AmoryLovins_2012S[艾默里.罗文斯][一个40年的能源计划].pdf

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1、www.XiYuS锡育软件Americas public energy conversation boils down to thisquestion:Would you rather die of A)oil wars,or B)climatechange,or C)nuclear holocaust,or D)all of the above?美国的公众能源的讨论 可以归结为这个问题 你比较倾向于哪种死法:A)石油战争 B)气候变化 C)核战浩劫 D)以上所有00:12Oh,I missed one:or E)none of the above?哦,我还忘了一个 E)以上都不要?00:27

2、Thats the one were not normally offered.正常情况下没有这个选项00:30What if we could make energy do our work without workingour undoing?如果我们可以利用能源,帮助我们工作 而又不会招致灭亡,将有多好?00:32Could we have fuel without fear?我们能不能安心地使用燃料?00:37Could we reinvent fire?我们能不能重燃火源(Reinvent fire是艾默里罗文斯的关于能源运用方式改造的新书)?00:39You see,fire ma

3、de us human;fossil fuels made us modern.大家知道,用火造就了人类 化石燃料引领我们变得现代化00:41But now we need a new fire that makes us safe,secure,healthy and durable.但现在我们需要一种新的火 一种能让我们安全,有保障,健康而且可持续的火00:45Lets see how.让我们来看看要怎么做00:50Four-fifths of the worlds energy still comes from burningeach year four cubic miles of t

4、he rotted remains of primevalswamp goo.世界能源的五分之四 仍然来自于每年燃烧 四平方英里原始沼泽 遗留的腐化物质00:52boils:n.生疖,疮(boil复数)holocaust:n.大屠杀;毁灭 undoing:n.毁灭;取消;毁灭的原因/vt.解开;取消(undo的ing形式)reinvent:vt.重新使用;彻底改造;重复发明(在不知他人已发明的情况下)cubic:adj.立方体的,立方的 rotted:腐烂的primeval:adj.原始的;初期的(等于primaeval)goo:n.感伤;粘性物Those fossil fuels have

5、built our civilization.化石燃料 造就了我们的文明01:03Theyve created our wealth.创造了我们的财富01:08Theyve enriched the lives of billions.丰富了数十亿人的生活01:10But they also have rising costs to our security,economy,health and environment that are starting to erode,if notoutweigh their benefits.但它们也在导致 我们安全、经济、健康和环境的成本上升 这些成本

6、正逐渐侵蚀效益,虽然现在仍可能是利大于弊01:11So we need a new fire.所以我们需要一种新的火01:22And switching from the old fire to the new fire meanschanging two big stories about oil and electricity,each ofwhich puts two-fifths of the fossil carbon in the air.从旧的火转换为新的火 意味着两大改变:石油与电力 它们都会向空气排放五分之二的化石碳01:24But theyre really quite d

7、istinct.但两者间显著差别01:36Less than one percent of our electricity is made from oil-although almost half is made from coal.只有不到1%的电力来自于石油能源 而将近一半的电力来自于燃煤01:38Their uses are quite concentrated.两者用途又都非常集中01:45Three-fourths of our oil fuel is transportation.四分之三的石油被用于交通运输01:47Three-fourths of our electricit

8、y powers buildings.四分之三的电力被用于建筑物供电01:50enriched:adj.浓缩的;强化的/v.使丰富;充实;浓缩(enrich的过去分词)erode:vt.腐蚀,侵蚀/vi.侵蚀;受腐蚀 outweigh:vt.比重(在重量上);比重要;比有价值 switching:n.电开关;转换;整流;配电/v.转换(switch的ing形式)concentrated:adj.集中的;浓缩的;全神贯注的/v.集中(concentrate的过去分词)Three-fourths:四分之三And the rest of both runs factories.两者的剩下部分被用于工

9、厂运作01:52So very efficient vehicles,buildings and factories save oil andcoal,and also natural gas that can displace both of them.因此高效的车辆,建筑物与工厂 可以节省石油和煤也能省下可以替代石油和煤的天然气01:54But todays energy system is not just inefficient,it is alsodisconnected,aging,dirty and insecure.但是当今的能源系统不仅效率低下 而且零散 老旧,肮脏,还不安全

10、02:04So it needs refurbishment.因此能源系统需要改头换面02:12By 2050 though,it could become efficient,connected anddistributed with elegantly frugal autos,factories andbuildings all relying on a modern,secure and resilientelectricity system.到2050年,它会变得更有效率 更具系统,被妥善运用 因为简约节能的 汽车、工厂以及建筑物 都依赖于现代、安全 并且灵活的电力系统02:14We

11、 can eliminate our addiction to oil and coal by 2050 anduse one-third less natural gas while switching to efficient useand renewable supply.到2050年,我们将不再依赖石油和煤 并减少三分之一的天然气使用量 与此同时我们将有效地使用能源 与可再生资源02:30TED演讲者：Amory Lovins|艾默里.罗文斯演讲标题：Amory Lovins:A 40-year plan for energy|一个40年的能源计划内容概要：In his new boo

12、k,Reinventing Fire,Amory Lovins shares ingenious ideas for thenext era of energy.在这场在TED办公室录制的演讲中，能源理论学家艾默里.罗文斯列出了我们必须采取哪些手段，才能在石油被耗尽之前，摆脱世界范围内对石油的依赖。一些变化正在发生，比如轻型汽车和智慧型卡车。但这些改变，需要我们有更宽广的视角，才能达成。And the rest:其他的;等等 factories:n.工厂,车厂(factory复数形式)displace:vt.取代;置换;转移;把免职;排水inefficient:adj.无效率的,效率低的;无能

13、的 disconnected:adj.分离的;不连贯的;无系统的/v.分离(disconnect的过去分词)insecure:adj.不安全的;不稳定的;不牢靠的 refurbishment:n.整修;翻新;重新磨亮 elegantly:adv.优美地 frugal:adj.节俭的;朴素的;花钱少的 autos:n.汽车(auto的复数形式);汽车股票 relying:v.依赖;信任;指望(rely的ing形式)resilient:adj.弹回的,有弹力的 renewable:adj.可再生的;可更新的;可继续的/n.再生性能源This could cost,by 2050,five tril

14、lion dollars less in netpresent value,that is expressed as a lump sum today,thanbusiness as usual-assuming that carbon emissions到2050年,这一切开销 将比现在净价值少5万亿美元 这里是指总价 是与照常营运相比 假设碳排放02:44and all other hidden or external costs are worth zero-aconservatively low estimate.以及所有其他隐性或外部成本为零 这只是保守的估计02:57Yet thi

15、s cheaper energy system could support 158 percentbigger U.S.economy all without needing oil or coal,or forthat matter nuclear energy.但是这个更低耗的能源系统 能够支持相当于现量158%的美国经济 完全不需要石油或煤 或是核能03:04Moreover,this transition needs no new inventions and noacts of Congress and no new federal taxes,mandatesubsidies or

16、 laws and running Washington gridlock.此外,这个转变不需要新发明 也不需要国会的法令不需要新的联邦税种,强制补助或立法 或是使美国政府陷入困境03:14Let me say that again.让我重申一次03:28Im going to tell you how to get the United States completelyoff oil and coal,five trillion dollars cheaper with no act ofCongress led by business for profit.我将告诉你怎样让美国 完全摆脱

17、石油或煤,减少5万亿美元的开销 而且不需要 以盈利组织为主导的国会制订新法03:29In other words,were going to use our most effectiveinstitutions-private enterprise co-evolving with civil societyand sped by military innovation to go around our leasteffective institutions.换句话说,我们将利用我们最有效的组织 民营企业与公民社会共同进步 并通过军队改革,来加速这一进程 这样才能绕过最低效的机构03:39tr

18、illion:n.数万亿/adj.万亿的/num.数万亿 expressed:v.表达(express的过去式和过去分词);(用符号等)表示;榨;(如在说话,写作或绘画中)表达(自己)的意见 as usual:像往常一样;照例 conservatively:adv.谨慎地;保存地;适当地 inventions:n.专利发明(invention的复数);创意曲 mandate:n.授权;命令,指令;委托管理;受命进行的工作/vt.授权;托管 subsidies:补助金,补贴,津贴(subsidy的名词复数)gridlock:vi.交通阻塞/n.僵局;极端严重的全面交通壅塞 sped:v.加速;飞

19、驰(speed的过去分词)innovation:n.创新,革新;新方法And whether you care most about profits and jobs andcompetitive advantage or national security,or environmentalstewardship and climate protection and public health,reinventing fire makes sense and makes money.不论你最关心的是 利润、工作和竞争优势 还是国家安全、环境管理 还是气候保护和公众健康 重新发明能源使用方式,合

20、理也有赚头03:52General Eisenhower reputedly said that enlarging theboundaries of a tough problem makes it soluble byencompassing more options and more synergies.据说艾森豪威尔将军曾说过 扩大一个难题的范围就能涵盖更多的选择和协同作用,从而解决问题04:06So in reinventing fire,we integrated all four sectors that useenergy-transportation,buildings,in

21、dustry and electricity-and we integrated four kinds of innovation,not justtechnology and policy,but also design and businessstrategy.因此在重新发明能源使用方式时 我们整合耗能的全部四个领域 交通,建筑,工业与电力 也整合了四种创新 不只是科技与政策 也包括设计和商业策略04:17Those combinations yield very much more than the sum ofthe parts,especially in creating deepl

22、y disruptive businessopportunities.这些组合产生的效益 远高于各项的总和 特别是合并后,将创造颠覆性的商业机遇04:34stewardship:n.管理工作;管事人的职位及职责 reinventing:重新使用;改造 reputedly:adv.据说,一般认为;根据风评enlarging:n.扩大,摄放大/v.扩大,摄放大(enlarge的现在分词)soluble:adj.化学可溶的，可溶解的；可解决的encompassing:adj.包含的;包容的,环绕/v.围绕,包围(encompass的ing形式)synergies:n.协同增效效应;合并效果(syne

23、rgy的复数)integrated:adj.综合的;完整的;互相协调的/v.整合;使成整体(integrate的过去分词)sectors:n.部门;分区;扇区数(sector的复数)/v.把划成扇形;把分成部分(sector的三单形式)disruptive:adj.破坏的;分裂性的;制造混乱的Oil costs our economy two billion dollars a day,plus anotherfour billion dollars a day in hidden economic and militarycosts,raising its total cost to ove

24、r a sixth of GDP.石油每天花去我们20亿美元 再加上另外的 隐性经济与军费开支花去的40亿美元 石油总消费超过GDP(国内生产总值)的六分之一04:43Our mobility fuel goes three-fifths to automobiles.既然用于交通工具的燃料的五分之三都花在汽车上04:56So lets start by making autos oil free.让我们从汽车免费用油开始着手04:59Two-thirds of the energy it takes to move a typical car iscaused by its weight.驱

25、动一辆普通汽车所需能源的三分之二 是由车子的重量贡献的05:01And every unit of energy you save at the wheels,by takingout weight or drag,saves seven units in the tank,becauseyou dont have to waste six units getting the energy to thewheels.通过减轻车子重量或减少制动阻力 在这上面每节约的一单位能量 就能节约油箱中七单位的能量 因为你已不需要多浪费六单位能源 将能量传输到车轮上05:07Unfortunately,ov

26、er the past quarter century,epidemicobesity has made our two-ton steel cars gain weight twice as但不幸的是,在过去的25年中 肥胖问题的流行,让我们2吨的钢制车变得更重 而且增加的速度是以前的两倍05:17obesity has made our two-ton steel cars gain weight twice asfast as we have.两倍05:17But today,ultralight,ultrastrong materials,like carbon fibercompos

27、ites,can make dramatic weight savings snowballand can make cars simpler and cheaper to build.但在当今,超轻、超强度的材料 比如碳纤维复合材料 能让显著减轻车子重量 并使汽车的制造变得更简单,价格更便宜05:27mobility:n.移动性;机动性;电子迁移率 automobiles:n.车辆汽车,发动器(automobile复数);关于汽车 Two-thirds:n.三分之二/三分之二的/三分之二地 obesity:n.肥大,肥胖 ultralight:adj.超轻型的/n.超轻型飞机 fiber:n

28、.纤维;光纤(等于fibre)composites:n.复合材料(composite的复数);复合体;菊科植物/v.使合成;使混合(composite的三单形式)snowball:n.雪球/vi.掷雪球;滚雪球般增大/vt.向掷雪球;使滚雪球般增大Lighter and more slippery autos need less force to movethem,so their engines get smaller.车子越轻,开动阻力越小 驱动所需的动力就越少 引擎就能越小05:40Indeed,that sort of vehicle fitness then makes electr

29、icpropulsion affordable because the batteries or fuel cells alsoget smaller and lighter and cheaper.实际上,车辆的这种轻便性 使得电力驱力变得实惠因为电力电池或燃料电池 也会变得更小、更轻、更便宜05:47So sticker prices will ultimately fall to about the same astoday,while the driving cost,even from the start,is verymuch lower.所以汽车的定价最终将回落到目前定价相近水平

30、而驾驶成本,甚至是从一开始开始算起 也低了很多06:00So these innovations together can transform automakersfrom wringing tiny savings out of Victorian engine and seal-stamping technologies to the steeply falling costs所以说这些创新组合在一起,就能让汽车制造商 使他们从在维多利亚时代的引擎与邮票印章技术上钻营微小的节约 转到由三项紧密联系相互强化的创新06:09www.XiYuS锡育软件of three linked innova

31、tions that strongly reenforce each other-namely ultralight materials,making them into structuresand electric propulsion.带来的成本的巨幅下降 也就是说运用超轻的材料,将它们用于建设 与电力驱动系统06:21The sales can grow and the prices fall even faster withtemporary feebates,that is rebates for efficient new autospaid for by fees on inef

32、ficient ones.通过实行短期的退税方案 就能增加销量,更快地降低价格 这种退税方,是针对高效能的新型汽车的退款 并由低效汽车的生产商给付06:33fitness:n.健康;适当;适合性 propulsion:n.推进;推进力 affordable:adj.负担得起的 sticker:n.尖刀;难题;张贴物;坚持不懈的人/vt.给贴上标签价/adj.汽车价目标签的;汽车标签价的 innovations:n.创新(innovation的复数);改革 automakers:n.车辆汽车制造商(automaker的复数)wringing:adj.湿透的/v.绞,扭(wring的ing形式)s

33、teeply:adv.陡峭地;险峻地rebates:n.回扣;部分退款(rebate的复数)fees:n.会计费用(fee的复数);规费And just in the first two years the biggest of Europes fivefeebate programs has tripled the speed of improvingautomotive efficiency.而仅仅在最初的两年内 欧洲五个费用退还计划中最大的一个 就将汽车能源效率改进的速度提高了三倍06:44The resulting shift to electric autos is going to

34、 be as game-changing as shifting from typewriters to the gains incomputers.由此带来的向电动汽车的转变 将像由打字机向使用电脑的转变 一样改变游戏规则06:55Of course,computers and electronics are now Americasbiggest industry,while typewriter makers have vanished.不必多言,电脑与电子产品 是当今美国最大的产业打字机制造商却已消失得无影无踪07:04So vehicle fitness opens a new au

35、tomotive competitivestrategy that can double the oil savings over the next 40years,but then also make electrification affordable,and thatdisplaces the rest of the oil.因此交通工具的轻便性 启动了新型汽车业竞争战略 一种能够使未来40年内汽车省油率翻倍 同时让电动车变得平价 还能让电动车取代汽油车的战略07:10America could lead this next automotive revolution.美国能够引领下一轮

36、汽车业革命07:26Currently the leader is Germany.当前起主导作用的是德国07:30Last year,Volkswagen announced that by next year theyll beproducing this carbon fiber plugin hybrid getting 230 milesa gallon.去年,大众汽车宣布 今天他们将生产出 具备碳纤维插件的混合动力车 行驶230英里耗油1加仑(约合100公里/升)07:32tripled:adj.三倍的;三方的/n.三倍数;三个一组/vi.增至三倍/vt.使成三倍 automoti

37、ve:adj.汽车的;自动的 resulting:adj.作为结果的/v.致使(result的ing形式);产生 shifting:n.计移位；狡猾/v.改变(shift的ing形式)/adj.移动的；狡诈的typewriters:n.印刷打字机(typewriter的复数形式)electronics:n.电子学;电子工业 vanished:n.销声匿迹,无影无踪(美国电视连续剧剧名)electrification:n.电气化;带电;充电 displaces:vt.取代;置换;转移;把免职;排水 hybrid:n.杂种,混血儿;混合物/adj.混合的;杂种的Also last year,BMW

38、 announced this carbon fiber electric car,they said that its carbon fiber is paid for by needing fewerbatteries.同样在去年,宝马公司宣布生产 这种碳纤维电动车他们宣称使用碳纤维的成本 可以由相应减少的电池需求来平衡07:42And they said,We do not intend to be a typewriter maker.他们还说,“我们不想成为打字机制造商。”07:51Audi claimed its going to beat them both by a year.

39、奥迪公司宣称将用一年时间击败这两个对手07:53Seven years ago,an even faster and cheaper Americanmanufacturing technology was used to make this littlecarbon fiber test part,which doubles as a carbon cap.7年前,一种更快更低价的 美国式制造技术 被用于制造这个小小的碳纤维试用零件 使得碳排放上限翻了一番07:57(Laughter)In one minute-and you can tell from the soundhow immen

40、sely stiff and strong it is.(笑声)在一分钟之内你就能从听出 它有多么坚硬牢固08:12Dont worry about dropping it,its tougher than titanium.它掉到地上也没事,因为它比钛还要坚硬08:20Tom Friedman actually whacked it as hard as he could with asledgehammer without even scuffing it.汤姆弗里德曼曾拿大锤用尽全力敲它 它却毫发无损08:23But such manufacturing techniques can s

41、cale to automotivespeed and cost with aerospace performance.但这样的制造技术 如果能结合流体设计 就能影响汽车的速度和成本08:27manufacturing:adj.制造的;制造业的/n.制造业;工业/v.制造;生产(manufacture的ing形式)immensely:adv.极大地;无限地;广大地;庞大地 titanium:n.化学钛(金属元素)whacked:adj.疲惫不堪的,精疲力竭的/v.重击(whack的过去分词)sledgehammer:adj.手下不留情的;强力的/vt.用大锤打;猛力打/n.大锤;猛烈的打击 s

42、cuffing:n.变形;划痕;擦伤/v.使磨损(scuff的ing形式);拖着脚走路 aerospace:n.航空宇宙;航航空航天空间They can save four-fifths of the capital needed to make autos.它们能节省五分之四的汽车制造成本08:34They can save lives because this stuff can absorb up to 12times as much crash energy per pound as steel.它们能保障生命安全 因为它能吸收的撞击力 是每磅钢铁所能吸收的碰撞能(撞击产生的能量)的1

43、2倍08:38If we made all of our autos this way,it would save oilequivalent to finding one and a half Saudi Arabias,or half anOPEC,by drilling in the Detroit formation,a very prospectiveplay.如果我们用这种方法制造所有的汽车 省下的石油相当于 找到一个半的沙特阿拉伯,或者半个OPEC(石油输出国家组织)如果从底特律钻井开始着手,就很有可能成功08:43And all those mega-barrels under

44、 Detroit cost an average of18 bucks a barrel.而所有那些底特律地下的蕴含的巨大油桶 每桶都要18美元08:55They are all-American,carbon-free and inexhaustible.它们全为美国生产,属于无碳排放 取之不尽,用之不竭09:00The same physics and the same business logic also apply tobig vehicles.同样的道理,同样的商业逻辑 也适用于大型车辆09:05In the five years ending with 2010,Walmart

45、saved 60 percentof the fuel per ton-mile in its giant fleet of heavy trucksthrough better logistics and design.2005到2010年 沃尔玛的大批重型卡车队 减少了60%的每英里耗油量 这归功于它们较好的物流和规划09:09But just the technological savings in heavy trucks can get totwo-thirds.但仅在重型卡车技术上的节约 就占了三分之二09:19And combined with triple to quintup

46、le efficiency airplanes,now on the drawing board,can save close to a trillion dollars.如果我们结合三到五倍能源效率的飞机 正在被设计的飞机 就省下接近一万亿美元09:24equivalent:adj.等价的,相等的;同意义的/n.等价物,相等物 drilling:n.钻孔;训练,教练;演练/v.钻孔;训练(drill的ing形式)bucks:n.雄鹿队(篮球队名);巴克斯(英国伦敦附近的一个郡名)inexhaustible:adj.用不完的;不知疲倦的 logistics:n.军后勤;后勤学/物流 quint

47、uple:adj.五倍的;五部分组成的/n.五倍量;五个一组/vt.使成五倍/vi.成五倍 airplanes:n.(美)航飞机(airplane的复数)Also todays military revolution in energy efficiency is goingto speed up all of these civilian advances in much the sameway that military R&D has given us the Internet,the GlobalPositioning System and the jet engine and mic

48、rochipindustries.如今军队在能源效率上的改革 也将促进所有这些民用的技术的发展 就像是军方研发 给我们带来互联网、全球定位系统 喷气机引擎和微芯片产业09:31As we design and build vehicles better,we can also use themsmarter by harnessing four powerful techniques foreliminating needless driving.随着我们设计、制造更好的汽车 我们也能更聪明地使用它们 通过运用联合四种强力的技术 来减少驾驶时无谓的损耗09:47Instead of just

49、seeing the travel grow,we can use innovativepricing,charging for road infrastructure by the mile,not bythe gallon.与其只看到出游时里程的增长 我们还能用创新的定价方式 按英里数给道路基建收费,而不是耗油量09:57We can use some smart IT to enhance transit and enable carsharing and ride sharing.我们可以用一些巧妙的IT技术来优化这个过程 让拼车变得可行10:06We can allow smart

50、and lucrative growth models that helppeople already be near where they want to be,so they dontneed to go somewhere else.我们可以用聪明且有利可图的增长模型 来帮助已经接近目标的人们 这样他们就不会走上歧路10:13speed up:加速;使加速 Positioning:n.计定位;配置,布置/v.计定位(position的现在分词);放置 microchip:n.微型集成电路片,微芯片 harnessing:v.给(马等)装上挽具(harness的现在分词);治理,利用 el