欧洲各国电动车产业吸引力指数-10页-WN7.pdf

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1、Charging forward:EV Country Attractiveness Index findings Jamie MauleResearch AnalystCornwall Insightj.maulecornwall-June 2023EV Country Attractiveness Index findings|June 20232Cornwall Insight have partnered with law firm Shoosmiths to create the Electric Vehicle Country Attractiveness(EVCA)Index,a

2、 quarterly ranking which charts the relative attractiveness of major European nations for investment in EVs with a particular focus on passenger cars and EV charging infrastructure.We have identified a variety of metrics covering a range of factors(from purchase subsidies to national EV charging tar

3、gets)upon which nations can be ranked on their attractiveness.Since the previous iteration of the EVCA Index,published in March 2023,there have been some changes to the EV landscape.New countries have emerged as leaders in battery electric vehicle(BEV)growth while others have continued to develop th

4、eir charging networks and maintain economic strength at a time when energy prices and inflation both remain elevated across much of Europe.As well as providing an update to existing metrics,the index has also been expanded to include new areas of the EV market.Owing to their status as vital componen

5、ts in the EV transition,further charge-point indicators have been added to the index and will be discussed in depth later.Reflecting these changes and data additions,the index has seen a shake-up in rankings.This is highlighted on the map and table below with 1(darker shading)being the highest and 1

6、3(lighter shading)the lowest and is followed by a discussion of the latest developments in the ranked EV markets.Figure 1 EV Country Attractiveness heatmap:EV Country Attractiveness Index findings|June 20233Figure 2 EV Country Attractiveness index scores and rankings:CountryScoreRankingChangeNorway7

7、.010Netherlands6.62+2France6.533-1Germany6.504-1Spain6.495+1United Kingdom6.26-1Belgium6.17+1Denmark5.88+2Ireland5.79-2Austria5.610-1Italy4.5110Poland4.412+1Portugal4.213-1Explaining the shiftWhile Norway retains its spot atop the index,as its BEV market remains by-far the most developed,many of the

8、 other ranked nations have seen a shift in their positions,though scores remain close.Reflecting continued growth in BEV penetration and its robust and highly developed public charging market,the Netherlands has seen a significant rise in its ranked position,moving from fourth to second.Consequently

9、,despite strong growth for both BEVs and public charge-points,both France and Germany have moved down one position on the index.Spain has also risen up the index,moving from sixth to fifth,as it has been successful in offsetting economic headwinds,incentivising BEV uptake,and deploying increasing nu

10、mbers of public charge-points.While continuing to perform strongly,the UK has fallen one position on the index due to a relative lack of development in public charging infrastructure alongside a drop in BEV sales growth.Now leading the index for BEV growth and performing well on public charging indi

11、cators,Belgium has moved from eighth to seventh on the index.Similarly to Spain,Denmark has seen success by tackling inflation,lowering the cost of electricity,and deploying public charge-points at pace,moving from tenth to eighth as a result.Irelands drop from seventh to ninth reflects its underdev

12、eloped but growing public charge-point market alongside losses to BEV growth amid continued economic difficulties.Despite having well-developed and complimentary BEV and public charge point markets,Austria continues to demonstrate fairly low growth across both markets,seeing it fall from ninth to te

13、nth.The bottom of the table remains largely similar with Poland and Portugal exchanging positions.While both nations continue to hold back in some areas of EV policy,Poland has successfully risen from thirteenth to twelfth due to major increases in growth for both its BEV and public charging markets

14、.EV Country Attractiveness Index findings|June 20234Focus on chargingIn this second iteration of the EVCA Index,we have increased the focus on the growth and maturity of charge-points across the ranked nations with the inclusion of the following metrics:BEVs per publicly accessible charge-point Four

15、-quarterly growth of publicly accessible charge-points Achievement of Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation(AFIR)fleet-based charge-point targetsThese metrics complement existing indicators looking at high-level charge-point targets by giving a more dynamic,on-the-ground,view of progress towar

16、ds key infrastructure development across the ranked nations.It must be acknowledged,however,that public charge-point indicators cannot give a complete view of charging infrastructure in any of the indexed nations as while they will be integral to the development of robust EV markets,the vast majorit

17、y of charging(often around 80%)will be done at home and at the workplace.However,in lieu of available datasets displaying private charging infrastructure across the indexed countries,public charge-point indicators remain the best way to measure the development of EV charging.Charging forwardThe intr

18、oduction of more granular public charge-point metrics has strengthened the index as BEV deployment can be better measured in accordance with the roll-out of wider charging infrastructure.Leading the wayReflecting its position as Europes most developed EV charging market,the Netherlands has scored hi

19、ghly on charge-point indicators.The Netherlands has one publicly accessible charge-point for every 2.7 BEVs compared to the index average of 10 and,consequently,it has exceeded its AFIR power requirement targets by 424%.The Netherlands has long developed its public charging network by fostering syne

20、rgies between government,charge point operators,and institutions.By offering EV Country Attractiveness Index findings|June 20235generous investment deductions to businesses and allowing EV users to apply for free installation of public charge-points where there are none near their home or place of w

21、ork,the Netherlands has been able to build up a network rivalling all others across Europe.Following closely behind the Netherlands,Belgium has 3.7 BEVs for every publicly accessible charge-point,and with charge-point growth on an upward trend(at 117%over the past four quarters)this number appears s

22、et to improve further.This is also largely the result of favourable investment deductions and subsidies for the development of public charging infrastructure for businesses.Alongside this,businesses can deduct 75%of electricity costs incurred by EV charging and in some cities and municipalities,Belg

23、ian businesses and citizens can apply for the free installation of a public charge-point where the closest one is more than 250m from their home or workplace.Charging incentives do not end there,however,as unlike in the Netherlands,Belgians can also apply for private charge-point subsidies of up to

24、1,500.Also scoring high on charge-point indicators is Spain who,despite being a newer entrant to the EV scene,with BEVs only making up 0.4%percent of the total car fleet,is successfully developing a robust market for both vehicles and charging.With an additional 400mn allocated to the MOVES iii sche

25、me bringing the total budget to 1.2bn until year-end 2023 Spain looks poised to accelerate the pace of its EV transition.Interestingly,however,while public charging infrastructure is rapidly growing to service the current BEV fleet,with 131%growth resulting in 4.8 vehicles per charge-point and 380%a

26、chievement of AFIR targets,the market share of BEVs remains low at only 3.8%.This is especially interesting as Spain is among the countries offering the strongest incentives for BEVs,at a maximum value of 7,000.Development on the horizonWhile Norway maintains its lead across the index,it has scored

27、poorly on charge-point indicators,with public charge-point growth at a modest 24.5%,and 25 BEVs for every publicly accessible charge-point currently.Although,this can be partly accounted for as 31%of EV Country Attractiveness Index findings|June 20236public charge-points are fast or ultra-fast and p

28、rivate charge-points are relatively prevalent in Norway.While the UK currently has 11.2 BEVs per publicly accessible charge-point,this number appears set to improve throughout the year.With government support for the EV transition now focussing primarily on the further build-out of charging infrastr

29、ucture,the UK has seen a 70%increase in public charge-points over the past four quarters and numbers have continued to rise throughout Q2 2023.Similarly,Ireland has been expanding its public charging network following the publication of its national charging strategy in early 2023,achieving growth o

30、f 124%.If this momentum can be sustained Ireland also looks posed to improve its ratio of BEVs to public charge-points,which is currently at 18.7.BEV growth across the indexFor the most part,2023 has heralded positive developments for BEV uptake across the index.High growth has been sustained in man

31、y countries and advanced substantially in others as BEVs are getting closer to achieving price parity with traditional internal combustion engine(ICE)vehicles.However,some countries have also experienced some significant reductions in the rate of growth.The most significant increases to BEV sales ha

32、ve come from more nascent markets as Belgium,Poland,and Portugal have all proven successful in further incentivising BEV uptake over the past four quarters.At the other end of the scale while still maintaining positive trends Ireland,Norway and the UK have all experienced significant recent declines

33、 in BEV growth.Owing partly to the newfound success of its Mobility Budget scheme amid the mandatory electrification of its corporate fleets,Belgium now tops the index for BEV growth as over the past four quarters sales have risen from 28,000 to 49,000 vehicles,boasting growth of 76.5%.Close behind

34、are both Poland and Portugal who experienced growth of 72%and 70%,respectively,as subsidies are increasingly making BEVs viable alternatives to ICE vehicles.In all three cases,these represent significant increases since the previous index,with growth 10%and 12%higher for Belgium and Poland,respectiv

35、ely,and a major 35%higher for Portugal.Notably,however,both Poland and Portugal continue to occupy the lowest echelons of the index as while they have succeeded in growing their BEV markets,many uncertainties remain on the policy landscape.Poland were recently chief lobbyists in an attempt to stop t

36、he EU-wide ban on the sale of new ICE vehicles beyond 2035,and Portugals plans for the future of charging infrastructure are uncertain with investment subsidies remaining underdeveloped.With growth falling from 81%to 52%,Ireland faced the greatest fall,although it has continued to show EV Country At

37、tractiveness Index findings|June 20237strong positive growth over the past four quarters.This drop can be interpreted as part of an expected levelling-out of the BEV market as it exits its nascent stages.In the case of the UK,the 15%drop in growth over the past four quarters(from 40%to 25%)can be pa

38、rtly attributed to the change in eligibility for the Plug-in Grant no longer open to passenger cars that are not wheelchair accessible or taxis in June 2022 as,while sales have continued on a positive trend,they have been doing so at lower rates since the grant ended.In Norway,the introduction of ne

39、w tax rates in January 2023 unsettled the entire car market and caused all sales to drop.BEV sales saw the most significant decline as a result of these tax rates because,while taxes simply increased for other models,VAT and weight taxes were introduced to certain BEVs for the first time.Resultingly

40、,Norways BEV growth fell from a steady 21.5%to a mere 7%.At the same time,however,this loss was somewhat offset by a major rise in sales during Q4 2022 as many Norwegians purchased new BEVs prior to the introduction of the new taxes in January 2023.Future outlookIn the next iteration of the EVCA Ind

41、ex,we look to see growth continuing to flourish in both BEV and charging markets across the index.Among the current leaders,it is hoped that as subsidies wane,increased market penetration will allow BEVs to become more cost-competitive with ICE vehicles.It is also imperative that increased focus is

42、given to EV charging,both public and private.For those nations at the bottom of the index,further policy clarity is needed to pave the way for charging infrastructure.While some positive developments have certainly occurred in the space,this has largely been due to the role of private capital and sh

43、ould be further supported by national government commitments.Changes to the macroeconomic landscape of many ranked nations should herald some positive changes in the next iteration of the index.Despite the continued impacts of the energy crisis across much of Europe,many nations have successfully lo

44、wered inflation rates Denmark has roughly halved inflation since the last iteration of the index while others have seen electricity prices fall to more favourable levels Norway now convincingly tops this indicator following a significant EV Country Attractiveness Index findings|June 20238decline in

45、power prices.With these positive trends reflected across much of the index,more favourable macroeconomic conditions could result in increasingly dynamic and fruitful BEV and EV charging markets.Difficulties still remain,however,and the macroeconomic landscape could remain challenging for some ranked

46、 nations,with Poland for example having experienced an increase in inflation alongside electricity prices remaining high.Indicators:A range of indicators,subject to differing weightings,have been utilised in the production of this index.They are listed as follows without regard to importance or weig

47、hted value:Committed government funding National EV sales targets National EV charge-point implementation targets Support for ICE vehicle rollback or ban Available investment subsidies,funds,and tax benefits for EVs and EV charge-points Available purchase subsidies,funds,and tax benefits for EVs and

48、 EV charge-points Ability to conduct business Rate of inflation Share of BEVs in the passenger car stock Four-quarterly growth of BEV sales BEVs per publicly accessible charge-point Four-quarterly growth of publicly accessible charge-points Achievement of Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation(

49、AFIR)fleet-based charge-point targets Wholesale cost of electricity scaled to GDPDisclaimerWhile Cornwall Insight and Shoosmiths consider that the information and opinions given in this publication and all other documentation are sound,all parties must rely upon their own skill and judgement when ma

50、king use of it.Cornwall Insight and Shoosmiths will not assume any liability to anyone for any loss or damage arising out of the provision of this publication howsoever caused.The publication makes use of information gathered from a variety of sources in the public domain and from confidential resea