乌克兰战争对全球贸易和投资的影响（英）-世界银行-2022.5.pdf

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1、Edited by Michele RutaTRADE,INVESTMENT AND COMPETITIVENESST R A D E,I N V E S T M E N T A N D C O M P E T I T I V E N E S SEQUITABLE GROWTH,FINANCE&INSTITUTIONS INSIGHT The Impact of the War in Ukraine on Global Trade and InvestmentPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Discl

2、osure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone:202-473-1000 Internet:www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions.The findings,interpretations,and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily

3、reflect the views of The World Bank,its Board of Executive Directors,or the governments they represent.The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy,completeness,or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors,omissions,or discrepancies in the informa

4、tion,or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information,methods,processes,or conclusions set forth.The boundaries,colors,denominations,and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any

5、 territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank,all of which are specifically reserved.Rights and Permissions The material in this work is

6、 subject to copyright.Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge,this work may be reproduced,in whole or in part,for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given.Any queries on rights and licenses,including subsidiary rights,should be addressed to Wo

7、rld Bank Publications,The World Bank Group,1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433,USA;fax:202-522-2625;e-mail:pubrightsworldbank.org.Cover photo:TiborCarPhoto/iStockAcknowledgements4About the authors5Executive Summary6M.Ruta1.Effects on trade and income of developing countries11M.Chepeliev,M.Maliszews

8、ka and M S E Pereira2.Effects on Food Trade27M.Ruta,N.Rocha and A.Espitia3.Effects on Global Logistics and Connectivity39J F.Arvis,C.Rastogi and D.Saslavsky 4.Effects on Ukraines key(non-food)exports and specific GVC44J-C Maur5.The Effects of Russias global value-chain participation57D.Winkler,L.Wue

9、ster and D.Knight6.Effects on Global FDI70Y.Liu7.Effects on Global Tourism75A.Pio,A.Beath and R C.Kuo8.Long term effects of the war in Ukraine on global value chains80M.RutaContents Acknowledgments This study has been produced by a team coordinated by Michele Ruta(Lead Economist,ETIRI).Individual ch

10、apters were authored by Jean Franois Arvis(Senior Economist,ETIRI),Andrew Beath(Senior Economist,ETIMT),Alvaro Espitia(Consultant,ETIRI),Maksym Chepeliev(Research Economist Center for Global Trade Analysis,Purdue University),David Knight(Lead Economist,EECM1),Ryan Chia Kuo(Young Professional,ETIMT),

11、Yan Liu(Economist,ETIIC),Maryla Maliszewska(Senior Economist,ETIRI),Jean Christophe Maur(Senior Economist,ETIRI),Maria Seara E Pereira(Consultant,ETIRI),Alex Pio(Extended Term Consultant,ETIMT),Cordula Rastogi(Senior Economist,ETIRI),Nadia Rocha(Senior Economist,ETIRI),Michele Ruta(Lead Economist,ET

12、IRI),Daniel Saslavsky(Senior Economist,ETIRI),Deborah Winkler(Senior Consultant,ETIRI),Lucie Wuester(Consultant,ETIRI).This report is an output of Trade,Investment and Competitiveness department.Mona Haddad(Director;TIC),Asya Akhlaque(Practice Manager,ETIIC),Martha Licetti(Practice Manager,ETIMT),An

13、tonio Nucifora(Practice Manager,ETIRI)provided guidance and supervision.The study also benefited from the comments of Jasmin Chakeri(Practice Manager,EECM2),Ana Fernandes(Lead Economist,DECTI),Madhur Gautam(Lead Economist,SAGGL),Sandeep Mahajan(Practice Manager,EECM1),Aaditya Mattoo(Chief Economist,

14、EAP),Lalita Moorty(Regional Director,EECDR),Ilias Skamnelos(Practice Manager,EECF1),Daria Taglioni(Research Manager,DECTI),Dominique van der Mensbrugghe(Research Professor and Director,Center for Global Trade Analysis,Purdue University).Alvaro Espitia(Consultant,ETIRI)helped coordinating the revisio

15、n process.Bruna Sofia Simoes developed the cover and interior design.Chris Wellisz edited the text.Nathalie David(Knowledge Management Analyst,EFIOS)managed the publishing process.The team also thanks Aidara Janulaityte and Victoria Fofanah in Washington,D.C.,for their assistance in preparing this r

16、eport and for their support of the project.About the authors The editorMichele Ruta is Lead Economist at the World Bank where he works on trade and regional integration.He holds a PhD in economics from Columbia University and had previous appointments at the International Monetary Fund,the World Tra

17、de Organization and the European University Institute.His research has appeared,among others,in the Journal of International Economics,the Journal of Development Economics,and the Journal of Public Economics.His books and edited volumes include The Economics of Deep Trade Agreements and Belt and Roa

18、d Economics.Chapters authorsJean Franois Arvis(Senior Economist,ETIRI)Andrew Beath(Senior Economist,ETIMT)Alvaro Espitia(Consultant,ETIRI)Maksym Chepeliev(Research Economist Center for Global Trade Analysis,Purdue University)David Knight(Lead Economist,EECM1)Ryan Chia Kuo(Young Professional,ETIMT)Ya

19、n Liu(Economist,ETIIC)Maryla Maliszewska(Senior Economist,ETIRI)Jean Christophe Maur(Senior Economist,ETIRI)Maria Seara E Pereira(Consultant,ETIRI)Alex Pio(Extended Term Consultant,ETIMT)Cordula Rastogi(Senior Economist,ETIRI)Nadia Rocha(Senior Economist,ETIRI)Michele Ruta(Lead Economist,ETIRI)Danie

20、l Saslavsky(Senior Economist,ETIRI)Deborah Winkler(Senior Consultant,ETIRI)Lucie Wuester(Consultant,ETIRI).Executive SummaryThe war in Ukraine is an immense human tragedy for the people of Ukraine,but its economic implications are global.This instant report focuses on the direct impact of the war on

21、 world trade and investment.Key questions addressed in this study are:How will trade and welfare,especially of developing countries,be affected in the short run?Which sectors are being most disrupted?What are the implications for logistics networks,FDI,and global value chains(GVCs)?The war comes at

22、a difficult moment for the world economy.The recovery from the pandemic-induced recession is decelerating because of continued COVID-19 flareups and diminished policy support(World Bank,2022).Inflation is increasing in many countries,and large economies are increasing interest rates to reign it in.D

23、isruptions in world trade and investment will curb growth in developing countries and add to price pressures,especially if governments impose trade restrictions to shield their economies.This report identifies five direct trade and investment channels through which countries will be affected by the

24、war in Ukraine.These encompass disruptions to:(i)commodity markets(especially food and energy),(ii)logistic networks,(iii)supply chains,(iv)foreign direct investment,(v)specific sectors.From a development perspective,it is crucial to understand how these various factors play out and how they affect

25、individual economies.Trade in food and energy are feeling the most immediate impact of the war.Russia and Ukraine rank among the top seven global producers and exporters of wheat,corn,barley,sunflower seeds,and sunflower oil.Russia is also a major supplier of fossil fuels,such as crude oil and natur

26、al gas,in addition to fertilizer and agricultural commodities.Disruptions of these supplies are fueling a surge in prices,with negative consequences for global trade and welfare and asymmetric effects on exporting and importing countries.Exporters gain from higher commodity prices and increase produ

27、ction and shipments,replacing part of the decrease in exports from Ukraine and Russia.Importers are hurt twice:They both consume these commodities and use them as inputs to produce other goods and services for export.A Computable General Equilibrium(CGE)model quantifies these effects on trade and we

28、lfare.Global income drops by 0.7 percent,with low-income countries losing 1 percent,driven by a contraction in global exports(Figure 0.1).Manufacturing exporters such as Vietnam,Thailand,and Mexico see a sharp decline,especially in energy intensive sectors.Net exporters of crops,such as Turkey,Brazi

29、l,and India,and of fossil fuels,such as Nigeria and countries in the Middle East,see a surge in their exports,attenuating the negative effects of the war.6 FIGURE 0.1(a):Change in real income in selected countries and regions FIGURE 0.1(b):Change in exports relative to reference year as a share of r

30、eal GDP in the reference yearNote:ENVISAGE simulations.See chapter 1.Large energy and agricultural exporters could gainNet energy and agriculturalimporters are the mostvulnerable-2.0%-1.5%-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%WorldHigh Income CountriesLow Income CountriesTurkeyRest of ECASouth AfricaNigeriaRest

31、 of SSAChinaVietnamThailandRest of EAPBrazilMexicoRest of LACIndiaRest of SAREgypt,Arab Rep.Rest of MENAWestern EuropeUnited StatesRest of high-incomeAgricultureNatural ResourcesEITEnon-EITEServicesTotal7 FIGURE 0.2:International wheat prices and trade policy measuresSource:Chapter 2.The war and res

32、ulting sanctions have disrupted Russian and Ukrainian trade connectivity affecting the logistics of the broader region.Russias connections to European ports have been cut,and commodity exports to other destinations have been constrained.Ukraines Black Sea ports have been blockaded or occupied,leavin

33、g the country few routes for its commodity exports.The war brought reciprocal closures of air space between Russia and 36 countries,resulting in longer routes and higher prices for air freight between Europe and East Asia.Rail transit through Russia may be slowed by additional procedures to check fo

34、r sanctions compliance,and further rounds of sanctions could risk bringing it to a halt entirely.The role of rail routes in the movement of mechanical,electronics,automotive,and other goods between Europe and Asia (mainly China)is relatively small but has been growing in response to maritime shippin

35、g disruptions during the pandemic.Disruptions to global and regional supply chains have caused input shortages and price hikes.061218243036 60 80 100 120 140 160 180Jan-01-2022Jan-04-2022Jan-07-2022Jan-10-2022Jan-13-2022Jan-16-2022Jan-19-2022Jan-22-2022Jan-25-2022Jan-28-2022Jan-31-2022Feb-03-2022Feb

36、-06-2022Feb-09-2022Feb-12-2022Feb-15-2022Feb-18-2022Feb-21-2022Feb-24-2022Feb-27-2022Mar-02-2022Mar-05-2022Mar-08-2022Mar-11-2022Mar-14-2022Mar-17-2022Mar-20-2022Mar-23-2022N.of trade policiesPrice Index,Jan 2022=100WheatTrade MeasuresRussia invades Ukraine8 FIGURE 0.3:Russia as a seller,key sectors

37、 and products,and implications for supply chain partnersSource:Chapter 4.The war is expected to curb FDI in neighboring countries and in the energy sector.Armenia,Moldova,and the Kyrgyz Republic where more than 20 percent of inward FDI is from Russia could suffer from shrinking inflows of FDI and a

38、contraction in their existing stock,an increase in capital outflows,and losses on their outward FDI in Russia.European countries including Finland,Germany,and Norway have large investments in Russias energy sector,and Europe is highly Key Global/RegionalValue ChainsKey ProductsRussia as a sellerSect

39、orLargest direct partnersMost dependent partnersManyCHN,DEU,NDL,POL,BLRMNG,BLR,SVK,EST,KAZManyUSA,TUR,DEU,GBR,KORMNG,KAZ,KGZ,BLR,TJKManyITA,JPN,BLR,SVK,CZEBLR,SVK,EST,LVA,SRBFuelsCrude oilPetroleum productsNatural GasTransp.equipment(catalytic converters)USA,JPN,DEU,CHN,ITACAN,JPN,USA,ITA,KORTranspo

40、rt equipment,machineryTUR,USA,BLR,ITA,BELKAZ,BLR,KGZ,AZE,UZBElectronics,trans.equip,machineryCHN,DEU,TUR,JPN,USABLR,KAZ,ARM,UZB,AZEPalladiumIron and steelCopper,aluminumMetal(alloying),auto(batteries),electronicCHN,FIN,DEU,NLD,USAFIN,BLR,UKR,LVA,MDANickelMetalsAgribusinessBRA,USA,CHN,IND,MEXMNG,BLR,

41、AZE,KAZ,MDAFertilizersElectronicsBLR,KAZ,AZE,CHN,GEOBLR,ARM,GEO,TJK,KAZCell phones,receivers,etc.Transport equipment,machineryCHN,FIN,DEU,NLD,USAFIN,BLR,UKR,LVA,MDAMetal,autopartsBusiness services,agribus.,transportDEU,NLD,JPN,AUT,USA,FINLIT,LVA,EST,SLV,FINTransport,business serv.ChemicalsElectronic

42、sTransport EquipmentServices9 FIGURE 0.4:Russia and Ukraine in global FDI networks Source:Chapter 5.Tourism in developing countries will be hurt.Russia and Ukraine account for a large number of tourists in developing countries(ranked 6th and 38th globally in tourism expenditure).Countries including

43、Georgia,Moldova,Montenegro,and Turkey are highly dependent on tourists from Russia and Ukraine.The effects will also be felt outside the region.Countries that attracted large shares of tourists from Russia and Ukraine during the pandemic include Egypt,Tunisia,Thailand,Cuba,the Maldives,and Tanzania.

44、A decline in global tourism will at least temporarily stall the industrys post-pandemic recovery,as scheduled flights are disrupted and consumers await more certainty before booking.The wars long-term implications for global trade and investment will largely depend on how governments respond to the

45、changing geopolitical environment.As several observers have noted(see,among others,Posen,2022),the risk of a fragmented world trade and investment system has suddenly increased,and with it a reversal of globalization,which has been the engine of economic growth and development in the last 30 years.F

46、irms will respond to the shock by re-assessing security-related risks,possibly leading to changes in the structure of GVCs as firms move production away from countries they see as riskier.But given the capital in place,the cost of searching for alternatives,and factors such as wage differentials acr

47、oss countries,this process is likely to be gradual rather than sudden and affect different sectors and products differently.It will not result in a reversal of globalization,unless it is supported by pronounced government intervention.Giordani,P.E.,N.Rocha,M.Ruta(2016).Food prices and the multiplier

48、 effect of trade policy.Vol.101,102-122,Journal of International Economics.Posen,A.(2022).The End of Globalization?What Russias War in Ukraine Means for the World Economy.Foreign Affairs,March 17,2022.World Bank(2022).Global Economic Prospects:Slowing Growth,Rising Risks.World Bank,Washington DC,Jan

49、uary 2022.References1.10IntroductionMany countries are suffering serious economic consequences as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.Ukraine and Russia are major exporters of agricultural commodities and fossil fuels,and disruptions to supplies of these commodities and associated price spik

50、es are already being felt across the globe.As the Black Sea region is a large exporter of fertilizers,the resulting shortages and price increases could translate into lower crop yields in many regions.This in turn could lead to food prices reaching new highs.2 The Russian invasion has prompted an un