GavinSchmidt_2014[加文.施密特][气候变迁的突现形态].pdf

《GavinSchmidt_2014[加文.施密特][气候变迁的突现形态].pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《GavinSchmidt_2014[加文.施密特][气候变迁的突现形态].pdf（5页珍藏版）》请在淘文阁 - 分享文档赚钱的网站上搜索。

1、www.XiYuS锡育软件Thank you.(Applause)We live in a very complexenvironment:complexity and dynamism and patterns ofevidence from satellite photographs,from videos.谢谢！（观众掌声）我們活在非常複雜的環境裡;複雜性及動力系統論 及各式氣候變化形態的證據從衛星照相、從影片得之722924You can even see it outside your window.你甚至能從你的窗戶外面看到00:22Its endlessly complex,bu

2、t somehow familiar,but thepatterns kind of repeat,but they never repeat exactly.無止盡的複雜又具某種程度的熟悉 但形態的確有一定程度的重複 但從來沒有一模一樣過00:25Its a huge challenge to understand.要了解它是很大的挑戰00:33The patterns that you see are there at all of the differentscales,but you cant chop it into one little bit and say,Oh,well le

3、t me just make a smaller climate.你所看到的形態 都以不同的尺度存在著 但你不能切下一小塊然後說 喔,那我做個小一點的氣候。00:37I cant use the normal products of reductionism to get asmaller and smaller thing that I can study in a laboratory andsay,Oh,now thats something I now understand.我不能以一般的化約論產品 得到愈來愈小的東西使我能在實驗室裡研究且說 喔,這是我能理解的了。00:48Its t

4、he whole or its nothing.這是全有或全無01:00這些氣候形態 以不同的尺度呈現 其範圍幅度非常大 大約是 14 數量級的差距 從最小的顯微粒子 以造雨 到這個星球本身的大小 從 10 的負六次方到10 的八次方 空間數量級的差距為 1401:03In time,from milliseconds to millennia,again around 14orders of magnitude.在時間上,從毫秒到千年 同樣也是 14 數量級01:26What does that mean?這意味著什麼？01:32dynamism:n.活力;动态;物力论;推动力;精神动力作用

5、 endlessly:adv.不断地;无穷尽地 scales:n.天平;磅秤;鳞屑;缩放reductionism:n.还原论;简化论 milliseconds:n.计量毫秒(millisecond的复数形式)Okay,well if you think about how you can calculate thesethings,you can take what you can see,okay,Im going tochop it up into lots of little boxes,and thats the result ofphysics,right?好,如果你想一想 你要如何

6、計算這些東西 你會把你見到的事物 好,我要把它切碎 成這些小方塊 這就是物理學的結果,對吧？01:34And if I think about a weather model,that spans about fiveorders of magnitude,from the planet to a few kilometers,and the time scale from a few minutes to 10 days,maybe amonth.如果我想到一個氣象模型 尺度橫跨五數量級 也就是從地球的大小到幾公里 時間尺度則是 從幾分鐘到十天或者一個月01:45Were intereste

7、d in more than that.我們感興趣的不只這些01:59Were interested in the climate.我們對氣候感興趣02:00Thats years,thats millennia,and we need to go to evensmaller scales.那是以年計的,是千年 我們還需要看更小尺度的02:01The stuff that we cant resolve,the sub-scale processes,weneed to approximate in some way.我們無法解決的東西 次網格尺度過程 我們必須想辦法得到近似值02:06Th

8、at is a huge challenge.那是很大的挑戰02:11Climate models in the 1990s took an even smaller chunk ofthat,only about three orders of magnitude.1990 年代的氣候模式 是拿更小塊的規模來看 大約只有三數量級02:13Climate models in the 2010s,kind of what were workingwith now,four orders of magnitude.2010 年代的氣候模式 就像我們現在正在使用的是四數量級02:19We have

9、14 to go,and were increasing our capability ofsimulating those at about one extra order of magnitudeevery decade.我們還要繼續擴展到 14 而我們的 模擬能力 每十年大約增加一數量級02:26spans:n.建跨度;一段时间(span的复数)/v.跨越;持续;贯穿(span的第三人称单数)approximate:vt.近似;使接近;粗略估计/vi.接近于;近似于/adj.数近似的;大概的 simulating:n.模拟/假装One extra order of magnitude i

10、n space is 10,000 times morecalculations.以空間而言每增加一數量級 就是增加一萬倍的計算02:36And we keep adding more things,more questions to thesedifferent models.而我們還繼續加東西上去 加更多問題到這些不同的模式上02:41So what does a climate model look like?所以氣候模式是甚麼樣子？02:46TED演讲者：Gavin Schmidt|加文.施密特演讲标题：The emergent patterns of climate change|气

11、候变迁的突现形态内容概要：You can.t understand climate change in pieces,says climate scientist Gavin Schmidt.It.s the whole,or it.s nothing.In this illuminating talk,he explains how he studies the bigpicture of climate change with mesmerizing models that illustrate the endlessly complexinteractions of small-scal

12、e environmental events.你不能把气候变迁拆开来理解，气候科学家加文.施密特如是说。这是全有或全无。他在此富有启发性的演说中，解释如何以奇幻的模式，描绘出小规模环境事件无止尽的复杂交互作用，来研究气候变迁的大图像。This is an old climate model,admittedly,a punch card,asingle line of Fortran code.這是老式的氣候模式,無可否認 打孔卡,單行福傳語言02:49We no longer use punch cards.我們不再使用打孔卡了02:55We do still use Fortran.我們還

13、是用福傳語言02:57New-fangled ideas like C really havent had a big impact onthe climate modeling community.新的想法像使用 C 語言 還沒有什麼大的影響力 在氣候模式族群裡02:59But how do we go about doing it?但這是怎麼做出來的？03:07How do we go from that complexity that you saw to a line ofcode?我們如何把你所看到的複雜 變成一行的程式？03:08We do it one piece at a ti

14、me.我們一次做一件03:16This is a picture of sea ice taken flying over the Arctic.這是一張海冰圖 飛越北極上空時照的03:17We can look at all of the different equations that go intomaking the ice grow or melt or change shape.我們可以看所有不同的方程式 使結冰量增加 或融化或改變形狀03:21admittedly:adv.公认地;无可否认地;明白地 New-fangled:新奇怪异的 modeling:n.自建模,造型;立体感/

15、adj.制造模型的 go about:v.着手做;四处走动;传开;从事 at a time:一次;每次;在某时 equations:n.方程式;等式;均等;均势(equation的复数形式)We can look at the fluxes.我們可以看看各種通量03:28We can look at the rate at which snow turns to ice,and wecan code that.我們可以看雪變成冰的速率 我們可以為之編寫程式03:29We can encapsulate that in code.我們可以封裝在程式裡03:34These models are a

16、round a million lines of code at this point,and growing by tens of thousands of lines of code every year.這些模式目前大約要以 一百萬行程式才做的出來每年還要以上萬行的程式 成長03:37So you can look at that piece,but you can look at the otherpieces too.所以你看這件是這樣 別件也是如此03:45What happens when you have clouds?有雲的時候怎麼辦？03:48What happens wh

17、en clouds form,when they dissipate,whenthey rain out?雲形成的時候怎麼辦？雲散了呢？下雨了呢？03:50Thats another piece.這是一件03:54What happens when we have radiation coming from the sun,going through the atmosphere,being absorbed andreflected?有太陽輻射怎麼辦？輻射穿過大氣層 被吸收及反射又怎麼辦？03:56We can code each of those very small pieces as

18、well.我們也能為這些非常小的東西寫程式04:02There are other pieces:the winds changing the oceancurrents.還有其他的 風改變洋流04:06fluxes:n.流机流量(flux的复数);流动;涨潮;钎焊剂;助剂助熔剂/v.熔化(flux的三单形式);使成流体 encapsulate:vt.压缩;将装入胶囊;将封进内部;概述/vi.形成胶囊 dissipate:vt.浪费;使消散/vi.驱散;放荡 rain out:v.因下雨取消(或延期)absorbed:adj.被吸收的;一心一意的/v.吸收;使全神贯注(absorb的过去分词形

19、式)reflected:adj.反射的;得自他人的/v.反射;思考(reflect的过去式和过去分词)We can talk about the role of vegetation in transportingwater from the soils back into the atmosphere.我們也能談植被 從土壤中輸送水分 回到大氣層的角色04:11And each of these different elements we can encapsulate andput into a system.每一種不同的要素 我們都可以封裝寫進系統內04:19Each of those

20、pieces ends up adding to the whole.每一件最後都會加在整體上04:26And you get something like this.那你就得到一個像這樣的東西04:31You get a beautiful representation of whats going on in theclimate system,where each and every one of those emergentpatterns that you can see,the swirls in the Southern Ocean,the tropical cyclone in

21、 the Gulf of Mexico,and theres twomore that are going to pop up in the Pacific at any pointnow,those rivers of atmospheric water,all of those areemergent properties that come from the interactions of allof those small-scale processes I mentioned.你會得到漂亮的圖表 告訴你氣候系統發生什麼事每一個像這樣 你看到的突現形態 南冰洋的旋渦 墨西哥灣的熱帶颶風

22、 還有兩個隨時都要跑出來 在太平洋形成 那些大氣水氣形成的河流 這些都是突現性質 從我剛剛談到的次網格尺度過程 交互作用而來04:33vegetation:n.植被;植物,草木;呆板单调的生活 transporting:运输;猜火车(电影名)/v.运输(transport的ing形式)emergent:adj.紧急的;浮现的;意外的;自然发生的 swirls:n.旋涡;流涡流(swirl的复数形式)/v.使旋转(swirl的第三人称单数形式);搅;环绕 cyclone:n.旋风;气象气旋;飓风 Gulf:n.海湾；深渊；分歧；漩涡/vt.吞没 pop up:v.突然出现 atmospheric

23、:adj.大气的,大气层的 interactions:n.计交互,相互作用;相互交流(interaction复数)small-scale:adj.小规模的Theres no code that says,Do a wiggle in the SouthernOcean.沒有什麼程式會說 在南冰洋擺動一下。05:05Theres no code that says,Have two tropical cyclones thatspin around each other.也沒有程式會說;讓兩個 熱帶颶風互相繞著旋轉。05:08www.XiYuS锡育软件All of those things ar

24、e emergent properties.這些都是突現性質05:14This is all very good.This is all great.這很好,這很棒05:18But what we really want to know is what happens to theseemergent properties when we kick the system?但我們真的想知道的 是這些突現性質會怎麼辦 在我們系統改變的時候05:20When something changes,what happens to thoseproperties?當情況改變了那些性質會怎麼辦？05:25A

25、nd theres lots of different ways to kick the system.有很多方法會讓系統改變05:28There are wobbles in the Earths orbit over hundreds ofthousands of years that change the climate.地球的軌道 在過去數萬年的擺動 會改變氣候05:31There are changes in the solar cycles,every 11 years andlonger,that change the climate.太陽週期的改變 每 11 年或更長的時間也會

26、改變氣候05:37Big volcanoes go off and change the climate.大的火山爆發會改變氣候05:43Changes in biomass burning,in smoke,in aerosol particles,all of those things change the climate.生質燃燒的改變,煙霧 氣膠粒子,這些東西 都會改變氣候05:46wiggle:vi.使摆动,使扭动/vt.摆动/n.扭动 cyclones:n.气象旋风;化工旋风分离器(cyclone的复数)wobbles:vi.摇晃;摇摆;游移不定/n.摆动;摇晃;不稳定/vt.使摇

27、摆;使颤动;摇动 orbit:n.轨道;眼眶;势力范围;生活常规/vi.盘旋;绕轨道运行/vt.绕轨道而行 cycles:n.周期(cycle的复数);循环动作;圈数/v.循环;骑自行车(cycle的三单形式)volcanoes:n.火山爆发,火山;火山群(volcano复数)biomass:n.(单位面积或体积内的)生态生物量 aerosol:n.物化气溶胶;气雾剂;喷雾器;浮质/adj.喷雾的;喷雾器的The ozone hole changed the climate.臭氧洞會改變氣候05:53Deforestation changes the climate by changing t

28、he surfaceproperties and how water is evaporated and moved aroundin the system.森林除伐會改變氣候 因為這改變了地表性質 也改變水分如何蒸發 並在系統內移動05:57Contrails change the climate by creating clouds where therewere none before,and of course greenhouse gases changethe system.凝結尾會改變氣候 因為會在以前無雲的地方產生雲 當然溫室氣體也會改變系統06:06Each of these

29、 different kicks provides us with a target toevaluate whether we understand something about thissystem.這些不同的改變因素 提供我們一個目標 以評估我們是否瞭解 這個系統06:15So we can go to look at what model skill is.所以我們可以去看 模式預測技巧是什麼06:26Now I use the word skill advisedly:Models are not right orwrong;theyre always wrong.那我非常審慎的用

30、技巧這個字 模式沒有對錯;它們永遠是錯的06:31Theyre always approximations.它們永遠是近似值06:35The question you have to ask is whether a model tells youmore information than you would have had otherwise.你該問的問題是 模式能否告訴你更多的資訊 比你沒用模式時所得的還多06:37If it does,its skillful.如果是,那它就是技巧很好06:44This is the impact of the ozone hole on sea le

31、vel pressure,solow pressure,high pressures,around the southern oceans,around Antarctica.這是臭氧洞 對海平面氣壓的影響所以低氣壓高氣壓 在南冰洋四周,在南極洲四周06:47ozone:n.化学臭氧；新鲜的空气/Deforestation:n.采伐森林;森林开伐 evaporated:adj.浓缩的;脱水的;蒸发干燥的/v.蒸发;消失(evaporate的过去式);失去水分 Contrails:n.凝结尾;航迹云;凝迹(飞机飞过留下的尾迹)advisedly:adv.经过考虑地;故意地 approximati

32、ons:数近似值This is observed data.這是觀測數據06:55This is modeled data.這是模式推測出的數據06:57Theres a good match because we understand the physicsthat controls the temperatures in the stratosphere and whatthat does to the winds around the southern oceans.這兩者匹配度很高 因為我們瞭解 控制平流層溫度的物理 及其對 南冰洋四周的風的作用06:59We can look at

33、other examples.我們還可以看看其他例子07:10The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 put an enormousamount of aerosols,small particles,into the stratosphere.1991 年皮納土波火山爆發 將大量的氣膠,微粒 噴入平流層中07:11That changed the radiation balance of the whole planet.那件事改變了整個地球的輻射平衡07:18There was less energy coming in than there was

34、before,sothat cooled the planet,and those red lines and those greenlines,those are the differences between what we expectedand what actually happened.與之前相比,較少的能量進入地球 導致地球變冷 而那些紅線及那些綠線 那些是我們所預期 及實際狀況的差別07:22The models are skillful,not just in the global mean,but alsoin the regional patterns.這些模式很有技巧

35、不僅在全球平均上很準確 在區域形態上也如此07:32I could go through a dozen more examples:the skillassociated with solar cycles,changing the ozone in thestratosphere;the skill associated with orbital changes over6,000 years.我還可以講上打的例子;與太陽週期 平流層臭氧變化相關的預測技巧 與六千年來地球軌道變化 相關的預測技巧07:39observed:adj.观察的;观测的/v.观察;遵守;注意到(observe的过去

36、分词形式)modeled:v.模仿(model的过去分词形式);模式化;被效仿 stratosphere:n.同温层;最上层;最高阶段 eruption:n.爆发,喷发;火山灰;出疹 aerosols:n.物化气溶胶,喷雾器(aerosol的复数形式)regional:adj.地区的;局部的;整个地区的 orbital:adj.轨道的;眼窝的(aerosol的复数形式)regional:adj.地区的;局部的;整个地区的 orbital:adj.轨道的;眼窝的We can look at that too,and the models are skillful.我們也可以看那個而模式的技巧也很

37、好07:51The models are skillful in response to the ice sheets Themodels are skillful when it comes to the 20th-century trendsover the decades.對二萬年前的冰層 這些模式在過去幾十年 談到二十世紀的趨勢時 其技巧很好07:53Models are successful at modeling lake outbursts into theNorth Atlantic And we can get a good match to the data.模式很成功地

38、將八千年前北極冰湖潰決 我們在數據上的匹配度很高08:04Each of these different targets,each of these differentevaluations,leads us to add more scope to these models,and leads us to more and more complex situations that wecan ask more and more interesting questions,like,how doesdust from the Sahara,that you can see in the ora

39、nge,interactwith tropical cyclones in the Atlantic?每一個不同的目標 每一個不同的評估 都導致我們加大範圍 到這些模式中 導致日益加增的 複雜情況,使我們不禁要問 更多有意思的問題 像是撒哈拉塵 也就是這些橘色的東西 與大西洋的熱帶颶風如何交互作用？08:15How do organic aerosols from biomass burning,which youcan see in the red dots,intersect with clouds and rainfallpatterns?生質燃燒所產生的有機氣膠 也就是這些紅點 與雲及

40、雨型如何交互作用？08:40How does pollution,which you can see in the white wisps ofsulfate pollution in Europe,how does that affect thetemperatures at the surface and the sunlight that you get atthe surface?這些如何影響地面溫度 以及你在地表上得到的太陽光量？08:49in response to:响应;回答;对有反应 trends:n.动态,统计趋势 outbursts:爆发/突发(outburst的复数)ev

41、aluations:n.审计评估(evaluation的复数)intersect:vi.相交,交叉/vt.横断,横切;贯穿 rainfall:n.降雨;降雨量 wisps:n.小捆;一缕;云雪瑕疵;微细的东西(wisp的复数形式)/v.捆成小束(wisp的三单形式)sulfate:n.无化硫酸盐/vt.使成硫酸盐;用硫酸处理;使在上形成硫酸铅沉淀/vi.硫酸盐化We can look at this across the world.我們可以看看世界各地的狀況09:02We can look at the pollution from China.我們可以看從中國來的汙染09:05We can

42、 look at the impacts of storms on sea salt particles inthe atmosphere.我們可以看暴風 對大氣層內海鹽粒子的影響09:09We can see the combination of all of these different thingshappening all at once,and we can ask much moreinteresting questions.我們可以看 這些同時發生的 不同東西的組合 我們可以問更有意思的問題09:16How do air pollution and climate coexis

43、t?空氣汙染與氣候如何共存？09:25Can we change things that affect air pollution and climate atthe same time?我們是否能改變 對空氣汙染及氣候同時產生影響的事物？09:29The answer is yes.答案是肯定的09:33So this is a history of the 20th century.這是二十世紀的歷史09:36The first one is the model.第一個是模式09:39The weather is a little bit different to what actuall

44、yhappened.天氣與實際狀況 有一點不同09:41The second one are the observations.第二個是觀察09:44And were going through the 1930s.我們來看 1930 年代的情況09:46Theres variability,there are things going on,but its all kindof in the noise.總是有變數,總是有狀況發生 但是都有點像是雜音09:48impacts:n.影响(impact的复数);力冲击/v.压紧;冲撞;对产生不良影响(impact的三单形式)all at once

45、:突然 coexist:vi.共存;和平共处 observations:n.观察,观察值;观察结果;(观察后发表的)言论(observation的复数形式)variability:n.可变性,变化性;生物数变异性As you get towards the 1970s,things are going to start tochange.然後時間接近 1970 年代 事情開始有了變化09:53Theyre going to start to look more similar,and by the timeyou get to the 2000s,youre already seeing th

46、e patterns ofglobal warming,both in the observations and in the model.它們開始看起來愈來愈接近 而到了 2000 年代 你已經可以看到全球暖化的型態 觀察及模式預測兩者皆是09:58We know what happened over the 20th century.我們知道二十世紀發生了什麼10:08Right?We know that its gotten warmer.對吧？我們知道一定會更熱10:10We know where its gotten warmer.我們還知道哪裡一定會更熱10:12And if yo

47、u ask the models why did that happen,and you say,okay,well,yes,basically its because of the carbon dioxidewe put into the atmosphere.如果你問模式為什麼這種情形會發生 然後你說,對,嗯,沒錯 基本上就是因為二氧化碳 我們把它排放到大氣層10:13We have a very good match up until the present day.我們的匹配度 到今天為止都很高10:22But theres one key reason why we look at

48、 models,and thatsbecause of this phrase here.但我們為什麼要看模式有個關鍵的理由 而那就是因為這句話10:26Because if we had observations of the future,we obviouslywould trust them more than models,But unfortunately,observations of the future are not available at this time.因為假設我們能直接觀察未來,與其相信模式,我們顯然會更相信觀察數據。但不幸的是 對未來的觀察目前行不通。10:3

49、2So when we go out into the future,theres a difference.所以當我們預測未來就會產生差異10:45dioxide:n.二氧化物 match up:使相配,使协调The future is unknown,the future is uncertain,and there arechoices.未來是未知的;未來是不確定的 但我們有選擇10:48Here are the choices that we have.以下是我們的選擇10:53We can do some work to mitigate the emissions of carbo

50、ndioxide into the atmosphere.我們能做點什麼以減少 二氧化碳排放入大氣層10:55Thats the top one.這是最重要的11:00We can do more work to really bring it down so that by theend of the century,its not much more than there is now.我們還能做更多 以真正減少排放量 所以到了本世紀末 排放量不會比現在更多11:02Or we can just leave it to fate and continue on with abusiness