首席经济学家展望：2024年1月-世界经济论坛（英）.doc

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1、Centre for the New Economy and SocietyChief Economists OutlookJanuary 2024Chief Economists OutlookChief Economists OutlookJanuary 2024This quarterly briefing builds on the latest policy development research as well as consultations and surveys with leading chief economists from both the public and p

2、rivate sectors, organized by the World Economic Forums Centre for the New Economy and Society.It aims to summarize the emerging contours of the current economic environment and identify priorities for further action by policy-makers and business leaders in response to the compounding shocks to the g

3、lobal economy from geoeconomic and geopolitical events.The survey featured in this briefing wasconducted in November-December 2023.3Chief Economists OutlookContentsExecutive summary_ _ 51. Global conditions remain subdued_ 7 Growth momentum is slowing across regions_ _ 7 Tightening cycle may be near

4、ing the end_ 102. Geopolitical rifts compound uncertainty_ 12 Fragmentation clouds the outlook_ 12 Governments continue to turn inward_ 153. Artificial intelligence takes the spotlight_ 18 AI may expand the productivity frontier_ 18 Navigating the societal impact_ 20References_ 23Contributors_ 28Ack

5、nowledgements_ _ 29Cover: Unsplash4Chief Economists OutlookExecutive summaryThe January 2024 Chief Economists Outlook launches amid protracted weakness in global economic conditions and widening regional divergence. Uncertainty that dominated the outlook over the last year continues to cloud near-te

6、rm economic developments: 56% of chief economists expect the global economy to weaken over the next year, but another 43% foresee unchanged or stronger conditions.While there are positive developments, such as easing inflationary pressures and advances in the field of artificial intelligence (AI), b

7、usinesses and policy-makers face persistent headwinds and continued volatility as global economic activity remains slow, financial conditions remain tight and geopolitical rifts and social strains continue to grow.Regionally, the results highlight diverging growth patterns. The most buoyant economic

8、 activity is still expected in South and East Asia. China remains an exception, with the previous combination of strong and moderate growth expectations being replaced with largely moderate (69%) expectations for 2024. In the US and the Middle East and North Africa, the outlook has weakened since th

9、e September 2023 edition of the Chief Economists Outlook, with about six out of ten respondents expecting moderate or stronger growth this year. In Europe, 77% expect weak or very weak growth in 2024.Elsewhere in the world, the expectations are for broadly moderate growth.The survey results reflect

10、the improvement in the inflation outlook for 2024, with expectations for high inflation being pared back across all regions. The majority also expect that labour markets (77%) and financial conditions (70%) will loosen.This edition of the outlook focuses on two key phenomena impacting the global eco

11、nomy geopolitical developments and advancements in generative AI. Almost seven out of ten chief economists expect the pace of geoeconomic fragmentation to accelerate this year. The majority of respondents say it will stoke volatility in the global economy (87%) and in stock markets (80%). There appe

12、ars to be equally strong consensus that recent geopolitical developments will increase localization (86%) and strengthen geoeconomic blocs (80%). Almost six out of ten (57%) also expect it to increase inequality and widen the North-South divide in the next three years.Growing global fragmentation is

13、 closely intertwined with the resurgence in industrial policies. About two-thirds expect these policies to enable the emergence of new economic growth hotspots and vital new industries, with the majority warning of rising fiscal strains (79%) and divergence between higher- and lower-income economies

14、 (66%).5Chief Economists OutlookRespondents are almost unanimous in expecting these policies to remain largely uncoordinated between countries, with a different mix of defensive and enabling approaches in high- and low-income economies.The rapid advances in the field of artificial intelligence put i

15、t on top of business and policy agendas in 2024. Respondents are notably more optimistic about AI-enabled benefits in high-income economies than in developing economies, including an increasein the efficiency of output production (79%) and innovation (74%), with a more mixed picture regarding standa

16、rds of living (57%). Chief economists are almost unanimous (94%) in expecting productivity gains to become economically significant in high-income economies in the next five years, compared to only 53% for low-income economies. The views are somewhat more divided on the likelihood of generative AI r

17、esulting in a decline in trust across high-income (56%) and low-income (44%) economies this year.6Chief Economists Outlook1. Global conditions remain subduedGrowth momentum is slowing across regionsGlobal economic prospects remain subdued and fraught with uncertainty, according to the latest survey

18、of chief economists. Although 56% of chief economists expect the global economyto weaken over the next year, 20% foresee unchanged conditions and nearly a quarter expect stronger conditions (see Figure 1).These somewhat divided results highlight that the ambiguity that dominated the outlook over the

19、 last year continues to cloud near-term economic developments.Figure 1. The global economic outlookLooking at the year ahead, what are your expectations for the future condition of the global economy? Much weaker Somewhat weaker Unchanged Somewhat stronger Much stronger314532023Share of respondents

20、(%)Note: The numbers in the graphs may not add up to 100% because figures have been rounded up/down.Source: Chief Economists Survey, November-December 2023The relative resilience of the worldeconomy in the recent years will continueto be tested entering 2024. Global economicactivity is stalling with

21、 signs of slowdown in both the manufacturing and services sectors.1 Tight financial conditions weigh on consumer and business sentiments,2 while fiscal and monetary policy-makers are assessing trade-offs and sequencing for careful policy calibration.The economic backdrop is marked by protracted weak

22、ness in global growth and widening divergence. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a slight decline in global growth to 2.9% in 2024, down from 3% in 2023.3 The relative resilience in global figures continues to rely on the growth performance of emerging economies, while the momentum in

23、advanced economies is fading.1 S&P Global, December 2023b.2 Lane, April 2023.3 IMF, October 2023.7Chief Economists OutlookHowever, growth forecasts remain vulnerable to an increased risk of shocks. The geopolitical rifts highlighted as a source of global economic volatility in the last survey4 have

24、since increased with new conflicts erupting or worsening in Africa, the Middle East5 and Latin America.6Figure 2. Growth expectationsWhile economic headwinds remain contained, these escalations risk rupturing supply chains and sending shockwaves beyond the commodity markets. Further uncertainty hing

25、es on the outcomes of election cycles in the coming year.What is your expectation for economic growth in the following geographies in 2024? Very weak Weak Moderate Strong Very strongSouth Asia574152East Asia and Pacific155630Middle East and North Africa4354615Central Asia167212Latin America and the

26、Carribbean305911United States340533China3169Sub-Saharan Africa3565Europe106723Share of respondents (%)Source: Chief Economists Survey, November-December 2023Regional performance expectations are highly varied (see Figure 2). Chief economists continue to see the most buoyant economic activity in the

27、economies of Asia, although no region is slated for very strong growth in 2024. The outlook for South Asia and East Asia and Pacific remains positive and broadly unchanged compared to the last survey, with 93% and 86% expecting moderate or stronger growth for South Asia and East Asiaand Pacific, res

28、pectively. China is a notable exception as weak consumption, lower industrial production and distress in property markets weigh on the prospects of a stronger rebound in 2024.7 The views of chief economists have also shifted, with strong (19%) and moderate (38%) expectations in the previous survey r

29、eplaced with largely moderate (69%) expectations for 2024.4 World Economic Forum, September 2023a.5 Livni et al., November 2023.6 Delcas, December 2023.7 IMF, October 2023.8Chief Economists OutlookThe change in the outlook for Europe is particularly stark, with the share of respondents expecting wea

30、k or very weak growth almost doubling to 77% since September. In the US, the expectations are significantly weaker too, with 56% foreseeing moderate or higher growth in 2024, compared to 78% in the previous survey. Both economies confront tight lending conditions, a slowdown in manufacturing and exp

31、osure to geopolitical rifts.Expectations for growth have strengthened in Latin America and the Caribbean and Sub-Saharan Africa, with a slight uptickin the share of respondents expecting at least moderate growth to 70% and 65%, respectively. In Central Asia, the improvement is more pronounced with a

32、bout 84% of respondents expecting at least moderate growth in 2024, up from 66% in the previous survey.In the Middle East and North Africa, the expectations have slightly weakened reflecting broader uncertainty about the trajectory of the Israel-Hamas war and its implications for the wider region. A

33、lthough 61% still foresee moderate or stronger growth in 2024, regional prospects remain clouded by weak oil demand8 and a sharp contraction in tourism.9The near-term outlook for the regions discussed arrives after a protractedslowdown of growth momentum across all geographies. According to one esti

34、mate, average annual growth has declined from2.0% in the early 2000s to 1.4% in the post-COVID-19 period in advanced economies and from 5.8% to 1.7% in emerging and developing economies.10 The prospects of a rebound to pre-pandemic trajectory appear elusive: the IMF foresees 3.1% average annual grow

35、th over the next five years, the weakest medium-term outlook in decades. Moreover, in its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF points out that rates of convergence are slowing too, with the time needed to close half the gap in income per capita between emerging and developing economies and advance

36、d economies increasing from 80 years in 2008 to 130 years in the latest estimates.11While technological advances may give new impetus to global productivity,12 policies that enhance good-quality growth are needed to revive global momentum and balance the impact across the income groups. When asked a

37、bout growth strategies available to developing economies in the current context, chief economists highlighted five in particular: laying a sound institutional framework for long-term growth, improving integration into global value chains, tapping into green transition opportunities, strengthening in

38、novation capacity, digital infrastructure and a sound investment climate, and investing in human capital and basic services.8 IEA, December 2023.9 S&P Global, November 2023.10 World Economic Forum, January 2024.11 IMF, October 2023.12 Pizzinelli et al., October 2023.9Chief Economists OutlookTighteni

39、ng cycle may be nearing the endAt the start of 2024, global inflation continues to ease, propping expectations of mild ebbing in interest rates this year.13 The global headline rates of inflation are projected toreach 4.8%,14 a sharp decline from 5.9% in 2023 and 9.2% in 2022. Core inflation is dece

40、lerating too, albeit at a slower pace, and is expected to reach 4.5% in 2024.15 The easing is reflected in the latest survey results, with expectations for high inflation being pared back across all regions.Figure 3. Inflation expectationsWhat is your expectation for inflation in the following geographies in 2024?Very lowLowModerateHighVery highSub-Saharan Africa856324Latin America and the Caribbean116326Middle East and North Africa175825South Asia4156319Central Asia4176317Europe20