NOKIA最新风险管理(英文版).pptx

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1、HKK 12/20/20231Nokia Mikko RouttiMikko RouttiDirector,Risk ManagementNokia CorporationRisk ManagementHKK 12/20/20232Nokia Mikko RouttiMain Themes of Presentationlscope of presentation:business risk(widely)lour philosophy about risk managementlwhere we are today on the journey of ERMlhow to do this i

2、n our organisationlbalance between practical,value-based and analytical,fact-based thinkinglwhat kind of methods and tools we use(e.g)lhow do we and others communicate about thisHKK 12/20/20233Nokia Mikko Routti It is one thing to set up a mathematical model that appears to explain everything.But wh

3、en we face the struggle of daily life,of constant trial and error,the abiguity of the facts as well as the power of the human heartbeat can obliterate the model in short order.Peter L.Bernstein:Against the GodsPeter L.Bernstein:Against the Gods-The Remarkable story of Risk-The Remarkable story of Ri

4、skHKK 12/20/20234Nokia Mikko Routti“We are not just adding all of these risks together.We are creating a probabilistic view of how much capital is actually necessary.”-Rick Buy,Chief Risk Officer,Enron“We review how good it can get,we review how bad it can get,and every place in between.”-Rick Cause

5、y,EVP and Chief Accounting Officer,Enron HKK 12/20/20235Nokia Mikko RouttiWhat does risk appetite mean in practice?Are we focusing on opportunity?Is there a clear view of the appetite for risk?Is there balance in risks and rewards?(i.e.high risks vs low rewards)Where should most of managements effor

6、t be directed?A Generic Business Risk ContinuumOpportunityUncertaintyHazardCompliance And PreventionOperating PerformanceStrategic InitiativesKey Questions to Consider.EnvironmentHealth&safetySupply chainSoftwareProduct creationHKK 12/20/20236Nokia Mikko RouttiRISK UNIVERSEHKK 12/20/20237Nokia Mikko

7、 RouttiHKK 12/20/20238Nokia Mikko RouttiHow does risk manifest itself?Fortune 1000 Group AnalysisOne hundred(10%)of the Fortune 1000 companies suffered a loss of over 25%of shareholder value within one monthCost OverrunsAccounting irregularitiesManagement ineffective-nessSupply Chain IssuesCompetiti

8、ve PressureM&A Integration ProblemsMis-aligned ProductsCustomer Pricing PressureLoss of Key CustomerSupplier ProblemsR&D DelaysCustomer Demand Shortfall%of top 100Regulatory ProblemsStrategicOperationalFinancialHazardForeign Macro-Economic IssuesInterest Rate Fluct-uationHigh Input Comm-odity PriceL

9、aw-suitsNatural Disasters58%31%6%0%Primary Cause of Stock Drop(#of Companies)Source:Compustat,Mercer Management Consulting analysisNote:There were also 5 stock drops for which the primary cause could not reliably be determined.These 5 stock drops are not depicted.Mercer Management ConsultingHKK 12/2

10、0/20239Nokia Mikko RouttiRisk Management Visionto take such risks that will enable company to profitably grow the business have a thorough understanding of those risks and responses required for successaim is to systematically capitalise on,control and manage risk in business rather than eliminate i

11、t.Ensure risks are properly analysed,prioritised and managed when taking major business decisions.Ensure that key risks have a responsible ownerTo manage events that may affect customers,employees,the financial position of Nokia and its brand.Comply with regulatory and legal requirementsHKK 12/20/20

12、2310Nokia Mikko RouttiDrivers for increased risk awareness business needs stakeholder awareness recent crisis(Worldcom,Enron,Tyco etc)compliance issues Turnbull/UK KontraG/Germany Netherlands Sarbanes-Oxley:USAfood for thought:do investors appreciate systematic risk management they penalize you if y

13、ou miss!HKK 12/20/202311Nokia Mikko RouttiBuilding up a Risk Management SystemPeople and competenciesProcessMethodsToolsPeople and competencies form the foundation of risk managementProcess helps ensure their skills are applied consistently Methods assure that risk management is done well Tools incr

14、ease productivity and can sometimes direct people and processesHKK 12/20/202312Nokia Mikko RouttiObjectives of Risk ManagementlControlAll projects have risks and some risks will occurRM is an investment into the future:It is often cheaper to avoid a potential problem than fix an occurred oneIf you o

15、nly fix problems as they surface,the flow of future problems will continue to keep you busy RM improves predictability and control of projectslUnderstandingKnow where the risks are and focus on essential risk areasConsistent understanding of risks throughout the organizationLearn from the risks that

16、 occurredHKK 12/20/202313Nokia Mikko RouttiWhat is Risk?HKK 12/20/202314Nokia Mikko RouttiRisk is a many-faceted Conceptlslippery driving conditions(rain,snow)la car accidentluntreated personal injuries,damaged vehiclesltreatment of injuries,purchase of a new carlmedical costs,permanent injury effec

17、ts,higher insurance premiumslThe net effect of pain,lost time and expenses as felt by individuals Risk factor:something that influences risksRisk event:occurrence of the riskRisk outcome:immediate impact of risk eventRisk Reaction:reaction to the riskRisk effects:effects of riskUtility loss:perceive

18、d value of effects by stakeholdersHKK 12/20/202316Nokia Mikko RouttiProject view:falling short of goalsScope of Risk ManagementFinancial view:varianceRiskManagementPain(Risk)Gain(Opportunity)UncertaintyImpactHKK 12/20/202317Nokia Mikko RouttiDefinitions of ProbabilitylClassic probabilityFuture outco

19、mes are decomposed into atomic,equally probable componentslFrequency-based probabilityRatio of a certain event in an infinite series of identical trialslSubjective probabilityA persons subjective belief of the likelihood of an event occurrenceHKK 12/20/202318Nokia Mikko RouttiTimeframe and RisklTime

20、frame(or urgency)actually an attribute of risk and controlling actionlPeople have strong biases for near-term riskslWaiting may buy information and new solutionsHKK 12/20/202319Nokia Mikko RouttiDefinition of RisklRisk is a fuzzy concept:be clear on what you meanlRisk is not the same as a problem:pr

21、obability=1problem solving too late lRisk is relative to stakeholders and their expectationslThe right-level of abstraction is critical and it depends on the situationVOCABULARY:exampleG-Goal and stakeholder review A process step in risk management.The stated goals of the working entity(Business Uni

22、t,Product program,Business Group,Function etc.)are reviewed and refined.Stakeholders associations with the goals are analyzedM-Mitigation Strategy A strategy that is used to lower the probability and/or utility loss of risk scenariosO-Objective-A goal that has an achievable,well-defined target level

23、 of achievement.R-Risk Any uncertainty that affects the objectives and achievement of optimum result.A possibility(probability of less than 1)of loss,the loss itself,or any characteristic,object or action that is associated with that possibility.HKK 12/20/202320Nokia Mikko RouttiRisk ManagementlRisk

24、 management refers to a systematic and explicit approach used for identifying,analyzing and controlling risk.lThe risk management process produces two main outputs:Understanding about risksControlling actionsRisk mgmt processUnderstanding of risksControlling actionsInformation aboutthe situationRisk

25、 mgmtmethodsProject context,goals,and plansHKK 12/20/202321Nokia Mikko RouttiRisk Management ProcessRisk ManagementMandateGoal&Stakeholder ReviewRisk IdentificationRisk Control&control planningRisk MonitoringRisk Analysisgoals andstake-holdersresponsibilities and scopefor risk mgmtlist ofpotentialri

26、sksdocumented,prioritized risksselectedcontrollingactionsNeed for new riskmgmt cycleHKK 12/20/202322Nokia Mikko RouttiRisk Mgmt Process-outputsHKK 12/20/202323Nokia Mikko RouttiRisk Management MandatelDefine the scope,detail,authority and frequency of risk management in a specific projectlScope and

27、detail:what risks must be managed and at what level of detaillAuthority:who is responsible,who participates,what resources are availablelFrequency:how often should it be donelStakeholders:whose risks will be managedHKK 12/20/202324Nokia Mikko RouttiCommunicating Risk InformationTopManagementBusiness

28、 UnitsProjectsMANDATERISKSHKK 12/20/202325Nokia Mikko RouttiSummarylMandate is used to clarify the roles and responsibilities in risk managementlMandate is given by the project owners to the project managerlWhen the risk management infrastructure is in place,many aspects of the risk management manda

29、te are easy to defineHKK 12/20/202326Nokia Mikko RouttiGoal Review:Definition of RisklUncertainty associated with reaching the objectives.lRisk has two main attributes:Impact:some damage(“pain”)uncertainty:there is uncertainty about whether the loss will occurRiskUncertaintyImpactHKK 12/20/202327Nok

30、ia Mikko RouttiDefinition of RisklUncertainty associated with reaching the objectives.lProbabilitylImpactgoals or expectations:without them the definition of loss is vague or does not existstakeholder:goals and expectations are associated to some interested party,a person or an organizationRiskUncer

31、taintyImpactGoalStakeholderHKK 12/20/202328Nokia Mikko RouttiStakeholders and GoalslStakeholder is any individual,group,or organization who can affect,or be affected by,the process or its resultslStakeholders can be,e.g.,Line managementCustomer(s)Partners,suppliers and vendorsOther programs or units

32、PersonnelSocietylIt is important to know the main stakeholders and their interestslGoals can be found usually in the following areas:schedule;resources used,most often personnel time;cost of development;product requirements,which can include both functional and other quality characteristics;resource

33、 utilization;and technical constraints,such as hardware platforms,operating systems and use of particular software tools.HKK 12/20/202330Nokia Mikko RouttiRisk IdentificationlRisk identification requires an open mindlTeamwork and effective meeting techniques are criticallThere are several checklists

34、 available but are they good for you?lIdentification of potential threatslNeeds to be done frequentlylRequires a different mental attitude:not problem solving but free associationTechniques:brainstorming,checklists,questionnaires,history data(lessons learned,data),critical path analysis,goal reviewH

35、KK 12/20/202331Nokia Mikko RouttiRI:Checklists vs.BrainstormingChecklistslProsFast and easy to useStandardize resultsCover a broad areaMay prompt thinking new riskslConsCause fatigueDo not encourage creativityMay be biased due to a different domainDo not encourage finding situation specific risksBra

36、instorminglProsFast and easy to useLeverages local expertise and insightKeeps participants activeDevelops commitmentlConsRequire facilitation or training Meeting dynamics may bias resultsDependent on participants experienceHKK 12/20/202332Nokia Mikko RouttiRisk AnalysislUnderstanding(describing)risk

37、sRisk tracking tablesRisk information formsVisualization of risk dependencieslRanking of risksRisk exposure(I.e.,probability*loss)Risk reduction leverageUrgencyHKK 12/20/202333Nokia Mikko RouttiRisk AnalysislRisk clusteringgroup and identify appropriate scenarioslRisk scenario developmentfill in ris

38、k information forms,orcomplete Riskit analysis graphslRisk prioritizationRank risksHKK 12/20/202334Nokia Mikko RouttiUnderstanding Risks:Risk Tracking TablesItems in tracking tables may includeIDAreaOriginDescriptionOwner/responsibleDate of most recent reviewProbabilityLoss impactPrioritycurrentprev

39、ioustime on the listRisk statusPotential controlling actionsSelected controlling actionsAction StatusHKK 12/20/202335Nokia Mikko RouttiRisk Documentation GuidelineslTemplates standardize communicationslUse an approach that matches your needslDevelop a path to refine the informationyou often start wi

40、th an abstract description and add details laterlDo not fill in information that you do not know:empty fields act as flags to otherslArchive past datauseful for learning from experienceHKK 12/20/202336Nokia Mikko RouttiRisk PrioritizationlKey attributes in prioritization:Probability and loss determi

41、ne how severe(=big)the risk isUrgency indicates whether you still have time to waitlTwo main approaches for ranking risks:Expected value of loss=prob(event)*loss(event)Ranking through tablesordinal rank multiplicationprearranged ranking tables for ordinal probability and loss estimatesrisk factor ra

42、nking tableslOrdinal scale ranking is adequate,when using Riskit Pareto ranking techniqueHKK 12/20/202337Nokia Mikko RouttiExpected ValuelSame as Risk Exposure:probability*losslRisks that have the highest expected loss are highest risks,e.g.,two risks that have potential delays:Risk A:20%*5 months=1

43、 monthRisk B:50%*3 months=1.5 monthsRisk B is a bigger risklA commonly used formula for prioritizing risksHKK 12/20/202338Nokia Mikko RouttiEffect of Non-linear Utility FunctionlRisk A:2 month delay with probability of 10%lRisk B:8 month delay with probability of 5%lExpected delay:A:0.2 monthsB:0.4

44、months=control risk BlExpected utility loss:A:5 UB:3 U=control risk A010203040506070012345678DelayUtility lossversion 0.02HKK 12/20/202339Nokia Mikko RouttiSummarylDifferent risks require different attentionFocus on most important or on areas of uncertaintylPrioritization is prone to estimation bias

45、es lSome prioritization methods have in-built biaseslTransparency and understandability of prioritization is important:make sure you can explain the results to everybodyHKK 12/20/202340Nokia Mikko RouttiControlling Actions vs.ReactionslRisk controlling actions are actions taken before the risk has o

46、ccurred,I.e.,it is proactive risk managementlReactions are actions that are performed after the risk has occurredlRisk management is primarily concerned with risk controlling actionsHKK 12/20/202341Nokia Mikko RouttiDefining Risk Controlling ActionslBrainstormingOpen or focusedlStrategies lChecklist

47、s lRisk element review analyze risk elements to identify what actions could be takenlExperiencePersonal experience and insightsAcceptanceAvoidanceProtectionReductionResearchReservesTransferHKK 12/20/202342Nokia Mikko RouttiRisk Control alternativeslNo risk reducing actionNo immediate action is taken

48、,but some may be taken at a later timelContingency planningRecovery plans are made,but no further action takenlReduce lossRefers to risk controlling actions that are used to mitigate the damage caused by risklRisk avoidanceRefers to actions that are aimed at avoiding risks occurringlReduce event pro

49、babilityInfluencing risk factors and observing risk monitoring metrics to reduce the event probabilityHKK 12/20/202343Nokia Mikko RouttiSelecting Risk Controlling ActionslControl high-risk scenarioslEffectiveness of risk controlling action lProject constraintslStakeholder prioritylUrgency of risk co

50、ntrolling actionHKK 12/20/202344Nokia Mikko RouttiRisk Monitoring in PracticelDefine and collect risk metrics when applicablelMonitor additionallychanges in the situationimpact of risk controlling actionspotential new threatschanges in risk analysis input datalInitiate risk identification,risk analy