AnneMilgram_2013S[安妮．米尔格拉姆][为什么统计是打击犯罪的关键].pdf

《AnneMilgram_2013S[安妮．米尔格拉姆][为什么统计是打击犯罪的关键].pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《AnneMilgram_2013S[安妮．米尔格拉姆][为什么统计是打击犯罪的关键].pdf（6页珍藏版）》请在淘文阁 - 分享文档赚钱的网站上搜索。

1、www.XiYuS锡育软件In 2007,I became the attorney general of the state of NewJersey.2007年時,我成為紐澤西州 總檢察長。00:12Before that,Id been a criminal prosecutor,first in theManhattan district attorneys office,and then at the UnitedStates Department of Justice.在那之前,我擔任刑事檢察官,一開始在曼哈頓區檢察官辦公室,後來在美國司法部。00:17But when I bec

2、ame the attorney general,two thingshappened that changed the way I see criminal justice.但是當我成為總檢察長後,發生了兩件事,改變我對刑事司法的看法。00:24The first is that I asked what I thought were really basicquestions.第一件事是我提出了一些我認為 很基本的問題。00:30I wanted to understand who we were arresting,who we werecharging,and who we were

3、putting in our nations jails andprisons.我想了解我們逮捕誰、控告誰、以及把誰關進我國的拘留所 和監獄。00:35I also wanted to understand if we were making decisions in away that made us safer.我也想了解 我們做決定的方式 是否能讓我們更安全。00:43And I couldnt get this information out.我找不出答案。00:48It turned out that most big criminal justice agencies like m

4、yown didnt track the things that matter.結果是多數的大型刑事司法機關,就像我工作的地方,沒有追蹤重要的事情。00:51So after about a month of being incredibly frustrated,Iwalked down into a conference room that was filled withdetectives and stacks and stacks of case files,and thedetectives were sitting there with yellow legal pads taki

5、ngnotes.因此歷經大約一個月的強烈挫折感後,我走進一間會議室,裡面擠滿警探 和堆積如山的案件資料,警探坐在那,手拿黃色標準便條紙在做筆記。00:58prosecutor:n.检察官;公诉人;法起诉人;实行者 charging:n.炉料;装料/v.使承担(任务等);装载;命令(charge的现在分词)jails:n.监狱;监牢;拘留所/vt.监禁;下狱 in a way:在某种程度上;有点儿;十分激动 agencies:n.代理;代理处(agency的复数)frustrated:adj.失意的,挫败的;泄气的/v.挫败;阻挠(frustrate的过去式和过去分词形式)conference:

6、n.会议;讨论;协商;联盟;(正式)讨论会;工会,工党用语(每年的)大会/vi.举行或参加(系列)会议 detectives:adj.侦探的/n.侦探 stacks:n.堆叠;图情书库(stack的复数);进程堆栈应用 pads:n.机衬垫(pad的复数);波纹细丝带,眼镜丝带/v.填塞;拉长;使声音低沉(pad的第三人称单数)They were trying to get the information I was looking for bygoing through case by case for the past five years.他們試圖得到我在找的資訊,逐一檢視 過去五年的案

7、件。01:12And as you can imagine,when we finally got the results,theywerent good.如你所料,最後得到的結果不太好。01:19It turned out that we were doing a lot of low-level drug caseson the streets just around the corner from our office inTrenton.結論是我們辦了 很多低階的街頭毒品案件,就在附近的街上,離我們在翠登的辦公室不遠。01:23The second thing that happene

8、d is that I spent the day in theCamden,New Jersey police department.第二件發生的事情是 我在紐澤西肯頓警局待的那一天。01:30Now,at that time,Camden,New Jersey,was the mostdangerous city in America.那時候紐澤西州肯頓 是全美最危險的城市,01:35I ran the Camden Police Department because of that.這是我去肯頓警局的原因。01:40I spent the day in the police depart

9、ment,and I was taken intoa room with senior police officials,all of whom were workinghard and trying very hard to reduce crime in Camden.我在警局待一整天,被帶到一間房間,和資深警官在一起,他們都很努力 試著降低肯頓的犯罪率。01:44And what I saw in that room,as we talked about how toreduce crime,were a series of officers with a lot of littleye

10、llow sticky notes.當我們討論如何降低犯罪率時,我在那房裡看到 一大堆警官拿著 很多黃色的小型便利貼。01:54And they would take a yellow sticky and they would writesomething on it and they would put it up on a board.他們拿著一張黃色?在上面寫點東西,把它貼在公布欄上。02:01low-level:adj.低水平的;低级别的 sticky:adj.粘的；粘性的And one of them said,We had a robbery two weeks ago.其中一位

11、會說:兩個星期前有搶案。02:06TED演讲者：Anne Milgram|安妮米尔格拉姆演讲标题：Why smart statistics are the key to fighting crime|为什么统计是打击犯罪的关键内容概要：When she became the attorney general of New Jersey in 2007,Anne Milgram quicklydiscovered a few startling facts:not only did her team not really know who they were putting injail,but

12、 they had no way of understanding if their decisions were actually making the publicsafer.And so began her ongoing,inspirational quest to bring data analytics and statisticalanalysis to the US criminal justice system.安妮米尔格拉姆在 2007 年成为纽泽西州总檢察长时，她随即发现一些惊人的事情:她的团队不只是不太清楚他们把谁关在牢里，他们也无法了解自己做的决定是否能提升公共安全。

13、因此她开始提出一连串鼓舞人心的请求，并将数据逻辑分析和统计分析运用在美国刑事司法体系之中。We have no suspects.沒有嫌犯。02:08And another said,We had a shooting in this neighborhoodlast week.We have no suspects.另一位說:上星?有槍擊案。沒有嫌犯。02:10We werent using data-driven policing.我們沒有運用任何數據處理治安。02:15We were essentially trying to fight crime with yellow Post-i

14、tnotes.基本上,我們打算用黃色便利貼 來打擊犯罪。02:18Now,both of these things made me realize fundamentallythat we were failing.這兩件事讓我了解 我們徹底失敗了。02:22We didnt even know who was in our criminal justice system,we didnt have any data about the things that mattered,andwe didnt share data or use analytics or tools to help u

15、s makebetter decisions and to reduce crime.我們甚至不知道誰?我們的刑事司法體系裡,我們沒有重要資料的數據,也沒有共享數據、運用分析或工具來幫助我們做更好的決定,並減少犯罪。02:28And for the first time,I started to think about how we madedecisions.我第一次思考 我們是如何做決定。02:41When I was an assistant D.A.,and when I was a federalprosecutor,I looked at the cases in front of

16、 me,and Igenerally made decisions based on my instinct and myexperience.我擔任地區助理檢察官 和聯邦檢察官,研究眼前的案件時,幾乎都是靠直覺 和經驗做決定。02:45data-driven:adj.依照数据处理的 policing:n.流量监管,监控;维持治安,整顿 mattered:n.物质;原因;事件/vi.有关系;要紧analytics:n.化学数分析学;解析学When I became attorney general,I could look at the systemas a whole,and what su

17、rprised me is that I found that thatwas exactly how we were doing it across the entire system-in police departments,in prosecutorss offices,in courts andin jails.當我成為總檢察長,能夠全面檢視體制,讓我驚訝的是發現了 我們就是那樣做,整個體制都是如此 在警察局、檢察署、法院和監獄。02:54And what I learned very quickly is that we werent doing agood job.很快我就了解

18、我們做得不好,03:09So I wanted to do things differently.於是就想用不同的方式做事。03:14I wanted to introduce data and analytics and rigorousstatistical analysis into our work.我想把數據、邏輯分析 和精密統計分析 運用到工作上。03:16In short,I wanted to moneyball criminal justice.簡而言之,我想用 魔球的方式處理刑事司法。03:22Now,moneyball,as many of you know,is wha

19、t the OaklandAs did,where they used smart data and statistics to figureout how to pick players that would help them win games,如在座許多人所知,魔球是奧克蘭運動?所運用的策略,他們用數據和統計 找出選擇球員的方法 去幫助球隊贏球,03:25and they went from a system that was based on baseballscouts who used to go out and watch players and use theirinstin

20、ct and experience,the scouts instincts and experience,to pick players,from one to use smart data and rigorousstatistical analysis to figure out how to pick players thatwould help them win games.他們從前根據棒球球探意見,球探會出門去看球員,然後以直覺和經驗,球探的直覺和經驗,去挑選球員,從運用 數據和精密統計分析 找出要怎麼選出能讓他們贏得比賽的球員。03:34as a whole:总的来说 prose

21、cutors:n.检查官;告发者(prosecutor的复数)rigorous:adj.严格的，严厉的；严密的；严酷的statistical:adj.统计的;统计学的 statistics:n.统计;统计学;统计统计资料 scouts:n.童子军,童军(scout的复数);侦察兵/v.侦察;搜索(scout的三单形式)instincts:n.生物本能(instinct的复数);心理直觉It worked for the Oakland As,and it worked in the state ofNew Jersey.對奧克蘭運動家隊奏效了,對紐澤西州也奏效了。03:50We took Ca

22、mden off the top of the list as the mostdangerous city in America.我們讓肯頓不再名列 美國最危險城市之一。03:54We reduced murders there by 41 percent,which actuallymeans 37 lives were saved.我們把當地兇殺案減少了 41%,意謂著救了 37 條人命。03:58And we reduced all crime in the city by 26 percent.我們將城裡各種犯罪活動減少了 26%。04:04We also changed the w

23、ay we did criminal prosecutions.我們也改變刑事訴訟的方式,04:08So we went from doing low-level drug crimes that wereoutside our building to doing cases of statewide importance,on things like reducing violence with the most violentoffenders,prosecuting street gangs,gun and drugtrafficking,and political corruption

24、.從處理低階的毒品犯罪,那些發生在我們的大樓外,轉變為遍及全州的重要案件,像是減少高度危險暴力犯的再犯率、起訴街頭幫派、槍枝和毒品運送,以及政治貪汙。04:11And all of this matters greatly,because public safety to me isthe most important function of government.這一切帶來的影響甚大,因為公共安全對我來說 是政府最重要的功能。04:26If were not safe,we cant be educated,we cant be healthy,we cant do any of the o

25、ther things we want to do in our lives.如果我們不安全,我們就無法接受教育,就無法擁有健康,我們就無法做所有生活中想做的事。04:33prosecutions:n.起诉,检举;进行;经营 statewide:adj.遍及全州的/遍及全州地 offenders:n.罪犯(offender的复数);冒犯者prosecuting:v.起诉;进行(prosecute的ing形式);实行 gangs:n.帮派(gang的复数)/v.成帮结伙;合伙行动(gang的三单形式)And we live in a country today where we face ser

26、ious criminaljustice problems.今天我們居住的國家 正面對嚴重的刑事司法問題。04:39We have 12 million arrests every single year.我們每年有 1,200 萬件逮捕案。04:44The vast majority of those arrests are for low-level crimes,likemisdemeanors,70 to 80 percent.這些逮捕案最大部分的是 低階犯罪,像是輕罪,佔70%到 80%。04:48Less than five percent of all arrests are f

27、or violent crime.只有不到 5%的逮捕 是暴力犯罪。04:55Yet we spend 75 billion,thats b for billion,dollars a year onstate and local corrections costs.然而我們花費 750 億美元,是百億元,在州和地方一年的懲治支出上。04:58Right now,today,we have 2.3 million people in our jails andprisons.現在,我們有 230 萬人 在監獄和拘留所。05:06And we face unbelievable public s

28、afety challenges becausewe have a situation in which two thirds of the people in ourjails are there waiting for trial.我們面對難以致信的公安問題 因為面對的處境是拘留所內三分之二的嫌疑犯 正在等著審判,05:11They havent yet been convicted of a crime.他們還沒被判有罪,05:20www.XiYuS锡育软件Theyre just waiting for their day in court.等著上法庭的那一天。05:22And 67 p

29、ercent of people come back.67%的嫌疑犯會回來。05:24Our recidivism rate is amongst the highest in the world.我們是全球累犯率最高的國家之一。05:28misdemeanors:n.轻罪 corrections:n.更正;修正法;更正启事(correction的复数形式)convicted:adj.证明有罪的;已被判刑的/v.定罪(convict的过去分词);证明有罪 recidivism:n.再犯,累犯Almost seven in 10 people who are released from pris

30、on willbe rearrested in a constant cycle of crime and incarceration.在監被釋放的人之?幾乎 10 個就有 7 個 會再次被逮捕,呈現不斷犯罪和監禁的循環。05:31So when I started my job at the Arnold Foundation,I cameback to looking at a lot of these questions,and I came backto thinking about how we had used data and analytics totransform the

31、way we did criminal justice in New Jersey.因此當我開始在阿諾德基金會工作,回頭來看這一大堆問題,回頭來思考 該如何使用數據和邏輯分析來轉變 我們在紐澤西刑事司法採取的方式。05:39And when I look at the criminal justice system in the UnitedStates today,I feel the exact same way that I did about thestate of New Jersey when I started there,which is that weabsolutely h

32、ave to do better,and I know that we can dobetter.當我檢視現今 美國的刑事司法體制時,我發現和當年在紐澤西起頭時 相同的情況,毫無疑問我們在那做得更好了,我也知道我們可以做得更好。05:51So I decided to focus on using data and analytics to helpmake the most critical decision in public safety,and thatdecision is the determination of whether,when someone hasbeen arres

33、ted,whether they pose a risk to public safety andshould be detained,or whether they dont pose a risk topublic safety and should be released.因此我決定著眼在 使用數據和邏輯分析,協助我們在公共安全中 做最重要的決定,而那個決定即是在某疑犯被逮捕時的判定,不管是他們危及公共安全 該被拘留,又或是他們沒有危及公共安全 而該被釋放。06:04Everything that happens in criminal cases comes out of thison

34、e decision.每件在刑事案件中發生的事 都來自於這個決定。06:24rearrested:vt.重新扣留;重新逮捕/n.重新扣留;重新拘捕 incarceration:n.监禁;下狱;禁闭 detained:v.被扣留,法扣留(detain的过去分词)It impacts everything.這個決定影響每一件事,06:27It impacts sentencing.影響每一個判決,06:29It impacts whether someone gets drug treatment.影響某疑犯是否接受藥物治療,06:30It impacts crime and violence.影

35、響暴力和犯罪。06:32And when I talk to judges around the United States,which Ido all the time now,they all say the same thing,which is thatwe put dangerous people in jail,and we let non-dangerous,nonviolent people out.當我和全美法官談話時,我現在常這麼做 他們都說一樣的話,那就是我們把危險人物關進牢裡,讓不危險、非暴力的人出來。06:34They mean it and they believe

36、 it.他們很認真,也深信不疑。06:47But when you start to look at the data,which,by the way,thejudges dont have,when we start to look at the data,what wefind time and time again,is that this isnt the case.但當你開始檢視數據,附帶一提的是,法官沒有看過數據,當我們開始檢視數據,就會一次又一次地發現 根本不是如此。06:49We find low-risk offenders,which makes up 50 percen

37、t ofour entire criminal justice population,we find that theyre injail.我們見到低風險犯人 佔了所有刑事司法總人數的一半,我們發現他們在坐牢。06:59Take Leslie Chew,who was a Texas man who stole fourblankets on a cold winter night.看看一個名為萊斯理的德州人,他在一個寒冷冬夜偷了四件毛毯。07:07He was arrested,and he was kept in jail on 3,500 dollars bail,an amount t

38、hat he could not afford to pay.他被逮捕,關在牢裡,保釋金為 3,500 美元,他繳不出保釋金,07:12impacts:n.影响(impact的复数);力冲击/v.压紧;冲撞;对产生不良影响(impact的三单形式)sentencing:n.量刑/v.宣判;判决(sentence的ing形式)nonviolent:adj.非暴力的/不使用暴力的 low-risk:adj.低危的,低风险的 blankets:n.毛毯;毯子(blanket的复数)And he stayed in jail for eight months until his case came u

39、pfor trial,at a cost to taxpayers of more than 9,000 dollars.因此留在牢裡八個月,直到案子開審,花費納稅人超過 9,000 美元。07:20And at the other end of the spectrum,were doing anequally terrible job.而在相反的那一端,我們做得一樣很糟。07:28The people who we find are the highest-risk offenders,thepeople who we think have the highest likelihood o

40、fcommitting a new crime if theyre released,we see nationallythat 50 percent of those people are being released.我們見到的是 高風險的犯人,我們認為這些人若被釋放,將會極有可能再次犯罪,這些人全國大概有一半 都被釋放了,07:33The reason for this is the way we make decisions.原因出自於我們做決定的方式。07:46Judges have the best intentions when they make thesedecisions

41、about risk,but theyre making them subjectively.當法官要做出關於風險的這些決定時,他們是出於好意,但是卻主觀地做出決定,07:49Theyre like the baseball scouts 20 years ago who were usingtheir instinct and their experience to try to decide what risksomeone poses.就像 20 年前的棒球球探,用直覺和經驗 嘗試裁定某人會造成什麼危險。07:55Theyre being subjective,and we know w

42、hat happens withsubjective decision making,which is that we are often wrong.他們主觀意識強,而我們知道主觀的?會帶來什麼結果,那就是我們經常會做錯。08:02taxpayers:n.纳税人(taxpayer的复数)spectrum:n.光谱；频谱；范围；余象 likelihood:n.可能性，可能 nationally:adv.全国性地;以国民立场地;举国一致地 subjectively:adv.主观地;臆想地;内省地 poses:姿势What we need in this space are strong data

43、 and analytics.我們在這裡需要的是 強而有力的數據和邏輯分析。08:09What I decided to look for was a strong data and analytic riskassessment tool,something that would let judges actuallyunderstand with a scientific and objective way what the riskwas that was posed by someone in front of them.我決定找出 強而有力的數據 和邏輯分析風險評估工具,透過科學和客

44、觀的方式 讓法官確實了解 他們面前的人 可能造成什麼風險。08:13I looked all over the country,and I found that between fiveand 10 percent of all U.S.jurisdictions actually use any typeof risk assessment tool,and when I looked at these tools,我檢視整個國家,發現美國的所有司法轄區之中 約有 5%到 10%確實使用某種型式的風險評估工具,當我研究這些工具,08:26I quickly realized why.很快就理

45、解事出何因。08:35They were unbelievably expensive to administer,they weretime-consuming,they were limited to the local jurisdictionin which theyd been created.這些工具管理起來貴得嚇人,耗費時間,而且只能限制在 他們所在的司法轄區。08:37So basically,they couldnt be scaled or transferred to otherplaces.基本上,他們無法擴大規模 或是移轉到其它地方。08:45So I went ou

46、t and built a phenomenal team of data scientistsand researchers and statisticians to build a universal riskassessment tool,so that every single judge in the UnitedStates of America can have an objective,scientific measure ofrisk.因此我建立了一個出色的團隊,和統計學家組成,來建立全面的風險評估工具,如此一來每一位美國法官 都可以擁有客觀、科學的風險測量。08:49ana

47、lytic:adj.分析的;解析的;善于分析的 assessment:n.评定;估价 posed:v.形成(pose的过去分词);摆姿势;主张;装模作样jurisdictions:n.司法管辖区;行政辖区(jurisdiction的复数)unbelievably:adv.难以置信地;不可信地 administer:vt.管理;执行;给予/vi.给予帮助;执行遗产管理人的职责;担当管理人 time-consuming:adj.耗时的;旷日持久的 jurisdiction:n.司法权,审判权,管辖权;权限,权力 scaled:adj.有鳞的;(房屋)栉比鳞次的;已去了鳞的/v.刮去鳞片;生鳞片(s

48、cale的过去式和过去分词)phenomenal:adj.现象的;显著的;异常的;能知觉的;惊人的,非凡的 statisticians:n.统计学家,统计员In the tool that weve built,what we did was we collected 1.5million cases from all around the United States,from cities,from counties,from every single state in the country,thefederal districts.在我們設計的工具中,我們搜集了 全美 150 萬個案件,

49、它們來自城市、郡市、來自全國每一個州、來自聯邦地區。09:05And with those 1.5 million cases,which is the largest data seton pretrial in the United States today,we were able tobasically find that there were 900-plus risk factors that wecould look at to try to figure out what mattered most.而這 150 萬個案件 是美國現今審判前 最大的資料組,基本上我們能找出 90

50、0 個以上的危險?我們可以從其中檢視,嘗試找出什麼是最重要的。09:16And we found that there were nine specific things thatmattered all across the country and that were the mosthighly predictive of risk.我們發現有特定的九件事 在全國各地都很重要,而那些是最容易看得出來的風險。09:30And so we built a universal risk assessment tool.我們建置出一套全面的風險評估工具,09:37And it looks like