2022虎年中国投资策略：繁荣、机遇和可持续性（英）-HSBC-2022.2.pdf

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1、Disclosures&Disclaimer:This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Asset/SubcategoryFebruary 2022Multi-Asset|ChinaChina in the Year of the TigerPlay February 2022Multi-AssetChinaChina in theYear

2、 of the TigerProsperity,opportunity,sustainabilityAfter a real estate crunch,policy crackdowns and supply chain disruptionswe explain why we are more optimistic about 2022 andprovide a one-stop shop for our macro and equity views on China 0 Work in progress,from 2021 to 2022 Change of growth model P

3、roperty investment:annual growth rate to halve to 3-4%in the next five years Green and higher-end manufacturing to rise Chinas great transition:from construction to capex and consumption.Page 11 Real estate tightening:property high-yield bonds Survival of the fittest.Page 75 Green investment:ESG and

4、 climate policy.Page 29 Higher-end manufacturing:Smart manufacturing to fuel capex.Page 69 Common prosperity Middle class:RMB100trn Decoupling:A closer look at technology imports.Page 61 Demographics:How worrying is slowing population growth?Page 63 High leverage:Chinas rising debt how big is the ri

5、sk?Page 65 1 Multi-Asset China February 2022 Greater focus this year Easing to support growth Green investment:RMB200trn over 2022-2060 Higher-end manufacturing:60%of all manufacturing by 2030 China in 2022 Five macro themes.Page 9 A switch-up in investment.Page 49 Time for a tech and green stimulus

6、 package.Page 67 Stepping up target easing.Page 47 Tiger macro outlook USD/RMB:6.40 at end-Q1,6.55 at end-Q4 9-16%index upside for A shares in 2022e Credit:China Onshore Insights 2022 outlook.Page 17 FX:RMB overstretching.Page 19 Rates:Onshore China Off to a roaring start.Page 21 Equity strategy:202

7、2 outlook.Page 105 Investment compass Sustainability,manufacturing,consumption Green:ESG Integrated Utilities.Page 31 Green:Electric vehicles Taking it up a notch.Page 39 Manufacturing:Automation Gear up for growth.Page 33 Manufacturing:Printed circuit boards.Page 143 Consumption:Consumer Silver dol

8、lars,the she-economy,Gen-Z style.Page 37 Consumption:Cosmetics Time to shine for local brands.Page 127 Multi-Asset China February 2022 2 We expect Beijing to introduce more targeted easing measures support for green investments,small businesses and manufacturers,and tax incentives and subsidies to p

9、romote innovation and technological upgrading.This all bodes well for equities in 2022.Few China investors will be sad to see the back of the Year of the Ox.It will be remembered for widespread disruption on several fronts the lingering pandemic,abrupt policy changes,and the tanking property market.

10、As we showcase our latest views on China at the start of the Year of the Tiger,we see reasons for optimism.After a rough year and a rocky start in January,we forecast upside of between 9%and 17%for mainland China and Hong Kong stock indices in 2022,propelled by pro-growth policies,improving earnings

11、,low valuations and ample liquidity.Underpinned by a rebounding economy and a backdrop of monetary easing in China as the US Fed tightens,this should be good news for chastened equity investors who learned an important lesson last year it is unwise to stray too far from Beijings latest policy direct

12、ives.On the macro front:Our economists forecast 5.6%GDP growth in 2022e.HSBCs FX team thinks the RMB is overstretched and sees the USD-RMB heading to 6.55 by end-2022.Our fixed income analysts remain overweight China government bonds in 2022.The policy divergence between China and US has widened,wit

13、h the Peoples Bank of China delivering the first interest rate cut in two years.On the credit front,the focus is on identifying the survivors in the offshore high-yield property sector after a year of record bond defaults and the biggest correction in a decade.What worries us most going into 2022 ar

14、e bonds issued by local government financing vehicles(LGFVs).Given their size and complexity,we cannot stress enough that fixing LGFV debt is the problem that China cannot afford to get wrong.Beyond our headline forecasts,we also flag the long-term trends investors need to follow(see page 4).This re

15、port has two sections.At the front we highlight what we see as the major reports of the year.The second section highlights the depth and breadth of our China coverage.The total of 62 two-page summaries cover economics,FX,rates,credit,and ESG,as well as thematic reports by our A-and H-share equity an

16、alysts.A happy Year of the Tiger from all of us at HSBC Global Research and HSBC Qianhai Securities.Welcome Tiger,good riddance Ox 3 Multi-Asset China February 2022 Key data and forecasts We see Chinas economy rebounding to 5.6%in 2022e Q1 2022e Q2 2022e Q3 2022e Q4 2022e 2022e Q1 2023e Q2 2023e GDP

17、,%y-o-y 4.4 5.2 6.2 6.2 5.6 6.3 5.9 GDP,%q-o-q 1.1 2.6 1.5 1.2 n/a 1.3 1.6 CPI,%y-o-y 1.6 1.9 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.3 2.3 Source:CEIC,HSBC forecasts with the RMB staying relatively range-bound Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 USD-RMB 6.40 6.40 6.45 6.50 6.55 Source:HSBC and the major stock indexes ri

18、sing between 9.2%and 17%SHCOMP CSI 300 SZCOMP Hang Seng HSBC end-2022 target 4,000 5,600 17,500 28,030 HSBC target implied 12-month forward PE(x)12.9 15.1 23.7 11.4 Index upside 9.2%10.08%15.6%17%Source:Bloomberg,Wind,HSBC Qianhai Securities estimates Steady rise in foreign holdings of China governm

19、ent bonds Source:CEIC,HSBC ESG:Wind and solar sector share price performance relative to equity indices Source:Refinitiv Datastream,HSBC estimates 456789101112-20020406080100120140Jan-18Feb-18Mar-18Apr-18May-18Jun-18Jul-18Aug-18Sep-18Oct-18Nov-18Dec-18Jan-19Feb-19Mar-19Apr-19May-19Jun-19Jul-19Aug-19

20、Sep-19Oct-19Nov-19Dec-19Jan-20Feb-20Mar-20Apr-20May-20Jun-20Jul-20Aug-20Sep-20Oct-20Nov-20Dec-20Jan-21Feb-21Mar-21Apr-21May-21Jun-21Jul 21Aug 21Sep 21Oct 21Nov 21Dec 21%of outstanding stockRMB bnForeign purchase of CGBsForeign ownership ratio(RHS)-100 200 300 400 500Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov

21、-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Solar sector(H-shares)rel.performance to HSISolar sector(A-shares)rel.performance to SHCOMPWind sector rel.performance to HSI Multi-Asset China February 2022 4 HSBCs key investment themes ENERGY TRANSITION Power producers like China Resources Power and Ch

22、ina Power International used to be“unloved”by investors due to their coal exposure.They are now benefiting from investment plans which are increasingly geared to renewable energy their share prices are up more than 100%in the last 18 months.See page 30.AUTOMATION Chinas industrial robot density is s

23、till only around one-fifth of leading countries such as Singapore and South Korea.Sales of key automation products are expected to rise by 20%y-o-y in 2021e.China accounted for around 44%of global new robotics installation in 2020.See page 32.FUTURE CONSUMER New generation,new mind-set.Young people

24、have a different set of consumer needs and wants.They want convenience and ready-to-cook dishes and use fresh food e-commerce to save time and money.They like electric vehicles,too.In many sectors,we see Generation Z those born between 1995 and 2010 as the most important consumer group over the next

25、 decade.See page 36.FUTURE TRANSPORT Cars manufacturers are moving to the next level of autonomous driving.Cameras are the most commonly used sensors and we forecast the average number of cameras per car to increase from 1.7 today to 5.3 in 2030e.We see lenses and image sensor makers as the key bene

26、ficiaries and forecast the addressable market size in China for these devices to increase from over USD2bn in 2020 to over USD11bn in 2030e.See page 38.DEMOGRAPHICS Population growth has slowed to a record low and the labour force is shrinking.But a smarter workforce is replacing retirees.In 2020,th

27、ere were over 218m people who had a university or higher level of education,a 73%increase from 2010.Chinas current number of students in tertiary education is greater than those in the US,Japan,Germany,South Korea,and the UK combined.See page 54.FUTURE CITIES China continues to expand the national h

28、igh-speed rail(HSR)network.We expect HSR passenger traffic to grow at a CAGR of 10-11%over 2020-25e,with the share of railway passenger transport rising from 64%in 2019 to 80%by 2025e.See page 146.DIGITAL FINANCE Chinas e-CNY is leading the global push for central bank digital currencies.The number

29、of individuals with digital CNY accounts has risen to 140m 10%of the population with 10m corporate accounts created.See page 86.DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY Even before COVID-19 emerged,Chinese consumers were starting to purchase medical drugs from telemedicine platforms.That trend is now accelerating.Our

30、analysis finds that the online pharmaceutical market will grow from RMB125bn in 2019 to RMB1trn in 2030e.That means the online penetration will jump from 5%to 24%.See page 148.5 Multi-Asset China February 2022 Welcome Tiger,good riddance Ox 2 Our major China reports 7 Economics:China in 2022 five ma

31、cro themes 8 Economics:Chinas great transition 10 Economics:The road to common prosperity 12 Economics:Greater Bay Area picking up pace 14 Credit:China Onshore Insights 2022 outlook 16 FX:RMB overstretching 18 Rates:Onshore China Off to a roaring start 20 Multi-asset:The launch of Southbound Bond Co

32、nnect 22 Equity Strategy:Upgrade China to overweight 24 ESG and climate policy 28 ESG Integrated:Utilities From“unloved”to winners 30 Automation:Gear up for growth 32 Consumer:Silver dollars,the she-economy,Gen-Z style 36 Electric Vehicles:Taking it up a notch 38 Internet:A new playbook 40 Virtual R

33、eality:Hitting its stride 42 Our China coverage:Depth,breadth,and big ideas Macro 45 Economics:Stepping up targeted easing 46 Economics:A switch-up in investment 48 Economics:The rising wealth of China 50 Economics:Demographics three wont make a crowd 52 Economics:Climbing the ladder of scientific r

34、esearch 54 Economics:Why technology diffusion is so important 56 Economics:A closer look at technology imports 60 Economics:How worrying is slowing population growth?62 Economics:Rising debt how big is the risk?64 Economics:Time for a tech and green stimulus package 66 Economics:Smart manufacturing

35、to fuel capex 68 Economics:Common prosperity and tax reforms 70 Economics:What decoupling?72 Credit:Property HY Survival of the fittest 76 Credit AMCs:The wounds are healing 78 Credit:Bond markets the promise of diversification 80 Credit:Internet sailing into the wind 82 Credit:LGFVs 2022 outlook,wo

36、rried but not scared 84 FX:The e-CNY prepares for lift-off 86 The PBoC strikes back 88 Rates:WGBI inclusion the last piece of the puzzle 90 ESG 93 HK SFC updates guidance for fund disclosures 94 HK to embed more ESG in revised governance code 96 Climate Investment Update Chinas 14th Five-year Plan 9

37、8 Green Bonds in China 100 Equity Strategy 103 China Equity Strategy:2022 outlook 104 Why we remain overweight on mainland China 108 Ageing and pensions 110 East,West,Home Best:ADRs and VIEs 112 Hong Kong Equity Strategy:2022 outlook 114 Equities 117 Aluminium:Going green challenges vs opportunities

38、 118 Autonomous driving:Smart cars need smart sensors 120 Banks:A new playbook for wealth management 122 Construction:Buying time to build new businesses 124 Cosmetics:Time to shine for local brands 128 Financials survey:Anatomy of a financial consumer 130 Hong Kong Real Estate:Building back better

39、in 2022 132 Internet data centres:Regulated growth 134 Meat products:The need for speed 136 Olefins:Strong home base,big home run 138 Passive Components:Getting aggressive 140 Printed circuit boards:Global leader with more room to run 142 Railways:Let the train take the strain 146 Telemedicine:A RMB

40、1trn market by 2030e 148 Titanium dioxide:Batteries now included 150 Vocational Education:Driven by job-hungry graduates 152 Disclosure appendix 155 Disclaimer 160 Contents Multi-Asset China February 2022 6 This page has intentionally been left blank 7 Multi-Asset China February 2022 Our major China

41、 reports Multi-Asset China February 2022 8 Chinas slowing economy in recent months has prompted Beijing to step up policy easing to shore up growth.How and when will these measures kick in and help drive a recovery?As a guide to 2022,we highlight five key macro themes:More easing.We expect the PBoC

42、to cut the reserve ratio for banks and increase relending(banks given funds to lend to customers)to boost cash available for higher-end manufacturing,green projects and SMEs.The central government is also set to increase spending on technology and allow local governments to borrow more to bolster in

43、vestments in new infrastructure like 5G.Meanwhile,Beijing will also likely slow the pace of regulations to mitigate the negative impact on growth.Manufacturing investment is set to quicken.Despite softer global demand,investment in mid to high-end manufacturing is set to gain momentum next year than

44、ks to improving profitability and high capacity utilisation rates.Indeed,manufacturing capex spending has already picked up,reaching a two-year CAGR of over 6%since August,higher than 2019s growth of 3.1%.More generous tax incentives and other policy support for technology upgrading should also add

45、fuel to the upturn in manufacturing investment,which will likely grow by double digits.Green investments.After rolling out detailed plans for de-carbonising the economy,Beijing is ready to jumpstart green investments next year.Given the massive amount of spending needed to achieve its longer-term cl

46、imate goals,there is ample room for front-loading of projects and lifting growth in green investments to above 30%p.a.in the coming years.Property investment to bottom out gradually.Beijing has already started,and will likely continue,to fine-tune its property lending policies.Combined with anticipa

47、ted easing in general financial conditions as well as local administrative measures,this should help put a floor on the property downturn next year.Core inflation to stay muted.We expect core CPI to stay below 1.5%next year considering the absence of supply-chain bottlenecks and a modest recovery in

48、 GDP growth.Main risks.More-than-expected cases of COVID-19 at home,especially in light of new variants like Omicron,may hinder the consumption recovery.Geopolitical tensions could also weigh on business sentiment.Economics:China in 2022 five macro themes Beijing will likely step up monetary and fis

49、cal easing,fine-tune property lending,and slow the pace of regulations Growth in both higher-end manufacturing and green investments is set to quicken;property investment to bottom We expect GDP growth to recover gradually into H2 2022,but core inflation will likely stay muted Qu Hongbin Co-Head Asi

50、an Econ Research,Chief China Economist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited .hk+852 2822 2025 Jing Liu Senior Economist,Greater China The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited .hk+852 3941 0063 Jingyang Chen Economist,Greater China The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corpo