(11)--MaritimeEconomics航运经济与政策.pdf

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1、 11.1 THE COMMERCIAL ORIGINS OF BULK SHIPPINGThere is nothing particularly new about bulk shipping.Cutting transport costs by carrying cargo in shiploads is a strategy that has been around for millennia.The grain fleet of ancient Rome,1the Dutch fly boats of the sixteenth century,and the nineteenth-

2、century tea clippers are all examples.However the bulk shipping industrywhich has such an important place in the shipping industry of the twenty-first centuryhas its roots in the eighteenth-century coal trade between the North of England andLondon.At first the standard collier was a wooden sailing c

3、ollier brig,but between1840 and 1887 the coal trade grew from 1.4 mt to 49.3 mt and better ships were needed.2The new designs are recognizable as close relations of modern bulk carriers,incorpo-rating screw propulsion,a double bottom for the carriage of water ballast and the location of machinery fo

4、re and aft,leaving the entire hold amidships available for the carriage of cargo.Commercially the most successful of the pioneer designs was the John Bowes.Builtat Palmers Shipyard in Jarrow in 1852,she was iron-hulled,screw-propelled and couldcarry 600 tons of coal per voyage,compared with about 28

5、0 tons for a good sailing collier.Independent of wind and with much greater carrying capacity,the steam colliers couldmake many more round trips than a sailing vessel.These economic advantages morethan compensated for their higher capital cost,3making possible the rapidly growingcoastal trade betwee

6、n Newcastle and London.Since the nineteenth century the fleet ofgeneral purpose bulk vessels has become one of the major components of the worldfleet,and bulk transport economics has been so successfully applied that coal can beshipped across the world for much the same money price per ton as it wou

7、ld have cost125 years ago.The Transport ofBulk CargoesGod must have been a shipowner.He placed the raw materials far from where they were neededand covered two thirds of the earth with water.(Erling Naess)11 Our aim in this chapter is to discuss the bulk fleet,the commodities traded,the gen-eral pri

8、nciples which drive bulk transport systems,and the transport of liquid and drybulk commodities.11.2 THE BULK FLEETIn July 2007 the bulk fleet consisted of 14,756 vessels divided into the segments shownin Figure 11.1.The two main fleets are tankers(8040 ships)and bulk carriers(6631ships),with a small

9、er fleetof combined carriers(85ships)which can carry bothtanker and bulk carrier cargoes.There is also asizeable MPP and trampfleet which can carry drybulk,general cargo andcontainers,providing a linkbetween the dry bulkmarket and the containerbusiness.Finally,container-ships are a significant marke

10、tforce in some of the smallbulk cargoes such as forestproducts.The two defining characteristics of the 21 segments are ship size and hull design.Size is the dominant feature,and between 1976 and 2006 the average size of bulk carrier almost doubled from 31,000 dwt to 56,000 dwt,and the average tanker

11、 increasedin size by 20%from 75,000 dwt to 90,000 dwt.As the ships got bigger the marketsevolved into the ship size segments shown in Figure 11.1.The tanker fleet is dividedinto five main size segments:VLCCs which carry the long-haul cargoes;Suezmaxeswhich operate in the middle-distance trades such

12、as from West Africa to the USA;Aframaxes which trade in shorter-haul trades such as across the Mediterranean;Panamaxes which trade in the Caribbean;and the Handy tankers which carry oil products.There is also a fleet of 4629 small tankers which operate in the short seatrades.In addition,there are a

13、large number of specialized tankers.These are discussedin Chapter 12 and include a fleet of 2699 chemical tankers which transport chemicals,vegetable oils and other difficultliquid cargoes,a small fleet of 511 specialized tankersbuilt for a single commodity such as wine,and 1185 gas tankers which ca

14、rry LNG,LPG,ammonia and other gases.Although these segmentations are generally acceptedin the industry and,for example,shipbrokers often organize their broking desks aroundthem,there is much overlap.Since the trend in size is generally upwards,typically thefleet segments with bigger ships grow faste

15、r as port improvements and increasing tradevolumes widen their market,whilst the segments of smaller ships grow more slowly.418TRANSPORT OF BULK CARGOESCHAPTER11Figure 11.1The bulk fleet showing main segments,1 July 2007Source:Table 2.5 The dry bulk carrier fleet is divided into four main size segme

16、nts Capesize,Panamax,Handymax and Handy,plus five groups of specialist bulk carriers,open hatch vessels,designed for unit loads;ore carriers,designed to carry high-density iron ore;woodchipcarriers,designed for low-density wood chips;cement carriers,designed to handlecement efficiently;and self-unlo

17、aders capable of discharging cargo at very high ratesusing conveyor belts.Finally,there is the swing tonnage.The small fleet of combinedcarriers can carry either oil or dry bulk,though the three remaining ore-oilers in 2007were limited to iron ore.This fleet moves from dry to wet cargo depending on

18、freightrates and the vessels can triangulate,carrying dry and wet cargo on alternate legs toreduce ballast time.In the depressed markets of the 1980s and 1990s this flexibilityspread the surplus between markets and never produced the returns investors had hopedfor,with the result that few replacemen

19、t vessels were ordered and the fleet has beendeclining for 20 years.The link between the dry bulk trades and the general cargo tradeis the fleet of MPP vessels and tramps which can carry dry bulk or containers,and operate in regular services carrying mixed general cargo or carrying dry bulk if freig

20、htrates are favourable,though container-ships increasingly carry minor bulk cargoes.Finally,there are the specialist bulk vessels distinguished by hulls designed for the carriage of specific cargoes such as gas,iron ore,forest products and cement.The self-unloaders carry their own high-speed cargo-h

21、andling gear.These vessels are discussed in Chapter 12,which examines the trades and markets,and Chapter 14,whichdiscusses the economics of ship design.Although Figure 11.1 presents the bulk fleet as having many segments,in practiceships can move between adjacent segments in response to changes in f

22、reight rates.Forexample,a VLCC might move into the West African oil trade,generally a Suezmaxtrade,if the freight makes it worth the effort,and the same is true of Panamax bulk carriers which compete closely with Handymax vessels and Capesize bulk carriers.In extreme circumstances chemical parcel ta

23、nkers will even carry clean products and,during the boom of 2004,fuel oil,which would normally be transported in a 30,000 dwtvessel,was shipped in 440,000 dwt ULCCs.So the segments are a convenient way ofrecognizing demand differences within the trades,but not impenetrable barriers.If thatwas not th

24、e case,managing investment in bulk shipping would be far more difficult thanit already is.11.3 THE BULK TRADESOur first task is to distinguish a bulk commodityfrom a bulk cargo.In the shippingindustry a bulk commodity is a substance like grain,iron ore and coal which is tradedin large quantities and

25、 has a physical character which makes it easy to handle and transport in bulk.Bulk commodities are generally carried in bulk carriers,in which case they are bulk cargo,but if they are shipped in a container they become generalcargo.So,strictly speaking,bulk cargodescribes the transport mode not the

26、commod-ity type.In practice,commodities such as iron ore and coal are almost always shippedin bulk so the terms are often used synonymously iron ore is referred to as a bulk419THE BULK TRADES11.3CHAPTER11 cargo or a bulk commodity.But non-ferrous metal ores,for example,are often baggedand containeri

27、zed,so the volume of cargo is different from the commodity trade.Thedistinction is even more blurred when we turn to commodities which can only beshipped in bulk if a special ship is constructed for example,such diverse trades asmeat,bananas,motor cars,chemicals and live animals.We refer to these as

28、 specializedcargoesand discuss them in Chapter 12.This distinction between commodity and cargois important even if we cannot always record it in statistical terms.The bulk cargoes shipped by seaAn idea of the sort of commodities shipped in bulk is provided by Table 11.1,whichanalyses 2549 bulk cargo

29、es fixed in 2001 and 2002.The table lists 28 commoditiesalong with details of the number of cargoes shipped and the average size.At the top oflist is iron ore,with an average cargo size of 147,804 tonnes,followed by coal with anaverage cargo size of 109,046 tonnes.But the parcel sizes gradually dimi

30、nish,withmany parcels in the 20,00045,000 tonne range,and the smallest is bagged rice with anaverage size of 7893 tonnes.This gives a sense of the variety and the range of parcelsizes carried by bulk carriers.Although the oil trade has fewer commodities,the rangeof parcel sizes is equally wide.Some

31、of the cargoes listed in Table 11.1 are also shipped by the liner services discussed in Chapter 13,or by the specialist carriers discussed in Chapter 12,the obviouscases being bagged sugar,steel pipes,fertilizers,scrap and agricultural products.Froma transport viewpoint there are four main character

32、istics of bulk commodities whichinfluence their suitability for transport in bulk:Volume.To be shipped in bulk there needs to be enough volume moving to fill a ship.Handling and stowage.Commodities with a consistent granular composition whichcan easily be handled with automated equipment such as gra

33、bs and conveyers aremore suitable for bulk transport.Grain,ores and coal have these characteristics.Large units such as forest products(logs,rolls of paper,etc.)and vehicles can beshipped in conventional bulk carriers but cargo-handling efficiency and stowagecan be improved by packing into standard

34、units timber may be packaged;ores andfertilizers put in large bags;or sacks loaded onto a pallet.In these cases ships canbe designed to match the dimensions of the cargo.Cargoes susceptible to damagerequire special facilities.For example,alumina,sugar,manufactured fertilizers andgrain need protected

35、 storage.Dangerous cargoes such as chemicals must be carriedin ships which meet international regulations on the carriage of hazardous cargoes(see Chapter 16).Finally,some cargoes are very dense(e.g.iron ore),leaving muchspace in the hold if a standard ship is used.Others are very light(woodchips,na

36、phtha),creating the need for a ship with a large volume that can carry a full cargodeadweight.Cargo value.High-value cargoes are more sensitive to inventory costs,whichmakes them advantageous to ship in smaller parcels,whereas low-value commodi-ties like iron ore can be stockpiled.420TRANSPORT OF BU

37、LK CARGOESCHAPTER11 Regularity of trade flow.Cargoes shipped regularly in large quantities provide abetter basis for investment in bulk handling systems.For example,the sugar trade,which is very fragmented,has benefited less from bulk transport systems.In most cases the overlap is relatively small,w

38、ith the bulk shipping business focusingprimarily on a few high-volume commodities,with the crossovercommodities occupying421THE BULK TRADES11.3CHAPTER11Table 11.1 Bulk cargoes fixed spot 20012Number ofTonnage ofAverageType of cargocargoescargo(tonnes)size(tonnes)Major BulksIron ore 889131,397,500147

39、,804CoalCoking coal723,114,50043,257Coal74381,021,000109,046GrainOats2197,00098,500Grain32616,540,13550,737Heavy grain1044,639,78744,613Barley15554,00036,933Wheat642,175,96033,999Corn14444,00031,714Maize13322,00024,769AgribulksCanola3110,00036,667Agriprods469,00017,250Rice bagged755,2507,893SugarSug

40、ar bulk1161,981,40017,230Sugar bagged47518,57511,034FertilizersFertilizers18468,00026,000Phosphates7168,00024,000Phosphate rock8171,00021,375Urea16287,00017,938Metals&mineralsManganese ore9185,00020,556Concentrates2160,00080,000Pig iron275,00037,500Cement4261,00065,250Bauxite201,097,00054,850Petcoke

41、13600,00046,154Coke7198,00028,286Steel productsScrap16334,00020,875Steel billets498,60024,650Steel pipes491,00022,750Grand Total2549247,333,70730,119Source:Various a relatively small proportion of the businesses activity,and mainly in the smaller shipsizes.This point is apparent when we look at the

42、statistics of the bulk commoditiestraded by sea in Table 11.2.In 2005 there were 4.9 billion tons of bulk commodities,about two-thirds of sea trade.This total included 2.3 billion tons of liquid,1.6 billiontons of majordry bulk commodities and 1 billion tons of minordry bulk commodities.The list of

43、commodities is not comprehensive,but when viewed in the context of thecargo data in Table 11.1 it provides a more detailed account of the commodities mostcommonly traded in bulk carriers.The overlap is mainly in the minor bulks which onlyaccount for 17%of the bulk commodities.But the size of vessel

44、required is also a central issue and in Chapter 2 we explored how the parcel size distribution function isdetermined by the commoditys economic and physical characteristics which influencethe size and type of ship used to transport the cargo.11.4 THE PRINCIPLES OF BULK TRANSPORTAt the heart of this

45、analysis are the ships used by the transport system.A transportsystem is designed so that its parts work together as efficiently as possible,and seatransport is just one stage in the transport chain moving bulk commodities between 422TRANSPORT OF BULK CARGOESCHAPTER11Table 11.2 Bulk commodities tran

46、sported by seaGrowth Million tons1985199019952004200519852005(%pa)1.Liquid bulksCrude oil9841,1901,4501,8021,8203.1%Oil Products2883363812194882.7%Totals1,2721,5261,8312,0212,3083.0%2.Three major bulksIron ore3213474025896503.6%Coking coal1443421601861841.2%Thermal coal1322424754986.9%Grain181192216

47、2732421.5%Total7788811,0201,5231,5743.6%3.Minor bulks(see Table 11.12 for more details of the commodities)Agribulks79871061361583.5%Sugar28283437462.6%Fertilizers9690931001090.6%Metals and minerals1701882172353103.1%Steel and forrest products3013253653453871.3%Total6737198158521,0102.0%Total bulk tr

48、ade2,7233,1263,6664,3964,8923.0%Source:Major bulks,Fearnleys Review 2005,minor bulks Clarkson Research Studies,variousNote:The minor bulk data includes some land trade producers and consumers.Cargo flows through the system as a series of discrete shipments,with the storage areas acting as buffers to

49、 allow for timing differences in thearrival and despatch of the commodity.For example in a grain system barges may bedelivering grain every day,but the grain elevator may only load two ships a week.The stages in a typical bulk transport system are shown in Figure 11.2.It consists ofa sea voyage and

50、two land journeys which could be by lorry,train,conveyor,or pipeline.There are four storage areas located at the origin(e.g.mine,oilfield,factory or steelmill),the loading port,the discharging port and the destination,and no less than 17 han-dling operations as the cargo moves through the system!The