(5)--MaritimeEconomics航运经济与政策.pdf

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1、 5.1 THE DECISIONS FACING SHIPOWNERSA shipowner had a difficult decision to make.He was about to take delivery of two300,000 dwt VLCCs which an oil company was prepared to charter for 5 years at$37,000 per day each.This would guarantee revenue to cover his finance costs for the 5 years of the ships

2、life,but the return on his equity worked out at only 6%per annum.Not much for the risk he had taken in ordering the ships.In addition,the time charter would shut him out from the tanker boom he felt sure would happen in the next few years.He decided to wait and trade the ships on the spot market,but

3、 because of the high levelof debt service for those two years he entered into some VLCC forward freight agree-ments(FFAs)to hedge his earnings at$40,000 per day for those two years.This turnedout to be a good decision,since the ships were delivered into a falling market and thepositive settlement of

4、 the FFAs topped up his falling spot market income.Unfortunatelythe next three years proved to be very poor and the vessels earned only$25,000 per dayeach.To meet bank payments the owner was forced to sell two old Suezmax tankers.Since there were no offers from trading buyers he eventually sold them

5、 to a breaker for$5 million each.Two years earlier they had been valued at$23 million each.In this example the shipowner trades in four different markets:the newbuilding market where he ordered the ships;the freight market where he chartered them and concluded FFAs;the sale and purchase market where

6、 he tried to sell the Suezmax tankers;the demolition market where he finally sold them.The Four ShippingMarketsEconomists understand by the term Market,not any particular market place in which things are bought and sold,but the whole of any region in which buyers and sellers are in such free interco

7、urse with one another that the prices of the same goods tend to equality easily and quickly.(Antoine-Augustin Cournot,Researches Into the Mathematical Principles of the Theory ofWealth,1838(Trans.N.T.Bacon 1897)5 176THE FOUR SHIPPING MARKETSCHAPTER5BOX 5.1 GLOSSARY OF CHARTERING TERMSShipper Individ

8、ual or company with cargo to transport.Charterer Individual or company who hires a ship.Charter-party Contract setting out the terms on which the shipper contracts for thetransportation of his cargo or the charterer contracts for the hire of a ship.Voyage charter Ship earns freight per ton of cargo

9、transported on terms set out inthe charter-party which specifies the precise nature and volume of cargo,the port(s)of loading and discharge and the laytime and demurrage.All costs paid by theshipowner.Consecutive voyage charter Vessel hired to perform a series of consecutive voyages between A and B.

10、Contract of Affreightment(COA)Shipowner undertakes to carry quantities of a specific cargo on a particular route or routes over a given period of time using ships of his choice within specified restrictions.Period charter The vessel is hired for a specified period of time for payment of a daily,mont

11、hly or annual fee.There are three types,time charter,trip charter and consecutive voyage charter.Time charter Ship earns hire,monthly or semi-monthly.The shipowner retains possession and mans and operates ship under instructions from charterer who pays voyage costs(see Chapter 3 for definition).Trip

12、 charter Fixed on a time charter basis for the period of a specific voyage and forthe carriage of a specific cargo.Shipowner earns hire per day for the period deter-mined by the voyage.Bare boat charter The owner of the ship contracts(for a fee,usually long-term)toanother party for its operation.The

13、 ship is then operated by the second party as ifhe owned it.Laytime The period of time agreed between the party to a voyage charter duringwhich the owner will make ship available for loading/discharging of cargo.Demurrage The money payable to the shipowner for delay for which he is notresponsible in

14、 loading and/or discharging beyond the laytime.Despatch Means the money which the owner agreed to repay if the ship is loadedor discharged in less than the laytime allowed in the charter-party(customarilydemurrage).Common abbreviationsc.i.f.The purchase price of the goods(by importer)includes paymen

15、t of insuranceand freight which is arranged by the exporter.f.o.b.Goods are purchased at cost and the importer makes his own arrangementfor insurance and freight.The aim of this chapter is to explain how these four markets work from a practical view-point and to identify the differences between them

16、.In Chapter 4 we discussed the barebones of supplydemand analysis,showing how the supply and demand curves interactto determine freight rates and prices,so now we will put some flesh on the bones.Howare ships actually chartered?How can FFAs be used to manage freight market risk?How does the sale and

17、 purchase market operate and what determines the value of a ship at a particular point in time?What is the difference between buying a new ship and buying a second-hand one?How does selling a ship for scrap differ from selling itfor continued trading?And how do these markets interact?An understandin

18、g of thesepractical questions should provide a deeper insight into how the market economicsreally work.A list of the more important specialist terms often used in these markets is provided in Box 5.1.5.2 THE FOUR SHIPPING MARKETSDefinition of a marketMarkets play such a big part in the operation of

19、the international sea transport businessthat we must start by clarifying what a market actually is.Jevons,the nineteenth-century economist,provided a definition which,a century later,still serves very wellfor shipping:Originally a market was a public place in a town where provisions and otherobjects

20、 were exposed for sale;but the word has been generalized,so as to meanany body of persons who are in intimate business relations and carry on extensivetransactions in any commodity.A great city may contain as many markets as thereare important branches of trade,and these markets may or may not be lo

21、calized.The central point of a market is the central exchange,mart or auction rooms wheretraders agree to meet and transact business But this distinction of locality is notnecessary.The traders may be spread over a whole town,or region or country andyet make a market if they are in close communicati

22、on with each other1Although the scale of markets has changed and communications have freed traders fromthe need for physical contact,the basic principles described by Jevons are still valid,though we can refine the model.Shippings four market placesToday sea transport services are provided by four c

23、losely related markets,each trading ina different commodity:The freight market trades in sea transport;the sale and purchase market trades second-hand ships;the newbuilding market trades new ships;andthe demolition market deals in ships for scrapping.Beyond this there is no formal structure.This is

24、an important point which calls for a warning.Although this chapter provides177THE FOUR SHIPPING MARKETS5.2CHAPTER5 guidance on how the markets operate,we are not dealing with immutable laws.The factthat traders behaved in a particular way in the past is no guarantee that they will do so infuture.Bec

25、ause markets consist of people going about their business,the best commercialopportunities often arise when the market behaves inconsistently.For example,orderingships at the top of the market cycle is usually bad business,but if for some reason fewships are ordered,the rule will not apply.Commercia

26、l judgements must be based on anunderstanding of market dynamics,not economic principles taken out of context.How the four shipping markets integrateBecause the same shipowners are trading in all four markets their activities are closelycorrelated.When freight rates rise or fall the changing sentime

27、nt ripples through intothe sale and purchase market and from there into the newbuilding market,with the balance sheets of the companies trading in the different markets acting as a link.Theway this works is illustrated in Figure 5.1.The focal point is the industry balance sheet,shown at the centre o

28、f the chart,which is the consolidation of individual company balance sheets.Cash flows in and out of the balance sheets of the various shipping companies as they trade in the four shipping markets(represented by the squares)whichrespond to the cycles in trade.The freight market(market 1)provides fre

29、ight revenue,the main source of cash forshipping companies.In fact there are three sectors to this market:the voyage marketwhich trades transport for a single voyage;the time-charter market which hires out theship for a defined period;and the freight derivatives market which deals in forward contrac

30、ts settled against an index.Freight rates earned in these markets are the primarymotivating force driving the activities of shipping investors.The other cash inflowcomes from the demolition market(market 4).Old or obsolete vessels sold to scrapdealers provide a useful source of cash,especially durin

31、g recessions.The sale and purchase market(market 2)has a more subtle role.Investing in a second-hand shipinvolves a transaction between a shipowner and an investor.Because the investor is usually another shipowner,money changes hands but the transaction does not affect theamount of cash held by the

32、industry.The sale of a tanker for$20 million just transfers$20 million cash from one shipping bank account to another,leaving the aggregate cashbalance unchanged.2In this sense the sale and purchase market is a zero-sum game.Forevery winner there is a loser.The only real source of wealth is trading

33、cargo in thefreight market.3In the case of the newbuilding market(market 3)cash flows in theopposite direction.Cash spent on new ships flows out of the shipping industry becausethe shipyard uses it to pay for materials,labour and profit.These waves of cash flowing between the four markets drive the

34、shipping marketcycle.At the beginning of the cycle freight rates rise and cash starts to pour in,allowingshipowners to pay higher prices for second-hand ships.As prices are bid up,investorsturn to the newbuilding market which now looks better value.With the confidence created by bulging wallets they

35、 order many new ships.A couple of years later the shipsarrive on the market and the whole process goes into reverse.Falling freight rates squeezethe cash inflow just as investors start paying for their newbuildings.Financially weak178THE FOUR SHIPPING MARKETSCHAPTER5 owners who cannot meet their day

36、-to-day obligations are forced to sell ships on thesecond-hand market.This is the point at which the asset play market starts for thoseshipowners with strong balance sheets.In extreme circumstances,such as those of 1932 or 1986 modern ships change hands at bargain prices,though shipowners pursuing t

37、he strategy of buying low and selling high are often disappointed because in short recessions there are few bargains.For older ships there will be no offers from trading buyers,so hard-pressed owners are obliged to sell for demolition.As moreships are scrapped the supply falls,freight rates are bid

38、up and the whole process starts again.179THE FOUR SHIPPING MARKETS5.2CHAPTER5Figure 5.1The four markets that control shippingSource:Martin Stopford,Maritime Economics 3rdedition 2007Note:This diagram shows how the four shipping markets are linked together by the cash flowing through the balancesheet

39、s of the companies in the middle.The freight market generates cash;the sale and purchase market moves it fromone balance sheet to another;the newbuilding market drains it out of the market in return for new ships;and the demolition market produces a small inflow in return of old ships The whole comm

40、ercial process is controlled and coordinated by cashflow betweenmarkets.Cash is the stick and carrot which the market uses to drive activity in the required direction.Whether they like it or not,shipowners are part of a processwhich controls the price of the ships they trade and the revenue they ear

41、n.An importantaspect of this competitive process is the continuous movement of companies in and out of the markets.One of the main purposes of the market cycle is to squeeze out the inefficient companies,and allow new and efficient companies to enter the marketand gain market share.This is how the m

42、arket mechanism steadily improves efficiency,and in most markets the top companies are continuously changing.The different characters of the four marketsThe markets we discuss in this section share some very distinctive characteristics.Because of the international nature of the shipping business and

43、 the mobility of assets,they are globally competitive and very close to the perfect competition modeldescribed by classical economists(see Chapter 8,Section 8.2 for a discussion of thispoint).However the markets are not homogeneous.Over time various sub-market segments have developed trading special

44、ist cargoes and the ships that carry them(wediscuss these trades in Chapter 12).These markets have a different business character,but there is still competition between them for cargo.Finally there are many small entrepreneurial companies and it is easy for companies to enter and leave the market,ma

45、king the whole structure very cost-effective and responsive to changes in shippersneeds.In all,a fascinating case study of market economics at work.5.3 THE FREIGHT MARKETWhat is the freight market?The freight market is one of the markets Jevons must have had in mind when he wrotethe definition cited

46、 in the previous section.The original freight market,the BalticShipping Exchange,first started to trade as a commodity and shipping exchange in themid-nineteenth century,though as we saw in Section 1.5 its functions had long beenperformed,in a less organized way,by the Baltic Coffee House.The Baltic

47、 operated inexactly the way Jevons described.At this institution merchants looking for transport metships captains looking for cargo.The freight market today remains a market place inwhich sea transport is bought and sold,though the business is mainly transacted by telephone,e-mail and messaging ser

48、vices rather than on the floor of the Baltic.Nowadays there is a single international freight market but,just as there are separatesections for cows and pigs in the country market,there are separate markets for differentships in the freight market.In the short term the freight rates for tankers,bulk

49、 carriers,container-ships,gas tankers,and chemical tankers behave quite differently,but becauseit is the same broad group of traders,what happens in one sector eventually ripplesthrough into the others.For example,combined carriers switch between tanker and 180THE FOUR SHIPPING MARKETSCHAPTER5 bulk

50、markets.Also,because it takes time for ships to move around the world,there are separate regional markets which are only accessible to ships ready to load cargo in thatarea.We discussed how this influences the theory of short-term and long-term freightrate determination in Section 6.4.The freight ma