未来50年的趋势报告(英).pdf
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1、Trends for the Next 50 YearsThis report was created under the direction of the IE Center for the Governance of ChangeTrends for the Next 50 YearsCenter for the Governance of ChangeReport highlights3conclusionintroductionChapter 1Chapter 2Chapter 3Chapter 4Chapter 5contributors690173349627396Emerging
2、 Technologies,Governance,and EthicsEconomy and ProsperityEnvironment and Climate CrisisExistential RisksEducation and the Future of KnowledgeIn the next 50 years,the citizens from G20 countries believe thathighlightshighlightsArtifjcial Intelligence will seamlessly integrate into our daily lives,enh
3、ancing productivity in the workplace.AIhealthcare biotechnologywealth distributionPersonalized healthcare,empowered by the advances in biotechnology,will be a beacon of hope.job market The population will be richer in the future,but the distribution of wealth will be more unequal.A changing job mark
4、et with potentially growing unemployment will require enhancing skills and learning new technologies.highlightsThe climate crisis will worsen,yet a government-led energy transition may pave the way for a greener future.collaborating with othersclimate crisisEducationholistic approachIn case of a cat
5、astrophic event that puts humanity at risk,citizens would try to counter the threat,mobilizing and collaborating with others.Education will play a pivotal role in shaping the future,with AI-led classrooms and emphasis on innovation and entrepreneurship.The Humanities will be essential in the future
6、of knowledge,underlining a holistic approach that combines technology with human values.introductionintroduction50 years ago,the futurist Alvin Toffmer wrote Future Shock,a book in which he introduced the notion of an acute disorientation caused by experiencing rapid change in a short time span.He t
7、heorized that the accelerated pace of technological and societal advancements would leave numerous individuals feeling alienated,leading to severe disorientation and heightened stress.Toffmer further argued that many of the societal challenges faced were direct repercussions of this Future Shock1.Am
8、ong Toffmers predictions,one of the most remarkable was the anticipation of the rise of the internet,foreseeing that a knowledge-based economy would eclipse the post-industrial age.This transition is today evident when considering that the digital economy has been growing at an annual rate of over 1
9、0%,outpacing the growth of the broader economy2.He also foresaw the development of cloning3.Nevertheless,not all of Toffmers predictions materialized.For instance,he posited the disintegration of cities.Today,however,about 56%of the global population,or 4.4 billion people,reside in urban areas.Proje
10、ctions suggest that by 2050,this fjgure will more than double,with nearly seven in ten people living in cities.Toffmer also believed that humans would inhabit artifjcial cities beneath the sea,a vision that remains unrealized.The decades in which Toffmer penned Future Shock witnessed the inception o
11、f futures thinking and foresight studies.Today,beyond mere predictions of future events,foresight empowers us to proactively shape our responses to the challenges and opportunities of the next 50 years,helping us prepare for an ever-evolving world.1 Toffmer,A.(1970).Future shock.Random House.2 World
12、 Bank.(2021).Digital economy overview.World Bank.https:/www.worldbank.org/en/topic/digital-economy/overview3 Schneider,K.(2016).Alvin Toffmer,Author of Future Shock,Dies at 87.The New York Times.https:/ Toffmer did not explicitly refer to foresight,his ideas about future shock laid the groundwork fo
13、r the discipline.The terminology often becomes muddled,with terms like foresight,“forecast”and prediction bandied about interchangeably,though inaccurately.Forecasting is the science of positing what tomorrow might hold based on the lessons of today.Its an everyday exercise,akin to the familiar sent
14、iment of wishing one had prior knowledge of current events4.Foresight,however,is not just a passive glimpse into the future;its an active exploration of potential tomorrows,where the aim is not just to predict but to prepare.Through a combination of scenarios,narratives,and immersive experiences,for
15、esight seeks to push boundaries,stepping beyond the conventional,and pre-empting both opportunities and pitfalls in our ever-evolving world54 Pundhir,A.(2020).Time Series Forecasting.Analytics Vidhya.https:/ Hajizadeh,A.,&Valliere,D.(2021).Entrepreneurial foresight:Discovery of future opportunities.
16、Futures,135,102876.https:/doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2021.102876What is foresight?introductionIn the next 50 years,change will be a constant.With the rise of generative AI and numerous disruptive technologies,our world will transform rapidly.To prepare humanity for these changes and ensure we navigat
17、e them effectively,it will be essential to engage in foresight exercises collectively,ensuring active participation from all stakeholders.The quantifjable benefjts of foresight are evident in todays landscape,as shown by many examples.In the last few years,UNICEF has been engaging in strategic fores
18、ight work,analyzing fjve signifjcant megatrends with implications for childrens well-being and UNICEFs mission.These trends include global health crises,inequality,evolving confmict dynamics,global migration,and the impact of technology on education and employment.UNICEFs child-centered foresight ap
19、proach has extended to various country offjces,such as India,where key trends have been used to develop contextual scenarios.These efforts have led to the identifjcation of 17 critical themes and the creation of a forward-looking action plan within the context of the country program6.“The future can
20、not be predicted,but futures can be invented.”Dennis Garbor(1971 Physics Nobel Prize Laureate).1Why foresight?introduction6 Gabor,D.(1963).Inventing the Future(Secker and Warburg,London,1st ed.).(pp.184-185).Another example is Netfmix,which initially was primarily a DVD rental company.However,the co
21、mpany noticed the societal shift away from physical media.In 2007,they invested in streaming technology and secured content licensing agreements,launching their online streaming service.By 2013,Netfmix had garnered 30 million streaming subscribers8.As of 2023,they have 238.39 million subscribers wor
22、ldwide9,leading to an annual revenue of 238.39 million in 202210.Foresight allowed Netfmix to pivot early and become a dominant force in the entertainment industry.Academic literature also supports this view.The paper“Corporate foresight and its impact on fjrm performance:A longitudinal analysis”by
23、Rohrbeck and Kum demonstrated that fjrms with higher future preparedness signifjcantly outperformed their peers,achieving a 33%higher profjtability and 200%higher growth in 2015.Conversely,fjrms with defjciencies in future preparedness faced a performance discount ranging from 37%to 108%,underscorin
24、g the crucial role of strategic foresight in fjrm performance11.7 School of International Futures(SOIF).(2021).Features of effective systemic foresight in governments around the world-full report(p.11).Government Offjce for Science.https:/assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/609aa813d3bf7f2888d18f
25、e3/effective-systemic-foresight-governments-report.pdf.0138 Van der Pijl,P.(2019).How Netfmix shift their business model from product to service,from DVD to streaming LinkedIn post.LinkedIn.https:/ Statista.(2023).Netfmix:number of subscribers worldwide 2023.https:/ Statista.(2023).Netfmix:quarterly
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