JonathanMarks_2017X[莫娜 查拉比][甄别不可信统计数据的3种方法].pdf

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1、www.XiYuS锡育软件Twenty years ago,when I was a barrister and human rightslawyer in full-time legal practice in London,and the highestcourt in the land still convened,some would say by anaccident of history,in this building here,20 年前,我担任讼务律师和人权律师时,在伦敦从事全职的法律实务,英国最高法院依然在这里开庭;有人说这是因为历史上的一个意外;就在这一栋建筑里,00:1

2、2I met a young man who had just quit his job in the BritishForeign Office.我遇见了一个男生,他刚从英国外交部辞去工作。00:28When I asked him,Why did you leave,我问他:为什么你要离开？00:33he told me this story.他告诉我下面的故事。00:36He had gone to his boss one morning and said,Lets dosomething about human rights abuses in China.有一天早上,他问他的上司说

3、:我们可以为中国人权问题做点事吗？00:38And his boss had replied,We cant do anything abouthuman rights abuses in China because we have traderelations with China.他的上司回答他:我们无法为中国 人权问题做任何事,因为我们跟中国 有贸易的往来关系。00:46So my friend went away with his tail between his legs,and sixmonths later,he returned again to his boss,and he

4、 said thistime,Lets do something about human rights in Burma,所以我的朋友悻悻地离开,六个月以后他再去见他的上司,这次他这么说:让我们为缅甸(Burma)人权问题做点事好吗？00:54as it was then called.那时还是这么称呼这个国家。（现称Myanmar）01:06His boss once again paused and said,Oh,but we cant doanything about human rights in Burma because we donthave any trade relatio

5、ns with Burma.他的上司再次停下来,然后说:哦,可是我们没办法 为缅甸人权问题做任何事啊,因为我们跟缅甸没有 半点贸易关系。01:08barrister:n.律师;(加拿大)出庭律师(等于arrister-at-law);(英)(有资格出席高等法庭并辩护的)专门律师 full-time:adj.专职的;全日制的;全部时间的 convened:v.召集;集合;召唤(convene的过去分词形式)abuses:v.滥用;虐待;辱骂(abuse的三单形式)/n.滥用;虐待;暴行(abuse的复数)Burma:n.缅甸(东南亚国家)(Laughter)This was the moment

6、 he knew he had to leave.（笑声）当下那一刻,他了解他必须辞去工作了。01:18It wasnt just the hypocrisy that got to him.那不只是那种 假仁假义的感觉袭上他,01:21It was the unwillingness of his government to engage inconflict with other governments,intense discussions,all thewhile,innocent people were being harmed.而是他对于这个政府,不愿去与其他政府发生冲突,不愿意去

7、进行密切的商谈,才使他死了心。因为与此同时,无辜的人正在受到伤害。01:24We are constantly told that conflict is bad that compromiseis good;that conflict is bad but consensus is good;thatconflict is bad and collaboration is good.我们经常被告知:与人发生冲突是不好的,妥协才是好的;冲突是坏的,达成共识是好的;冲突是不对的,合作才是好的。01:37But in my view,thats far too simple a vision of

8、 the world.但是以我的观点来看,对与这个世界而言,这些话显得太单纯了。01:55We cannot know whether conflict is bad unless we know whois fighting,why they are fighting and how they are fighting.我们无从知道,冲突是否不好,除非我们了解是谁在奋斗,为什么他们要抗争,和他们如何抗战。01:59And compromises can be thoroughly rotten if they harmpeople who are not at the table,peopl

9、e who are vulnerable,disempowered,people whom we have an obligation toprotect.妥协可能会彻底腐败,假如它们伤害到 没有在谈判桌上的人,那些很脆弱和被剥夺权利的人;那些我们有义务去保护的人。02:10hypocrisy:n.虚伪;伪善 unwillingness:n.不愿意;不情愿 intense:adj.强烈的；紧张的；非常的；热情的 harmed:损害/伤害/免于伤害/将不受损害 compromise:vt.妥协;危害/vi.妥协;让步/n.妥协,和解;折衷 consensus:n.一致；舆论；合意collabor

10、ation:n.合作;勾结;通敌 compromises:n.妥协;和解;折中方案(compromise的复数)/v.妥协;折中(compromise的第三人称单数);退让 thoroughly:adv.彻底地,完全地 vulnerable:adj.易受攻击的，易受的攻击；易受伤害的；有弱点的disempowered:vt.剥夺(个人或团体)的选择与行动权；使失去重要性(或影响力等)(disempower的过去式)Now,you might be somewhat skeptical of a lawyer arguingabout the benefits of conflict and c

11、reating problems forcompromise,but I did also qualify as a mediator,and these现在你可能会对眼前 这位律师感到怀疑:他在这里谈论冲突的好处,向妥协发难,但是我的资格的确足够作为一个和事佬,最近我花了很多时间免费演讲,谈论自由和伦理道德的关系。02:24TED演讲者：Jonathan Marks|莫娜 查拉比:演讲标题：In praise of conflict|甄别不可信统计数据的3种方法内容概要：Conflict is bad;compromise,consensus and collaboration are go

12、od-or so we.retold.Lawyer and bioethicist Jonathan Marks challenges this conventional wisdom,showinghow governments can jeopardize public health,human rights and the environment when theypartner with industry.An important,timely reminder that common good and common groundare not the same thing.有时候很难

13、知道哪些统计数字是可信的，但我们也不能完全忽略这些数据正相反，我们要学会看到这些统计数字背后的东西。在这场愉轻松、有趣的演讲中，数据记者（data journalist）莫娜 查拉比分享了几点实用的建议，它将帮助你质疑、解释并且真正理解这些统计数字的含义。compromise,but I did also qualify as a mediator,and thesedays,I spend my time giving talks about ethics for free.讲,谈论自由和伦理道德的关系。02:24So as my bank manager likes to remind m

14、e,Im downwardlymobile.所以我的银行经理提醒我,说我是在向下沉沦。02:38But if you accept my argument,it should change not just theway we lead our personal lives,which I wish to put to oneside for the moment,but it will change the way we thinkabout major problems of public health and the environment.但是如果你接受我的论点,它不但可以改变 我们过

15、生活的方式 这个话题我暂时先把它放到一旁;也可以改变我们对于公卫和环境等 主要问题的思考方式。02:44Let me explain.让我解释一下。03:01Every middle schooler in the United States,my 12-year-olddaughter included,learns that there are three branches ofgovernment,the legislative,the executive and the judicialbranch.美国的每一位国中生,包括我 12 岁的女儿在内,都知道政府有三个分支,它们分别是立法部

16、门、行政部门和司法单位。03:04James Madison wrote,If there is any principle more sacredin our Constitution,and indeed in any free constitution,thanany other,it is that which separates the legislative,theexecutive and the judicial powers.詹姆斯麦迪逊在他的书中写到:在我们的宪法中,应该说是在任何自由的宪法中,如果有什么原则,比起其他原则更为神圣的话;就是那种将立法、行政、司法权,个别分开

17、独立出来的原则。03:17skeptical:adj.怀疑的；怀疑论的，不可知论的 mediator:n.调停者;传递者;中介物 ethics:n.伦理学;伦理观;道德标准 putto:v.应用;靠岸 legislative:adj.立法的;有立法权的/n.立法权;立法机构 judicial:adj.公正的,明断的;法庭的;审判上的sacred:adj.神的；神圣的；宗教的；庄严的Now,the framers were not just concerned about theconcentration and exercise of power.宪法制订者不只是关注 权力的集中和实行而已。0

18、3:35They also understood the perils of influence.他们也理解影响力的危险。03:43Judges cannot determine the constitutionality of laws if theyparticipate in making those laws,nor can they hold the otherbranches of government accountable if they collaboratewith them or enter into close relationships with them.法官不可以

19、决定法律本身是否合宪,假使法官本身参与制订法律的话;他们也无法对政府 其他分支机构进行追究,如果他们之间有合作关系,或是与他们建立密切的关系。03:48The Constitution is,as one famous scholar put it,aninvitation to struggle.宪法,正如一位 着名学者所说的,是一封斗争的邀请函。04:07And we the people are served when those branches do,indeed,struggle with each other.而老百姓是被影响的对象,假如那些政府机构 彼此之间互相对抗的话。04:

20、14Now,we recognize the importance of struggle not just in thepublic sector between our branches of government.我们理解斗争的重要性,不仅是在我们政府分支的公众部门而已,04:23We also know it too in the private sector,in relationshipsamong corporations.我们也知道在私人公司的部门之间,也存在同样问题。04:32framers:n.制宪者;筹划者(framer的复数)perils:n.事故;风险(peril的复

21、数)/v.冒险;置于危险中(peril的第三人称单数)constitutionality:n.符合宪法;立宪 participate in:参加;分享 accountable:adj.有责任的;有解释义务的;可解释的collaborate:vi.合作;勾结,通敌 enter into:进入;讨论;成为的一部分;研讨;分享;体谅 corporations:n.贸易公司,经企业(corporation的复数形式)Lets imagine that two American airlines get together andagree that they will not drop the pric

22、e of their economy classairfares below 250 dollars a ticket.让我们想像一下,如果两家美国航空公司集合在一起,彼此同意不要把经济舱的机票 价格降到每张250 美元以下,04:39That is collaboration,some would say collusion,notcompetition,and we the people are harmed because we paymore for our tickets.那就是合作,有人把它称之为共谋,而不是竞争,那么遭殃的是大家,因为我们要付出 更高的价格来买机票。04:51Im

23、agine similarly two airlines were to say,Look,Airline A,well take the route from LA to Chicago,假想一下,同样的 两家航空公司如果这样说:航空公司甲,我们想飞 洛杉矶到芝加哥的航线。05:02and Airline B says,Well take the route from Chicago to DC,and we wont compete.然后航空公司乙说:那么我们就不用互相竞争了。05:09Once again,thats collaboration or collusion instead

24、ofcompetition,and we the people are harmed.这同样也是一种合作或共谋,而不是竞争,受到伤害的还是大家。05:14So we understand the importance of struggle when it comesto relationships between branches of government,the publicsector.就政府公众部门之间的关系而论,我们知道抗争的重要性。就私人公司各单位之间的关系而论,05:23We also understand the importance of conflict when it

25、comesto relationships among corporations,the private sector.我们也知道冲突的重要性。但是我们忽略的是,公家单位与私营企業之间的关系。05:36But where we have forgotten it is in the relationshipsbetween the public and the private.但是我们忽略的是,公家单位与私营企業之间的关系。05:46get together:聚会;聚集;收集;积累 airfares:飞机票价(airfare的名词复数)collusion:n.勾结;共谋And governme

26、nts all over the world are collaborating withindustry to solve problems of public health and theenvironment,often collaborating with the very corporations全世界的政府都在与工業界合作,解决公共卫生和环境的问题,通常合作的对象是那些制造出 更多问题,或是使问题恶化的公司。05:53environment,often collaborating with the very corporationsthat are creating or exac

27、erbating the problems they aretrying to solve.We are told that these relationships are a win-win.我们被告知这些关系 是一个双赢的关系。06:10But what if someone is losing out?但是如果一方有利益损失怎么办呢？06:17Let me give you some examples.让我给你一些案例。06:22A United Nations agency decided to address a seriousproblem:poor sanitation in s

28、chools in rural India.联合国的一个机构,决定处理一个严峻的问题:印度乡下学校极差的卫生状况。06:25They did so not just in collaboration with national and localgovernments but also with a television company and with amajor multinational soda company.他们不仅与国家和当地政府合作,也和一家电视公司合作,还有一家跨国汽水公司合作,06:34In exchange for less than one million dolla

29、rs,thatcorporation received the benefits of a months-longpromotional campaign including a 12-hour telethon allusing the companys logo and color scheme.以交换低于 100 万美元的经费,让那家公司获得一个月的促销活动,包含一个持续 12 个小时的 电视募款活动,全部使用该公司的商标和配色设计。06:45collaborating:n.合作;协作/v.合作(collaborate的ing形式);协调 exacerbating:v.恶化(exacer

30、bate的现在分词)win-win:adj.双赢的;互利互惠的 sanitation:n.医环境卫生;卫生设备;下水道设施 rural:adj.农村的，乡下的；田园的，有乡村风味的multinational:adj.跨国公司的;多国的/n.跨国公司 In exchange for:作为的交换 promotional:adj.促销的;增进的;奖励的 telethon:n.长时间连续电视广播节目This was an arrangement which was totally understandablefrom the corporations point of view.从该公司的角度来看,这

31、种安排是完全可以理解的。它强化了公司的名誉,06:59It enhances the reputation of the company and it createsbrand loyalty for its products.它强化了公司的名誉,也创造了他们产品的品牌忠诚度。07:06But in my view,this is profoundly problematic for theintergovernmental agency,an agency that has a mission topromote sustainable living.但是从我的眼光来看,这对于此跨政府的机构

32、 会造成深远的问题,这个机构的使命是提倡永续生活。07:13By increasing consumption of sugar-sweetened beveragesmade from scarce local water supplies and drunk out ofplastic bottles in a country that is already grappling withobesity,this is neither sustainable from a public health noran environmental point of view.透过增加含糖饮料的销售量

33、,消耗当地已经匮乏的水资源,来制造塑胶瓶装饮料,在一个已经陷入肥胖症困境的国家,站在公共卫生的立场来看,这既不合乎永续性,也不合乎环保的观点。07:23And in order to solve one public health problem,the agencyis sowing the seeds of another.为了解决一个公共卫生问题,这个机构埋下另一个坏的种子。07:40understandable:adj.可以理解的;可以了解的 point of view:观点;见地;立场 enhances:提高(enhance的第三人称单数)profoundly:adv.深刻地;深深地

34、;极度地 problematic:adj.问题的;有疑问的;不确定的 intergovernmental:adj.政府间的sustainable:adj.可以忍受的；足可支撑的；养得起的；可持续的 beverages:n.饮料;酒水;饮料类(beverage的复数形式)grappling:n.擒拿;探线;锚定/v.抓钩;扭打;握牢(grapple的ing形式)obesity:n.肥大,肥胖 sowing:n.播种/v.播种(sow的ing形式)www.XiYuS锡育软件This is just one example of dozens I discovered in researchinga

35、 book on the relationships between government andindustry.这只是我在书中搜寻 政府与工業关系的时候,很多例子的其中一个。07:49I could also have told you about the initiatives in parks inLondon and throughout Britain,involving the samecompany,promoting exercise,or indeed of the Britishgovernment creating voluntary pledges in partne

36、rship withindustry instead of regulating industry.我还可以告诉你另外一个提案,要在伦敦和整个英国的 公园倡导运动,也牵涉到同一家公司,或实际上,是由英国政府出面,而不是向工業界提出规范。07:58These collaborations or partnerships have become theparadigm in public health,and once again,they make sensefrom the point of view of industry.这些合作或合伙关系,已经成为公共健康的范例,而再一次,以工業界的角度

37、来看,他们让此种作法合理化,08:17It allows them to frame public health problems and theirsolutions in ways that are least threatening to,mostconsonant with their commercial interests.容许他们框架 公共卫生问题及解决方法,采用对他们最少威胁的手法,而且大部分都与他们的 商業利益一致。08:26So obesity becomes a problem of individual decision-making,of personal behav

38、ior,personal responsibility andlack of physical activity.所以肥胖的困扰,成为个人抉择的问题,或个人的行为问题,是个人的责任还有缺乏运动的问题。08:35initiatives:n.积极性;主动权(initiative的复数);创始 involving:v.涉及;包括;使陷于(involve的ing形式)promoting:促进/晋升/促销 voluntary:adj.自愿的；志愿的；自发的；故意的/n.志愿者；自愿行动 pledges:n.保证,誓言;抵押;抵押品,典当物/vt.保证,许诺;用抵押;举杯祝健康 regulating:vt

39、.调节;校正(regulate的现在分词)collaborations:n.协作(collaboration的复数)paradigm:n.范例;词形变化表 make sense:有意义;讲得通;言之有理 consonant:adj.辅音的;一致的;和谐的/n.辅音;辅音字母 decision-making:adj.决策的/n.决策It is not a problem,when framed this way,of a multinationalfood system involving major corporations.照这样的框架来看,这根本不是 牵涉大企業的跨国食品系统问题。08:4

40、7And again,I dont blame industry.再说一次,我并不怪罪工業界。08:55Industry naturally engages in strategies of influence topromote its commercial interests.工業界很自然地 会运用策略发挥影响力,为了谋求商業利益而进行促销活动。08:56But governments have a responsibility to developcounterstrategies to protect us and the common good.但是政府有责任,研究对策,来保护我们,

41、和我们的公共利益。09:03The mistake that governments are making when theycollaborate in this way with industry is that they conflate thecommon good with common ground.When you collaborate with industry,you necessarily put offthe table things that might promote the common good towhich industry will not agree.当

42、你跟工業界合作的时候,你必须先把那些促进公共利益的事情,先从谈判桌上移走,09:28Industry will not agree to increased regulation unless itbelieves this will stave off even more regulation or perhapsknock some competitors out of the market.他们不会同意加强对他们的约束,除非他们相信这种合作,可以让他们避开更多的管制,或让他们的竞争对手 被踢出市场之外。09:38framed:adj.遭到陷害的;有构架的/v.制定;建造;给加外框(fra

43、me的过去分词)engages:从事 strategies:n.策略,战略(strategy的复数形式)conflate:vt.合并;异文合并 put off:推迟;扔掉;阻止 stave:n.狭板;梯级;诗句;五线谱表/vt.延缓;击穿;凿孔于;压扁/vi.破碎;穿孔 competitors:n.竞争对手;劳经竞争者(competitor的复数)Nor can companies agree to do certain things,for exampleraise the prices of their unhealthy products,because thatwould violat

44、e competition law,as weve established.公司也不见得愿意去做某一些事,例如提高他们不健康产品的售价,因为那样会违反公平交易法,那是我们已经建立完成的。09:49So our governments should not confound the common goodand common ground,especially when common groundmeans reaching agreement with industry.所以我们的政府,不应该将公共利益 和共同点混淆在一起,特别是当共同点代表的是 与工業界达成的协议的时候。10:00I wan

45、t to give you another example,moving from high-profile collaboration to something that is below ground bothliterally and figuratively:the hydraulic fracturing of naturalgas.我想再给你一个例子,我们已经讲过备受瞩目的合作计画,再来是有关台面下合作的案例;从字面上或用比喻的方式来看。那就是水力压裂法开采天然气。10:12Imagine that you purchase a plot of land not knowing t

46、hemineral rights have been sold.假想一下你购买了一块土地,但是不知道采矿权已经被卖掉了,10:25This is before the fracking boom.这是水力压裂法榮景之前发生的事。10:31You build your dream home on that plot,and shortlyafterwards,you discover that a gas company is building awell pad on your land.你在你的产業上 盖了一栋梦想的房子,盖好之后没多久,你发现天然气公司 在你的土地上兴建钻井平台,10:34

47、unhealthy:adj.不健康的;危险的;有害身心健康的 violate:vt.违反;侵犯,妨碍;亵渎 confound:vt.使混淆;挫败;讨厌;使混乱high-profile:adj.高调的;备受瞩目的;知名度高的 figuratively:adv.比喻地;象征性地 hydraulic:adj.液压的;水力的;水力学的 fracturing:n.水力压裂;破碎;龟裂/v.使破裂;粉碎(fracture的ing形式)fracking:n.水力压裂That was the plight of the Hallowich family.这其实正是哈洛维奇家族 以前碰到的困境。10:44Wit

48、hin a very short period of time,they began to complainof headaches,of sore throats,of itchy eyes,in addition tothe interference of the noise,vibration and the bright lightsfrom the flaring of natural gas.在非常短的一段时间内,他们开始抱怨头痛、喉咙痛、眼睛痒,除此之外还有噪音震动的干扰,和天然气燃烧时发出的亮光等。10:49They were very vocal in their criti

49、cisms,and then they fellsilent.他们激烈地批评这些事,然后他们突然噤声了。11:04And thanks to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette,where this imageappeared,and one other newspaper,we discovered why theyfell silent.多亏匹兹堡邮报,才有上面的那张图像,加上另一家报社,我们才瞭解他们不再发声的原因,11:10The newspapers went to the court and said,What happenedto the Hallowiche

50、s?这家报社跑到法院去问:哈洛维奇家族到底如何了？11:16And it turned out the Hallowiches had made a secretsettlement with the gas operators,and it was a take-it-or-leave-it settlement.结果发现哈洛维奇家族,已经私下与天然气業者 达成秘密协议,11:20plight:n.困境;境况;誓约/vt.保证;约定 complain of:n.抱怨;抗议 headaches:n.内科头痛;头疼;棘手的局面(headache的复数)itchy:adj.发痒的;渴望的 in a