亚开行-日本氢能社会转型的技术前瞻——基于GTAP-E-Power模型的探讨（英）-2023-WN7.pdf

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1、 ADBI Working Paper Series TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR HYDROGEN SOCIETY TRANSITION IN JAPAN:APPROACH OF GTAP-E-POWER MODEL Michael C.Huang,Yoko Iwaki,and Ming-Huan Liou No.1403 July 2023 Asian Development Bank Institute The Working Paper series is a continuation of the formerly named Discussion Paper s

2、eries;the numbering of the papers continued without interruption or change.ADBIs working papers reflect initial ideas on a topic and are posted online for discussion.Some working papers may develop into other forms of publication.Suggested citation:Huang,M.C.,Y.Iwaki,and M.-H.Liou.2023.Technology Fo

3、resight for Hydrogen Society Transition in Japan:Approach of GTAP-E-Power Model.ADBI Working Paper 1403.Tokyo:Asian Development Bank Institute.Available:https:/doi.org/10.56506/BYKL5188 Please contact the authors for information about this paper.Email:michael-huangspf.or.jp Michael C.Huang is a Seni

4、or Research Fellow at the Ocean Policy Research Institute,the Sasakawa Peace Foundation and a Visiting Researcher at SciREX Center,National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies(GRIPS).Yoko Iwaki is a Research Fellow at GRIPS Alliance.Ming-Huan Liou is Director of the Emerging Market Study Center,TI

5、ER.The views expressed in this paper are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of ADBI,ADB,its Board of Directors,or the governments they represent.ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any con

6、sequences of their use.Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.Discussion papers are subject to formal revision and correction before they are finalized and considered published.Asian Development Bank Institute Kasumigaseki Building,8th Floor 3-2-5 Kasumigaseki,Chi

7、yoda-ku Tokyo 100-6008,Japan Tel:+81-3-3593-5500 Fax:+81-3-3593-5571 URL:www.adbi.org E-mail:infoadbi.org 2023 Asian Development Bank Institute ADBI Working Paper 1403 M.C.Huang et al.Abstract With its portable,storable,and zero-emission features,hydrogen energy is regarded as one of the most promis

8、ing alternative energies for the next generation.Along with developing hydrogen technology applications,Japans pilot experiments have demonstrated the feasibility of a hydrogen society.However,empirical studies are still scarce and limited to energy efficiency analysis or cost-benefit analysis,and l

9、ack inclusive discussion contributing to the evidence-based approach targeting policy implementation of the hydrogen roadmap.The research aims to provide a quantitative impact assessment of Japans hydrogen society by applying the GTAP-E-Power model with the technology foresight parameters of 2025203

10、5 sourced from the SciREX Policy Intelligence Assistance System Economic Simulator(SPIAS-e)to investigate the change in output,price,and defragmentation of supply chains of energy sectors,as well as the emission of carbon dioxide from domestic and foreign firms.In the scenario of transitioning the e

11、xisting fossil power of coal,natural gas,crude oil,and other renewable energies including solar and wind power,the simulation results demonstrated that the CO2 emission by domestic firms in the transportation and service sectors could be reduced by 3.3%and 2.3%,respectively,for power generation sect

12、ors,a total equivalent to 26.6 million tons thanks to the improvement in energy efficiency.In comparison,the export of transport equipment and energy-intensive sectors increased by 6.5%and 5.6%,respectively.Moreover,the welfare analysis of equivalent variations of Japans hydrogen society showed an i

13、ncrease of$75,696 million and a 1.3%growth in GDP.Keywords:hydrogen society,CO2 emission,SPIAS-e,net-zero society,GTAP-E-Power JEL Classification:C68,R11,O13,O14,Q47 ADBI Working Paper 1403 M.C.Huang et al.Contents 1.INTRODUCTION.1 1.1 Development of Hydrogen Technology.1 1.2 Japans Roadmap for Hydr

14、ogen Society.2 1.3 Rephrasing the Hydrogen Strategy under the Global Trend of Decarbonization.2 1.4 Research Question and Structure.3 2.LITERATURE REVIEW.4 2.1 R&D Measures for Hydrogen Society Roadmap.4 2.2 Applicable Sectors for Hydrogen Society.5 2.3 Integrated Power System in the Case of Norway.

15、5 2.4 The Potential of Hydrogen Society for Decarbonization.6 3.METHODOLOGY.8 3.1 The Capture of Technological Improvement.8 3.2 GTAP-E-Power Model.8 4.SCENARIO.9 4.1 Technological Improvement.9 4.2 Hydrogen Society Policy Shock.10 5.SIMULATION RESULTS.11 5.1 Change of Output and Price.11 5.2 Extern

16、al Trades and Supply Chain.12 5.3 Carbon Dioxide Emission.14 5.4 Change in Employment.15 5.5 Welfare Analysis and GDP.16 6.CONCLUSIONS.17 6.1 Policy Implications.17 6.2 Research Limitation.18 6.3 Future Prospects.18 REFERENCES.19 ADBI Working Paper 1403 M.C.Huang et al.1 1.INTRODUCTION Japan,a highl

17、y developed country with a critical shortage of hydrocarbon resources,sees multiple values in the use of hydrogen,including energy security,industrial competitiveness,and carbon emission reductions.In 2017,Japan was the first country to adopt a hydrogen framework with its Basic Hydrogen Strategy(MET

18、I 2020).The framework promotes an end-use approach that focuses on electricity,transportation,housing,heavy industry,and refining.Meanwhile,being a leader in fuel cell technology,particularly fuel cell vehicles(FCVs),manufacturing firms from the related fields are seeking to export this technology t

19、o the rest of the world.The main issue is to experiment with different options for sourcing hydrogen to adjust its industrial and energy policy for a society that utilizes the development of hydrogen energy.1.1 Development of Hydrogen Technology To achieve the medium-and long-term goals in the Basic

20、 Strategy,and to realize the“hydrogen society”that the Japanese have set out,the government has consistently allocated a budget of 98.9 billion yen(approx.$693 million)in FY2022 for research and development(R&D)related to fuel cells and water electrolyzer technology(METI 2021).To effectively reduce

21、the risk and provide an incentive to encourage private firms towards this emerging field,public-private co-investment in R&D and pilot projects is essential to create synergy(Arque-Castells and Spulber 2022).The core concern is about the mobility sector applying hydrogen technologies,such as“power t

22、o gas,”which is envisioned as a resolution to renewable power intermittency for stimulating domestic hydrogen production with co-benefits.In the market application,hydrogen energy generation has matured with several methods categorized in the table below in different colors(Table 1.1).Thanks to its

23、feature of storable energy,the transition to a hydrogen society could be referred to as an additional accessory investment in the existing power generation sources.It is also foreseen that it will decrease hydrogen energy generation costs if the demands and R&D continue to increase(Glenk and Reichel

24、stein 2022;Hodges et al.2022).Table 1.1:Hydrogen Categories by Generation Method Gray hydrogen Reflects fossil fuels,natural gas,and water vapor to produce H2 and CO2 through a“steam reforming”process;large amounts of CO2 are emitted into the atmosphere.Blue hydrogen Reflects fossil fuels,natural ga

25、s,and steam to produce H2 and CO2;zero emissions,including capture of produced CO2 and geological storage(CCS).Green hydrogen Produced through electrolysis of H2O to H2 and O2 from source electricity generated by renewable energy;zero CO2 emissions.Turquoise hydrogen Produced a hydrocarbon feedstock

26、,such as methane(CH4)in natural gas,as the source of hydrogen atoms;the high-temperature reactor could use green energy.Yellow hydrogen Electrolysis of H2O to produce H2 and O2 using electricity from nuclear power generation;zero CO2 emissions but produces nuclear waste.Brown hydrogen Produced by ga

27、sification,where carbons materials are heated into a gas.Similar to black hydrogen.White hydrogen H2 produced as a byproduct in the production of other products(e.g.,steelmaking);production volume is uncontrollable.Source:The authors.ADBI Working Paper 1403 M.C.Huang et al.2 1.2 Japans Roadmap for H

28、ydrogen Society The Basic Hydrogen Strategy was first announced in 2017 by the Ministry of Economy,Trade and Industry(METI)to set up the hydrogen roadmap with ambitions to establish an integrated hydrogen supply chain domestically and internationally by 2030,including production,transportation,stora

29、ge,and consumption from upper to down stream (METI 2017).Increasing renewable energy generation capacity is vital to the governments net-zero plan.However,because renewable energy is intermittent,it cannot balance supply and demand on the power grid.In addition,the increase in renewable energy gener

30、ation capacity may result in more frequent curtailments (i.e.,reductions in renewable energy generation to balance energy supply and demand or due to transmission line constraints)for future renewable energy power plant operators for an optimal energy mix(Huang and Kim 2021).The ambitions were mostl

31、y reconfirmed with the long-term strategy under the Paris Agreement and the Green Growth Strategy(METI 2021)towards 2050 Carbon Neutrality to reduce carbon dioxide emissions substantially.Moreover,the Japanese government has recognized the need for new or modernized regulations on hydrogen and ammon

32、ia,and in fact,the Sixth Basic Energy Plan(METI 2021)specifies the importance of Japan playing a leading role in international rulemaking.Despite Japanese companies taking a pioneering role in driving innovation in the field of hydrogen technology with significant government funding,Japans regulator

33、y and rulemaking activities have been comparatively limited.However,the success of the next phase of the hydrogen revolution depends on the establishment of a well-coordinated and consistent regulatory framework.Given Japans status as an early adopter of hydrogen technology and a major future import

34、er of pure hydrogen,the development of the hydrogen society still requires substantial effort in terms of implementation and popularity.To interpret the transition to a hydrogen society,simply analyzing the advancement of technology from an engineering perspective is insufficient.There are pilot hyd

35、rogen cities equipped with hydrogen energy pipelines,such as in Kitakyushu City(Fuel Cells Bulletin 2011)and in the Harumi area of Tokyo Metropolis(Fuel Cells Works 2019);the broader scope of a sectoral approach will be more beneficial in illustrating the hopeful picture of realizing a hydrogen soci

36、ety.It is expected that the research will bring more insights into hydrogen policy implications from a comprehensive methodology regarding technological improvement,capital investment,the supply chain of hydrogen-related sectors,and the overall economic impact assessment for the transition to a hydr

37、ogen society.1.3 Rephrasing the Hydrogen Strategy under the Global Trend of Decarbonization Amid the Ukrainian crisis and the global energy crisis since 2022,Japan rephrased its hydrogen strategy to take the lead in developing pioneering regulations and support systems for a hydrogen society with de

38、carbonization by supporting businesses in developing a low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia supply in Japan by around 2030.According to the Policy Framework(draft)for Realizing a Hydrogen Society(METI 2023),the support consists of an efficient supply infrastructure,such as tanks and pipelines,to promote

39、international competitiveness and efficient supply chains.Moreover,Japan will also promote hydrogen production and utilization in regions through the development of local supply chains and infrastructure networks.ADBI Working Paper 1403 M.C.Huang et al.3 In the power generation sector,the use of hyd

40、rogen and ammonia is highly anticipated as a cost-effective source in ensuring energy stability while reducing CO2 emissions from thermal power generation and promoting the expansion of demand and cost reduction through the establishment of a large-scale supply chain towards 2030.Regulations and sup

41、port will also be implemented to accelerate the use of hydrogen in power generation,such as the Long-term Decarbonization Auctions and the 2030 nonfossil fuel ratio of 44%or more.In the mobility sector,support for fuel cell vehicles(FCVs)and hydrogen station development has been provided for passeng

42、er cars,but there is a need to focus on commercial vehicles,which have greater potential for hydrogen demand and for which the advantages of FCVs are more evident.This includes expanding policy resources,including tax measures,to support the large-scale construction of hydrogen stations.For railways

43、,the development and demonstration of a domestic hydrogen supply chain through the use of fuel cell railway vehicles and low-environmental-impact railway transportation will be promoted.The amended Energy Conservation Law sets target goals for specific transport operators and shippers,including nonf

44、ossil energy conversion targets such as hydrogen.Future goals include the implementation of approximately 800,000 FCVs,equivalent to passenger cars,by 2030 through the accumulation of demand for long-distance transport and the establishment of hydrogen supply chains.For fuel cell railway vehicles an

45、d railway transportation,the aim is to achieve social implementation by 2030,and for hydrogen stations,the goal is to make the business self-sufficient by the late 2020s,taking into account cost reductions due to regulatory relaxation,and to establish approximately 1,000 stations by 2030.Overall,Jap

46、an is taking steps towards the creation of a hydrogen-based society with a view to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050.In addition,Japan aims to collaborate with local governments and companies to promote the use of hydrogen in various sectors and industries,including ports and factories.The country

47、 plans to invest up to 2 trillion yen($18 billion)in the industry over the next decade.1.4 Research Question and Structure To understand the overall economic assessment of the transition towards a hydrogen society in Japan,the research will apply a quantitative approach to investigate the impact of

48、implementing a hydrogen society through capital investment in the hydrogen-related infrastructure with the foresight technology of 20252035.The research proceeds as follows:Section 2 will provide a literature review of the hydrogen society trend and its gap in empirical studies;Section 3 will introd

49、uce the methodology of the calibration for the technological improvement parameters and the structure of the analytical model;Section 4 demonstrates the scenario and the setting of policy shocks;Section 5 displays the simulation results and their interpretation;and Section 6 presents concluding rema

50、rks including policy implications,research limitations,and future prospects.ADBI Working Paper 1403 M.C.Huang et al.4 2.LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 R&D Measures for Hydrogen Society Roadmap Climate change and the interdependency of the global market have highlighted the need for new energy solutions.In 20