatively inexpensive,versatile,and the mos

3、t widely produced edible oil,meeting 40%of global demand for vegetable oil on less than 6%of all land dedicated to producing vegetable oils(Ritchie&Roser,2020;World Wildlife Fund WWF,2022).Consequently,its production has increased tenfold since the 1960s in response to the soaring demand for vegetab

4、le oils for food,feed,and fuel(European Palm Oil Alliance,2022).Originally found in West Africa,this tropical equatorial plant is cultivated on large plantations and smallholder plots,with global land coverage equivalent to the size of Brazil(Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil RSPO,2013).Oil palm yi

5、elds are 11 times higher than those of soybeans,10 times higher than sunflower,and seven times higher than canola per hectare(Thomas et al.,2015).Although 85%of global palm oil comes from Indonesia and Malaysia,palm oil is also grown in parts of Africa,South America,and Southeast Asia.Oil palm is a

6、highly productive perennial with a 25-year life cycle(Murphy et al.,2021).Its three main end products have different fatty acids and downstream uses:crude palm oil(CPO)extracted from the oil palm fruit is used primarily as edible oil,palm kernel oil(PKO)derived from the oil palm fruit seed is used f

7、or cosmetics,and palm kernel cakewhat is left after the extraction of the oil from the seedis used for animal feed(Murphy,2018).Fresh fruit bunches(FFBs)are harvested from the oil palm tree by producers and sent to mills for processing within 24 hours.They are sanitized and threshed at these mills,a

8、nd FFB remnants are burned for energy or composted for fertilizer.Oil palm fruits are then digested and mechanically pressed to extract the oil from the pulp,which is composed of 56%to 70%edible oil(Rao,2020).CPO is refined to extract various fractions with distinct melting points.These IISD.org/ssi

9、 2Global Market ReportLIVELIHOODSMore than 7 million smallholders globally cultivate oil palm as their main form of livelihood.Figure 1.Global oil palm production from 2008 to 2019:Oil palm that complies with voluntary sustainability standards(VSSs)reached 17%of total global production in 2019Source

10、s:FAOSTAT,2022;Meier et al.,2021.VSS compliantPotentiallyVSS compliantConventional201920152016201720182014201320122011201020092008050100150200250450300350400Mtdifferent extractions are integrated into various food products,such as margarine,cookies,and creams.The nut of the oil palm fruit is mechani

11、cally opened to access the kernel,which is crushed to expel its oil;this oil is refined and used in personal care and food products(Bhattacharya,2019;Bockisch,1998;Protein Feeds Ltd.,2022).The palm oil sector grew to a market value exceeding USD 50 billion in 2021 and is projected to expand at a com

12、pound annual growth rate(CAGR)of at least 4%,reaching USD 65 billion by 2027(Research and Markets,2022).More than 7 million smallholders globally cultivate oil palm as their main form of livelihood(RSPO,2022b).In Southeast Asia,millions of smallholder farmers have transitioned over the past decades

13、from cultivating rubber to oil palm to supply the more lucrative and diversified palm oil market(Shaw et al.,2018;Tan,2014;van Noordwijk et al.,2017).In the two largest palm oil producers in the world,Indonesia and Malaysia,the palm oil sector directly employs almost 5 million smallholders and worke

14、rs and indirectly employs an additional 6 million people(Russell,2018,2020).The sector is also responsible for an estimated 2.9 million downstream jobs in importing countries(Basiron,2016).Palm oil production has grown to 74.7 million tonnes(Mt)in 2020 from about 42.6 Mt in 2008 from cultivating 29

15、million ha of oil palm,according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO)(FAOSTAT,2022).Palm oil IISD.org/ssi 3Palm Oil Prices and Sustainabilityproduction has grown consistently over the last decade:its CAGR of 5.2%from 2008 to 2019 rose to 5.3%from 2014 to 2019.More than

16、 60%of palm oil production was exported in 2020,providing an important source of foreign exchange revenue for exporting countries.Indonesia,Malaysia,and Guatemala have been the largest exporting countries since 2016,shipping 25.5 Mt,13.5 Mt,and 0.8 Mt,respectively,in 2021.India,China,and the Europea

17、n Union(EU)have consistently been the biggest importers,importing around 8.2 Mt,6.4 Mt,and 6 Mt in 2021,respectively(FAOSTAT,2022).Global palm oil supply and demand have remained steady over the last 5 years.Nevertheless,demand has surged with Russias invasion of Ukraine,the largest sunflower oil pr

18、oducer in the world,restricting its exports.The conflict has triggered a shift in demand for other vegetable oils,such as palm oil,which has motivated farmers to expand palm oil production(International Food Policy Research Institute IFPRI,2022;Yu Leng,2022).The COVID-19 pandemic greatly curbed dema

19、nd for palm oil as government lockdowns affected food services across the globe.Labour shortages have also had an impact on palm oil production.Exports to India and China declined as much as 91%and 17%,respectively,in certain months of 2020(Sarkar et al.,2022).The pandemic especially affected sustai

20、nability efforts in the sector,shifting the focus to maintaining domestic food security and the economic viability of palm oil operations in the face of a 91%increase in the FAO global edible oils price index since June 2021(Root,2022).Smallholder farmers have been especially vulnerable,as they have

21、 limited access to medical services,and serious illness and loss of daily income significantly affect their livelihoods(FAO et al.,2022;Sarkar et al.,2022;Tandon et al.,2020).The war in Ukraine has also slowed the palm oil sectors recovery from the pandemic(IFPRI,2022).While vegetable oils are subst

22、itutable for most purposes,supply chain bottlenecks and shortages,pandemic-related restrictions on farm labour,and higher production costs have profoundly disrupted global markets and caused vegetable oil prices to soar by an average of 30%since February 2022,with food manufacturers seeing a 41%rise

23、 in vegetable oil prices(IFPRI,2022;Rowsell,2022).Ukrainian sunflower oil plant and port closures have reduced its exports by half,placing pressure on alternatives such as palm oil(Jagtap et al.,2022;Laborde,2022).The price of palm oil rose 7%in April 2022 following Indonesias export ban to offset r

24、ising domestic cooking oil prices(U.S.Department of Agriculture,Foreign Agricultural Services,2022).The rapid increase in palm oil demand,exacerbated by the invasion of Ukraine,has dramatically affected global vegetable oil markets,jeopardizing sustainability gains in oil palm operations(Shigetomi e

25、t al.,2020).IISD.org/ssi 4Global Market ReportPalm oil production is increasingly vulnerable to the effects of a changing climate,while the sector is a main driver of climate change through deforestation and land-use change.Besides adjusting to the challenges brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic and

26、the invasion of Ukraine,the palm oil sector will have to continue to adapt to the impacts of climate change,such as rising temperatures,water stress,infestations of pests,diseases,and yield reduction(Michele,2021;RSPO,2022a;Sarkar et al.,2022).For instance,Malaysian oil palm yields are projected to

27、decrease by between 10%and 41%due to changes in average temperatures(Sarkar et al.,2022).The effects of climate change are already being felt on global edible oil production,with direct implications for the palm oil sector.Declines in soybean and rapeseed production due to droughts in Brazil and Can

28、ada,as well as a drop in Malaysian palm oil exports due to Typhoon Rai in 2021,have contributed to rising global vegetable oil prices(Murphy et al.,2021).The sector is further affected by a general lack of climate resilience and concerns about indirect land-use change(ILUC)(i.e.,deforestation,biodiv

29、ersity loss),greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions stemming from crop expansion,and consumer backlash related to biodiversity and habitat loss(Rainforest Action Network,n.d.).Despite being a driver of ILUCwhich contributes to climate changeoil palm productivity(more oil per land area than any other equivalen

30、t vegetable oil crop)and employment benefits(especially for small farmers in developing countries)are significant and may partially offset the sectors contribution to climate change(RSPO,2022c;Sron,2019;Thomas et al.,2015;UN-REDD Programme et al.,2018).Climate adaptation strategies in the palm oil s

31、ector include implementing climate-resilient varieties and sustainable agricultural practices,such as integrated pest management,and using palm processing waste as fertilizer(RSPO,2022c;Thomas et al.,2015).Establishing new plantations on degraded land can also reduce the sectors impact on biodiversi

32、ty and habitat loss.In addition,oil palm is a perennial plant that can be grown in agroforestry settings,offering farmers the potential to cultivate a variety of crops and tree species alongside oil palms to diversify their income and mitigate climate change(Bryce,2022;Murphy et al.,2021;Sarkar et a

33、l.,2022).Growing oil palms in agroforestry systems can also reduce the negative effects of monoculture,including soil erosion and biodiversity loss.Reversing deforestation associated with the palm oil sector represents an important climate mitigation opportunity.Palm oil development in Indonesia and

34、 Malaysia over the past 30 years has led to significant forest loss since the 1990s(Wicke et al.,2011).Commercial agriculture drove an estimated 60%of tropical forest loss worldwide from 2013 to 2019,with 69%of this agro-conversion arising from illegal land-use change(Wolosin,2022).To curb deforesta

35、tion associated with palm oil production,many countries,such as EU member states,the United Kingdom,and the IISD.org/ssi 5Palm Oil Prices and SustainabilityUnited States,are establishing regulations and policies to reduce and prevent illegal logging and deforestation,targeting the companies in their

36、 respective jurisdictions and their value chains.These measures have spurred concerns among developing countries,as they can create barriers to trade and generate additional costs to ensure deforestation-free operations(Sarmiento&Oeschger,2023).Successful measures to prevent deforestation are needed

37、 to help smallholders and palm oil operators conserve forests and restore degraded land.Public and private sector zero-deforestation commitments and a moratorium on expanding large-scale palm oil plantations are expected to lower deforestation by 25%to 28%(Mosnier et al.,2017).Indonesias ban on new

38、palm oil plantations in primary forests and peatlands in 2018 reduced deforestation by 75%from 2016 levels(Centre for International Forestry Research,n.d.;Global Forest Watch,2022).A recent study found signs that deforestation associated with palm oil in Indonesia declined from 2018 to 2020,even tho

39、ugh palm oil production continued to grow in this period,driven by zero-deforestation commitments and associated efforts(Gardner&Rylander,2022).As a result of these public-and private-led measures,GHG emissions from land-use change in the palm oil sector could drop by 13%to 16%between 2010 and 2030(

40、Rainforest Action Network,n.d.;Ritchie&Roser,2020).Furthermore,the United Nations Sustainable Oil Palm Production Initiative promotes the implementation of sustainable practices in the sector and the reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation(REDD+)with action plans that hold p

41、romise to reduce deforestation(FAO,2021;UN-REDD Programme et al.,2018).In addition to forest conservation measures,lowering GHG emissions from oil palm plantations on peatlands,which are important carbon sinks,is also necessary.Draining or clearing peatlands to grow oil palm accelerates soil decompo

42、sition and carbon losses(Carlson et al.,2015).At the mill level,using biogas can displace fossil fuels and lower carbon footprints(De Rosa et al.,2022;Hashim et al.,2018).A case study of Nigerian palm oil found that producing biogas from raw palm oil mill effluent and using it as a substitution for

43、diesel consumption in large-scale and semi-mechanized smallholder mills can reduce global warming by 66%and 44%,respectively(Anyaoha&Zhang,2022).The FAO estimates that the agri-food sector must generate 50%more food by 2050 to maintain food security in the face of climate change.Being the most produ

44、ctive edible oil-bearing crop in the world,oil palm will continue to be instrumental in maintaining global food security and alleviating poverty among smallholder farming communities(FAO,2018;Sron,2019).In fact,Indonesia plans to ramp up production by 125%between 2010 and 2030 to meet projected dema

45、nd(IFPRI,2022).This production increase must ensure the conservation of forests and peatlands.Palm oil also plays an important role in displacing fossil fuels as a feedstock to the production of biodiesel,particularly in Europe.Nevertheless,biofuel mandates and export bans have affected global palm

46、oil supplies and prices due,in large part,to mandated blending in fuel supplies and targeted subsidies to support their production,as was the case in 2008 and IISD.org/ssi 6Global Market Report2012(Glauber et al.,2022;Laborde,2022).EU demand for palm oil biodiesel feedstock is expected to decline as

47、 exporters struggle to meet the required ILUC certification to gain market entry(European Commission,Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural Development,2021).VSSs can help build climate resilience and reduce and prevent deforestation if properly implemented.Efforts are ongoing to move the pal

48、m oil sector toward sustainability to address challenges such as climate change.Implementing VSSs is an effort that began in the palm oil industry more than 30 years ago(Palm Today,2021).Implementing VSSs allows farmers to differentiate themselves in the marketplace from conventional palm oil(Voora

49、et al.,2019).In exchange for adopting more sustainable farming practices,farmers can label their products as VSS compliant or produced in accordance with a VSS.The presence of VSSs in the sector increased dramatically following the establishment of the RSPO in 2004,which aims to provide major palm o

50、il sourcing companies,such as LOral,PepsiCo,and Unilever,with a more sustainable alternative to conventional palm oil that is produced in large-scale palm oil plantations(RSPO,2022c;Unilever,2022).International Sustainability and Carbon Certification(ISCC)is another important scheme that started ope