PitchBook-2023年二季度美国PE细分（英）-2023-WN7.pdf

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1、Sponsored byUSPE BreakdownQ220232ContentsPitchBook Data,Inc.John Gabbert Founder,CEONizar Tarhuni Vice President,Institutional Research and EditorialDylan Cox,CFA Head of Private Markets ResearchInstitutional Research GroupAnalysisSponsored byQ2 2023 US PE BREAKDOWNTim Clarke Lead Analyst,Private EG

2、arrett Hinds Senior Analyst,Private EJinny Choi Analyst,Private EKyle Walters Associate Analyst,Private EDataAlyssa Williams Senior Data APublishingReport designed by Drew Sanders,Julia Midkiff,and Chloe LadwigPublished on July 11,2023Click here for PitchBooks report methodologies.Executive summary:

3、Halfway Home4A word from Stout6Deals8A word from West Monroe19Deal valuation and debt metrics22Deals by size and sector23Spotlight:PE Exit Timelines and the Impending Maturity Wall 25Exits27Fundraising and performance32Methodology change update:In connection with our previously communicated methodol

4、ogy change,we will discontinue estimating future restatements in deal value.Since adopting our new methodology of including announced deals in addition to completed deals,the restatement of deal value has diminished greatly and as such estimates based on historic activity are no longer warranted.Thi

5、s change will apply to deal value only.We will continue to estimate expected revisions in deal count,as that has remained fairly consistent with prior observed activity.This change will apply to this and all future PE-and M&A-related reports and harmonizes with the methodology already in use for VC-

6、related reports.Rebecca Springer,Ph.D.Lead Analyst,HStout is committed to developing and nurturing productive,long-term relationships with leading private equity firms in the U.S.and around the world.We offer deep technical expertise across fund formation,operation,and wind down,and throughout the p

7、ortfolio company lifecycle,from investment to exit.As one of the fastest growing advisory firms in the U.S.,our team offers an integrated service approach that includes robust capabilities in the areas of M&A,Transaction Advisory,Valuation Advisory,Accounting&Reporting Advisory,and Business Transfor

8、mation.Get to know Stout and let us relentlessly deliver for you.Stout is a global investment bank and advisory firm specializing in corporate finance,accounting and transaction advisory,valuation,financial disputes,claims,and investigations.We serve a range of clients,from public corporations to pr

9、ivately held companies in numerous industries.Our clients and their advisors rely on our premier expertise,deep industry knowledge,and unparalleled responsiveness on complex matters.Serving the unique needs of the private equity communityFor more information,please visit 4Q2 2023 US PE BREAKDOWNSpon

10、sored byEXECUTIVE SUMMARY:HALFWAY HOMEEXECUTIVE SUMMARYHalfway homeThe first half of 2023 has played out in similar fashion to the back half of 2022 for US PE on many fronts.The industry continues to battle through a stubbornly high interest-rate environment that makes the cost of borrowing and serv

11、icing floating-rate debt prohibitively expensive for deals that would otherwise get done.Deployment remains down by 49.2%from the quarterly peak reached in Q4 2021,and realizations are down by 67.6%from the Q2 2021 peak.Fund performance,while still handily ahead of most asset classes and strategies

12、on a 10-year basis,has fallen to the middle of the pack on a one-year horizon basis.As a result,fundraising continues to be more difficult and is tracking 15%-25%below 2022s first half,although other strategies such as venture and real assets have fallen more precipitously.The seminal event so far t

13、his year,of course,was the Silicon Valley Bank failure and the mini-bank crisis that followed.PE escaped relatively unscathed,with four large take-privates announced in the two weeks surrounding that event.Indirectly,however,it created a more risk-averse environment among lenders and kept the lid on

14、 leverage ratios.The average share of debt to enterprise value on LBO deals has fallen to 43.3%so far in 2023,a lockstep change from 2022s average of 50.8%and the five-year average of 52.2%.Meanwhile the yield-to-maturity on new-issue leverage loan deals backing LBOs averaged 9.47%in Q2,little chang

15、ed from nine months ago.Also on the worry list is the continued anemic level of exit activity.The number of exits dropped by another 22.2%from Q1 and is now consistently below pre-COVID levels.Investments have outnumbered exits by three-to-one,even after excluding add-ons,and this imbalance needs to

16、 be cured to avoid a pile up further down the road when big funds face big maturity dates.There were some green shoots as the quarter closed with two large PE exits via M&A(Adenza for$10.5 billion and Apptio for$4.6 billion)and two via public listings(the$2.9 billion IPO of Savers Value Village and

17、the$1.2 billion IPO of Kodak Gas Services).The M&A exits were especially encouraging as they validate PEs furious“build-and-buy”playbook,which pushes platforms to reach critical mass quickly in order to attract much larger suitors,in this case Nasdaq and IBM.The multiples paid were also encouraging,

18、to say the least,estimated at 20.2x TTM revenue for Adenza and 12.5x for Apptio.While many of 2022s trends carried into 2023,there are some notable differences.Public markets have rebounded:As of June 30,the S&P 500 was up by 17.6%on a one-year basis,in stark contrast to the 18.1%one-year negative r

19、eturn just six months prior.The negative denominator effect is not as pronounced,and allocators have some breathing room to allocate more to PE or stay the course.Another noteworthy change is that big banks have slowly waded back into the leveraged buyout(LBO)market.After taking an eight-month sabba

20、tical on making any new commitments to large take-privates,a trickle of new leveraged loan deals was announced in February and picked up steam in March.Private credit funds continued to lend all along and were the main reason the LBO market and PE deal flow,in general,did not collapse coming out of

21、the steepest rate hikes in more than 40 years.Instead,the industry has maintained pre-COVID-19 levels of deal activity,which used to be considered strong years before the 2020 to 2021 frenzy set the bar impossibly high.We suspect the second half of 2023 will provide its own twists and turns and will

22、 render a verdict as to whether higher interest rates are here to stay or the industrys journey to a friendlier LBO backdrop is finally complete.5Q2 2023 US PE BREAKDOWNSponsored byEXECUTIVE SUMMARY:HALFWAY HOME4%5%6%7%8%9%10%0100200300400500600Q3Spread(bps)over base rateSpreadYield20172016201820192

23、020202120222023Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2New issue spread and yield-to-maturity on debt-backing LBO deals Source:PitchBook|LCD Geography:US*Note:As of June 27,2023.Lack of observations in Q4 2022 to provide meaningful averages.$0$100$200$300$400$500$600$700$800$900$1,0002

24、013201420152016201720182019202020212022*202220212020201920182017201620152014Cumulative overhangOverhang by vintageUS PE dry powder($B)by vintageSource:PitchBook Geography:US*As of December 31,20226Q2 2023 US PE BREAKDOWNSponsored byA WORD FROM STOUTA WORD FROM STOUTThe state of dealmaking in a down

25、market1.Markets remain uneasy for a multitude of factors.Which factors are you watching most closely,and why?Ted:It has been a difficult year for private equity dealmaking.The Fed rate cycle continues to dominate the macro landscape.Rising rates,inflation,and uncertainty have negatively impacted M&A

26、 conditions.Many industries have seen rapid shifts in valuation,portfolio company performance has slowed,and financing costs have increased.That said,the Fed has followed a reasonably predictable and well-communicated path,so there have been few surprises,and firms have adjusted expectations accordi

27、ngly.Notably,while geopolitical events always impact markets,the war in Europe and the pandemic are no longer having a significant effect on the appetite for dealmakingWe started to see some green shoots of increased M&A market activity in late Q1,but they were mostly quashed by the liquidity crisis

28、 in US regional banks,which culminated in the failure of SVB and others.This summer has seen a similar mini spike in new launches,as some sellers try to get transactions done by years end.Overall,most of our clients are seeing deal flow down 25%to 40%YoY,resulting in far fewer opportunities to deplo

29、y capital.Today,we are mostly focused on the long process of buyers and sellers realigning on value.There is no real catalyst other than time to truly reignite deal activity.The exact timing remains difficult to predict.For much of the last year,we have been hearing the return of active market condi

30、tions is three to four months out.The pressure for private equity funds to deploy capital is intense and building,so we anticipate a significant spike in activity when markets return to something like what we saw in early 2021 after the pandemic-driven slowdown.2.Sponsor M&A activity has been quiet

31、this year,and competition for attractive assets remains significant.Where are you seeing pockets of activity?Ted:Overall,sponsor-backed deal flow in the middle market is materially down as market volatility makes aligning buyer and seller valuation expectations more difficult.As a result,many sponso

32、rs are not even considering selling portfolio companies until 2024.However,the drivers of activity in the lower middle market(particularly for founder/family-owned businesses)are less dependent on financing,cycle,and valuation than other areas.Stout has been very active with platform and add-on deal

33、s under$25 million of EBITDA backed by founders,and we continue to be busy pitching and executing in this space.Many sponsors have been playing down the market to take advantage of this flow,especially in situations wherein continued consolidation opportunities allow further deployment of capital.Ce

34、rtain sectors are healthier than others.We see activity in services broadly,healthcare services(especially non-reimbursement risk plays),and less cyclical Industrials.Meanwhile,consumer/retail has been weaker overall,and growth tech has been challenging.However,our tech bankers are busy working on o

35、ld-line industry tech enablement,which remains a huge opportunity.As a Managing Director in the Financial Sponsors Group at Stout,Ted covers a robust network of premier middle-market private equity clients.Throughout his 12-plus years in investment banking,he has executed a broad range of M&A engage

36、ments and diverse capital markets transactions in the public equity,private equity,and leveraged finance markets.As Head of Private Equity Business Development at Stout,Bartley is leading teams in cultivating extensive relationships across the private equity market and with senior executives in tech

37、nology,consumer,industrials,healthcare,energy infrastructure,and financial services.He has over 20 years of experience working with private equity sponsors,venture capital firms,investment managers,hedge fund managers,family offices,credit investors,business development companies,and lenders.Ted Spe

38、yerManaging Director-Investment BankingStoutBartley ODwyerManaging Director-Private Equity Business DevelopmentStout7Q2 2023 US PE BREAKDOWNSponsored byA WORD FROM STOUT3.How can sponsors play this market?Ted:Firms are more actively considering minority and structured deals through their main funds

39、or dedicated pools of capital.Sellers,particularly those attempting to fundraise in a tough environment,are also more open to these transactions,as they can provide a valuation mark for a current portfolio company and some return of capital.Continuation funds remain popular as a way to record a valu

40、ation mark while holding an asset longer through a cycle.In this environment of limited supply,competition for quality assets that hit the market is fierce.We are seeing numerous attempts to preempt processes,and speed to close is a realadvantage.4.With deal flow down,how are investment professional

41、s and operating teams spending their time?Bartley:Many are taking this slowdown as an opportunity to get the house in order at portfolio companies across the obvious pillars of people,process,and technology.This includes downsizing and businesses not replacing headcount lost through the ordinary cou

42、rse of business attrition.Additionally,the role of the operating partner has changed.Previously,the operating partner was a C-suite executive ready to parachute in,but more and more(even with middle-market and lower-middle-market sponsors),there is a greater emphasis on deep functional skills(go-to-

43、market,finance,and supply chain,for example)and a direct remit to drive EBITDA.Firms that shifted to this model will likely fare better through this slowdown.Sponsors with platforms that have been highly acquisitive over the past 24 months are slowing the add-on pace and are taking a deeper look at

44、back-end integration and efficiencies,with a focus on driving more top-of-funnel demand and sales efficiencies so that they are poised for growth when the economy improves.Companies are also focusing on fixing processes within the cash conversion cycle,such as order-to-cash and procure-to-pay,as wel

45、l as faster invoicing,collections,and cash management.Healthy portfolio companies are upgrading key parts of the application stack like enterprise resource planning(ERP)and enterprise performance management(EPM)solutions.5.How are valuation processes and terms and conditions evolving in the current

46、milieu?How do they vary on the sell side versus the buy side?Ted:In the current environment of diminished deal flow,sponsors have been aggressive on deals for quality assets.We have seen more attempts to preempt sell-side processes in the past year,and the trend is continuing.Several clients have fo

47、und it difficult to compete if they are not on a highly accelerated timetable.This dynamic has several implications for launching sale processes.For example,as speed is paramount,we have seen more prevalent equity backstops and/or over-equitizing for sponsors,especially for the A/A+assets.There has

48、also been more caution around broad marketing launches.We have seen some sellers speaking to a small subset of buyers to see if a preemptive bid is possible,and then waiting for better market conditions if there isnt enough interest.Getting an advance view on leverage before launching a process is i

49、ncreasingly important from the sell-side perspective.As available leverage levels have dropped and cost of debt has risen,valuation has come down modestly for assets that are more sponsor oriented.We have seen less of an impact in strategic-focused deals.Another continued trend is the increasing use

50、 of buy-side advisors with material fees in situations wherein banks bring real access and origination on deals.Most of our middle-market clients now recognize the importance of rewarding advisory partners for differentiated advice and idea flow.8Q2 2023 US PE BREAKDOWNSponsored byDEALSDeals$423.4$5