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1、FROM SAFETY NET TO SOLID GROUNDRESEARCH REPORT2021 Poverty ProjectionsAssessing the Impact of Benefits and Stimulus MeasuresLaura WheatonJuly 2021Linda GiannarelliIlham DehryABOUT THE URBAN INSTITUTEThe nonprofit Urban Institute is a leading research organization dedicated to developing evidence-bas

2、ed insightsthat improve peoples lives and strengthen communities.For 50 years,Urban has been the trusted source forrigorous analysis of complex social and economic issues;strategic advice to policymakers,philanthropists,andpractitioners;and new,promising ideas that expand opportunities for all.Our w

3、ork inspires effective decisionsthat advance fairness and enhance the well-being of people and places.Copyright July 2021.Urban Institute.Permission is granted for reproduction of this file,with attribution to theUrban Institute.Cover image by Tim Meko.ContentsAcknowledgmentsiv2021 Poverty Projectio

4、ns:Assessing the Impact of Benefits and Stimulus Measures2021 Poverty Projections13COVID Relief Policies Included in the EstimatesMethods for Creating the Estimates10121417182526Effect of Benefits and COVID Policies on PovertyWhy Do Antipoverty Effects Vary?Program Effects in 2018 and 2021Individual

5、 Program EffectsConclusionsAppendix:Additional TablesNotes2934394041ReferencesAbout the AuthorsStatement of IndependenceAcknowledgmentsThis report was funded by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.The views expressed do notnecessarily reflect the views of the Foundation.The views expressed are those

6、of the authors and should not be attributed to the Robert WoodJohnson Foundation or to the Urban Institute,its trustees,or its funders.Funders do not determineresearch findings or the insights and recommendations of Urban experts.Further information on theUrban Institutes funding principles is avail

7、able at urban.org/fundingprinciples.The authors gratefully acknowledge the large team that designed and implemented the manypolicy simulations underlying these estimates,including Sarah Minton,Joyce Morton,Kelly Dwyer,Paul Johnson,Sarah Knowles,Danielle Kwon,Elaine Maag,Katie Shantz,Silke Taylor,and

8、 KevinWerner.We also owe thanks to Jeffrey Passel for developing the 2021 population weightadjustments;to Janet Holtzblatt,Jack Smalligan,and Wayne Vroman for advising on policy changes;to staff of the California Legislative Analysts Office and the Public Policy Institute of California forinformatio

9、n on California policies;to Ed Bolen and Brynne Keith-Jennings at the Center on Budgetand Policy Priorities for information about state Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program waivers,and to Gregory Acs,Sarah Minton,and Elaine Waxman for support in developing the assumptions andfor their comments

10、on earlier drafts.ivACKNOWLEDGMENTS2021 Poverty Projections:Assessingthe Impact of Benefits and StimulusMeasuresAt the midpoint of 2021,understanding the extent of need among Americas families presents uniquechallenges.On the one hand,the economy is improving,employment is increasing,two additionalr

11、ounds of stimulus checks have been distributed,advance child tax credits are about to begin,andmany pandemic-related benefits remain in place.Fewer people than in December 2020 report thatthey sometimes or often do not have enough to eat or that they are behind in their rent.1 On the otherhand,the n

12、umber of jobs in the US economy in June 2021 was 6 million lower than in December 2019(before the COVID-19 pandemic hit the US),2 no new rounds of stimulus checks are planned,enhanced unemployment benefits are scheduled to end on September 6(and earlier in many states),atemporary increase in the max

13、imum Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program(SNAP)benefit willend in September,and SNAP emergency allotments are ceasing in some states.We previously projected that the American Rescue Plan,enacted in March 2021,would reducethe 2021 annual poverty rate from 13.7 to 8.7 percent(Wheaton et al.2021).

14、We now project a 2021poverty rate of 7.7 percent.The revised projection accounts for improvements in the economy,incorporates updated state-level information on pandemic-related policies,and improves the methodfor weighting the data to reflect 2021.Both the earlier poverty projections and these upda

15、tedprojections use the Supplemental Poverty Measure(SPM),which allows a more comprehensiveassessment of families economic well-being than the official poverty measure.The projections,developed using the Urban Institutes Analysis of Transfers,Taxes,and Income Security(ATTIS)model,take into account ex

16、pected levels of employment and income in 2021,safety-net benefits,taxes andtax credits,state“back to work”bonuses,and federal and state stimulus checks.The projections arean annual measure and do not reflect the increased hardship that some families may experiencetoward the end of 2021 once the sti

17、mulus checks have been spent,federal pandemic unemploymentbenefits end,and some pandemic-related SNAP benefit increases are scaled back.We present the updated 2021 projections by key characteristics,examine how much governmentbenefits reduce the poverty rate,and consider reasons why some subgroups o

18、f people may be morelikely than others to have their incomes raised above the poverty threshold by government benefits.The 2021 poverty projections include the following:Using the SPM,the annual poverty rate projection for 2021,7.7 percent,is well below therate of 13.9 percent that we estimate for 2

19、018 with the same methods.The projected percentage of people in deep poverty in 2021(that is,with family income lessthan half the poverty threshold)is 2.6 percent,compared with 4.2 percent in 2018.The projected poverty rates are lowest for children(5.6 percent),higher for adults ages 18 to64(8.1 per

20、cent),and highest for people age 65 and older(9.2 percent).The 2021 poverty rate is projected to be higher for Black,non-Hispanic people(9.2 percent),Hispanic people(11.8 percent),and non-Hispanic Asian American and Pacific Islanders,orAAPIs(10.8 percent),than for white,non-Hispanic people(5.8 perce

21、nt).3Projected poverty rates vary across the states.For example,the projected 2021 child povertyrate ranges from 1.9 percent in Maine to 8.8 percent in Delaware and Florida.Considering the impact of government benefits on the poverty rate,our key findings are as follows:We project that without any b

22、enefits from unemployment insurance(UI),government means-tested programs(either standard benefits or benefits increased because of the pandemic),pandemic-related stimulus payments or state payments,or the advance child tax credit,the2021 poverty rate would be 23.1 percent.The combined effect of all

23、the benefits(UI,means-tested benefits,refundable tax credits,federal stimulus checks,the advance child tax credit,and state payments)reduces that rate 67 percent to 7.7 percent,keeping nearly 50 millionAmericans out of poverty in 2021.The federal stimulus checks have a larger antipoverty impact than

24、 any of the other programs;if all other programs were in place but the stimulus checks had not been paid,we project 12.4million more people would be in poverty in 2021.SNAP alone keeps 7.9 million people out ofpoverty in 2021,and UI benefits lower the number in poverty by 6.7 million(assuming alloth

25、er programs are in place).Considering results by age group,the combined benefits have the largest impact on children,reducing their projected 2021 poverty rate 81 percent relative to what it would be withoutany benefits(from 30.1 percent to 5.6 percent).Considering results by race and ethnicity,the

26、benefits have the largest impact on Black non-Hispanic people(reducing their 2021 projected poverty rate 74 percent)and the smallestimpact on AAPIs(reducing their 2021 projected poverty rate 54 percent).The smaller22021 POVERTY PROJECTIONSreduction in poverty for AAPIs is likely because of a combina

27、tion of factors related togeographic location and other demographic characteristics.Focusing on UI benefits and means-tested benefits(including their pandemic expansions butomitting the pandemic-related stimulus checks,state payments,and advance child tax credits)these programs reduced the projected

28、 2021 poverty rate from 23.1 percent to 12.6 percent.These programs also had a large impact before the pandemic,but it was not as large asprojected for 2021.We estimate that UI benefits and means-tested benefits reduced the2018 poverty rate from 20.3 percent to 13.9 percent.2021 Poverty ProjectionsO

29、ur poverty projections use an expanded poverty measure that considers not only a familys cashincome but also their tax payments,child care and other work-related expenses,medical out-of-pocket expenses,tax credits,in-kind benefits such as housing subsidies and nutrition help,andstimulus checks(Fox 2

30、020).This metric is the Supplemental Poverty Measure,or SPM.The SPM notonly uses a broader definition of income than the official poverty measure,it also uses a differentthreshold(or“poverty line”)to determine if a family is in poverty.The SPM uses a poverty thresholdthat reflects actual spending on

31、 food,clothing,shelter,and utilities plus a small amount for otherspending,at between the 30th to 36th percentile of the spending distribution based on data forfamilies with two children.The SPM threshold is adjusted by the number of adults and children in thefamily and whether the family rents thei

32、r home,owns without a mortgage,or owns with a mortgage,The threshold is further adjusted to reflect differences in median rent for two-bedroom units acrossmajor metropolitan areas and for the remaining grouped metropolitan areas and nonmetropolitanareas within each state.To develop the 2021 projecte

33、d thresholds,we begin with the 2019 SPM thresholds developed bythe Bureau of Labor Statistics for renters and for owners with and without a mortgage,adjust forprojected inflation between 2019 and 2021,apply the Census Bureaus adjustments for family size andnumber of children,and apply the geographic

34、 adjustments developed by the Census Bureau.4 We thenassign the thresholds to families in the projected 2021 data.When averaged nationally,the projectedthreshold is$13,667 for a one-person family,$20,669 for a family with one adult and one child,and$30,232 for a family with two adults and two childr

35、en.The projected thresholds for a family with twoadults and two children range from a low of$21,001 for a family that lives in a nonmetropolitan area ofArkansas and owns their home without a mortgage to a high of$47,134 for a family that lives in the SanJoseSunnyvaleSanta Clara,California,metropolit

36、an area and has a mortgage.2021 POVERTY PROJECTIONS3Overall,we project that 7.7 percent of people will have family resources below the SPM thresholdin 2021(figure 1).The projected poverty rates are lowest for children(5.6 percent)and highest forpeople age 65 and older(9.2 percent).The 2021 projected

37、 poverty rate is substantially lower than the13.9 percent poverty rate for 2018(table A.1),reflecting the effect of stimulus checks and othergovernment benefits in counteracting the effects of the pandemic recession.5FIGURE 1Projected 2021 SPM Poverty Rates by AgePercentageTotalUnder 1818 to 647.75.

38、68.165 or older9.2Source:Urban Institute projections as of July 2021,created by the ATTIS model applied to the 2018 American CommunitySurvey data with employment,population,and incomes projected to 2021.Note:ATTIS=Analysis of Transfers,Taxes,and Income Security Model;SPM=Supplemental Poverty Measure

39、.Poverty ismeasured with the SPM;we generally follow US Census Bureau methods for applying the SPM to American Community Surveydata but use benefits and taxes simulated by ATTIS.As shown in figure 2,the projected percentage of white,non-Hispanic people in poverty(5.8percent)is lower than for Black,n

40、on-Hispanic people(9.2 percent),AAPIs(10.8 percent),and Hispanicpeople(11.8 percent).Black and Hispanic people were more likely than white,non-Hispanic people tolose their jobs during the pandemic.6 The higher projected poverty rates of Black and Hispanic peoplerelative to white non-Hispanic people

41、also reflect historical disparities among these groups.7 Althoughthe AAPI poverty rate is typically lower than the Black non-Hispanic poverty rate,we project thatAAPIs will be less likely than people in other groups to be removed from poverty by governmentbenefits in 2021.8 As a result,the projected

42、 2021 AAPI poverty rate is slightly higher than for Blacknon-Hispanic people.However,both groups have projected poverty rates well below the 2018 levelsof 16.6 percent for AAPIs and 19.2 percent for Black non-Hispanic people.People who live in a household containing a person who is projected to be u

43、nemployed for atleast half the year have a higher projected poverty rate(11.6 percent)than those who live in ahousehold projected to have less unemployment or no unemployment(7.0 percent;figure 3).42021 POVERTY PROJECTIONSFIGURE 2Projected 2021 SPM Poverty Rates by Race and EthnicityPercentageTotal7

44、.7White,non-HispanicBlack,non-HispanicHispanic5.89.211.8AAPI,non-Hispanic10.8Source:Urban Institute projections as of July 2021,created by the ATTIS model applied to the 2018 American CommunitySurvey data with employment,population,and incomes projected to 2021.Note:AAPI=Asian American or Pacific Is

45、lander;ATTIS=Analysis of Transfers,Taxes,and Income Security Model;SPM=Supplemental Poverty Measure.Poverty is measured with the SPM;we generally follow US Census Bureau methods forapplying the SPM to American Community Survey data but use benefits and taxes simulated by ATTIS.FIGURE 3Projected 2021

46、 SPM Poverty Rates by Whether Someone in the Household is Unemployed for atLeast Six Months of 2021PercentageTotalYesNo7.711.67.0Source:Urban Institute projections as of July 2021,created by the ATTIS model applied to the 2018 American CommunitySurvey data with employment,population,and incomes proj

47、ected to 2021.Note:ATTIS=Analysis of Transfers,Taxes,and Income Security Model;SPM=Supplemental Poverty Measure.Poverty ismeasured with the SPM;we generally follow US Census Bureau methods for applying the SPM to American Community Surveydata but use benefits and taxes simulated by ATTIS.People are

48、counted as unemployed for six months or more if they appearedto be not working and looking for work for at least six months in the original survey data or if they were identified as losing theirjob due to the recession and being unemployed for at least six months in 2021.In official unemployment sta

49、tistics,some peoplewho lost their jobs could be classified as discouraged workers or no longer in the labor force.2021 POVERTY PROJECTIONS5We also project the numbers of people at different points in the income distribution relative tothe SPM poverty threshold.About a third of the people with resour

50、ces below the SPM povertythreshold(2.6 percent of all people)are projected to be in“deep poverty,”meaning that their familyresources are less than half of the SPM poverty threshold(table 1).This is lower than in 2018,when4.2 percent of people were in deep poverty(table A.1).We project that children