世界500强路演-高盛GoldmanSachs-20152-Deutsche Bank Global Financial Services Investor Conference_By_COO.pdf

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1、fwrootprojectsNYTreasuryInvestor_RelationsPresentationsConferencesDB Presentation 2015PresentationDB 2015 Presentation(6.2.15)FINAL v2.pptx Goldman Sachs Presentation to Deutsche Bank Global Financial Services Investor Conference June 2,2015 Gary D.Cohn President and Chief Operating Officer fwrootpr

2、ojectsNYTreasuryInvestor_RelationsPresentationsConferencesDB Presentation 2015PresentationDB 2015 Presentation(6.2.15)FINAL v2.pptx Cautionary Note on Forward-Looking Statements Todays presentation and any presentation summary on our website may include forward-looking statements.These statements ar

3、e not historical facts,but instead represent only the Firms beliefs regarding future events,many of which,by their nature,are inherently uncertain and outside of the Firms control.It is possible that the Firms actual results and financial condition may differ,possibly materially,from the anticipated

4、 results and financial condition indicated in these forward-looking statements.For a discussion of some of the risks and important factors that could affect the Firms future results and financial condition,see“Risk Factors”in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31,2014.You sho

5、uld also read the forward-looking disclaimers in our Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31,2015,particularly as it relates to capital and leverage ratios,and information on the calculation of non-GAAP financial measures that is posted on the Investor Relations portion of our website:.The statemen

6、ts in the presentation are current only as of its date,June 2,2015.2 fwrootprojectsNYTreasuryInvestor_RelationsPresentationsConferencesDB Presentation 2015PresentationDB 2015 Presentation(6.2.15)FINAL v2.pptx Corporates Financial Institutions Financial Sponsors Governments Public Authorities Boards

7、of Directors Entrepreneurs Mid/Late-Stage Ventures Public Equity Private Equity Middle Market Corporates PWM Clients Large-cap Corporates Corporates Asset Managers Hedge Funds Banks and Broker-Dealers Governments,Central Banks Pensions,Endowments,Foundations and Insurers Asset Managers Third Party D

8、istributors Insurance Companies Pension Funds High-net-worth Individuals Foundations Endowments 3 Investment Banking Institutional Client Services Investment Management Investing&Lending Our business is oriented to our clients Clients and their needs drive our business We have a diverse,global and b

9、road client franchise fwrootprojectsNYTreasuryInvestor_RelationsPresentationsConferencesDB Presentation 2015PresentationDB 2015 Presentation(6.2.15)FINAL v2.pptx Diversified Client-Driven Franchise Leading position and strong financial results in each of our businesses 4 Strong Fixed Income and Equi

10、ty performance with 82%and 73%of fund assets ranked in the top two quartiles over 3 and 5 years,respectively1 14,000 clients across PWM,Institutions and Third Party Distributors Global,broad and deep offerings;managing assets across all major asset classes and serving clients in over 120 countries D

11、elivers the whole firm to clients#1 ranked merger advisor and equity underwriting franchise More than 8,000 clients globally in nearly 100 countries across a broad range of industries Advice,capital raising,hedging and risk management solutions;leading defense franchise Operates as an extension of o

12、ur client franchise Generating strong risk-adjusted returns from Investing&Lending portfolios over the long-term Private Equity Corporate,PWM and Real Estate Lending Middle Market and Specialty Financing Investing in a Volcker-compliant manner Among the few global players with leading FICC and Equit

13、ies franchises,with 7,000 active clients Comprehensive capabilities across:FICC:Credit,Rates,Currencies,Mortgages and Commodities Equities:Cash,Derivatives and Prime Services Robust ROAE framework creates discipline and drives opportunities Investment Management 17%of 2014 Net Revenues Investment Ba

14、nking 19%of 2014 Net Revenues Institutional Client Services 44%of 2014 Net Revenues Investing&Lending 20%of 2014 Net Revenues 1 Performance calculated using period-end data for global long-term fund assets(non-money market)for all share classes ranked by Morningstar as of 1Q15 fwrootprojectsNYTreasu

15、ryInvestor_RelationsPresentationsConferencesDB Presentation 2015PresentationDB 2015 Presentation(6.2.15)FINAL v2.pptx 0.55x 0.95x 201120155 Peer Group Average Price to Book Value1,3 Competitive Dynamics Lagging ROEs drive strategic reassessments and more rational marketplace Peer Group Average Gross

16、 Leverage1,2 Peer Group Average ROE1 22x 17x 20111Q15-24%6%2%5%4%2011201220132014Increased capital requirements and tougher macro backdrop have led to asset reductions across the industry Deleveraging and improved credit profiles have boosted multiples,though ROEs continue to lag at an average of 4.

17、2%in 2014 Lagging returns have led many peers to rethink their strategic priorities and businesses 1 Peer data represents average for JPM,MS,C,BAC,CS,DB,UBS and BARC 2 Euro banks gross leverage calculation reflects IFRS,except for CS which reflects US GAAP 3 2015 through 5/22/15 73%GS Average ROE 20

18、11 to 2014:9.2%fwrootprojectsNYTreasuryInvestor_RelationsPresentationsConferencesDB Presentation 2015PresentationDB 2015 Presentation(6.2.15)FINAL v2.pptx Quest for Growth M&A Announced M&A%of Global Market Cap and GS Volume Share1 Top Announced M&A Sectors1 6 While dominant sectors have varied over

19、 different periods,GS held the#1 rank in announced M&A in 13 of the last 15 years GS average share 2000-2014:28%Participated in 18 of the 20 largest completed M&A deals since our IPO in 1999 Advisory net revenues in 1Q15 were 1.8x our closest peer4 1Q15 total investment banking backlog up significan

20、tly YoY GS Global Rank Time Period Leading Industry Industry%of Global Volume#1 2000-2002 TMT 35%#1 2003 FIG 22%#1 2004-2005 TMT 22%#1 2006-2007 Nat.Resources 23%#1 2008 FIG 24%#1,#2 2009-2012 Nat.Resources 28%#1 2013 TMT 23%#1 2014-2015YTD3 Nat.Resources 22%10.2%6.2%5.0%5.5%6.0%7.4%8.5%7.8%6.5%5.6%

21、5.5%5.1%5.4%4.3%5.5%(40)%(30)%(20)%(10)%0%10%20%30%40%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%20002002200420062008201020122014Total Announced M&A Volume as%of Global Market CapGS ShareAverage GS Share:28%2015YTD2:5.9%1 Source:M&A from Thomson Reuters.Global market cap from Factset 2 Annualized announced M&A as of 5/20/15

22、3 As of 5/20/15;4 Peers include JPM,MS,C,BAC,CS,DB and UBS Announced M&A%of Global Market Cap GS Share Long-term Performance Current Performance fwrootprojectsNYTreasuryInvestor_RelationsPresentationsConferencesDB Presentation 2015PresentationDB 2015 Presentation(6.2.15)FINAL v2.pptx$0.4$1.5 Trough:

23、2002-2003Peak:2006-2007$0.7$1.3 Trough:2009-20102014Quest for Growth Cross-border Cross-Border Announced M&A Activity($trillion)1 Cross-Border Opportunity:Comparing M&A Cycles($trillion)1,3 7+4.3x+1.8x Cross-border transactions have increased in share in the recent upcycle In the last M&A cycle,cros

24、s-border transactions grew 4.3x from the trough,vs.only 1.8x in the current cycle GS historically has shown leadership,with almost 30%share of cross-border transactions since 2000 GS has ranked#1 in announced cross-border transactions in 12 of the last 15 years 33%36%30%26%32%34%34%45%38%27%37%35%35

25、%30%38%$0.0$1.0$2.0$3.0$4.0$5.02000 2001 20022003 2004 2005 2006 20072008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132014Global Volume ex-Cross BorderCross-Border2015YTD2:41%1 Source:Thomson Reuters 2 As of 5/20/15 3 Trough and peak periods represent average annual announced cross-border M&A volume during the period f

26、wrootprojectsNYTreasuryInvestor_RelationsPresentationsConferencesDB Presentation 2015PresentationDB 2015 Presentation(6.2.15)FINAL v2.pptx 201020140.7 1.2 200820141 Source:Federal Reserve;represents non-financial corporate bond market.US corporate bonds represent 58%of US credit 2 Source:ECB.Represe

27、nts non-financial corporate bond market in all countries in the European Monetary Union;EU corporate bonds represent 11%of EU credit 3 Source:Bloomberg 8+3.5x+75%GS European HY Debt Underwriting Volumes$3.0$4.4 20082014+48%Significant opportunity in European bank disintermediation Growth in European

28、 corporate bond market penetration to US levels would equate to an increase of 5 times1,2 New EU leverage constraints and competitor retrenchment have opened new opportunities GS Europe HY Debt U/W rank averaged#3 from 2011 to 2014,up 4 spots from an average of#7 from 2005 to 20103 Low Interest Rate

29、s How GS helps Investment Banking clients navigate the low rate environment US Corporate Bond Market Growth($tn)1 European Corporate Bond Market Growth(tn)2 fwrootprojectsNYTreasuryInvestor_RelationsPresentationsConferencesDB Presentation 2015PresentationDB 2015 Presentation(6.2.15)FINAL v2.pptx$9$5

30、7$18 20091Q159$65$114 20091Q15+1.8x GS is a leader in global fixed income and asset liability management Our insurance clients have increasingly sought our advice and risk management expertise GS Asset Management Insurance Assets grew 1.8x since 2009 Industry projected to grow more than 1.6x over ne

31、xt 5 years2 Our advisory clients also include a growing number of corporate pensions seeking outsourcing solutions Announced acquisition of$18bn Pacific Global Advisors pension management and solutions portfolio GS Asset Management Insurance Assets($bn)Global Outsourced Insurance Assets($trillion)2

32、1 Pacific Global Advisors acquisition announced in April 2015 2 Source:The Insurance Investment Outsourcing Report,November 2014.Data from 2014 to 2019 represent estimates GS Asset Management Advisory&Solutions Assets($bn)+8.3x Pacific Global acquisition1 Low Interest Rates How GS helps Asset Manage

33、ment clients navigate the low rate environment$1.1$1.2$1.3$1.4$1.5$1.6$1.8$2.0$2.1$2.3$2.6$1.0$1.4$1.8$2.2$2.620092010201120122013201420152016201720182019Insurance&Advisory Incremental AUS Opportunity:$100-150bn fwrootprojectsNYTreasuryInvestor_RelationsPresentationsConferencesDB Presentation 2015Pr

34、esentationDB 2015 Presentation(6.2.15)FINAL v2.pptx+28%CommoditiesVolatilityCommoditiesNet Revenues+25%1.8x Interest RateVolatilityInterest RatesNet Revenues+41%2.7x CurrenciesVolatilityCurrenciesNet RevenuesDiverging Monetary Policy Revenue is leveraged to higher volatility in a normal environment

35、10 In these examples,avg.increase of 30%in volatility translated into avg.quarterly net revenue growth of 2.6x Cold weather drives significant increase in natural gas prices,better operating environment and increased opportunities Expectation of a Federal Reserve shift to higher rates vs.accommodati

36、ve monetary policy elsewhere drives global activity Pick-up in volatility amid idiosyncratic market events and strong-dollar trends drives activity Recent performance:Volatility and Quarterly GS ICS Product Net Revenues1 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 1 GS net revenues versus trailing 4 quarter average;volatility i

37、ndices versus prior quarter-end.Commodities volatility per the MLCX Index;Currencies volatility per the CVIX Index;Interest Rate volatility per the MOVE Index 3.2x fwrootprojectsNYTreasuryInvestor_RelationsPresentationsConferencesDB Presentation 2015PresentationDB 2015 Presentation(6.2.15)FINAL v2.p

38、ptx Technology-Driven Change Technology is critical for us and our clients SecDB Tracking risk across the firm 23 billion prices calculated daily across 2.8mm positions and 500k market scenarios 7.5 quintillion instructions executed around the clock Hundreds of stress tests run on a regular basis RO

39、AE framework Dynamic top-down and bottom-up capital attribution process Full capital and cost allocations enable real view of returns Symphony Cloud-based,encrypted platform for secure instant communication and content Marquee GS open architecture platform for electronic delivery of content to insti

40、tutional clients including:Ideas and intellectual capital Market analytics and data Trade execution Communicate Ideas Share Analysis Disseminate Pricing and Request Quotes Facilitate Pre-Trade and Post-Trade Workflows$11 Commercial Opportunities Risk Management&Capital Efficiency fwrootprojectsNYTre

41、asuryInvestor_RelationsPresentationsConferencesDB Presentation 2015PresentationDB 2015 Presentation(6.2.15)FINAL v2.pptx Technology-Driven Change GS Marquee supports all phases of our clients transaction life-cycle 12 Market Data&Research GS Markets Sales&Pre-Trade SIMON Execution Marquee Trader Pos

42、t-Trade Trade Tracker Portfolio Construction Strategy Studio fwrootprojectsNYTreasuryInvestor_RelationsPresentationsConferencesDB Presentation 2015PresentationDB 2015 Presentation(6.2.15)FINAL v2.pptx Quest for Growth Low Interest Rates Diverging Monetary Policy Technology-Driven Change Growth of Ca

43、pital Markets Global Demographic Trends “New Oil Order”Consolidation of Asset Management Other Important Trends Affecting our Clients 13 Our Clients Additional trends affecting our clients create further opportunities for GS Leading position across all of our businesses Strengthened financial profil

44、e Expense discipline and capital efficiency Improved competitive positioning Positioned for revenue leverage GS Key Highlights Significant operating leverage fwrootprojectsNYTreasuryInvestor_RelationsPresentationsConferencesDB Presentation 2015PresentationDB 2015 Presentation(6.2.15)FINAL v2.pptx Goldman Sachs Presentation to Deutsche Bank Global Financial Services Investor Conference June 2,2015 Gary D.Cohn President and Chief Operating Officer