标普《2021年年中全球银行业国家展望：诱人的稳定迹象》-113正式版.ppt

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1、Global Banking Country Outlook Midyear 2021:Tantalizing Signs Of StabilityJuly 22,2021PRIMARY CONTACTGavin GunningMelbourne+61-3-9631-Emmanuel VollandParis+33-14-420-Alexandre BirryLondon+44-20-7176-SECONDARY CONTACTBrendan BrowneNew York+1-212-438-Cynthia Cohen FreueBuenos Aires+54-11-4891-Elena Ip

2、arraguirreMadrid+34-91-389-Osman SattarLondon+44-20-7176-Mohamed DamakDubai+9-714-372-Contacts continued on page Banking OutlookKey TakeawaysBanks recent stabilizing will likely continue,with our rating outlooks now largely mirroring thedistribution seen just before the pandemic.Economic disruption

3、from COVID-19 on corporates and households will continue to be a key risk forbanks.Nine of the top 20 banking systems should recover to pre-COVID-19 levels of financial strength by2022;the rest wont recover until 2023 or beyond.The global banking sector is clawing its way back to normalcy.Authoritie

4、s strong support forhouseholds and corporates over the course of COVID-19 has clearly helped banks.Lenderswere also well positioned going into the pandemic,after banks bolstered their capital,provisioning,funding,and liquidity buffers in the wake of the global financial crisis.S&PGlobal Ratings expe

5、cts normalization to be the dominant theme of the next 12 months,asrebounding economies,vaccinations,and state measures help banks bounce back much morequickly than was conceivable in the dark days of 2020.A snapshot of our ratings and outlook distributions reveals how banks are recovering fromCOVID

6、-19.Our net negative outlook for the global banking sector improved to 1%in June 2021from 31%in October 2020.As at June 25,2021,about 13%of bank outlooks were negative.This is significantly lower than October 2020 when about one-third of rating outlooks on bankswere negative.About 75%of rating outlo

7、oks on banks are now stable(up from about 65%inOctober 2020),with about 12%now positive(compared with 2%in October 2020).Ourconfidence is increasing that this stabilizing trend-while inching along-will persist.We notealso that some revision of outlooks to stable were accompanied by rating downgrades

8、(seechart 1).Chart 1Negative Outlooks Retreating For Global BanksGlobal banks outlook distribution evolutionCreditWatch negativeNegative outlookStable31-Dec-20194-Jun-202016-Oct-202028-Feb-20213-May-20218-Jun-202125-Jun-21Positive outlookCreditWatch positive0%20%40%60%80%100%Note:The chart is based

9、on outlooks or CreditWatch listings assigned to all banks we rate globally.Source:S&P Global R 22,20212Global Banking OutlookOur Banking Industry Country Risk Assessments(BICRAs)are likewise pointing towardmore stable trends.BICRAs are a key input into bank ratings and establish the anchor forbank r

10、atings in each jurisdiction in which they were assigned.During the full onset of COVID-19 between March 2020 and December 2020,our BICRAs or the economic trends or industrytrends implicit in our BICRA analysis were negatively revised over 40 times across the 86banking jurisdictions globally where we

11、 rate banks.By contrast,between Jan.1,2021,andJune 30,2021,we made five negative revisions of BICRAs or trends,but 14 revisions topositive from stable,or to stable from negative(see chart 2).Chart 2Global BICRA Developments In 2021BICRA-Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment.Data as of July 16,202

12、1.Source:S&P Global R 22,20213Global Banking OutlookWe see less downside risk now than compared with six to nine months ago,as economiesrebound,vaccinations kick in,and banks feel the effects of state intervention.With novaccine in October 2020,we believed at the time that 2021 could be a very diffi

13、cult year forbanks.State intervention on behalf of corporates and households-including significant fiscaland monetary policy support-is working and banks have benefited.Withdrawal of support is inevitable and is well underway in many jurisdictions.Our basecase is that the global banking sector will

14、continue to slowly stabilize as the economicrebound gains momentum and as support is gradually withdrawn.Should a re-intensificationof risks occur,more support from authorities for the real economy would be required.This inturn would help banks maintain a stabilizing trajectory.Strategies and tactic

15、s to combatCOVID-19 vary enormously across banking jurisdictions.This includes the progress withvaccination campaigns that affects a range of factors,particularly trade and travel.Banks-Not Yet Out Of The WoodsWhile trends are progressively improving for banks,the pandemic has caused a significantin

16、crease in bank credit losses.In some cases,banking sectors will take years to restore theirfinancial strength back to pre-COVID levels of 2019.The playing field is uneven.In somebanking jurisdictions,especially in developed markets,our loss expectations looking out to2021 and 2022 are notably lower

17、compared with our views 12 months ago.By contrast,financial strength in some emerging markets may be more vulnerable.Our recent European bank rating actions broadly reflect our global views.On June 24,2021,we announced that we had reviewed our ratings on about 60 major European banking groups,revisi

18、ng the rating outlooks on many to stable from negative.We now see the asset qualitychallenge as manageable as risks hitting banks ease,and that capitalization will likely remainrobust.In a smaller number of cases we downgraded banks.Several points are noteworthy:Stabilizing bank credit in Europe,a l

19、ow-profit banking region(somewhat similar to Japan)that may be a bellwether for the move toward ratings stability elsewhere in a post-vaccination world,particularly in developed banking jurisdictions.Indeed,this trend isalready underway.Our ratings are forward-looking and our base case for most Euro

20、pean banks is that bankcredit will continue to progressively stabilize.This also covers our view on institutions inthe U.S.,Australia,and other developed markets where we have recently revised ratingoutlooks to stable or positive.The challenge for many banks,however,where outlooks have recently reve

21、rted to stable,issolidification at the current rating level.While not our base case,an intensification of riskfactors(see key risks section)could cause negative trends to reemerge.Financial strengthin the global banking sector is at a delicate stage while entities wait for a full economicrecovery.Ba

22、nks will also need to make significant structural changes to adapt to a post-vaccination world.We note a recent re-intensification of economic risks in New Zealand,a country by globalstandards barely affected by COVID-19.In New Zealand,economic trends recentlyreverted to negative from stable because

23、 of soaring house prices.Instructive is that thisaction reversed our previous move of economic trends to stable,from negative,only a fewmonths prior.We now have a negative outlook bias globally for banks of about 1%.Currently about 13%ofbanks globally are on negative outlook(see chart 1)which is wel

24、l down from 31%in October2020.We query whether,over the next 12 months,this 13%level will decline much further.This is because there typically is a small percentage of banks persistently on negative 22,20214Global Banking Outlookbecause of idiosyncratic factors not driven by economic or credit facto

25、rs(such as by mergersand acquisitions).Also,there may be some rigidity in negative outlooks related to bankshaving difficulty shaking off the effects of COVID or other negative factors.Outlooks also mayremain volatile across the global banking sector,with the economic recovery in the earlystages,vac

26、cine rollout varying greatly by jurisdiction,and with an uncertain pathwayassociated with COVID variants.Credit Losses Are Stubbornly High Across Much Of The WorldOur latest forward estimates for credit losses reflect our view that the banking sectorrecovery will take time.Globally,we forecast that

27、even out to year-end 2022,bank creditlosses will remain materially elevated above pre-COVID-19 levels in some jurisdictions(seechart 3).The notable exception is North America,where recovery should be slightly better thanpre-pandemic levels by year-end 2021,and Latin America,for which we anticipateno

28、rmalization be to better than pre-pandemic levels by year-end 2022.In the U.S.the early recognition of credit losses as well as the positive effects on assetquality from the strong economic recovery is driving credit losses lower.Brazil will likelydrive a fast recovery in credit losses in Latin Amer

29、ica in 2022.This due to Brazils highprovisioning coverage prior to the pandemic,robust loan-loss provisions raised in 2020,healthy margins that helps banks recognize loan losses sooner,and the short-term nature ofloans in the country.The loan portfolio mix has shifted over the past years toward less

30、 riskylending.We expect loan losses as a percentage of loans in 2022 to be lower than historicallevels.We have revised downward our expectations for global credit losses to about US$1.6 trillionin 2021-2022,from about US$1.8 trillion.Our tempered views on forward credit losses isconsistent with rece

31、nt emerging stable rating outlook trends(see A Little More Clarity,ALittle Less Gloom:An Update On Our Bank Credit Loss Forecasts,published July 15,2021,onRatingsDirect).Chart 3Global Credit Cost Ratio Rose Sharply In 2020,And Will RemainElevated Over 2021-2022Changes in credit cost ratios from 2019

32、 levels,by region35030025020015010050Increase/decrease2019 actual0(50)RoWLATAMWENAMAPAC(ex-China)ChinaGlobalAPAC-Asia-Pacific.NAM-North America.WE-Western Europe.LATAM-Latin America.RoW-Rest of the world.Source:S&P Global R 22,20215Global Banking OutlookSome Banking Jurisdictions Will Need To Wait T

33、ill 2023 To Return ToPre-COVID-19 Financial StrengthWe retain our view that the recovery of banking jurisdictions globally to pre-COVID-19levels will be gradual.For 11 of the top 20 banking jurisdictions we estimate that a return topre-COVID-19 levels of financial strength wont occur until 2023 or b

34、eyond.For the other nine,we estimate that recovery may occur by year-end 2022(see chart 4).For the U.S.,the U.K.and Australia,recovery is emerging sooner than we had anticipated inthe fourth quarter of 2020.We now believe these banking jurisdictions will join the early-exiter banking jurisdictions,w

35、ith recovery to pre-COVID-19 2019 financial strength in 2022.We retain our view that recovery for Canada,Singapore,Hong Kong,South Korea,China,andSaudi Arabia will also likely occur in 2022.Numerous other banking jurisdictions continue to be on track to recover to pre-COVID-19levels by 2023.This gro

36、up includes Brazil,France,Germany,Indonesia,Italy,Japan,Russia,and Spain.Meanwhile,the Indian,Mexican,and South African banking systems may take a bitlonger to recover.Equally,we note that trends in the South African banking system improvedin 2021 after an extremely difficult 2020.Compared with econ

37、omic recovery,the banking sector recovery will take longer.There is aninevitable lag effect on banks credit profiles as household and corporate borrowers recoverfrom the pandemic.Banks need time to work through their asset quality difficulties.Whilebank profitability will unquestionably remain muted

38、 in the continuing ultra-low interest rateenvironment,lenders are better capitalized,more liquid,and less leveraged compared withwhere they were in 2009(the other significant recent downturn affecting banks globally).Chart 4Recovery Prospects For Financial Strength Varies Across GeographiesNote:The

39、estimated time to recovery considers forward estimates of systemic and bank-specific credit factors guided byBICRA and entity-specific rating actions to-date.Time periods are in years based on full calendar year.All information isbased on analysts estimates.Banking sector recovery prospects for earl

40、y-exiter jurisdictions are sooner,for late-exiterjurisdictions they are later,while the recovery prospects for mid-exiter jurisdictions are in between.The estimated effectis driven mainly by COVID-19 and other market stresses.*We now expect that the banking systems in bold font willrecover sooner th

41、an we previously estimated.e-Estimate.Source:S&P Global R 22,20216Global Banking OutlookWe are watching five key risks:Key Risk No.1:Slow Vaccination Rollouts And New Variants DisruptEconomiesThe credit narrative for COVID-19 has morphed over the past six months from the number ofinfections to the n

42、umber of vaccinations and variants.We are assessing the implications ofthis for banks.Economic disruptions for households and corporates should ease as theeconomic recovery takes hold(see table 1).This should drive the trend for ratings outlooks onbanks to move to stable from negative.Greater confid

43、ence in an enduring bank stabilization will only be likely when thedistribution of vaccines is widespread,particularly as new and more contagious variantsbreak out.Emerging market banking systems are vulnerable.Vaccinations(see chart 5)areplaying catch-up to high infection rates(see chart 6)in some

44、emerging markets,often due tolimited government and health resources.COVID cases continues to vary significantly acrosscountries(see chart 6).Table 1GDP Growth ForecastsCurrent forecast(%)20202021202220232024U.S.(3.5)6.73.72.61.8EurozoneChina(6.7)2.34.48.32.59.57.04.73.75.94.55.12.17.85.22.12.54.32.

45、25.01.05.71.92.22.03.71.64.80.96.51.62.32.03.3JapanIndia*U.K.(4.7)(7.3)(9.8)(4.4)(3.0)(3.4)BrazilRussiaWorld*Fiscal year begins April of reference year to March the following year.Derived using purchasing power parity exchangerates.Source:S&P Global E 22,20217Global Banking OutlookChart 5Vaccination

46、s Are A Key Factor In Economies RecoveryCOVID-19 vaccine doses per 100 peoplePeople partlyvaccinated per hundredCanadaU.K.People fully vaccinatedper hundredSingaporeItalySpainGermanyU.S.FranceSaudi ArabiaBrazilHong KongSouth KoreaJapanMexicoAustraliaIndiaRussiaIndonesiaSouth Africa020406080100Note:D

47、ata as of July 11,2021.Showing closest available data point if no data available for July 11,2021.Source:Our World In D 22,20218Global Banking OutlookChart 6COVID Continues To Weigh On Countries120,0003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000500Total cases per million(left scale)100,00080,00060,00040,00020,000-Tota

48、l deaths permillion(right scale)-Note:Data as of July 11,2021.Showing closest available data point if no data available for July 11,2021.Source:Our World In Data.Key Risk No.2:Surge In Leverage And High Corporate InsolvenciesHigher leverage and insolvencies remain a key risk for banks.Some corporate

49、 sectors haveexperienced no credit deterioration,such as grocery and essential retail,and technology-software,while other corporate sectors are recovering sooner than previously expected.Stillother sectors,however,such as autos,hotels and airlines wont likely recover until 2023 orbeyond(see chart 7,

50、which shows the timeframe of recovery for North American corporates,and COVID-19 Heat Map:Pent-Up Demand And Supply Shortages Further Improve RecoveryProspects For Credit Quality,June 8,2021).Slowly recovering sectors will constrain therecovery of banks credit metrics.This is particularly true for m