ITIF-创新放大器：在温室气体减排方面取得更多成功（英）-2023-WN7.pdf

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1、 itif.org Innovation Amplifiers:Getting More Bang for the Buck on GHG Reductions ED RIGHTOR|JULY 2023 The pace of GHG reductions needs to greatly accelerate.Recent investments are a great start but are not sufficient.We need to amplify the current investments to achieve clean energy as the norm and

2、improve competitiveness.KEY TAKEAWAYS The pace of global GHG reductions is far from whats needed to stabilize the climate.Emissions are going up in contrast to projections and commitments that theyd be going down.The tax incentives in the recent IRA legislation will expand clean energy generation,di

3、stribution,and use but are insufficient to drive the RD&D needed to decrease the costs of low-carbon technologies,support infrastructure,and implement solutions.For the current portfolio of investments,DOE and other agencies need to capture significantly more value from the resources they commit by

4、adopting knowledge and application amplifiers with goal-directed research.DOE should develop high leverage capabilities(e.g.,electrochemistry,composites,energy storage);pursue science and engineering to address crosscutting constraints;and rally diverse collaborator networks focused on audacious goa

5、ls.DOE also should encourage spillovers into adjacent or unseen applications and markets;increase outreach and transparency to engage ecosystems of collaborators;and use the investments in hydrogen and CCUS hubs to utilize a range of amplifiers.INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|JULY 2023

6、PAGE 2 CONTENTS Key Takeaways.1 Executive Summary.2 Introduction.3 What Is an Amplifier?.4 Improved Clarity and Fewer Constraints.4 Knowledge Spillovers.5 Application Spillovers.5 Clear Solution Paths.5 Strategic Use of Resources.6 Intersectional Thinking.6 Support Networks.6 Goal-Directed Research.

7、7 How Can We Foster Amplifiers?.7 How Are DOE,DOD,and Other Agencies Using Amplifiers?.9 How Could Amplifiers Maximize the Impact of Recent Funding?.11 Conclusions and Recommendations.13 Endnotes.15 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The world is behind the curve in addressing climate change.We need to amplify the i

8、mpact of global greenhouse gas(GHG)reduction initiatives.Despite recent historic United States investments to spur clean energy technologies,we simply cant reduce GHGs fast enough with the limited resources committed globallyand additional massive funding is unlikely.We need bigger and faster GHG re

9、ductions from the funds already committed.But how?Pursuing amplifiers is an underutilized approach that could cascade GHG reductions in multiple areas simultaneously.Amplifiers leverage resources and knowledge to greatly increase impact,remove constraints,or expand applications.They spur creative th

10、inking that leads to innovative solutions to tough problems.Amplifiers such as spillovers increase the impact of innovations.For example,lithium-ion batteries developed for small consumer electronics are making an even larger impact powering electric vehicles and stationary batteries.Looking ahead,i

11、nnovations in core capabilities such as electrochemistry could amplify GHG reductions in batteries,hydrogen fuel cells,and water electrolyzers,and converting carbon dioxide(CO2)into value-added products.Like increasing the power of amplifiers at a concert,we need to“crank it up”in terms of GHG reduc

12、tions.The Department of Energy(DOE)and research partners can get more bang for the buck from recent investments by pursuing amplifiers in“Energy Earthshots.”1 DOE should INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|JULY 2023 PAGE 3 engage diverse innovator networks across multiple partners to develo

13、p and apply expertise with high leverage potential(e.g.,electrochemistry,composite materials,separations,energy storage).Making big GHG reductions fast is vital.Using amplifiers to deliver those bigger reductions faster will be crucial to achieving audacious GHG reduction and sustainability goals.IN

14、TRODUCTION Society is way behind the pace when it comes to GHG reductions needed to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.2 Recent investments provide a start for the transformation required but are far from the level currently needed.One way to achieve far greater impact from the limited resour

15、ces availableget“more bang for the buck”is by identifying and pursuing amplifiers to increase leverage and market pull.The scale of the transformation needed across energy systems,manufacturing,buildings,transportation,supply chains,and the way that people use energy is colossal.The resources commit

16、ted to this radical change in a very compressed time window are limited considering the scale of the change needed.This is a global problem,and the level of global investment needed will be enormous,but the consequences of not making the transformation are unthinkable.Estimates of the global investm

17、ent needed are above$130 trillion through 2050.3 Between 2021 and 2025,$2.6 trillion per year is neededand this increases beyond 2025 to$4.5 trillion/year.By comparison,the$35 billion authorized for clean energy technology is merely a blip.4 And prospects for additional funding in the next few years

18、 are dim,so making the most of the limited funds is vital.Getting more bang for the buck matters,as the innovations needed to enable the technological change are enormous and low-carbon technologies need to get to price and performance parity with incumbent solutions fast.6 This will require large a

19、nd durable research,development,and demonstration(RD&D)investments as adoption faces displacing well-entrenched,less-expensive technologies and processes.Sectors such as industry,aviation,and marine are very heterogeneous,while integration(e.g.,complex linkages between inputs and outputs)and risks f

20、or implementation are high.The needs for innovation to achieve net-zero emissions are profound.Nearly half the technologies needed to reach net zero by 2050 are still in prototype or demonstration stage.5 Sectors such as industry,aviation,and marine are even more dependent on emergent technologies.A

21、ccelerated adoption will require demonstrations in multiple configurations,applications,and regional contexts,so innovation in implementation is important too.The low-carbon approaches for transitioning energy use such as renewable hydrogen,converting CO2 into useful products,electrifying manufactur

22、ing processes,and mitigating remaining emissions from hard-to-abate processes by carbon capture utilization and storage(CCUS)are significantly more expensive than incumbent solutions.That price gap will lead to slow adoption,which means its essential to reach price parity while delivering the same p

23、erformance.6 Theres a critical need to amplify our efforts given limited resources,a short time window,and myriad adoption challenges.INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|JULY 2023 PAGE 4 This report explores how to identify and pursue amplifiers to accelerate GHG reductions,highlighting pol

24、icy enablers and ways agencies can expand the impact of funds provided by the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law(BIL).WHAT IS AN AMPLIFIER?Amplifiers are approaches to program management that leverage resources and knowledge to greatly increase the impact of inputs,remove

25、constraints,or expand a range of applications.In the context of GHG reductions,an amplifier greatly expands the magnitude of emissions reductions for the resources available.Figure 1 shows the several categories of amplifiers,followed by illustrative examples for each.But as there are many ways ampl

26、ifiers can be creatively applied,this list is not meant to be exhaustive.Figure 1:Categories of amplifiers Improved Clarity and Fewer Constraints There are multiple ways in which removal of constraints(capital,risk,technical issues,etc.)and improved clarity can yield amplified impact.Operation Warp

27、Speed(OWS)in the United States was successful in removing RD&D and regulatory risk to accelerate COVID-19 vaccine development.7 RD&D often has associated risks regarding whether offerings will meet the needs of customers and if theyll purchase the product developed.The government largely eliminated

28、those risks by guaranteeing the purchase of the vaccines and providing financing regardless of regulatory approval.Normal regulatory processes for medical products can take yearsa cloud of Goal-Directed ResearchImproved Clarity,Fewer ConstraintsKnowledge SpilloversClear Solution PathwaysStrategic Re

29、sourcesIntersectional ThinkingSupport NetworksINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|JULY 2023 PAGE 5 uncertainty for product developers approval timing and application constraints.The government minimized these risks by fast-tracking approval for the vaccines and aided contracting and distrib

30、ution,further minimizing risks.Multiple agencies and private sector companies partnered to speed development and deployment while effectively addressing hurdles.The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency(DARPA)played an early role by seeing the potential for the mRNA technology for vaccines,suppo

31、rting development,building networks of researchers,and lowering technical risksstarting eight years before the pandemic.8 DARPA has a history of pioneering innovations that have been picked up by markets.Examples include the Internet,miniaturized global positioning system(GPS)devices,unmanned aerial

32、 vehicles(drones),and flat screen displays.9 Knowledge Spillovers Spillovers increase the rate of learning and application in areas that were not the original target of innovation activity.10 Knowledge spillovers incorporate new principles into other applications increasing the rate of innovation in

33、 the new area.One example,as noted is the adoption of semiconductor manufacturing processes and leveraged silicon production with photovoltaic(PV)cells.This contributed to the dominance of PVs(over competing thin films)after 2000 with polysilicon costs dropping to 10 percent that of the 1975 level.9

34、 Another aspect of these spillovers occurs when researchers pursue innovations in unfamiliar fields in which they can develop new insights.These interlopers can be“cross-pollinators”that help develop innovative ideas.11 The diversity in thinking at the intersection of fields,culture,and experiences

35、can yield unique perspectives.For example,the emergency room(ER)staff at a hospital who were seeking innovative,nontraditional methods to minimize mistakes observed car racing pit crews under pressurenot ERs at other hospitals.12 Application Spillovers Application spillovers involve a technology dev

36、eloped for one application being picked up by another application or adjacent market.For example,gas turbines originally developed and applied for jet engines were later adapted for natural gas turbines.13 Spillovers can share a common scientific base,manufacturing techniques,and operation skills.Th

37、e multitude of application spillovers from the NASA moonshots are prime examples.14 The increased impacts and accelerated speed from spillovers were also important for the rapid preparation of materials for World War II,where they enabled collaboration to turn failures into successes in other applic

38、ations and accelerated progress in the face of scarce inputs.15 Clear Solution Paths Amplifiers can also reveal new knowledge that allows for a clearer path to solutions.The development of vaccines by OWS enabled the mapping of supply chains for the rapid manufacture,transportation,and deployment of

39、 vaccines.This mapping was a key part of the rapid response to the pandemic,as it identified vulnerabilities and was used along with manufacturing forecasting and investing to close gaps before they arose.7 This also uncovered that Pfizer knew its supply chain,as did Sanofi,but knowledge of the enti

40、re supply chain needed for manufacture and distribution was unknown.This is an example of finding clarity on how to utilize a complex production and delivery process more effectively from end to end.INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|JULY 2023 PAGE 6 There are also examples wherein new ins

41、ights can come from more clearly seeing how to orchestrate solutions in complex,nonlinear,or multivariate systems.Analyses of patents associated with complex areas show the disproportionate benefits of science uncovering previously unrecognized relationships.Science can help inventors both find thei

42、r way to unfamiliar places and convince others that what they found is valuable.16 Strategic Use of Resources Greater impact is realized when the value is leveraged across multiple organizations.For example,a company with the rights to build roads,bridges,or communications networks can operate more

43、efficiently in moving its goods or information.This impact,however,can be far greater if the technology is shared among multiple companies connecting more producers,sellers,and end consumers.In another example,systems engineering challenges were not readily divisible during technology development as

44、sociated with WWII,so the development of radar was concentrated at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.15 Conversely,parallel efforts were favored for fission and the development of penicillin and medicines to address malaria.Intersectional Thinking Frans Johannsen,in The Medici Effect,explain

45、ed that increased creativity comes when talented people with different backgrounds and disciplines collaborate,yielding step-change improvements.11 Creativity will flourish when people with diverse background,cultures,educations,and values collaborate.At these intersections of thinking,new approache

46、s and breakthroughs can occur.People outside a certain field of study dont have the same assumptions or are able to challenge those already present,and ideas can be combined in new ways.DARPA promotes this intersectionality in the teams they build and interactions they spur among networks.The Advanc

47、ed Research Projects Agency-Energy(ARPA-E)promotes it at their innovation summits where technology developers from all over the globe working on diverse problems have an opportunity to interact.7 Successes from the ARPA-E program include wide-band gap semiconductors and mobile detection for methane

48、leak detection among the 135 companies,more than 1,000 patents,and over 300 licenses resulting from supported programs.17 Support Networks Support networks enable the rapid exchange of knowledge and spur creativity between researchers in overlapping disciplines,encouraging cross-fertilization and in

49、novation.When these networks are focused on a common goal,progress can be accelerated by the community of collaborators that expand expertise and drive durable progress.For example,DARPA is known for building strong networks of collaborators that focus on a goal,with the networks tapping a broad ran

50、ge of expertise and disciplines.7 The networks can range from academia to emerging technology firms that lack experience as defense contractors.In another example,the United States government spurred the development of public-private networks leading to numerous PV inventions/innovations in the 1970