MartinRees_2005G[马丁.里斯][这是我们最后的世纪吗].pdf

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1、www.XiYuS锡育软件If you take 10,000 people at random,9,999 have somethingin common:their interests in business lie on or near theEarths surface.如果你随机挑选出10000个人，其中的9999个人会有如下共性：他们对商业的兴趣显而易见00:12The odd one out is an astronomer,and I am one of thatstrange breed.余下的那位怪人是天文学家，而我就是这个奇特物种中的一员。00:23(Laughter)M

2、y talk will be in two parts.Ill talk first as anastronomer,and then as a worried member of the humanrace.（笑声）我的发言将分为两部分。首先作为一个天文学家发言 之后作为人类社会中忧心忡忡的一员00:27But lets start off by remembering that Darwin showed howwere the outcome of four billion years of evolution.让我们首先回顾达尔文所指出的：我们人类只是40亿年进化的产物。00:37An

3、d what we try to do in astronomy and cosmology is to goback before Darwins simple beginning,to set our Earth in acosmic context.我们进行天文学和宇宙学研究要做的 就是回溯到达尔文的理论原点 将我们的地球置于宇宙的背景中。00:46And let me just run through a few slides.请允许我展示几张图片。00:56This was the impact that happened last week on a comet.这是发生在上周的一

4、次撞击彗星实验。00:59at random:胡乱地;随便地;任意地 in common:共同的;共有的 lie on:位于;压迫;依赖;折磨 odd:adj.奇数的;古怪的;剩余的;临时的;零散的/n.奇数;怪人;奇特的事物 astronomer:n.天文学家 breed:vi.繁殖;饲养;产生/vt.繁殖;饲养;养育,教育;引起/n.生物品种;种类,类型 start off:出发,开始 astronomy:n.天文学 cosmology:n.天宇宙论,天宇宙学 cosmic:adj.宇宙的(等于cosmical)run through:跑着穿过;浏览;刺;挥霍 comet:n.天彗星If

5、theyd sent a nuke,it would have been rather morespectacular than what actually happened last Monday.倘若他们发射的是颗核弹的话，其景象将会更加壮观。图片显示的是上周一的实景。01:04So thats another project for NASA.那是NASA（美国国家航空航天局）的又一个项目。01:09Thats Mars from the European Mars Express,and at NewYear.这张是在新年时由欧洲“火星快车号”探测器拍到的火星。01:11This ar

6、tists impression turned into reality when a parachutelanded on Titan,Saturns giant moon.艺术家的创想变成了现实，当一个着陆装置降落在土星的巨大的卫星泰坦（土卫六）上。01:16It landed on the surface.This is pictures taken on the waydown.它降落在土卫六的表面。这张图片拍摄于着陆途中。01:25That looks like a coastline.那些看起来像是海岸线。01:29It is indeed,but the ocean is liq

7、uid methane-thetemperature minus 170 degrees centigrade.它们确实是，但“海洋”是液态的甲烷-温度是零下170摄氏度。01:30If we go beyond our solar system,weve learned the starsarent twinkly points of light.如果我们放眼到太阳系之外，我们已经知道恒星并不是不断眨眼的光点。01:38Each one is like a sun with a retinue of planets orbitingaround it,and we can see place

8、s where stars are forming,likethe Eagle Nebula.We see stars dying.每一颗恒星都像太阳，伴有若干行星环绕。我们可以看到恒星形成的区域 像天鹰星云（M16）。我们还能看到衰竭的恒星。01:44nuke:n.核武器;核能发电厂;核潜艇/vt.以核武器攻击/adj.核武器的 parachute:n.降落伞/vi.跳伞/空投 Titan:n.巨人;提坦;太阳神 coastline:n.海岸线 methane:n.有化甲烷;能源沼气 go beyond:v.超出;胜过 solar system:天太阳系 twinkly:adj.闪耀的,耀眼

9、的,微笑的;欣喜的 retinue:n.随行人员;扈从 orbiting:v.航天轨道运行;轨道运动;转圈(orbit的ing形式)Nebula:n.星云;角膜云翳In six billion years,the sun will look like that.六十亿年后，太阳将变成这样。01:55And some stars die spectacularly in a supernova explosion,leaving remnants like that.有些恒星在壮观的超新星爆发中消亡，遗留下这样的残余。01:58On a still bigger scale,we see ent

10、ire galaxies of stars.在更大的范围里，我们看到恒星组成的星系。02:04We see entire ecosystems where gas is being recycled.我们看到完整的生态系统，看到气体被回收利用。02:08And to the cosmologist,these galaxies are just the atoms,asit were,of the large-scale universe.对于宇宙学家来说，这些星系只不过是组成大规模宇宙空间的原子。02:11This picture shows a patch of sky so small

11、that it would takeabout 100 patches like it to cover the full moon in the sky.这张照片展示了一小片天空，它是如此之小，需要用大约100块同样尺寸 拼接在一起才能遮住天空中的满月。02:19TED演讲者：Sir Martin Rees|马丁.里斯演讲标题：Earth in its final century?|这是我们最后的世纪吗?内容概要：Martin Rees,one of the world.s most eminent astronomers,is a professor ofcosmology and ast

12、rophysics at the University of Cambridge and the UK.s Astronomer Royal.Heis one of our key thinkers on the future of humanity in the cosmos.作为一个天文学家，同时作为人类社会中忧心忡忡的一员，马丁.里斯爵士从宇宙全景的视角考察我们的星球和其未来。他敦促要采取行动以避免科技发展过程中可能出现的毁灭性后果Through a small telescope,this would look quite blank,butyou see here hundreds

13、of little,faint smudges.用台稍小的天文望远镜，这个区域看似空无一物。但是现在你能看到这里有成百个微小的暗淡色块。02:28spectacularly:adv.壮观地;引人注目地 supernova:n.天超新星 remnants:n.残余;残留物(remnant的复数)/adj.残存的ecosystems:n.生态系统(ecosystem的复数)recycled:n.再生纸;回收站/adj.环境回收利用的;可循环再造的 cosmologist:n.宇宙论者,宇宙学家 atoms:n.物原子(atom的复数)as it were:可以说是,似乎就是;好像 large-sc

14、ale:adj.大规模的,大范围的;大比例尺的 take about:领游览;带某人出入娱乐场所:patches:n.补丁;斑块(patch的复数);修补程序 smudges:n.污迹;污点(smudge的复数)Each is a galaxy,fully like ours or Andromeda,which looks sosmall and faint because its light has taken 10 billion lightyears to get to us.每个都是一个星系，类似我们的银河系或仙女星系。它们看似微小和暗淡是因为 它们发出的光经历了上百亿光年才到达这里

15、。02:34The stars in those galaxies probably dont have planetsaround them.那些星系中的恒星可能没有行星环绕。02:44The scant chance of life there-thats because theres beenno time for the nuclear fusion in stars to make silicon andcarbon and iron,the building blocks of planets and of life.存在生命的可能性甚微-因为在那无足够的时间允许恒星进行核聚变，产

16、生行星和生命所必需的构造元素，如硅、碳和铁等。02:49We believe that all of this emerged from a Big Bang-a hot,dense state.So how did that amorphous Big Bang turn intoour complex cosmos?我们相信所有这一切都源于一次大爆炸-一个极热、极密态。那么，那个无定形的大爆炸是如何演变成我们复杂的宇宙的呢？03:02Im going to show you a movie simulation 16 powers of 10faster than real time,wh

17、ich shows a patch of the universewhere the expansions have subtracted out.我将播放一段模拟影片，播放速度是实际时间的10的16次方倍速，演示宇宙的一小部分如何在膨胀中延展开来。03:14But you see,as time goes on in giga-years at the bottom,youwill see structures evolve as gravity feeds on small,denseirregularities,and structures develop.你可以看到，底部显示的时间以十

18、亿年为单位，随着引力逐渐作用于细微的不均匀密度分布，空间物质结构缓慢地演化出来。03:23Andromeda:n.天仙女座;安德洛墨达(希腊神话中的埃塞俄比亚公主)scant:adj.不足的;缺乏的;勉强够的/vt.减少;节省;限制fusion:n.融合;熔化;熔接;融合物;物核聚变 amorphous:adj.无定形的;无组织的;物非晶形的 turn into:v.变成;进入cosmos:n.宇宙;和谐;秩序;大波斯菊 simulation:n.仿真;模拟;模仿;假装 expansions:n.数扩展(expansion的复数形式)subtracted:n.无进位加减法器/v.减去;去掉(s

19、ubtract的过去分词)feeds:n.畜牧饲料;一餐(feed的复数)/v.提供(feed的第三人称单数形式);饲养 irregularities:n.不齐,不规则;谬误;不法行为And well end up after 13 billion years with somethinglooking rather like our own universe.于是在历经130亿年之后 大致有形似我们的宇宙般的结构显露出来。03:34And we compare simulated universes like that-Ill showyou a better simulation at t

20、he end of my talk-with what weactually see in the sky.这样可以供我们对两者进行比较-在我的发言结束时我会向大家展示一个更好的模拟-用我们实际从天空看到的样子。03:43Well,we can trace things back to the earlier stages of the BigBang,but we still dont know what banged and why itbanged.好吧，我们可以追溯到大爆炸后的早期场景，但我们仍然不知道到底是什么爆炸了以及为什么会爆炸。03:52Thats a challenge fo

21、r 21st-century science.那将是21世纪科学面临的挑战。04:02If my research group had a logo,it would be this picturehere:an ouroboros,where you see the micro-world on theleft-the world of the quantum-and on the right thelarge-scale universe of planets,stars and galaxies.如果我的研究小组要选择个徽标的话，将会是这张图片：一条首尾相连的环形衔尾蛇，在左边是微观世界

22、-即量子世界-而在右边是 宏观的宇宙包括行星，恒星和星系。04:07We know our universes are united though-links betweenleft and right.我们知道宇宙万物是联系在一体的-这张图片的左边连结到右边04:23The everyday world is determined by atoms,how they sticktogether to make molecules.寻常世界决定于原子，即它们是如何结合在一起组成分子。04:27Stars are fueled by how the nuclei in those atoms r

23、eacttogether.恒星利用原子核的相互作用来提供燃料。04:31simulated:adj.模拟的;模仿的;仿造的/v.模仿(simulate的变形);假装 stages:n.计阶段(stage的复数);舞台;戏剧表演/v.计划;表演;分阶段进行(stage的三单形式)banged:n.刘海;重击;突然巨响/adv.直接地;砰然地;突然巨响地/vt.重击;发巨响 sticktogether:在一起;团结一致;互相支持 molecules:n.化学分子,微粒;化学摩尔(molecule的复数)fueled:v.加燃料(fuel的过去分词)nuclei:n.核心,核子;原子核(nucleu

24、s的复数形式)And as weve learned in the last few years,galaxies are heldtogether by the gravitational pull of so-called dark matter:particles in huge swarms,far smaller even than atomicnuclei.我们近年来已了解到星系也是由 所谓的暗物质的引力作用连系在一起。暗物质粒子比原子核要小很多，且大量密集。04:37But wed like to know the synthesis symbolized at the very

25、top.但是我们还需了解图上部的结合体（即蛇吞尾）的象征意义。04:49The micro-world of the quantum is understood.微观的量子世界已被了解。04:55On the right hand side,gravity holds sway.Einstein explainedthat.右边的宏观世界中引力支配一切，爱因斯坦也已给出了解答。04:58But the unfinished business for 21st-century science is to link而二十一世纪科学尚需完成的任务 是将宏观宇宙和微观量子世界用 一个统一理论联系起来-

26、正如But the unfinished business for 21st-century science is to linktogether cosmos and micro-world with a unified theory-symbolized,as it were,gastronomically at the top of thatpicture.(Laughter)和微观量子世界用 一个统一理论联系起来-正如在图的上部 以美食的角度所象征的那样。（笑声）05:03And until we have that synthesis,we wont be able tounders

27、tand the very beginning of our universe because whenour universe was itself the size of an atom,quantum effectscould shake everything.在我们找到那样的统一理论之前，我们无法理解宇宙最开端时的情况，因为当宇宙的尺度同一个原子大小相仿时，量子效应可以摧毁一切。05:14And so we need a theory that unifies the very large and thevery small,which we dont yet have.所以我们需要一

28、个将极大和极小统一起来的理论，目前我们还没能找到。05:25gravitational:adj.力重力的,力引力的 so-called:adj.所谓的；号称的 swarms:n.(昆虫等)群;蜂蜂群(swarm的复数)/v.蜂拥;云集(swarm的第三人称单数)synthesis:n.综合,化学合成;综合体 symbolized:象征,作为的象征(symbolize的过去式和过去分词)unified:adj.统一的;一致标准的/v.统一;使一致(unify的过去分词)gastronomically:adv.从美食法角度;从烹饪法角度 unifies:vt.统一;使相同,使一致One idea,

29、incidentally-and I had this hazard sign to say Imgoing to speculate from now on-顺便提一句，有一个想法是-我用这个警示标识表明我在此开始进行的是推测-05:32-is that our Big Bang was not the only one.即我们最初的大爆炸并非唯一的一个。05:39One idea is that our three-dimensional universe may beembedded in a high-dimensional space,just as you canimagine o

30、n these sheets of paper.我们的三维宇宙，可能是 嵌入在一个更高维度的空间里，就像你可以想象一下这几张纸。05:41You can imagine ants on one of them thinking its a two-dimensional universe,not being aware of anotherpopulation of ants on the other.其中一张纸上的蚂蚁 认为纸就是它们的二维宇宙，而它无从知晓其它纸张（二维宇宙）上的别的蚂蚁。05:50So there could be another universe just a mill

31、imeter awayfrom ours,but were not aware of it because that millimeteris measured in some fourth spatial dimension,and wereimprisoned in our three.所以可能存在另一个宇宙，距离我们的只有一毫米远，但我们却不能感知它，因为那一毫米距离 是某个四维空间维度的尺寸，而我们被禁锢在我们的三维空间里。05:56www.XiYuS锡育软件And so we believe that there may be a lot more to physicalrealit

32、y than what weve normally called our universe-theaftermath of our Big Bang.And heres another picture.所以我们相信应该有更多的物理事实 存在于我们通常称为宇宙的地方之外。而宇宙是大爆炸的产物。这里有另一张图片。06:07incidentally:adv.顺便；偶然地；附带地 speculate:vi.推测;投机;思索/vt.推断 three-dimensional:adj.三维的;立体的;真实的 embedded:adj.嵌入式的;植入的;内含的/v.嵌入(embed的过去式和过去分词形式)tw

33、o-dimensional:adj.二维的;缺乏深度的 millimeter:n.计量毫米 spatial:adj.空间的;存在于空间的;受空间条件限制的 dimension:n.方面;数维;尺寸;次元;容积vt.标出尺寸/adj.规格的 imprisoned:adj.被封印,被囚禁的 aftermath:n.后果;余波Bottom right depicts our universe,which on the horizon isnot beyond that,but even that is just one bubble,as it were,in some vaster reality

34、.在其右下角描述的是我们的宇宙，也就是远端众多泡沫中的一个，但那也不过是更广阔现实中的一个泡沫。06:17Many people suspect that just as weve gone from believingin one solar system to zillions of solar systems,one galaxy tomany galaxies,we have to go to many Big Bangs from oneBig Bang.很多人猜想随着我们开始相信 不止有一个太阳系而是有无数的其他类太阳系，不止有一个银河系而是有很多其他星系，我们甚至应该考虑不止有一

35、个大爆炸而是许多大爆炸。06:26Perhaps these many Big Bangs displaying an immensevariety of properties.或许这许多大爆炸展示出 极其多样的物理特性。06:39Well,lets go back to this picture.好吧，让我们回到这张图片。06:43Theres one challenge symbolized at the top,but theresanother challenge to science symbolized at the bottom.在其上部有一个符号化了的科学挑战。而在其下部同样有

36、一个符号化了的科学挑战。06:45You want to not only synthesize the very large and the verysmall,but we want to understand the very complex.除了用理论来一统极大和极小两个世界，我们还要理解其中的复杂性。06:52And the most complex things are ourselves,midway betweenatoms and stars.而宇宙中最复杂的东西就是我们自己，我们处于原子和恒星之间。06:58We depend on stars to make the at

37、oms were made of.我们依赖恒星制造组成我们身体的各类原子。07:02depicts:vt.描述;描画 bubble:n.气泡,泡沫,泡状物;透明圆形罩,圆形顶/vi.沸腾,冒泡;发出气泡声/vt.使冒泡;滔滔不绝地说zillions:n.庞大的数字;无法计算的大数字/adj.无限数的 Bangs:n.刘海;重击;巨响(bang的复数形式)/v.猛撞;发出砰的一声;粗手粗脚地对待(bang的第三人称单数形式)immense:adj.巨大的，广大的；无边无际的；非常好的 synthesize:vt.合成;综合/vi.合成;综合We depend on chemistry to de

38、termine our complexstructure.我们依赖化学反应来决定我们的复杂结构。07:04We clearly have to be large,compared to atoms,to havelayer upon layer of complex structure.相对于原子来说，我们是庞大的，具有多层的复杂结构；07:10We clearly have to be small,compared to stars and planets-otherwise wed be crushed by gravity.And in fact,we aremidway.相对于恒星和行

39、星来说，我们又是微小的，否则会被引力压垮。事实上，我们处于中间。07:15It would take as many human bodies to make up the sun asthere are atoms in each of us.要用每个人体内的原子数目那么多的人数 加在一起才能达到太阳的质量级。07:22The geometric mean of the mass of a proton and the massof the sun is 50 kilograms,within a factor of two of the massof each person here.太阳

40、质量和质子质量的几何平均数 是50千克，和在座的每个人的体重是一个数量级。07:26Well,most of you anyway.当然，至少是大多数人07:34The science of complexity is probably the greatest challengeof all,greater than that of the very small on the left and thevery large on the right.对人的复杂性的科学研究可能是最具挑战的，比图左边的微观世界 和图右边的宏观世界都更具挑战性。07:35And its this science,w

41、hich is not only enlightening ourunderstanding of the biological world,but alsotransforming our world faster than ever.正是这样的科学研究，不仅在启迪我们对生物世界不断加深了解，而且也在更加快速地转变着我们的世界。07:45geometric:adj.几何学的;数几何学图形的 proton:n.物质子 kilograms:n.计量公斤,千克 enlightening:adj.使人领悟的;有启发作用的/v.启蒙;通知(enlighten的ing形式)transforming:v.

42、转化,转变(transform的ing形式)And more than that,its engendering new kinds of change.以至于还产生了全新的改变。07:55And I now move on to the second part of my talk,and thebook Our Final Century was mentioned.现在我将进入我演讲的第二部分，前面有人已提到了“我们最后的世纪”这本拙作。07:59If I was not a self-effacing Brit.I would mention the bookmyself,and I

43、would add that its available in paperback.如果我不是一个谦逊的英国人的话，我会自己提到这本书，而且还会告诉大家它有平装版。08:08(Laughter)And in America it was called Our Final Hour（笑声）在美国这本书被称作“我们最后的一小时”08:15because Americans like instant gratification.因为美国人更注重及时行乐。08:21(Laughter)But my theme is that in this century,not only hasscience ch

44、anged the world faster than ever,but in new anddifferent ways.（笑声）我的主旨是在最近这个世纪里，科学不仅比以往更快地改变着世界，而且以新的与以往不同的方式。08:23Targeted drugs,genetic modification,artificial intelligence,perhaps even implants into our brains,may change humanbeings themselves.And human beings,their physique andcharacter,has not

45、changed for thousands of years.定向药物，基因改良，人工智能，甚至大脑植入等等新科技 将改变人类自身的样子。而人类的 体型和性格等物理特质近千年来都保持着不变。08:34It may change this century.在本世纪中改变即将来临。08:47self-effacing:adj.谦让的;谦逊的;不出风头的 Brit:n.小鲱鱼;海中微生物 gratification:n.满意;喜悦;使人满意之事modification:n.修改,修正;改变 implants:移植物;埋植剂(implant的复数)/v.灌输(implant的第三人称单数)physiq

46、ue:n.体格,体形Its new in our history.这将是历史的新的一页。08:49And the human impact on the global environment-greenhouse warming,mass extinctions and so forth-isunprecedented,too.同时人类给全球环境带来的冲击-温室效应，大规模杀伤武器等等-也是史无前例的。08:51And so,this makes this coming century a challenge.因此，新世纪将是人类面临的挑战。08:58Bio-and cybertechnolo

47、gies are environmentally-benign inthat they offer marvelous prospects,while,nonetheless,reducing pressure on energy and resources.生物和网络技术为更好的改变环境 提供了美妙的前景，得以减轻我们在能源方面的压力。09:03But they will have a dark side.但是它们也有其负面性。09:12In our interconnected world,novel technology couldempower just one fanatic,or

48、some weirdo with a mindset ofthose who now design computer viruses,to trigger somekind on disaster.在如今相互连通的世界里，新奇的科技将使得 一个狂热分子，或者若干个精神状态古怪的人能编制计算机病毒，造成某种程度上的灾难。09:15Indeed,catastrophe could arise simply from technicalmisadventure-error rather than terror.确实的是，仅仅是技术事故都将导致严重的灾难-灾难往往是无心而为的结果。09:27extin

49、ctions:n.生物灭绝(extinction的复数);消失;废除 unprecedented:adj.空前的;无前例的 prospects:n.前景;预期;潜在顾客;远景展望 interconnected:adj.连通的;有联系的/v.互相连接(interconnect的过去式)empower:vt.授权,允许;使能够fanatic:n.狂热入迷者;盲信者;盲信/adj.狂热的;盲信的 weirdo:n.古怪的人,奇怪的人 mindset:n.心态;倾向;习惯;精神状态viruses:n.病毒病毒;病霉(virus的复数)catastrophe:n.大灾难;大祸;惨败 misadventu

50、re:n.灾难;不幸遭遇And even a tiny probability of catastrophe is unacceptablewhen the downside could be of global consequence.而当后果可能是全球性的灾难时，哪怕是非常小的概率也是无法被接受的。09:33In fact,some years ago,Bill Joy wrote an article expressingtremendous concern about robots taking us over,et cetera.事实上在几年前，比尔乔伊在一篇文章中 表达了对机器人将