国际战略研究中心-克里姆林宫的行动手册3：保持信念（英）.pdf

《国际战略研究中心-克里姆林宫的行动手册3：保持信念（英）.pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《国际战略研究中心-克里姆林宫的行动手册3：保持信念（英）.pdf（117页珍藏版）》请在淘文阁 - 分享文档赚钱的网站上搜索。

1、The Kremlin Playbook 3Keeping the FaithFEBRUARY 2022A Report of the CSIS Europe,Russia,and Eurasia ProgramPROJECT DIRECTORHeather A.ConleyAUTHORSHeather A.ConleyDonatienne RuyCONTRIBUTORSMarlene LaruelleTengiz PkhaladzeElizabeth H.ProdromouMajda RugeLanham Boulder New York LondonII|Heather A.Conley

2、and Donatienne Ruy About CSIS The Center for Strategic and International Studies(CSIS)is a bipartisan,nonprofit policy research organization dedicated to advancing practical ideas to address the worlds greatest challenges.Thomas J.Pritzker was named chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in 2015,suc

3、ceeding former U.S.senator Sam Nunn(D-GA).Founded in 1962,CSIS is led by John J.Hamre,who has served as president and chief executive officer since 2000.CSISs purpose is to define the future of national security.We are guided by a distinct set of valuesnonpartisanship,independent thought,innovative

4、thinking,cross-disciplinary scholarship,integrity and professionalism,and talent development.CSISs values work in concert toward the goal of making real-world impact.CSIS scholars bring their policy expertise,judgment,and robust networks to their research,analysis,and recommendations.We organize con

5、ferences,publish,lecture,and make media appearances that aim to increase the knowledge,awareness,and salience of policy issues with relevant stakeholders and the interested public.CSIS has impact when our research helps to inform the decisionmaking of key policymakers and the thinking of key influen

6、cers.We work toward a vision of a safer and more prosperous world.CSIS does not take specific policy positions;accordingly,all views expressed herein should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).2022 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.All rights reserved.ISBN:978-1-538

7、1-7045-8(pb);978-1-5381-7046-5(eBook)Center for Strategic&International Studies1616 Rhode Island Avenue,NWWashington,D.C.20036202-887-0200|www.csis.orgRowman&Littlefield4501 Forbes BoulevardLanham,MD 20706301-459-3366|III|Heather A.Conley and Donatienne Ruy AcknowledgmentsThe research journey for th

8、e Kremlin Playbook began nearly seven years ago with a grant from the Smith Richardson Foundation to determine whether Russian economic presence could affect,or outright alter,the transatlantic orientation of a select group of European countries.There was quantifiable impact,but,more importantly,we

9、revealed Russias methodology related to this particular form of malign influence.The Kremlin Playbook:Understanding Russian Influence in Central and Eastern Europe has become a research and analytical reference point for many policy practitioners and scholars.Although the research was never designed

10、 as a series,more consequential research questions organically sprang from the initial report.As we continued to explore this space,we constructed a larger store of knowledge of how Russias malign tactics evolve in as many European countries as possible;formulated transatlantic policy countermeasure

11、s;and described specific enabling forces related to this malign influence(Kremlin Playbook 2:The Enablers).We began to receive requests from European and U.S.experts to study these malign activities while a few European government officials grew concerned about the public exploration of those ties.T

12、his third study was also made possible by support from the Smith Richardson Foundation.The Kremlin Playbook 3:Keeping the Faith departs from the first two reports in that the research does not concentrate on the patterns of Russian malign economic influencethough there is an economic dimension.In th

13、e first Kremlin Playbook,Russian oligarchs Konstantin Malofeev and Vladimir Yakunin appeared economically and politically active in several case study countries.But it was their role as so-called Orthodox oligarchs,their funding of religious charitable and cultural organizations,and their ideational

14、 role in supporting Russia as the defender of the faithful that galvanized our interest in understanding Russias instrumentalization of faith and traditions.Whether we saved the most interesting research for the last Kremlin Playbook is for the reader to decide,but this certainly was the most challe

15、nging research.Beware:this is not easy material to consume,and its implications are,at times,overwhelming.But this is exactly why this form of malign influence is so powerful and why so many are attracted to it.This was a gratitude-filled research journey with many wonderful people to thank who made

16、 the entire Kremlin Playbook series possible.The reports were controversial research(particularly this one),attracting admirers and adversaries alike,requiring enhanced cyber defenses and legal reviews.CSIS president and CEO Dr.John Hamre never flinched and championed the role that CSIS played in he

17、lping the Washington policy community understand the issue and the stakes.I am so grateful for Dr.Hamres leadership and generosity of spirit throughout my tenure at CSIS.The first two Kremlin Playbooks were a successful,four-year collaborative research joint venture with the Bulgaria-based think tan

18、k the Center for the Study of Democracy(CSD)under the leadership of Chairman Ognian Shentov,joined by Program Director and Chief Economist Ruslan Stefanov and Martin Vladimirov,director of the CSD Energy and Climate Program.Our CSD colleagues collected and analyzed reams of national economic data to

19、 quantify Russias economic footprint and produced the quantitative framework for the initial Kremlin Playbook.Their conviviality and partnership ensured a strong transatlantic product,and CSD has continued to conduct important research in this space.IV|The Kremlin Playbook 3New research horizons req

20、uire openness,unmatched curiosity,and great courage to examine new areas of inquiry.James Mina,the lead CSIS research associate on the first report,and Donatienne Ruy,the lead associate fellow on the second and third playbooks,exemplified all of these qualities as they boldly researched where CSIS h

21、ad never“gone”before.Through their exhaustive efforts,we uncovered information that surprised us,reinforced our hypotheses,or downright shook us.At times both frustrated and invigorated,we shared long philosophical conversations in my office about what it all meantmemories I will cherish the most.Si

22、mply put,I could not imagine taking this journey without my very special wingman and wingwoman for,without them,this body of work would not have been possible.Because The Kremlin Playbook 3 traveled down a different analytical road,we required new research maps and compasses as well as new partners.

23、One of the animating analytical forces behind the third report was Dima Adamskys definitive work,Russian Nuclear Orthodoxy:Religion,Politics,and Strategy.Although the pandemic prevented the study team from meeting in person and created challenges and illness in its own right,our extraordinary countr

24、y expertsDr.Marlene Laruelle,Dr.Elizabeth Prodromou,Dr.Majda Ruge,and Tengiz Pkhaladzebecame a cohesive unit from which we learned and within which we challenged one another intellectually.It never seemed like work when we convenedit simply became a privilege to receive this groups collected insight

25、s and wisdom.We are also grateful for the insights of Dr.Jeffrey Mankoff.While the research is the core of the project,it relies on a highly skilled team at CSIS to design compelling graphics,copyedit the text,and in general bring our written word to life.Many thanks to the incredible talents of Sar

26、ah Grace,who created and designed the abridged online report;William Taylor,who designed the beautiful graphics that make our work visibly accessible;Jeeah Lee and Katherine Stark,who coordinated an inordinate number of drafts and reviews for the many parts of the report;and Phillip Meylan,who edite

27、d those drafts at lightning speed and,as always,with very keen eyes.I also wish to thank my immediate CSIS family in the Europe,Russia,and Eurasia Program who“kept faith”with me while I juggled multiple initiatives.Donatienne Ruy is particularly grateful to Dejana Saric,our research assistant,for he

28、r help on the Bosnia case study and her infinite patience and support throughout the project.Our very special thanks to Aaron Myers for keeping usand the entire organizationcyber-safe whenever we released our reports.Before its release in October 2016,I believed the Kremlin Playbook would be the mos

29、t important research I would conduct that year,but I was wrong:it became the most impactful research series of my 12-year tenure at CSIS and a highlight of my professional career.I am so grateful to the countless people who mentored and guided me along the way,culminating in this final project.Enjoy

30、 the report and thank you for embarking on this journey with me.Heather A.ConleyV|Heather A.Conley and Donatienne Ruy ContentsPreface 1Introduction 21|Framing the Issues 5Terms and Taxonomy 5Russian Views of Traditionalism 82|Russias Internal Dynamics 10Conservatism in Russia 10The Relationship betw

31、een the Kremlin and the Russian Orthodox Church 13The Actors of Strategic Conservatism 17Between Multiconfessional and State Religion:Religious Repression inside Russia 193|Russias Strategic Conservatism in Practice 20Modus Operandi 20Interaction with Other Channels of Influence 21Strategic and Tact

32、ical Benefits 234|Cross-Cutting Trends 24Reuniting the Orthodox World 24Traditional Values against the“Decadent West”28Local Enablers of Strategic Conservatism 325|Impact and Limitations:Keeping the Faith 34The Limits of Strategic Conservatism 35Keeping the Faith 37Appendix:Case Studies 38France 38B

33、osnia and Herzegovina 50Georgia 58Greece 67About the Authors 791|The Kremlin Playbook 3Preface“I remember a span of more than half a century when,for all our differences,Americans maintained a bipartisan commitment to the freedom and security of our allies.And together with our allies we kept faith

34、with those on the other side of the walls that divided the oppressed from the free.We were confident they wanted the same things we didfreedom,equal justice,the rule of law,a fair chance to prosper by their own industry and talents.We kept the faith,and we prevailed.”John McCains farewell letter to

35、the Munich Security Conference1“In Russia,our trend is back to Orthodoxy,tradition and Christianity.Europe is dying.The West,in U.S.president Ronald Reagans time.helped for this communism smoke to get out from Russia.Now its our turn.We have to pray for the liberal smoke to get out from Europe and A

36、merica.”Konstantin Malofeev2“Let me state very strongly for all Americans that to be a part of Putins fan club doesnt make you a conservative.Real conservatives consider Christianity to be something very much(the)opposite of Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbans policies.”Peter Marki-Zay,Hungarian

37、opposition leader3“Jesus began to speak first to his disciples,saying:Be on your guard against the yeast of the Pharisees,which is hypocrisy.There is nothing concealed that will not be disclosed,or hidden that will not be made known.What you have said in the dark will be heard in the daylight,and wh

38、at you have whispered in the ear in the inner rooms will be proclaimed from the roofs.”Luke 12:13(New International Version)“The struggle of our age is the struggle for the minds,hearts and souls of men.Men are being torn between two opposite ideologies and nations find themselves being wooed in the

39、 two camps by all sorts of charming propaganda and deals.The stakes for both have never been higher.”Herbert L.Bomberger42|Heather A.Conley and Donatienne Ruy IntroductionFrom a U.S.perspective,the separation of religion from the state is sacrosanct.The drafters of the Constitutional Convention beli

40、eved that the state should have“no power to influence its citizens toward or away from a religion.”5 The First Amendment of the Bill of Rights enshrines this protection from state interference with the additional requirement that the individuals right to freely worship must be protected.In other wor

41、ds,it is in the United States historical and cultural DNA that the state cannot influence its citizens regarding their religious or non-religious views and values.But what if another country,for its own malign purposes,actively sought to influence religious or traditional views?How can the United St

42、ates and its European alliesin spite of their different historical and cultural traditions regarding religion and identityprotect the religious beliefs,traditions,and values of their citizens from malign influence,particularly when they are obligated to protect the very beliefs that malign actors se

43、ek to manipulate?This study aims to protect these beliefs by exposing how Russian malign influence works in this particularly challenging and very personal dimensiona new strategic seamto ensure citizens do not unwittingly become part of an influence operation.The instrumentalization of values,tradi

44、tions,and religious beliefs is a relatively recent and particularly pernicious front of the Kremlins influence efforts in Europe and elsewhere.Transatlantic societies are grappling with the speed of societal change stemming from economic shifts,globalization,migration pressures,demographic and gener

45、ational shifts,pandemic restrictions,and broader shifts in mores,identity,diversity,equity,and inclusion.Societal anxiety and fear related to these rapid shiftsand the subsequent politics and political figures that seek to capitalize on themhave fueled societal divisions around the so-called cultura

46、l wars in Western societies.3|The Kremlin Playbook 3By now,it is well understood that Russian active measures exploit and amplify existing Western societal divisions,particularly racial and ethnic tensions.But the Kremlins use of the Orthodox faith and traditional values is a particularly challengin

47、g terrain to navigate with balance and objectivity.The Kremlin embraces and deploys a nationalistic,top-down strategy that transcends typical Russian malign influence operationssome ideologues in its orbit even defend a messianic vision for these actions.Their most extreme theological narrative stem

48、s from 2 Thessalonians,chapter 2,verses 67 in the New Testament of the Bible and speaks to the role of the“katechon”or“the restrainer”who holds back chaos and the Antichrist during the end times.6 In this modern retelling,Russias leader,President Vladimir Putin,is the katechon,and the decadence of t

49、he West(as exhibited in the United States and an anti-Russia Europe)is the embodiment of the Antichrist.7 Subscribers to this theory,particularly in the Russian Orthodox clergy,believe the Antichrist has visited in various forms throughout history(for example,Hitler in World War II).8 Now,an expansi

50、ve West embodied by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization(NATO)and the European Union,with its secularism and decadence,must again be defeated by the katechon.While the Kremlin itself may not defend such an apocalyptic vision,it can play on these themes when convenient.There are many within and out