NicholasNegroponte_2014[尼葛洛庞帝][未来的30年历史].pdf

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1、www.XiYuS锡育软件(Video)Nicholas Negroponte:Can we switch to the videodisc,which is in play mode?而未来的电视 播放模式是什么？00:12Im really interested in how you put people and computerstogether.我对于你如何把人和和电脑放在一起非常感兴趣。00:17We will be using the TV screens or their equivalents forelectronic books of the future.来当做未来的书籍

2、。00:22(Music,crosstalk)Very interested in touch-sensitive displays,high-tech,high-touch,not having to pick up your fingers touse them.（音乐,电信频道之间的串话干扰）对于触摸屏幕,高科技,高触感,不需要拿起手指就可以操纵它们。00:30There is another way where computers touch people:wearing,physically wearing.有另外一种方式电脑和人可以相互接触 穿戴高科技的物品。00:56Sudden

3、ly on September 11th,the world got bigger.突然,在 9 月 11 日。世界变大了。01:08NN:Thank you.(Applause)Thank you.谢谢。（掌声）谢谢01:13When I was asked to do this,I was also asked to look at all 14TED Talks that I had given,chronologically.当我被请来做这个的时候。我还被要求观看 14个 TED 演讲 这些演讲 都是按时间顺序的。01:18The first one was actually two

4、hours.第一个有两小时。01:28The second one was an hour,and then they became halfhours,and all I noticed was my bald spot getting bigger.第二个有两小时,接着变成了半个小时,我还注意到了我的秃顶越来越严重了。01:30switch to:v.切换到;转到;转变成 disc:n.圆盘,电子唱片(等于disk)/vt.灌唱片 equivalents:n.化学当量(equivalent的复数);同等设备;等同物 touch-sensitive:adj.相当敏感的;快速反应的 high-

5、tech:adj.高科技的,高技术的;仿真技术的/n.高科技chronologically:adv.按年代地 bald:adj.秃顶的;光秃的;单调的;无装饰的/vi.变秃(Laughter)Imagine seeing your life,30 years of it,go by,andit was,to say the least,for me,quite a shocking experience.（笑声）想象你看到你30年的是如何经过的,至少对于我来说 是非常震惊的一次经历。01:37So what Im going to do in my time is try and share

6、with youwhat happened during the 30 years,and then also make aprediction,and then tell you a little bit about what Im doingnext.在这次的演讲中呢 我将与你们分享 这三十年发生了什么,并且对未来做一个预知,还告诉你们 我将要做的一些事情。01:50And I put on a slide where TED 1 happened in my life.我把我第一次 TED 演讲发生的时间,标注在了PPT 里。02:03And its rather important b

7、ecause I had done 15 years ofresearch before it,so I had a backlog,so it was easy.这是非常重要的 因为在那次演讲之前我做了 15年的调查,我有自己的知识储备,所以并不难。02:10Its not that I was Fidel Castro and I could talk for two hours,or Bucky Fuller.不是因为我是菲德尔卡斯特罗,或是 富勒巴基 可以说上两个小时。02:18I had 15 years of stuff,and the Media Lab was about to

8、 start.是因为我有 15 年的经验积累,并且媒体实验室在那时也即将开始。02:23So that was easy.这才是简单的原因。02:27But there are a couple of things about that period and aboutwhat happened that are really quite important.但是在那个时期,发生的事情。这些发生的事 是非常重要的。02:29One is that it was a period when computers werent yet forpeople.其中一个就是 那是一个当电脑 还没有普及的时

9、代。02:37go by:经过;顺便走访;凭判断 prediction:n.预报;预言 backlog:n.管理积压的工作;积压待办的事务;大木材/vt.储备;把积压起来 Fuller:n.漂洗工;套柄铁锤And the other thing that sort of happened during that timeis that we were considered sissy computer scientists.还有一件在那个时期左右 发生的事情是 我们被认作为毫无价值的电脑科学家。02:45We werent considered the real thing.我们不被关注。02

10、:55So what Im going to show you is,in retrospect,a lot moreinteresting and a lot more accepted than it was at the time.所以我要向你们展示的是 一个更加有趣 更加被接受的东西。02:57So Im going to characterize the years and Im even going togo back to some very early work of mine,and this was the我将要要描述的 我那时的一些 工作成果,这就是一些我在 60 年代研

11、究的技术;直接控制电脑,在我学习摩西萨夫迪的建筑学时 那是非常有影响力的,TED演讲者：Nicholas Negroponte|尼葛洛庞帝演讲标题：A 30-year history of the future|未来的30年历史内容概要：MIT Media Lab founder Nicholas Negroponte takes you on a journey through the last30 years of tech.The consummate predictor highlights interfaces and innovations he foresaw inthe 197

12、0s and 1980s that were scoffed at then but are ubiquitous today.And he leaves you withone last(absurd?brilliant?)prediction for the coming 30 years.MIT 媒体实验室的创始人尼古拉斯 内格罗蓬特带你走上一个游览历史 30 年科技发展的旅程。这个完美的语言者强调了他在 20 世纪的 70 和 80 年代所看到的那些当时被忽略却现在普及生活的操作界面和发明创兴。他还给你留下了对于未来 30 年的一个预测。go back to some very ear

13、ly work of mine,and this was thekind of stuff I was doing in the 60s:very directmanipulation,very influenced as I studied architecture bythe architect Moshe Safdie,and you can see that we evenbuilt robotic things that could build habitat-like structures.学习摩西萨夫迪的建筑学时 那是非常有影响力的,你还可以看到我们甚至建造 可以建造栖息环境类似

14、结构的机器类东西。03:05And this for me was not yet the Media Lab,but was thebeginning of what Ill call sensory computing,and I pickfingers partly because everybody thought it was ridiculous.但这对于我来说 还不算是媒体实验室,但这是我将要称作为 感官计算的雏形,我选择手指 部分原因是因为所有人都认为这是荒唐的。03:27sissy:n.胆小鬼;胆小无用的男子;女人气的男人/adj.女人气的,娘娘腔的;柔弱的 retrospe

15、ct:n.回顾,追溯/vi.回顾,追溯;回想/vt.回顾;追忆 manipulation:n.操纵;操作;处理;篡改 influenced:adj.受影响的/v.影响(influence的过去分词)robotic:adj.机器人的,像机器人的;自动的/n.机器人学 not yet:还没有,还没 sensory:adj.感觉的;知觉的;传递感觉的 ridiculous:adj.可笑的；荒谬的Papers were published about how stupid it was to usefingers.关于使用手指控制是多么愚蠢的 论文被发表。03:41Three reasons:One

16、was they were low-resolution.有三个原因;第一个是因为低分辨率。03:47The other is your hand would occlude what you wanted tosee,and the third,which was the winner,was that yourfingers would get the screen dirty,and hence,fingers wouldnever be a device that youd use.其次是手指会挡住 你想要看的,第三个,也是这三个之中最重要的,你的手指会弄脏屏幕,因此手指将永不会是你要

17、使用的设备。03:50And this was a device we built in the 70s,which has nevereven been picked up.这是一个我们在 70 年代建造的设备,但从未再继续被继续建造。04:03Its not just touch sensitive,its pressure sensitive.这不是触摸感应,而是压敏感应。04:08(Video)Voice:Put a yellow circle there.（视频）声音;在哪里放一个黄色的圈。04:12NN:Later work,and again this was before TE

18、D 1?尼古拉斯 内格罗蓬特;这是之后的研究,但仍然在TED 1 之前04:14(Video)Voice:Move that west of the diamond.尼古拉斯 内格罗蓬特;把那移到菱形西边。04:17Create a large green circle there.在那里画一个大的绿色圆圈。04:20Man:Aw,shit.男人;哦,该死。04:23NN:?was to sort of do interface concurrently,so when youtalked and you pointed and you had,if you will,multiplechan

19、nels.尼古拉斯 内格罗蓬特;这就像多界面的同时操控,当你说的同时你指向某一点 这也就是 多通道感应。04:25Entebbe happened.恩德培发生过一企事件。04:351976,Air France was hijacked,taken to Entebbe,and theIsraelis not only did an extraordinary rescue,they did itpartly because they had practiced on a physical model of theairport,because they had built the airpo

20、rt,so they built amodel in the desert,and when they arrived at Entebbe,theyknew where to go because they had actually been there.在 1974 年,法国航空被劫机,被带到恩德培,以色列人不仅进行了一次完美的救援,因为他们 在实际模型上排练过,因为他们造了这个机场,在沙漠里建造了一个模型 当他们到达恩德培时,他们知道该往哪里走,因为他们在模型里演练过。04:37occlude:vt.使闭塞;封闭;挡住/vi.咬合 concurrently:adv.兼;同时发生地 hij

21、acked:劫持/强行控制 practiced:adj.熟练的;有经验的;老练的(等于practised)The U.S.government asked some of us,76,if we couldreplicate that computationally,and of course somebody likemyself says yes.在 76 年美国政府问我们中的一些人 我们是否可以以电脑的方式复制出那个东西,像我这样的人肯定是说了可以。05:00Immediately,you get a contract,Department of Defense,andwe built

22、this truck and this rig.立刻你便得到一份合同,防御部门,我们之后便造了这个卡车和其配备。05:08We did sort of a simulation,because you had video discs,and again,this is 76.我们大概的做了模拟测试,因为你有视频碟片,而且这仍然还是 76 年的事。05:14And then many years later,you get this truck,and so youhave Google Maps.在过了些年,就有了这个货车,和谷歌地图。05:21Still people thought,no,

23、that was not serious computerscience,and it was a man named Jerry Wiesner,whohappened to be the president of MIT,who did think it wascomputer science.但仍有人们想 那不算是严谨的电脑科学,但是恰好MIT 的校长 杰里威斯纳 相信这是电脑科学。05:28And one of the keys for anybody who wants to startsomething in life:Make sure your president is par

24、t of it.一个人想在 生活中做出点成就的关键 是确保你的校长支持你。05:40So when I was doing the Media Lab,it was like having agorilla in the front seat.当我开始媒体实验室的时候,感觉就像坐在前排的大猩猩。05:49If you were stopped for speeding and the officer looked inthe window and saw who was in the passenger seat,then,Oh,continue on,sir.如果我们因为超速被拦截 交警向车

25、窗内看 看到了座位里坐的是谁的时候,他会说;“哦,请您继续开吧。”05:56replicate:vt.复制;折叠/vi.重复;折转/adj.复制的;折叠的/n.复制品;八音阶间隔的反覆音 computationally:putational(adj.计算的;计算机的)的变形 simulation:n.仿真;模拟;模仿;假装 discs:n.磁盘(disc的复数)gorilla:n.大猩猩And so we were able,and this is a cute,actually,device,因此我们就可以这样去做,这也确实是一个非常可爱的设备。06:04And so we were abl

26、e,and this is a cute,actually,device,parenthetically.爱的设备。06:04This was a lenticular photograph of Jerry Wiesner where theonly thing that changed in the photograph were the lips.这是杰里威斯纳的透镜照片 照片里唯一能够变化的是 是他的嘴唇。06:09So when you oscillated that little piece of lenticular sheetwith his photograph,it wou

27、ld be in lip sync with zerobandwidth.当你振荡那小小的 一片透镜时,进行同步06:16It was a zero-bandwidth teleconferencing system at thetime.这是当时零带宽 的一个远程会议系统。06:27So this was the Media Labs?this is what we said wed do,that the world of computers,publishing,and so on wouldcome together.这是我们的媒体实验室,这也是我们说的所要做的,电脑,出版等不同的领域

28、 将会融合到一起。06:31www.XiYuS锡育软件Again,not generally accepted,but very much part of TED inthe early days.虽然再一次没有被广泛接受,但是早期TED大会的一个重要部分。06:42And this is really where we were headed.这也是我们那时真正迈进的。06:49And that created the Media Lab.也就是创建媒体实验室的初衷。06:52One of the things about age is that I can tell you with gr

29、eatconfidence,Ive been to the future.关于年代 我可以自信的告诉你 我去过未来。06:54parenthetically:adv.附带说明地;作为插入成分地;顺便说一句 lenticular:adj.透镜的;晶状体的;两面凸的;小扁豆似的oscillated:vt.使振荡;使振动;使动摇/vi.振荡;摆动;犹豫 sync:n.同步,同时/vi.同时发生/vt.使同步 bandwidth:n.电子物带宽;通信频带宽度 teleconferencing:adj.电话会议的/v.举行或参加电话会议(teleconference的ing形式)Ive been the

30、re,actually,many times.实际上我去过那里很多次。07:05And the reason I say that is,how many times in my life have Isaid,Oh,in 10 years,this will happen,我这样说的原因是 我在一生中说过太多“哦,在10 年内,这个会成为现实的,”07:08and then 10 years comes.十年过去后。07:14And then you say,Oh,in five years,this will happen.然后你说;“哦,在 5 年内这会成为现实的。”07:16And t

31、hen five years comes.五年又过去了。07:18So I say this a little bit with having felt that Id been there anumber of times,and one of the things that is most quotedthat Ive ever said is that computing is not about computers,and that didnt quite get enough traction,and then itstarted to.我这样说是因为我稍稍感到 我已经去过那里几次了

32、,我所说的 最频繁被人们所引用的是 电脑计算不仅仅是关于电脑,但那时没有引起人们的太多注意,但之后便开始了。07:20It started to because people caught on that the mediumwasnt the message.它的开始是因为人们认识到 媒体不是信息。07:38And the reason I show this car in actually a rather ugly slide isjust again to tell you the kind of story that characterized alittle bit of my l

33、ife.我向你展示这辆车 在这不美观的图片中 是为了再次告诉你 能够描述我生活的一个故事。07:45This is a student of mine who had done a Ph.D.calledBackseat Driver.这是我的一个学生 他完成了一个叫做“后座驾驶者”的博士任务。07:55quoted:v.引证(quote的过去式)traction:n.牵引;机车辆牵引力 characterized:adj.以为特点的 Backseat Driver:指手划脚的人It was in the early days of GPS,the car knew where it was,

34、andit would give audio instructions to the driver,when to turnright,when to turn left and so on.那时是GPS初生的时代,车子知道其位置,他回向驾驶者提出指令 什么时候右转,或什么时候左转,等等。08:01Turns out,there are a lot of things in those instructions thatback in that period were pretty challenging,like what does itmean,take the next right?在那

35、时 很多那些指令 否是非常具有挑战性的,比如;之后右转是代表什么意思？08:10Well,if youre coming up on a street,the next rightsprobably the one after,and there are lots of issues,and thestudent did a wonderful thesis,and the MIT patent officesaid Dont patent it.如果你来到一个街口,下一个右转也许指的是再下一个右边,这是有非常多问题的,这个学生做了一个非常好的课题,然而 MIT 的专利处说;“不要申请这项专利

36、。08:19Itll never be accepted.他永远不会通过。08:31The liabilities are too large.因为设计责任会很大。08:33There will be insurance issues.会有保险问题。08:35Dont patent it.不要申请专利。“08:37So we didnt,but it shows you how people,again,at times,dont really look at whats happening.我们便没有申请,这再一次展示了人们 看不清眼前正在发生的事。08:38Some work,and Il

37、l just go through these very quickly,a lotof sensory stuff.有不少事可以说,我在这里快速的过一下,有很多比较敏感的话题。08:47thesis:n.论文；论点 patent:vt.授予专利;取得的专利权/adj.专利的;新奇的;显然的/n.专利权;执照;专利品 liabilities:n.会计负债;债务(liability复数形式);碍事的人或物 at times:有时;偶尔You might recognize a young Yo-Yo Ma and tracking his你可能认出年轻的马友友（大提琴演奏家）并跟You migh

38、t recognize a young Yo-Yo Ma and tracking hisbody for playing the cello or the hypercello.踪他身体 演奏提琴的动作。08:52These fellows literally walked around like that at the time.那些人在那时候像是这样走路的。09:01Its now a little bit more discreet and more commonplace.现在便变得有些 松散和正常了。09:05And then there are at least three he

39、roes I want to quicklymention.现在我想想你们介绍 三位英雄。09:09Marvin Minsky,who taught me a lot about common sense,and I will talk briefly about Muriel Cooper,who was veryimportant to Ricky Wurman and to TED,and in fact,whenshe got onstage,she said,the first thing she said was,Iintroduced Ricky to Nicky.马文明斯基,他

40、教了我很多 关于常识的知识,我再来简单介绍一下穆里尔库珀,她对瑞奇吴曼和TED 都很重要 而且事实上当她上舞台时 她说的第一句话是”我向尼基介绍瑞奇。“09:13And nobody calls me Nicky and nobody calls Richard Ricky,so nobody knew who she was talking about.从未有人叫过我尼基,也没有人把理查德叫做瑞奇,所以人们都不知道她在说什么。09:30And then,of course,Seymour Papert,who is the person whosaid,You cant think abou

41、t thinking unless you think aboutthinking about something.然后,西摩帕尔特 那个说过“你不能去思考什么是思考,除非你想去思考某个事情。“的人。09:37Yo-Yo:n.溜溜球(一种线轴般的玩具);优柔寡断/adj.上下起落的;摇摆不定的/vi.摇摆不定;上下起落 cello:n.大提琴 fellows:n.研究员;伙伴们(fellow的复数形式)discreet:adj.谨慎的；小心的 briefly:adv.短暂地;简略地;暂时地 Cooper:vi.箍桶;修桶/n.制桶工人;修桶匠/vt.箍桶;制桶 onstage:adj.台上的;

42、台上演出的/adv.上台;上场And thats actually?you can unpack that later.事实上待会你就明白什么意思了。09:45Its a pretty profound statement.这是一个相当深奥的说法。09:51Im showing some slides that were from TED 2,a little silly asslides,perhaps.我正在展示的是一些 看起来也许有些傻。09:55Then I felt television really was about displays.那时我真的感觉电视就是关于屏幕。10:02A

43、gain,now were past TED 1,but just around the time of TED2,and what Id like to mention here is,even though youcould imagine intelligence in the device,现在是在 TED 1 之后,在 TED 2 发生前后,我想要提到的是,即使你可以想象 设备里的智能,10:08I look today at some of the work being done about theInternet of Things,and I think its kind of

44、 tragically pathetic,because what has happened is people take the oven paneland put it on your cell phone,or the door key onto your cellphone,just taking it and bringing it to you,and in fact thatsactually what you dont want.现在我看看 互联网上的东西,我觉得真的是非常悲剧,因为正在发生的是 人们将烤箱面板放到了手机上,或是将要是放到了手机上,直接把它带给你,但事实上那不是

45、你们想要的。10:20You want to put a chicken in the oven,and the oven says,Aha,its a chicken,当你想把一只鸡放在烤箱里时,烤箱说;”啊哈,这是只鸡。“10:40and it cooks the chicken.然后便开始烹饪。10:44Oh,its cooking the chicken for Nicholas,and he likes it thisway and that way.”哦,他在为尼古拉斯烧鸡,他喜欢这样那样的烹调方式。“10:45unpack:vt.卸下;解除的负担/vi.打开包裹 tragical

46、ly:adv.悲剧地;悲惨地 pathetic:adj.可怜的，悲哀的；感伤的；乏味的So the intelligence,instead of being in the device,we havestarted today to move it back onto the cell phone or closer tothe user,not a particularly enlightened view of the Internetof Things.这样一来我们现在开始将智能,并非实体的存在物移回到手机上 和使用者更近,但这并不是一个互联网内 非有启发性的东西。10:49Telev

47、ision,again,television what I said today,that was backin 1990,and the television of tomorrow would looksomething like that.电视,我今天所说的电视 那是在1990年的时候,而未来的电视 可能会像是这样。11:03Again,people,but they laughed cynically,they didnt laughwith much appreciation.然而那时人们讽刺的笑了 不带任何的欣赏。11:13Telecommunications in the 199

48、0s,George Gilder decidedthat he would call this diagram the Negroponte switch.在 20 世纪 90 年代,乔治 吉尔德决定叫这个示意图为 内格罗蓬特开关。11:22Im probably much less famous than George,so when hecalled it the Negroponte switch,it stuck,but the idea ofthings that came in the ground would go in the air and stuffin the air w

49、ould go into the ground has played itself out.也许我远没有乔治有名,所以当他把这个叫做内格罗蓬特开关时,就没有什么变动了,但是这东西的主意 在地上和空中 漂浮不定 已经将自己展示出来了。11:32That is the original slide from that year,and it has worked inlockstep obedience.这是当年的原始PPT,而且一直都因循守旧地运行着。11:46enlightened:adj.开明的;文明的;进步的;被启发的/v.启迪(enlighten的过去式)cynically:adv.爱嘲

50、笑地;冷笑地Telecommunications:n.通讯行业：服务类型变更，缴纳话费，账户总览等所有业务均可通过移动设备完成 much less:更不用说;不及 lockstep:n.因循守旧;密集连锁的步伐;步伐一致 obedience:n.顺从;服从;遵守We started Wired magazine.我们发行了千奇百怪杂志。11:54Some people,I remember we shared the reception deskperiodically,and some parent called up irate that his sonhad given up Sport