欧洲如何吸引下一代的投资-36页-WN7.pdf

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1、How can Europe attract next-generation inward investment?EY Attractiveness SurveyEuropeJune 2023ForewordExecutive summaryWhere and how businesses invest in Europe:the new location logic 6 4 3Methodology32How investment decisions are shaped:will 2023 be a turning point?12Building Europes future:how t

2、o attract next-generation investment?20C initial analysis of the results of the 22nd EY Europe Attractiveness Survey,published in May 2023,highlighted the extent to which foreign direct investment(FDI)in Europe was affected by the shocks that hit the continent in 2022.Growth in FDI activity stalled

3、in the wake of the war in Ukraine,and the hoped-for post-pandemic rebound stumbled in the face of the unexpected economic disruption.The overall number of projects announced grew just 1%between 2021 and 2022,while the number of jobs created by FDI dropped by 16%.Yet the survey also showed that a hig

4、h number of companies plan to invest in Europe in 2023.In a volatile and fast-changing environment,businesses know that standing still is not an option.What we see emerging today is a paradigm shift as investors priorities evolve,the interests of communities and policymakers shift,and global competi

5、tion intensifies.It is ushering in the next generation of FDI in Europe.In every sector,in every market,businesses are seeking to sharpen their strategic and operational edge.This means making their supply chains more resilient;accelerating their ESG compliance and working toward net zero;rebuilding

6、 their value models around transformative digital technologies,including generative AI;developing their capacity for innovation;and striving to secure the skills needed to deliver their strategic objectives,among other challenges.Those concerns are layered on top of the enduring business imperatives

7、 to seek profitability and efficiency,preferably in a stable operating environment.Todays investments require a new location logic and while companies are rethinking how to select the optimal sites for investment,countries and communities are likewise rethinking their priorities.There is a growing e

8、mphasis on environmental and social goals,and on supporting regional development,alongside the fundamental considerations of job and wealth creation.Quality,not just quantity,is the new mantra for economic development.ForewordJulie Linn Teigland EY EMEIA Area Managing Partner Marc LhermittePartner,E

9、Y Consulting,Global Lead FDI&AttractivenessHanne Jesca Bax EY EMEIA Area Managing Partner Markets&AccountsThis shift is taking place against a backdrop of renewed global competition for investment.Other territories have renewed their appeal to investors,including the US with its powerful Inflation R

10、eduction Act(IRA)and high-growth economies around the world.Europe needs to be agile and adaptive to enhance its attractiveness relative to the competition and to secure the investments that will count in the years to come.The question we ask is:Can Europe do this at both the general and local level

11、s?Across Europe,a common focus is required to build a truly competitive environment,deliver on net-zero and digital transformation,help the value-creating businesses of tomorrow scale,deliver essential skills and support a stable,business-friendly tax and regulatory environment.Perfect alignment of

12、the strategies of different countries or communities is impossible,so public actors must manage a delicate mix of competition and collective action to convince companies that Europes diversity and complexity is a competitive advantage.With the contribution of our experts,this second phase of the 202

13、3 Europe Attractiveness Survey aims to identify the levers that will enable our continent and its territories,working with its industries,multinationals and innovative new entrants,to face the transformation that needs to happen over the next decade.We hope its findings spur a fresh conversation abo

14、ut foreign investment and Europes future.As part of the EY commitment to building a better working world,EY professionals are dedicated to helping businesses,sectors and countries recover,transform and thrive.We firmly believe that foreign investment has a key role to play.EY Europe Attractiveness S

15、urvey 20233Executive summaryWhat is on the mind of foreign investors:The new location logicThe top three priorities for investment in 2023 are:1.Liquidity of financial markets and availability of capital 2.Strength of domestic markets3.Policy approach to climate change and sustainability For more in

16、formationFor further detail on FDI projects in Europe in 2022 and investor sentiment for the future,read our initial analysis.Most investors have plans to establish or expand operations in Europe in 2023:67%in 202353%in 202274%37%53%28%25%26%Among investors that think Europes attractiveness is threa

17、tened,the top risks are:1.Political instability 2.Increased costs3.Increased regulatory burden and reduction in talent pool 4In order to maintain its competitive position in the global economy,Europe should concentrate its efforts on three main areas:The macroeconomic environment impacted Europes FD

18、I growth in 2022:There were 5,962 greenfield and expansion projects announced in Europe in 2022(+1%vs.2021).5,962 There were 343,634 jobs created by announced FDI projects in Europe in 2022(-16%vs.2021).343,634+14% high-tech industries and innovation 26%Support small-and medium-sized enterprises 23%

19、Allow regulation to keep pace with technological and other disruptions 20%Refresh Europes appeal as the natural home of next-generation businesses Europe might face complex economic and social challenges,but businesses need to hear a clear,confident message.Investors will respond positively to a vis

20、ion of Europe that underlines its economic resilience and the stability of its political and regulatory environment,while also committing to support rapid-growth sectors and engaging with the era-defining challenges of the digital and net-zero transitions.1Reinforce support for SMEs,which remain the

21、 vulnerable fabric of Europes economy One of Europes biggest priorities in shaping a competitive environment fit for the future should be to boost support for SMEs and help them scale more effectively.SMEs employ about 100 million people across Europe and play a vital role in innovation.But far fewe

22、r SMEs than larger firms plan to expand in Europe in 2023(57%compared with 79%),and they are also less optimistic about Europes prospects in the next three years.A comprehensive view is required of all the elements needed for more European SMEs to make the leap to become potentially world-leading bu

23、sinesses,from the availability of growth capital to the impact of regulatory frameworks.2Make the most of Europes leadership on climate change and accelerate on ESG Policy on climate change and net zero is one of companies top three considerations when they choose where to invest.The research sugges

24、ts that investors recognize the advantages of Europes leadership on net zero and ESG.Europe should seek to head off the competitive challenge of the US IRA through measures that will accelerate investment in green technology.The survey also highlights the importance to business of the rising share o

25、f renewables in Europes energy mix.It is vital that Europe makes further progress,especially while rising geopolitical tensions continue to threaten energy supplies from outside Europe.The approach must join up with commitments on skills too.4Develop next-generation talent and align skills with the

26、vision of Europes future High employment levels in many European countries mean that businesses face intense competition for talent in most sectors.For instance,the EU Solar Jobs Report 2022 estimates the solar workforce will need to double to more than one million by 2030.As jobs are disrupted by n

27、ew technology,it will become increasingly important for policymakers,businesses and education to create opportunities for both young people and those already in work to develop the skills needed for next-generation businesses.5Build confidence with a modernized tax and regulatory regime Investors to

28、p priority on taxation is the provision of R&D tax credits,which could be key for accelerating progress toward Europes green goals,and businesses want tax rules to be as predictable as possible.While business is a tempting target for politicians looking to increase tax yields,maintaining a stable ta

29、x environment has a huge impact on confidence.Clarity and predictability are also important for broader regulatory frameworks.Even where policy is still emerging for example,around the digital economy policymakers can promote confidence by giving clear signals about their intentions and take initiat

30、ives to strengthen internal markets.These might include moves toward a capital markets union or strengthening aspects of the single market,such as services and infrastructure,to maximize the benefits of a resilient,continent-wide market in a volatile world.6Simultaneously strengthen Europes capabili

31、ties for developing technology and manufacturing in all sectors The 2023 survey confirms R&D as the top category for potential investment in Europe over the next three years:64%of executives expect to increase their European footprint in R&D over the next three years,but far fewer expect to increase

32、 their manufacturing footprint.Policymakers should develop a clear framework to encourage investment in the high-tech,high-value activities that are reshaping the global economy.This must include an ambition to put Europe at the forefront of the AI revolution by developing strong regulatory framewor

33、ks that allow business to reap its benefits while setting clear parameters around its use.The development of technology should not be the only focus,however.Europe should consider how to encourage investment throughout the value chain,particularly in manufacturing capability especially in strategic

34、industries where policymakers seek to reduce the regions external dependencies amid rising geopolitical tensions.3Even among executives who are optimistic about Europes prospects as a destination for inward investment,the view is that policymakers need to actively work to prepare for next-generation

35、 FDI.We have identified six priorities that are particularly critical for foreign investors.What Europe can do to unlock next-generation FDI in Europe?EU Solar Jobs Report 2022,Solar Power Europe,2022.EY Europe Attractiveness Survey 20235Where and how businesses invest in Europe:the new location of

36、FDI projects announced and jobs created in Europe between 2010 and 2022Source:EY European Investment Monitor 2023.2010201420182012201620202011201520192013201720212022Figure 13,7583,9093,7973,9574,4485,0836,0416,6536,3566,4125,5785,8775,962147,357Number of projectsNumber of jobs created158,036170,434

37、166,283186,348217,666272,625353,469275,955274,935213,536394,280343,634Growth in FDI projects in Europe plateaued during 2022,with a year-on-year increase of just 1%compared with 5%growth the year before while the number of jobs created by FDI dropped by 16%.The number of announced projects remains 7

38、%lower than in 2019,immediately before the pandemic,and 10%below the peak of 2017.FDI in Europe in 2022 in summaryWhere and how businesses invest in Europe:the new location logicEuropes three largest economies continue to attract the bulk of FDI flows,accounting for 50%of total projects in 2022:Fran

39、ce had 1,259 projects(up 3%on 2021).The UK had 929 projects(down 6%).Germany had 832 projects(down 1%).One of the most striking features of the 2022 data is the increase in FDI projects in several Southern,Central and Eastern European states,including Italy,Poland,Portugal,Romania and Turkiye.This i

40、s partly a result of the reconfiguration of global supply chains and a trend toward cost-competitive locations for manufacturing and back-office operations.Meanwhile,Ireland recorded a substantial increase,partly reflecting its agile,pro-business agenda and appeal to large US corporates.EY Europe At

41、tractiveness Survey 20237Ricardo ValenteCity Councillor for Economy,Employment and Entrepreneurship,Porto Porto has become a hotspot for foreign direct investment in Southern Europe,attracting over 2.7 billion euros in investment projects and being able to create 17,400 jobs over the last three year

42、s.Source:EY European Investment Monitor 2023.3243212342372432481841,259832929United KingdomBelgiumSpainItalyTurkiyeGermanyIrelandPortugalFrancePoland6%4%10%+17%+22%1%+21%+24%+3%+23%29103654718Share of market:Top 10 host countries for FDI projects in 2022Figure 2Where and how businesses invest in Eur

43、ope:the new location are in a phase of increasing geostrategic tensions which are leading to a global reconfiguration in which Europe is also seeking to reduce its external dependencies.The fundamental structural shifts that are under way are creating huge instability,and this is expected to last fo

44、r a couple of years as countries and businesses adapt.This is what we describe as stabilized volatility.Going forward,volatility will be perpetuated but it is likely to be at a more consistent level than in 2022.Famke Krumbmller EY EMEIA Leader,Geostrategic Business Group 202027%202140%202253%202367

45、%Does your company have plans to establish or expand operations in Europe over the next year?“Yes”answers only.Figure 3Source:EY Attractiveness Survey Europe June 2023(total respondents:508 surveyed between 1 February and 20 March 2023).The factors that shaped the backdrop for FDIs disappointing tra

46、jectory in 2022 have not gone away.These include widespread macroeconomic pressures and rising geopolitical tensions not only the war in Ukraine but,increasingly,in the relationship with China.New challenges are emerging too.The IRA,for instance,is already attracting investors to the US,affecting Eu

47、ropes strategic industries such as energy,automotive and advanced manufacturing.It has the potential to reshape transatlantic competition for inward investment.The outlook for 2023 Despite the challenging environment,there are still reasons to be optimistic about the prospects for FDI in Europe in 2

48、023:67%of the businesses we surveyed have“plans to establish or expand operations in Europe over the next year,”a metric that has rebounded sharply since the pandemic.Where and how businesses invest in Europe:the new location logicEY Europe Attractiveness Survey 20239Supply chain redesignFigure 4Sou

49、rce:EY Attractiveness Survey Europe June 2023(total respondents:508 surveyed between 1 February and 20 March 2023).Inflation and elevated interest rates continue to weigh heavily on both household purchasing power and investment demand yet Europes economy has proven more resilient than many expected

50、,leading to an upward revision of our GDP forecast for Europe in 2023.With increased public investment on the horizon,especially in energy and technology infrastructure,the improving outlook may stimulate an increase in private investment as businesses seek to accelerate their digital and green tran