中国在欧洲的外国直接投资：2021更新（英）-德国墨卡托中国研究所-2022.4.pdf

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1、April 2022CHINESE FDI IN EUROPE 2021 UPDATEInvestments remain on downward trajectory Focus on venture capital Agatha Kratz(Rhodium Group)|Max J.Zenglein(MERICS)|Gregor Sebastian(MERICS)|Mark Witzke(Rhodium Group)A report by Rhodium Group and the Mercator Institute for China Studies(MERICS)MERICS REP

2、ORT|2MERICS Report|April 2022Building on a long-standing collaboration between Rhodium Group and MERICS,this report summarizes Chinas investment footprint in the EU-27 and the UK in 2021,analyzing the shifting patterns in Chinas FDI,as well as policy developments in Europe and China.ContentsExecutiv

3、e summary 31.Introduction:Chinas outbound investment stalled in 2021 42.Chinese FDI in Europe:2021 Trends 52.1 Chinese FDI in Europe remained at an 8-year low despite rebound 52.2 Hillhouse Capital mega-deal makes the Netherlands the top destination in Europe 62.3 Investment share of Chinas state-ow

4、ned companies drops to 20-year low 8 2.4 Bulk of investment concentrated on consumer goods and automotive 93.More greenfield,more venture capital more scrutiny 103.1 Greenfield becomes a major form of Chinese investment in Europe 103.2 Chinese venture capital investment in Europe more than doubles 1

5、23.3 European countries continue to tighten investment screening regimes 144.Outlook:Era of massive Chinese investment seems over for now 16The authors 18|3MERICS Report|April 2022 Chinese outbound investment to the rest of the world stalled in 2021.While overall global FDI rebounded strongly,Chines

6、e outbound FDI edged up by just 3 percent to USD 114 billion(EUR 96 billion).Meanwhile,Chinas global outbound M&A activity slipped in 2021 to a 14-year low,with completed M&A transactions totaling just EUR 20 billion,down 22 percent from an already weak 2020.Chinas FDI in Europe(EU-27 and the UK)inc

7、reased but remained on its multi-year downward trajectory.Last year,completed Chinese FDI in Europe in-creased 33 percent to EUR 10.6 billion,from EUR 7.9 billion in 2020.The increase was driven by two factors:a EUR 3.7 billion acquisition of the Philips home ap-pliance business by Hong Kong-based p

8、rivate equity firm Hillhouse Capital and record high greenfield investment of EUR 3.3 billion.Still,2021 was the second lowest year(above only 2020)for Chinas investment in Europe since 2013.The Netherlands received most Chinese investment,followed by Germany,France and the UK.Hillhouse Capitals tak

9、eover of the Philips business made the Netherlands the biggest destination for Chinese investment in 2021.Germany,France and the UK accounted for another 39 percent of total Chinese investment.The share of Chinese state-owned investors fell to a 20-year low in Europe.Compared with 2020,investment by

10、 state-owned enterprises(SOEs)decreased by 10 percent.Their share of total Chinese investment also reached its lowest point in 20 years,at 12 percent.SOE investment was concentrated in energy and infrastruc-ture,particularly in southern Europe.Consumer products and automotive were the top sectors.Du

11、e to the Hillhouse Capital acquisition,investment in consumer products surged to EUR 3.8 billion.Activity in automotive was driven by Chinese greenfield investments in electric vehicle(EV)batteries.Together,the two sectors accounted for 59 percent of total investment value.The next three biggest sec

12、tors were health,pharma and biotech;information and communications technology(ICT);and energy.The nature of Chinese investment in Europe is changing.After years of be-ing dominated by M&A,Chinese investment in Europe has become more focused on greenfield projects.In 2021,greenfield investment reache

13、d EUR 3.3 billion,the highest ever recorded value,making up almost a third of all Chinese FDI.Chinese venture capital(VC)investment is pouring into European tech start-ups.In 2021,Chinese VC investment in Europe more than doubled to the record level of EUR 1.2 billion.It was concentrated in the UK a

14、nd Germany,and focused on a handful sectors including e-commerce,fintech,gaming,AI and robotics.Chinese investment in Europe is unlikely to rebound in 2022.The Chinese gov-ernment is expected to stick to strict capital controls,financial deleveraging and Covid-19 restrictions.The war in Ukraine and

15、expanding screening regimes and scru-tiny of Chinese investment in the EU and the UK will create additional headwinds.Executive summary|4MERICS Report|April 20221.Introduction:Chinas outbound investment stalled in 20212021 saw a strong global recovery in foreign direct investment flows from exceptio

16、nally low levels in 2020.According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development(UNC-TAD),global direct investment flows rebounded by 77 percent to exceed pre-pandemic levels.Chinese global investment was an exception to this trend and stalled in 2021.According to official Chinese statis

17、tics,Chinas outbound non-financial investment increased by 3 per-cent only in 2021 to USD 114 billion(EUR 96 billion).Chinas global outbound M&A activ-ity slipped to a 14-year low in 2021,with completed mergers and acquisitions totaling just EUR 25 billion,down 9 percent from 2020 and 45 percent fro

18、m 2019.That Chinas global outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)did not recover was due to sever-al factors:Chinas overseas investment activity had been declining since 2016,due to domestic constraints on outbound capital flows and tightening scrutiny of Chinese investments abroad.The lack of a rec

19、overy is also likely linked to Chinas adherence to a zero-Covid strategy,which hindered cross-border travel and thus deal-making activities.Whats more,sharp competition for global assets in a booming M&A context likely put Chinese buyers at a dis-advantage due to their limited international experien

20、ce and emerging regulatory concerns.Exhibit 1Chinese global outbound investment remains lowFDI data in USD billion,GDP ratio in percentSources:Ministry of Commerce(MOFCOMs 2021 data are preliminary),Yahoo Finance,State Administration of Foreign Exchange(SAFE)MERICS/Rhodium GroupState Administration

21、of Foreign Exchange:Chinas global FDI assets under the balance of payments left axisMinistry of Commerce:Chinas outbound direct investment left axisValue of announced global M&A transactions by Chinese companies left axisChinas outbound direct investment(Ministry of Commerce)to GDP ratio right axis

22、State Administration of Foreign Exchange:Chinas global FDI assets under the balance of payments left axisMinistry of Commerce:Chinas outbound direct investment left axisValue of announced global M&A transactions by Chinese companies left axisChinas outbound direct investment(Ministry of Commerce)to

23、GDP ratio right axis State Administration of Foreign Exchange:Chinas global FDI assets under the balance of payments left axisMinistry of Commerce:Chinas outbound direct investment left axisValue of announced global M&A transactions by Chinese companies left axisChinas outbound direct investment(Min

24、istry of Commerce)to GDP ratio right axis State Administration of Foreign Exchange:Chinas global FDI assets under the balance of payments left axisMinistry of Commerce:Chinas outbound direct investment left axisValue of announced global M&A transactions by Chinese companies left axisChinas outbound

25、direct investment(Ministry of Commerce)to GDP ratio right axis 00.61.21.805010015020025030020122013201420152016201720182019202020211.00.80.8|5MERICS Report|April 20222.Chinese FDI in Europe:2021 Trends2.1 CHINESE FDI IN EUROPE REMAINED AT AN 8-YEAR LOW DESPITE REBOUNDWhile Chinas global outbound inv

26、estment did not recover in 2021,Chinese FDI in Europe rebounded,increasing 33 percent from a Covid-induced low point of EUR 7.9 billion in 2020 to EUR 10.6 billion in 2021(see exhibit 2).The rebound occurred despite continued outbound capital controls in China,pandemic-related travel restrictions,an

27、d a now fully operational EU FDI screening regime.However,Chinese investment in Europe remains at very low levels compared to the 2016 high of EUR 47 billion.Much of the 2021 increase was related to one very large transaction:The Hong Kong-based private equity firm Hillhouse Capital purchased Philip

28、s home appliances unit.This EUR 3.7 billion acquisition accounted for roughly one third of total Chinese investment in Eu-rope and was the sixth largest ever recorded Chinese investment in Europe.Single large deals like this in an environment of overall low investment volume make it difficult to ide

29、n-tify clear,long-lasting trends.Several other large acquisitions were announced in 2021 but did not go ahead.Gopher Investments shelved a multi-billion EUR bid for the British gambling software developer Playtech(although they still plan to acquire Playtechs financial trading division in 2022).Exhi

30、bit 2Source:Rhodium Group MERICS Chinas FDI into Europe remains stuck at low levelsAnnual value of completed transactions in Europe,in EUR billionM&AM&AGreenfieldGreenfieldChinese FDI in the EU fell further to a 5-year low Annual value of completed Chinese FDI transactions in the EU-28,EUR billion 0

31、5101520253035404550201220132014201520162017201820192020202112.07.715.426.947.447.440.020.315.17.97.910.67.77.7|6MERICS Report|April 2022Tencent saw its planned acquisition of British video game developer Sumo Group stall due to investment screening in the United States(the transaction will go ahead

32、in 2022).While Chinese M&A grew by 26 percent,accounting for 69 percent of the total(EUR 7.3 bil-lion),it remained below pre-pandemic levels.Greenfield investment was the real surprise,reaching a record high of EUR 3.3 billion(We discuss this development in chapter 3.1).2.2 HILLHOUSE CAPITAL MEGA-DE

33、AL MAKES THE NETHERLANDS THE TOP DESTINATION IN EUROPEThe EUR 3.7 billion takeover of Philips home appliance business by Hillhouse Capital made the Netherlands(and,incidentally,the Benelux)the top destination for Chinese investment in 2021,accounting for 35 percent of the total.Chinese investment,pa

34、rticularly greenfield investment in the automotive and ICT sectors,was also strong in Germany,France and the United Kingdom.The“Big Three”economies jointly accounted for 39 percent of the to-tal.This was driven by a recovery in Chinese investment in the UK,from a ten year low of EUR 1.4 billion in 2

35、020 to EUR 2.1 billion in 2021.In contrast,investment in France and Exhibit 3Source:Rhodium Group.“Benelux”includes Belgium,Netherlands,and Luxembourg.“Eastern Europe”includes Austria,Bulgaria,Czech Republic,Hungary,Poland,Romania,and Slovakia.“Southern Europe”includes Croatia,Cyprus,Greece,Italy,Ma

36、lta,Portugal,Slovenia,and Spain.“Northern Europe”includes Estonia,Denmark,Finland,Ireland,Latvia,Lithuania,and Sweden.MERICS/Rhodium Group BeneluxBeneluxEastern EuropeEastern EuropeSouthern EuropeSouthern EuropeNorthern EuropeNorthern EuropeFranceFranceGermanyGermanyUKUK“Big 3“Big 3“0102030405060708

37、090100121314151617181920211141410365201419261031118Northern EuropeBeneluxEastern Europe“Big 3“FranceGermanyUKSouthern Europe33Benelux gains largest share of Chinese FDI due to Philips dealComparison by country groups,in percent share|7MERICS Report|April 2022Germany dropped from EUR 872 million in 2

38、020 to EUR 509 million,and from EUR 2 bil-lion to EUR 1.5 billion(the lowest value since 2015)respectively.Investment in Southern Europe(EUR 1 billion)increased by 36 percent,propelled by Chi-nese state-owned enterprise investments in Spains energy sector(EUR 600 million).In-vestment in Eastern Euro

39、pe(EUR 385 million)decreased 74 percent,after a strong run in 2020 due to one large acquisition in Poland.France15.7Spain5.5Italy16.0Germany30.1Denmark1.2Estonia0.2Latvia 20|8MERICS Report|April 2022Investment in Northern Europe remained stable at EUR 1.2 billion,on the back of strong Chinese invest

40、ment in Finland(at EUR 891 million).The biggest deal in the region was Shenzhen Mindrays purchase of Hytest Invest OY,a Finnish medical device maker,for EUR 560 million.Albeit at a low level,Chinese investment in Ireland(EUR 238 million)reached its second highest value ever,primarily due to ByteDanc

41、es(Tiktok)ongoing investments in a local data center.2.3 INVESTMENT SHARE OF CHINAS STATE-OWNED COMPANIES DROPS TO 20-YEAR LOWSolidifying a four-year trend,private companies continued to dominate Chinese investment in Europe in 2021.At EUR 9.3 billion,their investments accounted for 88 percent of th

42、e total,compared to an already high 83 percent share in 2020.Investments by state-owned companies decreased by 10 percent in volume,from EUR 1.4 billion in 2020 to EUR 1.3 billion in 2021.Their 12 percent share of total investment was the lowest since 2001.Exhibit 5*State-owned companies refer to fi

43、rms that are at least 20 percent owned and controlled by the government or a state-owned enterprise(SOE),at either the central,ministerial,sovereign,or provincial level.Source:Rhodium Group MERICS/Rhodium Group Chinese SOEs investment share declines furtherFDI by investor type,in EUR billion,percent

44、 shareState-owned investment*left axisState-owned investment*left axisPrivate investment left axisPrivate investment left axisState-owned investments share of the total right axisState-owned investments share of the total right axis01020304050607080901000510152025303540455020122013201420152016201720

45、182019202020218.14.73.05.010.410.216.734.013.513.027.011.09.24.3673967622868462918121.41.41.31.33.99.36.610.8|9MERICS Report|April 2022State-owned enterprises remained focused on acquisitions.Their biggest deals were con-centrated on energy and infrastructure sectors in Southern Europe.In Spain,the

46、power company China Three Gorges purchased renewable energy assets for over EUR 500 million(and already announced plans to purchase a Spanish wind park portfolio for EUR 305 mil-lion in 2022).In Greece,shipping conglomerate COSCO acquired additional shares in the port of Piraeus for EUR 128 million,

47、bringing its ownership up to 67 percent overall.That acquisition came as part of an agreement that required COSCO to also invest EUR 294 million as greenfield investment to upgrade the ports terminals.Even though COSCO has only invested about a third of that sum to date,the acquisition was allowed t

48、o go ahead.In Portugal,China Communications Construction Company bought 23 percent of Mota-En-gil Group the countrys largest public works group with business in Latin America,Africa and Eastern Europe for EUR 171 million.2.4 BULK OF INVESTMENT CONCENTRATED ON CONSUMER GOODS AND AUTOMOTIVE In terms o

49、f sectors,the Hillhouse Capital deal pushed consumer products and services(EUR 3.8 billion)to the top,with 36 percent of the total.Automotive(EUR 2.4 billion)came in second,accounting for 23 percent of all Chinese investments.While Automotive has long been a key sector for Chinese investment in Euro

50、pe,this year was different in two ways:most of that investment took the form of greenfield projects,instead of acquisitions as in previous years;and most of that investment went to support the new energy vehicle industry,via battery factories(instead of investments in traditional internal combustion